ReSAKSS-AfricaLead Workshop on Strengthening Capacity for Strategic Agricultural Policy and Investment Planning and Implementation in Africa Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, June 25th‐ 26th 2012

1. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS UNDER CAADP PROCESS
Workshop on Strengthening Capacity for Strategic Agricultural Policy
and Investment Planning and Implementation in Africa
Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi on 25th‐ 26th April 2012
Paul Guthiga, ReSAKSS‐ECA

2. Key Issues in Agricultural Development
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3. Importance of Agriculture in African Economies
• Agriculture remains a key sector in most countries in Africa;
– Part of strategy for achieving economic growth, poverty reduction & food
security
Source: compiled by ReSAKSS based on the mostly recently available country sources
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4. Low budgetary allocation…
4

5. Sector Growth‐1
• After several decades of stagnation;
– The continent posted positive overall GDP growth rates & agricultural
growth during the last decade
• Impressive progress in agricultural GDP growth;
– Average rate of 4 percent between 2007 and 2009
• With differences in performance among countries…
5

6. A g G D P g ro w th (A n n u a l % c h a n g e )
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
B u ru n d i
DRC
C o m o ro s
D jib o u ti
Egypt
E ritre a
E th io p ia
Average 1999-2001
Kenya
L ib y a
M adagascar
M a u ritiu s
Average2002-4
M a la w i
Sector Growth ‐2
Rwanda
Source: Authors’ computations based on data on ReSAKSS Website
Sudan
S w a z ila n d
S e y c h e lle s
Average 2005-2007
T a n z a n ia
Uganda
Z a m b ia
Z im b a b w e
6

7. Sector Growth…3
• The countries that met the CAADP target included;
– Rwanda (8.4%), Ethiopia (7.7%), Tanzania (7.3%) and Malawi (6.5%).
• However, high growth rates in agricultural GDP have not
invariably translated to reduction in poverty and hunger.
– In some countries there is marginal or no reduction in poverty despite
high growth in agricultural GDP.
– Need for targeting investments subsectors or in geographical regions with
potential for high impact on poverty
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8. Sector Growth…4
8

9. Agricultural productivity…1
• Ag. productivity growth in Africa, especially in SSA, has been
impressive since the mid‐1980s
• Labor productivity risen faster than land productivity in the
continent as a whole…
• But in SSA and in some countries land productivity has risen
faster than labor productivity..
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10. Land and Labour productivity in SSA and Sub‐
regions (1961‐2009)
Source: ReSAKSS ATOR, 2011 10

11. Labour and Land Productivity in Selected
Countries (1961‐2009)
Source: ReSAKSS ATOR, 2011 11

12. Total Factor Productivity in SSA (1961=1)
• Slight improvement in 1960s followed by rapid deterioration till
mid 1980s
• Very little technical change over the whole period
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13. Maize productivity…1
• Maize is the key staple in most countries in the region.
• Maize yields in the majority of countries in the COMESA
region are very low;
– Mostly less than 2 tones/ha compared to a world average of 5
tones/ha
• Yield decline has occurred in several countries in the region
over the past decade
13

14. Maize Productivity…2
14

15. Production versus Productivity Growth
2006 ‐ 2010 production growth rates 2006 ‐ 2010 Yield growth rates
Beans Maize Beans Maize
COMESA 2.4 5.0 1.7 1.3
East Africa 2.4 3 0.9 ‐1.4
Burundi ‐0.8 2.0 5.0 ‐1.0
Comoros 5.1 0.5
DRC 0.9 0.0 0.0 ‐0.01
Djibouti 0.8 ‐2.6 3.7 ‐12.4
Egypt 0.3 4.2 ‐2.3 ‐3.1
Eritrea ‐4.5 1.3 Production
Ethiopia 16.5 3.4 5.7 ‐0.1
is growing
Kenya ‐5.2 ‐2 0.7 ‐4.7
faster than
Libya 2.2 ‐1.5 0.1 ‐1.7
Madagascar 1.0 0.5 ‐0.8 ‐4.0
productivity
Malawi 8.0 8.9 9.8 7.3
Mauritius 17.2 3.8
Rwanda 2.9 51.1 5.5 36.9
Sudan ‐2.8 ‐21 ‐0.4 4.1
Swaziland ‐1.1 6.1 0.3 4.6
Uganda 2.0 1.9 ‐0.4 ‐0.3
Tanzania 3.1 5.6 ‐0.8 ‐0.6
Zambia 18.2 5.1
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Zimbabwe ‐5.7 ‐7.2 ‐3.9 ‐3.3

16. Poverty trends
• Africa as a whole has experienced a moderate decline in the
rate of poverty since 1990
• From 47.0 percent in 1990–95 to 46.5 percent in 1995–2003
and 44.3 percent in 2003–09.
• The COMESA region experienced similar declining trend, with
different levels of intensities across countries.
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17. Poverty declining.. but still high (1)
International Poverty Line: Poverty rates $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Country Name Most recent year Most recent poverty rates 2011 Estimated
Rates
Burundi 2006 81.3 78.3
Comoros 2004 46.1
DRC 2006 59.2
Egypt 2005 1.9 2.2
Ethiopia 2005 39.0 25.6
Kenya 2005 19.7 19.8
Madagascar 2005 67.8 55.2
Malawi 2004 73.9 64.4
Rwanda 2005 76.8 77.1
Swaziland 2001 62.9 45.7
Tanzania 2007 67.9 58.3
Uganda 2009 28.7 21.4
Zambia 2004 64.9 62.2
Source: http://data.worldbank.org ; 2011 Estimates are authors calculations based on
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“business as usual scenarios”

18. Food Insecurity and Malnutrition
Global Hunger Index (GHI)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Burundi
Comoros
DRC
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Rwanda
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1990 2003 2010
Key:
• 0 (No hunger)
• 20.0‐29.9 (Alarming hunger)
• 30 and above (Extremely Alarming)
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19. Trends in GHI…hunger has reduced, but
increased in some countries
% Change in GHI values % Change in GHI values
Country 1990‐2010 2003‐2010
Burundi 17.5 ‐10.3
Comoros 5.7 ‐9.4
DRC 60.8 9.0
Djibouti ‐23.5 12.4
Ethiopia ‐32.3 ‐18.8
Kenya ‐15.7 ‐8.9
Madagascar ‐5.5 ‐8.1
Malawi ‐43.5 ‐28.3
Mauritius ‐8.2 76.3
Rwanda ‐18.4 ‐15.1
Sudan ‐18.4 ‐18.6
Swaziland ‐19.4 ‐27.4
Tanzania ‐20.7 ‐30.9
Uganda ‐24.6 ‐19.5
Zambia ‐14.4 ‐21.6
Zimbabwe 3.5 ‐9.9
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Source: Authors’ computation

20. Rising food prices worsen hunger situation…
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan‐07 Apr‐07 Jul‐07 Oct‐07 Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐10 Jul‐10 Oct‐10 Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11 Oct‐11 Jan‐12 Apr‐12
Ethiopia‐ Food Total FAO GLOBAL‐ Food Kenya‐ Food & Non‐Alcoholic Drink
Malawi‐ Food MauritiusFood And Non Alcoholic Beverages Rwanda‐ Food And Non‐Alcoholic Beverages
Tanzania‐ Food and Non alcoholic beverages Uganda‐ Food Zambia‐ Food
Djibouti ‐ Food
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21. Market Access and Trade
• Agricultural trade accounts for about a third of the total intra‐
COMESA trade
• Regional trade in food staples has implications on regional
food security
• But.. Intra‐regional trade especially agriculture remain low
• Constrained by
– Trade barriers; Tariff & non‐tariff barriers
– Poor infrastructure
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22. Trend in the Structure of Intra‐COMESA Trade
Source: COmStat
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23. Environmental degradation & climate change
• Environmental degradation is a prevalent problem;
• Broad consensus that climate change poses a serious risk to
agricultural production and food security in Africa
• Impacts of climate change manifested through extreme and
increasingly variable weather conditions.
• High dependence on rain‐fed agriculture, coupled with weak
capacity to adapt pose huge threat for agriculture and
livelihoods
• But… little weight in policy
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24. POLICY ANALYSIS
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25. Agricultural Policy Making…1
• Agriculture has regained policy prominence; hence policy
initiatives like CAADP.
• New approach; evidence‐based and inclusive
policymaking processes
• Increasing economic integration hence more policy
making processes at the RECs level;
– trade policies,
– macro‐economic policies,
– agricultural policy etc
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26. Agricultural Policy Making…2
• But, …little understanding of policy‐making processes
and political economy motivations.
• Entry of many new actors in the policy arena.
• Consensus that persistent problems of poverty and
food insecurity can be addressed; correct
identification of policies and their implementation.
• But the problem of poor policy formulation and
implementation still persist.
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27. Agricultural Policy Making…3
• Policies are often;
– Formulated without evidence,
– Likely impacts are poorly analysed and understood
– Good policies are hindered by poor implementation.
• The changing policy environment require;
– Increased understanding of policy making processes and
– Skills and tools to effectively participate in policy processes
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28. Characteristics of public policies..1
• Problem‐centred: attempt to address specific
problems affecting specified groups in the society
• Based on scientific methods to be able to
convince stakeholders on reliability and some
degree of objectivity;
• Normative – Not completely objective as value
judgement cannot be entirely eliminated;
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29. Characteristics of public policies..2
• Involves some art, craft and persuasion to
marshal various interest groups especially the
losers in a policy decision
• Multi‐disciplinary: Good public policies
incorporate ideas from different fields such as
economics, sociology, biology, political
science, etc
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30. Steps in Policy Analysis…1
• Define and analyze the problem
– Questions ;Who is affected and how seriously?
– may include looking for causes
• Construct policy alternatives
– might be the most important step
– want to encourage creativity
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31. Steps in Policy Analysis…2
• Develop evaluative criteria
– effectiveness, efficiency, equity, political feasibility
– assess potential of different criteria
– will vary depending on the problem
• Assess policy alternatives
– ask which is likely to produce desired outcomes
• Draw conclusions
– some may advocate a single policy action, but
others may not
– be sure of the information gathered 31

32. Strategic Analysis Under CAAD Process
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33. Strategic Issues…1
• What has been the past performance and outlook for
agricultural growth and poverty reduction?
• What are the Strategic options and sources for growth and
poverty reduction?
• What growth rates are needed to achieve set development
targets?
• What investment options can generate the needed growth?
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34. Strategic Issues…2
• Which sub‐sectors within agriculture have the highest
potential to deliver on development goals e.g. poverty
reduction?
• What levels of funding is needed to achieve the set goals?
• What kind of strategic analysis and knowledge support
systems is needed to guide implementation of identified
strategies at country level?
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35. Major outputs from strategic analysis…1
• Country background papers and brochures and briefs utilized
in CAADP roundtables that examined
• The brochures and briefs have been utilized in countries such
as:
Benin, Burundi, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, Mali,
Senegal, the Gambia, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Tanzania,
Togo among others.
• Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty
reduction for countries such as:
Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique, Zambia, Malawi, Ghana
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36. Major outputs from strategic analysis..2
• CAADP Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework
• Development of high quality databases, advanced policy
modelling tools, and detailed baselines.
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37. THANK YOU
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38. Fertilizer consumption Kg/ ha arable land
LOW fertilizer use ; average 30kg/ha
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