Within the next 10 years, genealogy is expected to change significantly due to increased digitization of records and a shifting audience. More records will become available online, allowing access from any device at any time. New collaborative software will be developed for online research. Younger genealogists will have different interests than traditional researchers, such as focusing on individual stories rather than complete family trees. Libraries will transition entirely to digital formats within 10 years. Societies and individuals will play a role in making local records and histories publicly available online.
6. History
Genealogy
0.5
•Original records
•Compiled Sources (typically without
source citations)
•Elitism (everyone looking for a royal
connection)
•No microfilm, no microfiche, no easy
travel, no archives open at 2 AM
•Typically expensive
•A few genealogy societies were
created, mostly for elitists
Up to about 1920
7. History
Genealogy
1.0
Genealogy
0.5
1920 - 1980
•Microfilming started in 1930s, a
remarkable improvement
•Growth of genealogy societies
•Popular books, especially Alex
Haley’s “Roots” in the 1960s,
which became a #1 best seller
•Reference books, sources
12. The Present
Impossible to determine but...
• over 500 million names on
FamilySearch.org
• 10 billion on Ancestry.com
• 6 billion on MyHeritage.com
• And many more on other genealogy web
sites
How many records are online today?
13. The Present
• Plus:
– Google Books
– Twitter
– Facebook
– Wikis (WeRelate.org)
– Bloggers
– And more…
19. More records online1
No surprises here!
Records will be online for better access
…and for records preservation
Mostly images of original records
…with transcriptions
20. More records online1
Will include…
Most all present-day microfilms, books, and paper
records from local records offices
Archives of email
Archives of Facebook and other online sites
21. More records online1
These will fulfill two purposes:
1. Records for future genealogists
2. Archival copies for government
offices
23. • All shared information is moving
to the cloud.
24. • All shared information is moving
to the cloud.
• Access is available anytime,
anywhere.
• From a desktop computer, from a
laptop computer, from a tablet,
from a smartphone, or from any
future devices not yet invented.
28. • The genealogy audience is
getting younger!
• Driven by technology?
• Driven by television and other
mass media
• Today, genealogy is cool!
29. • This future audience has
different interests:
• Most future genealogists will
be interested in stories of
certain ancestors, may not
care to know all ancestors
• Probably won't care about
pedigree charts
30. • This future audience has
different interests:
• More interested in individuals’
stories
• Not classified by age, gender,
or nationality
• May not join societies
31. • In one recent example of a group
of college-aged
genealogists/historians:
• 40% were born outside the
country
• 90% had one or more
grandparents born outside the
country
• Census records are useless to
them!
32. • In one recent example of a group
of college-aged
genealogists/historians:
• 50% classified themselves as
non-white
• 50% did not share a surname
with their fathers!
36. • According to Hewlett-Packard Sr.
VP, Shane Robison in his
keynote address at
RootsTech2011:• Sales of desktop computers
are declining worldwide every
year
• Sales of laptop computers are
slowly climbing every year
• Sales of tablet & handheld
computers are skyrocketing!
37. • Within 5 years, 60% of all
Internet access worldwide will
be by people who do not own a
“regular” computer.
• That percentage is expected
to increase further
38. Shane Robison's keynote address
at RootsTech2011 was
forecasting the Internet in five
years.
• In other words, he was
forecasting today!
• His forecasts have mostly
come true.
39. Digitize Everything!
• Tomorrow’s genealogy world:
• Many more records online
• Different demographics of
genealogists
• Many do not share surnames
with fathers
How will your society serve
his audience?
40. To forecast the next
10 years:
Traditional libraries will cease
to exist
41. A Look at the
Future
• Within ten years, all of today’s
books will all be digitized and
made available to everyone at
any time, anywhere. In many
cases, a small fee will be
charged.
• That is ALL of today’s books.
Travel to distant libraries will be
unnecessary.
42. A Look at the
Future
• Libraries will be available on
tablet computers, cell phones,
laptop computers, desktop
computers, and on technology
we have not yet invented
43. A Look at the
Future
• “Libraries” will be online, open
24 hours a day/7 days a week,
available to everyone in the
world with an Internet connection
(which will be most everyone)
44. A Look at the
Future
• Societies MAY play a larger role
than ever in providing
information about local historical
topics and residents.
• Societies will be able to derive
revenue from online publishing,
the same as in traditional
publishing on paper.
45. A Look at the
Future
• Individuals will also play a major
role in making records available
via electronic libraries.
• Many “cottage industries” will
spring up to provide information
of interest to others.
46. A Look at the
Future
• As to your genealogy
information:
– Make it available in digital format
– Share it with others
– Make numerous backups!
47. A Look at the
Future
• Properly cared for, the
information you save can be
preserved for centuries
