Jay Forrester of MIT is recognized as the father of System Dynamics a body of knowledge founded on system theory in understanding the counter intuitive behavior of systems.The author in this presentation develops a methodology for managing project risks using system dynamics.

1. SYSTEM DYNAMICS A POWERFUL
TOOL FOR INFLUENCING PROJECT
DYNAMICS
PRESENTED AT THE PMI CON2005 NEW DELHI, 11TH
November 2005, New Frontiers in Project Management
By Himadri Banerji
Reliance Energy.
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 1
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

2. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS
• EVENTS HAPPEN AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR OF A SYSTEM
• BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME (DYNAMICS) IS OFTEN
COUNTER INTUTIVE AND A RESULT OF
• STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
INTERCONNECTED INFLUENCES AND FEEDBACKS
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 2
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

3. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE…
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 3
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

4. EXAMPLES OF BEHAVIOUR
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 4
11/7/2005

5. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE…
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 5
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

6. THE BASIC ELEMENT OF STRUCTURE IS FEEDBACK LOOP
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 6
11/7/2005

7. FEEDBACK LOOPS IN STRUCTURES INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER GIVING PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 7
11/7/2005

8. EVENT…BEHAVIOUR… STRUCTURE…
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 8
11/7/2005

9. TYPICAL MAIN ELEMENTS IN FEEDBACK LOOPS AND
BEHAVIOUR
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 9
11/7/2005

10. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS IS THE STUDY OF
• PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR
• ARISING OUT OF THE INFLUENCE
• OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF VARIOUS ELEMENTS
COMPRISING SYSTEM STRUCTURES
• THROUGH MODELLING AND SIMULATION.
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 10
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

11. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS HELPS IN
• DESIGNING THE INTERCONNECTIONS AND THE
STRUCTURE
• TO GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY
IN BEHAVIOUR OF SYSTEMS.
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 11
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

12. SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONCEPTS
FOCUSES ON DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR
SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND FEEDBACK AS
CAUSE OF DYNAMICS IN BEHAVIOUR
EMPHASIS ON INTERNAL BEHAVIOUR AND
HOW ONE HAS TO CHANGE STRUCTURE.
A MODEL IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF
ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 12
11/7/2005

13. SYSTEM DYNAMICS TOOLS
SOFT TOOLS HARD TOOLS
BEHAVIOUR OVER COMPUTER
TIME GRAPHS MODELLING
CAUSAL- LOOP COMPUTER
DIAGRAMMING SIMULATION
SYSTEM ARCHETYPES CALIBRATION TO DATA
MENTAL SIMULATION SENSITIVITY WHAT IF
ANALYSIS
SYSTEM THINKING
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 13
11/7/2005

14. SYSTEM DYNAMICS BASICS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 14
11/7/2005

15. HOW ARE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS CREATED
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 15
11/7/2005

16. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 16
11/7/2005

17. LINK AND LOOP POLARITY
BASIC CONCEPTS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 17
11/7/2005

18. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 18
11/7/2005

19. COMPUTER SIMULATION EQUATIONS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 19
11/7/2005

20. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 20
11/7/2005

21. REINFORCING LOOP COMPLICATING CONTROL
RESPONSE
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 21
11/7/2005

22. DOMINANT PROJECT CONTROLLING
LOOP…EXAMPLE
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 22
11/7/2005

23. FURTHER COMPLEXITY
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 23
11/7/2005

24. SYSTEM THINKING AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TRADITIONAL APPROACHES VS SYSTEMS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 24
11/7/2005

25. DYNAMICS ???
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 25
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

26. TRADITIONAL APPROACHES…PROJECT ANALYSIS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 26
11/7/2005

27. DYNAMICS ???
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 27
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

28. BENEFITS OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 28
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

29. SYSTEM DYNAMICS SAVES HALF OF THE ORIGINAL
TIME FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 29
11/7/2005

30. TRADITIONAL APPROACHES FAIL TO CONSIDER
SOFT FACTORS…FOR EXAMPLE REWORK
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 30
11/7/2005

31. OR UNDISCOVERED REWORK…
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 31
11/7/2005

32. SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL STOCKS AND FLOWS,
CONSTANTS, AUXILIARIES(COMPONETS FOR RATES) AND
EXTERNAL VARIABLES
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 32
11/7/2005

33. FEEDBACKS…OTHER SOFT FACTORS IGNORED IN
TRADITIONAL APPROACHES
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 33
11/7/2005

34. DESIGN OVERLAP..FEEDBACK
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 34
11/7/2005

35. CONSTRUCTION OVERLAPS..FEEDBACK
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 35
11/7/2005

36. FEEDBACK LOOPS CAUSING PROJECT DYNAMICS….
IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY/QUALITY
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 36
11/7/2005

37. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 37
11/7/2005

38. BEHAVIOUR OF DESIGN PROCESS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 38
11/7/2005

39. UNDISCOVERED REWORK SHOWS UP AS REVISIONS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 39
11/7/2005

40. STAFFING EXPERIENCES…….FROM PROJECTS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 40
11/7/2005

41. CAUSED BY
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 41
11/7/2005

42. STAFFING EXPERIENCES..ACTUAL PROJECT
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 42
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

43. AGAIN CAUSED BY NEED TO EXECUTE REWORK
11/7/2005 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND 43
PROJECT MANAGEMENT

44. PRODUCTIVITY AND QUALITY VARY OVER TIME
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 44
11/7/2005

45. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 45
11/7/2005

46. SYSTEM DYNAMICS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 46
11/7/2005

47. WORSENING FACTORS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 47
11/7/2005

48. SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 48
11/7/2005

49. CONCLUSION….INDUSTRY EXPERIENCES
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 49
11/7/2005

50. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
MIT OPEN COURSE STUDY IN SYSTEM DYNAMICS
A free and open educational resource for faculty, students, and
self-learners around the world. OCW supports MIT's
mission to advance knowledge and education, and serve
the world in the 21st century. It is true to MIT's values of
excellence, innovation, and leadership.
http://ocw.mit.edu
SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY : www.systemdynamics.org
CONCEPTS FROM THE ORIGINAL PAPER OF Dr. J.W FORRESTER
PROFESSOR EMERITUS MIT FOUNDER ON “ SYSTEM DYNAMICS”:
System dynamics in education project: http://sysdyn.clexchange.org
PROBLEM DIAGNOSTICS AND PROJECT DYNAMICS BY
NATHANIEL OSGOOD…
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT 50
11/7/2005