SIDE EVENT: 13th CAADP PP Meeting Ousmane Badiane Africa Director Kampala, May 31, 2017

1. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
2016 Annual Trends & Outlook Report- Contribution of
Climate-Smart Agriculture to Meeting Malabo Goals &
Preliminary Results
SIDE EVENT: 13th CAADP PP Meeting
Ousmane Badiane
Africa Director
Kampala, May 31, 2017

2. 2016 ANNUAL TRENDS & OUTLOOK REPORT (ATOR)
 Flagship ReSAKSS Publication
 Africawide ATOR is official CAADP M&E Report
 Tracks progress on CAADP indicators for 2015-2025
 Provides in-depth analysis of a feature topic
 2016 Report:
“A Thriving Agriculture in a Changing Environment:
Meeting Malabo Declaration Goals through Climate-Smart
Agriculture”

3. Editors: Alex De Pinto & John Ulimwengu
2016 ATOR explores:
» current knowledge of the effects of climate
change
» existing evidence of effectiveness of CSA
» provides examples of CSA-based policies & tools
to develop evidence-based policies
» evaluates the conditions for CSA implementation
2016 ANNUAL TRENDS & OUTLOOK REPORT (ATOR)

4. CHAPTER AUTHORS
The Effects of Widespread Adoption of Climate-Smart
Agriculture in Sub-Saharan African Under Changing
Climate Regimes
Alex De Pinto, Ho Young
Kwon, Nicola Cenacchi,
Shanhila Islam
Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food in
Africa
Mark W. Rosegrant, Keith
Wiebe
Trade, Climate Change, and Climate-Smart Agriculture Beliyou Haile, Carlo Azzarri,
Jawoo Koo, Alex De Pinto
Climate Smart Agriculture Practices induced by
Precision Agriculture: Case of Maize in Western Congo
John M. Ulimwengu, Aziza
Kibonge
A Framework to Connect Climate-Smart Agriculture,
Gender, and Nutrition
Elizabeth Bryan
The unholy cross: Profitability and adoption of soil
fertility management practices in sub-Saharan Africa
Ephraim Nkonya
10 CHAPTERS IN 2016 ATOR

5. CHAPTER AUTHORS
Ecosystems Based Adaptation –A composite solution
to climate-proof & optimize Africa’s food systems
Richard Munang
Spatial and temporal co-relationship between
interregional migration and environmental changes in
Mauritania
Abd Salam El Vilaly,
Mahalmadoun Tankari,
Ousmane Badiane
Evaluating CSA options in mixed crop-livestock
systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Philip Thornton
Tracking CAADP Indicators & Processes Sam Benin, Tsitsi Makombe,
Wondwosen Tefera
10 CHAPTERS IN 2016 ATOR

6. 2017 RESAKSS ANNUAL CONFERENCE
 Report will be launched & presented at ReSAKSS
Annual Conference, 25-27 October Maputo,
Mozambique
 See you there!

7. CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE
ORIGIN
 Climate change Adaptation
Climate-Smart Agriculture
 Climate change Mitigation
Climate Smart Agriculture was introduced in 2009 and became prominent
a year later at the First Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security
and Climate Change (FAO, 2010).

8. DEFINITION
 Many approaches
 Geographically-specific solutions
 Continuum of choices
all aiming at making the agricultural sector better
suited to handle the challenges of a new climate
CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE

9. CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE
OBJECTIVES
 Sustainably raising agricultural productivity
 Adapting and building resilience of food
systems and livelihoods at multiple levels
 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from
agriculture, where possible.

10. MODALITIES
 Initially prescriptive, menu of practices/technologies
 Then more holistic: systems, value chains,
landscapes.
IFPRI
o First: Biophysical/production side
o Now: added landscapes, risk management,
institutions/governance, value chains, gender, nutrition
CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE

11. Climate and Food System Challenges
 Population growth
» Total projected 9.6 Billion)
» Half in nine countries: IND, NGA, PAK, DRC, ETH, TNZ,
USA, INDON, UGN)
» Africa is expected to account for more than half of the
world’s population growth between 2015 and 2050
 Income growth in developing countries
» More demand for high valued food (meat, fruits,
vegetables)
Climate change exacerbates existing & generates new threats
WHY CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTRE

12.  Agriculture currently generates 11 - 29% of total GHG
emissions.
 Developing countries produce most ag-related
emissions
 Agricultural emissions 35% (2%) of emissions in
developing (developed) countries
Source: Richards et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2014.
AGRICULTURE BETWEEN PROBLEM AND SOLUTION

13. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT IN AFRICA
 Uncertainties regarding precise impacts on future agricultural
productivity.
 Most severe scenarios lead to significant losses worldwide.
 Africa to be strongly affected with marked regional differences
 Negative effect on yields likely, with warming >2 celsius variation
 Resistant crops (cassava), better practice can cut losses
Sources: (Niang et al. 2014; Schlenker and Lobell 2010; Thornton et al. 2011; Waha et al 2012; Darwin et al, 1995, 1996;
Fischer et al 1993, 1996; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003; Easterling et al. 2007; Nelson
et al. 2009, FAO, 2015;)

14. Effects of adoption of
CSA practices in SSA
A “tease” from the results that will be published in
this year ATOR

19. IMPACT OF SELECTED CSA PRACTICES IN SSA (2010-2050)
Simulation tools
 IMPACT & DSSAT
crop model: 2010-
2050
Practices
 No-tillage
 ISFM
 Alternate Wet and
Dry (AWD)
 Urea deep
placement (UDP)
Description Maize Wheat Rice
Production (% change) +56 ˗ +51 +14 ˗ +13 +34 ˗ +34
Price (% change) -2.8 ˗ -3.0 -1.3 ˗ -2.0 -3.2 ˗ -3.4
Pop risk of hunger (% change) -1.2 ˗ -1.3
Undernourished children (%
change)
-0.2 ˗ 0.3
Yearly mean emission reduction
(million tons CO2 eq.)
0.17
(223 cumulative 2010 – 2050)
(5.5 annually last decade)
De Pinto et al. (in progress)

20.  Widespread adoption of CSA practices:
» Moderate positive effect on yields and production,
» Decreases in prices
» Reduction in hunger and risk of malnutrition.
» Land expansion still profitable
» Soil organic carbon appears to grow indicating environ.
sustainably of production increase.
 Reducing emission requires:
» Bringing land use into CSA
» Agroforestry and livestock, not just crops
» Entire food system (trade, nutrition, safety nets)
EMERGING LESSONS FOR MALABO

21. MARK YOUR CALENDARS
2017 ReSAKSS Conference
25-27 October Maputo, Mozambique
See you there!