The document summarizes the results of an opinion poll tracking voting intentions for Ireland's general election in February 2011. It finds that Fine Gael has gained support during the campaign period, rising to 39% of the vote, though it is unclear if this will be enough for a majority government. Support for Labour has declined as support for Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has increased. Fine Gael also has stronger voter loyalty and may perform better in seats than national vote share due to transfers. The election remains close between Fine Gael and Labour in the final week.

1. Voting Intention Tracking Poll 20 th Feb 2011

5. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

6. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

7. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 20 th Feb 2011 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 33 39 27 Labour 14 17 10 Fianna Fáil 13 16 42 Sinn Féin 10 12 7 Green Party 2 2 5 Independents/ Others 12 14 6 Undecided 16

8. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.

9. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 39% 17% 16% Independent 12% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 14%

10. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 39% 17% 16% Independent 2% 12% 14%

11. General Election 2011 Run Up and Campaign 1 st Preference Poll Trends ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs Independent Fianna Fáil Labour Fine Gael Independent Sinn Féin Green Party

12. Second Preference among First preference voters FG % FF % Labour % % Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Independents Undecided First Preference Second Preference TOTAL % Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011

13. Attitude to 1 st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 913) Definitely Will Likely To Might Do Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t D/K Refused Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011

14. Attitude to 1 st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 913) Definite Voter Potential Voter Definitely Won’t Vote for Party Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Available Voter Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 Dec 2010 13 th Feb 2011 20 th Feb 2011

15. Best Taoiseach after Next General Election Eamonn Gilmore Q. Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election? (Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000) Enda Kenny Micheál Martin Don’t know None of these % Gerry Adams