Richmond Housing Today October 2012

The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1 www.RichmondHousingToday.com

Background

• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing
Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping
Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to
this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional
information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine
Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service
(CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in August 2012 for most of the graphs.
The Greater Richmond area is defined by Joyner Fine Properties as the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland
and Powhatan.


The National Market


The National Economy
Source: NAR

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of everyone’s income. It is adjusted for inflation.
Nominal GDP is the raw dollar figure not adjusted for inflation
Historically GDP grows by 3% per year. GDP is forecast to grow at less than 2% for 2012.


Payroll Job Changes
Source: NAR

Payroll jobs are based on figures reported by companies. 89,000 jobs were added in June. This is like treading water given the
3 million additional people in our country every year. We need to add approximately 100,000 new jobs every month to keep up
with our increase in population.


Unemployment Rate
Source: NAR

The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the labor force. The
unemployed people have to be looking for a job to be counted as being in the labor force.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at or near 8% for the rest of 2012 and to decrease slightly next year.


Labor Force Participation Rate
Source: NAR

Source: NAR

The labor Force participation Rate has been falling since the beginning of the Recession. Many went back to school or took
early retirement packages and are therefore no longer counted as part of the labor force. It is highly unusual for the labor force
participation rate to collapse so steeply since late 2008. There will be recent school graduates who will need to re-enter the
workforce as prolonged student loan borrowing is not sustainable.
If the labor force participation rate were to be normal (or if it had not fallen), then the corresponding unemployment rate would
be approximately 11%.


Job Losses During Post-WWII Recessions

Source: Keeping Current Matters

This graph shows job losses in every recession since the Great Depression. This recession has been longer and deeper than
any recession since the great depression. But employment is improving and there are signs of recovery. But unemployment is
still higher than the low point of all but 2 post depression recessions.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 Calculated Risk 2/3/2012
www.RichmondHousingToday.com

Pending Home Sales

105.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12

100.0

95.0

90.0

85.0

80.0

75.0
Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales after that but the number of
sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9 NAR 7/2012

Housing Starts
Source: NAR

Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per
year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of
the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also
happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line).
In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction
industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents.
Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many
smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013.


Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale

10.0
Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

NAR

House Prices

Home prices have started to recover in some markets. The composite 10 is the 10 largest US cities and the composite 20 is
the 20 largest cities.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12 S&P Indices 6/27/2012

Home Price Expectation Survey

As shown, home prices are expected to start rising next year nationwide although they have already starting rising in some
markets as indicated on the previous slide.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13 Home Price Expectation Survey 6/27/2012

Prices By State

FHFA 8/2012


Foreclosure Inventory

In millions as of April 2012

Foreclosures have a negative impact on home prices. As shown above, the number of people delinquent on their loans
(shown in red) is declining. Most delinquent loans become foreclosures. Also, the number of foreclosures in process (shown in
the dark and light blue) is declining.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15 CoreLogic 6/14/2012

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%

35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12

30%

25%

24%

20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16 NAR 8/2012

Highest Foreclosure Inventory


Housing Facts
Median Home Prices

UP 7.3%
rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs

Existing Distressed
-33%
Home Sales +8.6% Properties

Existing Mortgage
Inventory -24.4% - .86%
Rates
Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011

Housing Recovery Strengthening

Category Sales Prices
Existing Home Sales + 10.4% + 9.4%
Pending Sales + 12.4% N/A
New Construction + 25% -2.5%
Year-Over-Year Changes

NAR 8/2012

Greater Richmond
Housing Market

Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of
Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan.


Market Indicator #1:
The Number of Sales is
Up!!!


Number of Single Family House Sales by Year

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales
Number of Single Family

18000 15262 15533 16450 15074
House Sales

16000 12737 12644
14000
12000 9482 9069 8574 9051
10000 7636
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

00
2
00
3
00
4
00
5
00
6
00
7
00
8
00
9
01
0
01
1 1)
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10/
h ru
(T
2
201

Year
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12

The number of sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the
number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was significantly higher
than 2010 and indications are that 2012 sales will be even higher. 2011 sales were 5.5% higher than 2010.

Number of Single Family House Sales
by Month and Year
Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond By
Month and Year

2000
Number of Closed Sales

1800 2006
1600 2007
1400
1200 2008
1000 2009
800 2010
600
400 2011
200 2012
0

Aug
Apr

May

Jul
Jan

Jun

Oct
Mar

Nov

Dec
Feb

Sept
Month

This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales has been dropping every year from 2006 through 2010.
In the later part of 2011, sales started to increase Sales have continued to increase in 2012 have been higher than sales for the same
months in the past 3 years!! June 2012 sales were equivalent to June 2010 sales when we had a tax credit. And July sales were higher
than the past 4 years.

Sales by Month and Year

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and
Year

1300

1100
Number of Sales

2009
900 2010
700 2011
2012
500

300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Month


Sales By Year and Quarter
Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter
Sales by Year

4000
Number of First

3161
Quarter Sales

2892
3000
2088 1903
1612 1786
2000 1487

1000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12
Year
2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011.
Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter
Sales in the first quarter of 2012 Sales by Year
were higher than sales for the
4567
Number of Second

past 3 years. And sales in the 5000
3919
Quarter Sales

second quarter were higher than 4000 3013 3040
2910
2533 2622
3000
sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and
2000
2011 second quarters.. Note that
1000
there was a tax credit stimulus
0
that expired during the second 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
quarter of 2010 making sales Year
2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011.
then artificially high.

Third and Fourth Quarter Sales
Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
Number of Closed Sales

5000
4111
4000 3421 Source: CVRMLS Data 10/1/12
2692 2598
3000 2526 2496
1999
2000

1000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2012 is 4% higher than 2011. Year
Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in
Fourth Quarter by Year

3500 3222
Number of Sales

3000

2500 2362 2357
2123
2000 1847
1707

1500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year


New Construction

Closed Single Family New Homes by Quarter

350
Number of Closed New

300
250 2009
Homes

200 2010
150 2011
100 2012
50
0
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Quarter
Source: RAR

This graph shows the number of new single family closings by year and quarter. Not that 2012 in the green is higher in the first and
second quarter than 2011 (in the yellow).


Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
Number of Condominium

2500 2035
2000 1761 1757
1382
Sales

1500 1154 1093 1201
986
1000
500
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(Thru
10/1)

Year

In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in dark blue) were higher than
2009 and 2010 levels. And 2012 sales (shown in green) are on track to be even higher than 2011.


Condominium Sales By Month and Year

Greater Number of Closed Condominium Sales By
month and Year in Greater Richmond

250
Number of Closed

200 2006

150 2007
Sales

2008
100
2009
50 2010
0 2011

Nov
Oct

Dec
Jul
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug
Apr

May

Sept
Mar

2012
Month
Source: CVRMLS data

This graph shows sales by month and year. The number of sales dropped between 2006 and 2009. In the second half of 2011, sales
were higher than 2010. 2012 sales thru July have been higher than the past 3 years except for May and June 2010 when the tax credit
stimulus was ending.


Condominium Sales
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year

500
No of First Quarter

428
376
400 310
267 Source: CVRMLS data
Sales

300 242
190 189
200
100
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year
Greater Richmond Condominium Sales in Second
Quarter
The first quarter of 2012 had more
sales than the first quarter of the 800
Condominium

601
No of Closed

529
previous 3 years. The second quarter 600
420 431
Sales

389
344
of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 400 324

2009 second quarters. There was a 200
tax credit which ended in the second 0
quarter of 2010 so sales were 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

artificially stimulated. Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12


Third and Fourth Quarter Condominium Sales

Third Quarter Greater Richmond Condminium
Sales

800
Number of Sales

578
600 499
355 345 357
400 325 Source: CVRMLS data
219
200

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Greater Richmond Condominium and
Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter Sales
500 424
400 339
288 287
300 233 225
200
100
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year


Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales

Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater
Richmond

Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change
$0-$250,000 5585 6792 21.61%
$250,001-$500,000 2342 2585 10.38% In the Condominium market, Year over
$500,001-$750,000 397 435 9.57% Year number of sales by price point have
increased in all price points.
$750,001-$1,000,000 96 100 4.17%
$1,000,001+ 33 36 9.09%

In the single family marker, Year over Year number of
sales by price point have increased in all price points Number of Condominium Sales in Greater
with more dramatic increases in the lower price Richmond
points. As lower priced houses sell, people will start
moving up into the higher price points so we expect Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change
to see increase in the higher price point in the coming $0-$250,000 847 1042 23.02%
months.
$250,001-$500,000 251 291 15.94%
$500,001+ 13 24 84.62%

Inventory is Down!!!


Months Supply’s Impact on Price
Months Market Pricing

1-4 Sellers Appreciation

5-6 Even The Norm

7+ Buyers Depreciation


As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We are
currently almost at a normal market amount of inventory.

Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses

12.0
Months of Inventory

10.0
8.0 2010
6.0 2011
4.0 2012
2.0
0.0

v
n

n

l

c
g

p
r
ar
b

ct
ay

Ju
Ap

No
Ja

Ju

De
Au

Se
Fe

O
M

M

Month
Source: CVRMLS data

The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.
Inventory began to drop in 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. We are following a nationwide trend of declining
inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4392. A normal
market is 5-6 months of inventory.

Single Family Inventory by Price Range

Price Range Inventory (Months)
$0-$250,000 4.7
$250,001-$500,000 5.6
$500,001-$750,000 7.7
$750,001-$1,000,000 11.8
$1,000,001+ 17.0

The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up
to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still
challenges for Sellers at the higher price points.


Single Family Inventory by County

Inventory By County/City

12.0 10.1
10.0 8.6
Inventory

8.0 5.3 6.3 5.2
4.3 5.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Richmond

Richmond
Henrico

Goochland
Hanover

Chesterfield

Powhatan
City of

All
County

The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal
market. Areas that are further out have higher inventories.

Inventory of Condominiums

Inventory of Condominiums in Greater Richmond

12.0
Months of Inventory

10.0
8.0 2010
6.0 2011
4.0 2012
2.0
0.0

v
n

n

l

c
g

p
r
ar
b

ct
ay

Ju
Ap

No
Ja

Ju

De
Au

Se
Fe

O
M

M

Month
Source: CVRMLS data

The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond
and today there are 575.. The inventory in August of 2012 is 5 months less than in August of 2010. This is a sign of
recovery.

Prices appear to have
bottomed out and are rising
in some areas!!!


Single Family Average Sales Price By Month

Greater Richmond Single Family
Average Sales Price By Month

$350,000
Average Sales Price

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000
Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12
Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12

The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have nit the bottom and be rising. Prices rise every year during
the spring but they appear to be higher than last year.

Greater Richmond Single Family Price
Per Square Foot
Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
House Sales in Greater Richmond
Price Per Square Foot For

$150.00
$140.00
Closed Sales

$130.00
$120.00
$110.00
$100.00
$90.00
$80.00
Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Month

Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening.


Average Sales Price By Year for Single Family
House Sales in Greater Richmond

Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
For Closed House Sales By Year
Price Per Square Foot

$150 $135.82 $139.64 $132.43
$140
$130 $123.38
$117.82
$120 $112.24
$107.60 $104.98 $105.46
$110 $99.65
$100 $92.37
$90
$80

)
02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

/1
10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

ru
h
(T
12
20
Year Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12

The average price per square foot for single family sales in Greater Richmond for 2012 has been at 2004 levels. But price
per square foot for 2012 is higher than for 2011. There was a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.

Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
Greater Richmond Single Family
Price Per Square Foot by Quarter
$145.00
Price per Square Foot

$135.00
$125.00
$115.00
$105.00
$95.00
$85.00
$75.00
2007-01

2007-02

2007-03

2007-04

2008-01

2008-02

2008-03

2008-04

2009-01

2009-02

2009-03

2009-04

2010-01

2010-02

2010-03

2010-04

2011-01

2011-02

2011-03

2011-04

2012-01

2012-02

2012-03
Quarter

First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Sales Sales Sales Sales

When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in
2008, 09, 10 and 11. 12 is virtually equal to 11. Likewise, CVRMLS data
Source: the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 43
and 2012 is equal to 2011.

Year over Year Price Change for Single Family Homes

Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond
20.0%
14.7%
15.0%
10.1%
10.0% 7.9% 8.0%

5.0% 2.8%
0.5%
0.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-5.0%
-5.2% -4.7%
-10.0% -6.5%
-11.0%
-15.0%

Year over year price change shows that as 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this
graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.


2011 vs 2012 Prices By County
Price Change Between 2011 and 2012 by County

8.00% 5.64%
6.00%
4.00% 2.61%
Price Change

1.76% 1.48%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%

r
o

nd
d

-1.26%

n
ve

ld
ric
on

ta
fie
la
o
-4.00%

ha
en
hm

an

ch

er

w
H

H

oo

st
ic

Po
-6.00%

he
R

G
of

C
-8.00%
ity
C

-10.00% -8.89%
City/County

Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatan
still have some challenges.


Greater Richmond Average Condominium Sales Price

Average Sales Price for Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales By Month

$280,000
Average Sales Price

$260,000
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12
Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Month


Condominium Price Per Square Foot

Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales
in Greater Richmond

$170.00

$160.00
$150.00
$140.00
$130.00
$120.00
$110.00
$100.00
Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12
Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12

Price per square foot is a good indicator or prices. Notice that the highs and lows in price per square foot are about equal
to last year.

Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales By Year

Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By
Year
Price per Square Foot

$160 $149.49 $154.00 $152.70
$150 $133.49 $135.62 $131.55
$140
$130 $119.16$119.36
$113.32
$120
$110 $100.03
$100 $90.84
$90
$80
$70

00
2
00
3
00
4
00
5
00
6
00
7
00
8
00
9
01
0
01
1 1)
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10/
u
hr
(T
2
201

Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/11 Year

The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more
significantly, prices in 2012 are on average about the same as 2011 indicating that prices have bottomed out.
Prices are expected to start rising next year. Ther was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.

Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change
By Price Range (Single Family)

Single Family Price per Square Foot Change Condominium Price per Square Foot Change
in Greater Richmond in Greater Richmond

Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change Price Range 9/10-8/11 9/11-8/12 Change

$0-$250,000 $87.61 $86.32 -1.47% $0-$250,000 $111.38 $106.59 -4.30%

$250,001-$500,000 $121.35 $121.32 -0.02% $250,001-$500,000 $147.77 $149.72 1.32%

$500,001-$750,000 $152.91 $149.43 -2.28% $500,001+ $186.42 $190.58 2.23%

$750,001-$1,000,000 $181.85 $178.85 -1.65%

$1,000,001+ $212.67 $229.15 7.75%

In the single family market, prices were dropping in In the condominium market, price per square foot is
Greater Richmond through the early spring of 2012 increasing in the higher price points.
but have been rising since then. So the decreases
seen in price per square foot on this graph should be
followed by increase in a few months.



Richmond Real Estate Areas
The RAR uses Real estate areas as
shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas
10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44,
50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown
on the map. The analysis of MLS
data was generally done for each
month during the middle of the
following month. MLS analysis may
differ depending on what date the
information is taken from the MLS
system.


Active Single Family Listings By Area
Active Listings By Area (As of 10/1/12)
Number of Active Single

600 513
Family Listings

500 450
377
400
280
300 244 249 239 254 227
202 199 189 190
200 148 162 139 160
80
100
0
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
Area Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12

The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last
year. There are approximately 1500 fewer homes on the market than at this time last year.
Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory.

Single Family Average Sales Price By Area

Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House
Sales (7/1/11-6/30-12)

$430,047

$382,398
$500,000

$334,527
$312,061
$302,444
Average Sales Price

$276,143
$400,000

$251,014
$234,686

$227,469
$217,765

$207,522
$203,025

$168,649
$300,000

$156,991
$141,326
$138,967
$121,960

$104,692
$200,000

$60,937
$100,000

$0

All
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
Area

Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50
having the lowest.

Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area

Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
Closed Sales By Area (7/1/11-6/30/12)

$175.07

$200.00

$121.73
$121.39

$117.52
$111.59

$108.95
$107.54

$108.75
$102.56

$99.63
$97.39
$91.47
$88.40

$88.12
$150.00

$81.14

$80.87
$69.02

$67.35

$43.36
$100.00
$50.00
$0.00
10

20

22

24

30

32

34

36

40

42

44

50

52

54

60

62

64

66

d
on
hm
Ric
All
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Area

Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
price per square foot.

Richmond Housing Today October 2012

Richmond Housing Today October 2012

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