"The Agricultural Growth and Development Policy (AGRODEP) Modeling Consortium" presentation by Tidiane Ngaido, Ousmane Badiane, Maximo Torrero, and Antoine Bouet at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.

1. THE AGRICULTURAL
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY (AGRODEP)
MODELING CONSORTIUM
T. Ngaido, O. Badiane, M. Torrero, and A. Bouet
International Food Policy Research Institute
Wednesday, January 07, 2009

2. OUTLINE
• POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY
• THE AGRODEP CONCEPT
• MODELING STRUCTURE
• GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2

3. POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• GLOBALIZATION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RESPONSES
• RECENT GROWTH RECOVERY: STRATEGIC LESSONS
• CAADP: KNOWLEDGE CONTENT AND REQUIREMENTS
• 6% GROWTH TARGET: GROWTH OPTIONS AND POVERTY IMPACTS
• 10 % BUDGET: PE TRACKING AND EFFICIENCY
• POLICY RENEWAL: PEER REVIEW, BENCHMARKING, AND LEARNING
• AFRICA FACES NEW CHALLENGES INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE,
ENERGY CRISIS, AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3

4. GROWING DEMAND FOR ANALYTICAL CAPACITY
• LINKING UP WITH GLOBAL MODELS
• BETTER REPRESENTATION AND CUSTOMIZATION OF AFRICA
• CREATING CRITICAL MASS OF SKILLS
• ACQUISITION AND UPGRADING OF MODELING TOOLS
• ENHANCING DATA AVAILABILITY
• LINK UP AND ADD VALUE TO DIFFERENT DATASETS
• COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS
• CONNECTING RESEARCHING
• USING EXISTING SKILLS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4

5. THE AGRODEP CONCEPT
• SPONSORSHIP
• MODELING STRUCTURE AND TOOLS
• DATA INFRASTRUCTURE
• MEMBERSHIP, NETWORKING, PARTNERSHIP
• COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5

6. MODELING STRUCTURE
Page 6

7. OVERALL AGRODEP MODELING STRUCTURE
• OPERATE AS A COORDINATION MECHANISM, BUILDING UPON
EXISTING INSTITUTIONS AND NETWORKS
• INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING KEY COMPONENTS:
– A) A SHARED MODELING INFRASTRUCTURE
– B) A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE
– C) A NETWORK OF EXPERTS
– D) A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

8. A Shared Modeling Infrastructure
• CONSOLIDATED CORE OF EXISTING MODELS DEALING WITH
SECTOR, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES AND LONG
TERM PROJECTIONS
• POTENTIAL POINT OF DEPARTURE: A SET OF MODELS USED
AND/OR ELABORATED AT IFPRI:
- MIRAGE MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY (MULTI-COUNTRY MULTI-SECTOR
COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL),
- IFPRI SINGLE-COUNTRY COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
ELABORATED BY LOFGREN, HARRIS AND ROBINSON (LHR),
- IMPACT MODEL (MULTI-SECTOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL DEVOTED TO
ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS DEALING WITH LONG
TERM PROJECTIONS)
• OTHER MODELS CAN BE INCLUDED IN THIS LIST VERY SOON: THE
GTAP MODEL, THE EMM MODEL.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

9. A COMMON DISTRIBUTED DATABASE
• CONSTITUTION OF A NEW GIANT DATABASE WOULD BE A VERY
RISKY AND COSTLY PROJECT
• BETTER TO LINK EXISTING KEY DATA SOURCES, COMPLEMENT IF
NECESSARY AND DEVELOP SHARED STANDARDS, FORMATS, AND
EXCHANGE PROTOCOLS
• A FIRST SET OF DATABASES CAN INCLUDE:
- SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIXES AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS AVAILABLE AT
IFPRI,
- GTAP DATABASE ON MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS,
- MACMAP DATABASE ON MARKET ACCESS,
- CEPII DATABASES ON TRADE (BACI), GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (CHELEM -
CEPII)…
- DATA ON AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

10. A NETWORK OF EXPERTS
• CONSORTIUM WOULD BUILD ON EXISTING AFRICAN
ORGANIZATIONS (ASARECA, CORAF, FANRPAN…) AS WELL AS
LEADING UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH ENTITIES (PRIVATE AND
PUBLIC)
• ALSO LINK UP WITH OTHER LEADING CENTERS OF EXPERTISE,
– CG CENTERS,
– RESEARCH CENTERS IN EUROPE (CEPII, LEI…),
– UNIVERSITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE (PURDUE UNIVERSITY, LAVAL
UNIVERSITY, PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS…)
– OTHER GLOBAL MODELING CONSORTIA: GTAP, PEP.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

11. A COMMUNITY OF PRACTITIONERS
A SET OF SPECIFIC STAKEHOLDERS AND INTEREST GROUPS WOULD
BE ESTABLISHED…
• TECHNICAL EXCHANGE;
• TRAINING AND CAPACITY BUILDING;
• STRATEGIC POLICY DEBATE.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

12. A PROPOSED MODELING ARCHITECTURE
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

13. GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
Page 13

14. PROGRAM GOVERNANCE AND COORDINATION
CLEAR MECHANISM FOR GOVERNANCE, COUNSEL, AND INTER-
INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION
• STEERING COMMITTEE (MADE UP OF KEY AFRICAN
PARTNERS) DECIDES AND GUIDES ON KEY MATTERS OF
POLICY, PLANNING AND RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
• SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD PROVIDES INPUT TO
TECHNICAL ISSUES (SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS)
• PROGRAM COORDINATORS HANDLE DAY-TO-DAY
OPERATIONAL MATTERS, INCLUDING PROGRAM
COORDINATION, PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, PREPARATION
AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND FIELDING JOINT MISSIONS TO
SUPERVISE ON-GOING OPERATIONS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

15. PROGRAM STRUCTURE
NSO
DEVELOPMENT AT
COUNTRY LEVEL
NSO
DATA
NSO
STEERING PROGRAM
COMMITTEE COORDINATORS
NSO
CS
CHAMPIONS
MODELING
NETWORK
COUNTRY
SCIENTIFIC CS
ADVISORY
BOARD CS
CS
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 15

16. PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:
COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PROGRAMS
• COUNTRIES (COUNTRY MODELING CHAMPIONS) IN THE DRIVER’S
SEAT AND EXTENSIVE CONSULTATION WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO
FOSTER COUNTRY BUY-IN AND OWNERSHIP
• MORE EMPHASIS ON BUILDING CAPACITY TO PLAN AND IMPLEMENT
NEEDED DATA AND USE AND BE ABLE TO MODIFY STARTING
MINIMUM MODELING TOOLS
• BUILDING ON THE EXISTING CAPACITY – START FROM THE WEAKEST
LINK AND MOVE ON TO OTHERS
• INTERACTION OF PRODUCERS (SUPPLIERS) AND USERS (CLIENTS) OF
DATA INCREASES LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE PROGRAM
• PROMOTE “CULTURE OF STATISTICS” AND DEMOCRATIZATION OF
DATA ACCESS (OPEN DATA ACCESS POLICY – PRE-CONDITIONS FOR
PARTICIPATION IN AGRODEP
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

17. PROGRAM DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION:
REGIONAL TRAINING, WORKSHOPS AND DATA BANK
• REGIONAL WORKSHOPS/SEMINARS (AGRODEP LED)
• LEARN THE LATEST TECHNIQUES FROM WORLD EXPERTS
• SHARE AND DISSEMINATE BEST PRACTICES
• EXCELLENT VENUE FOR PEER LEARNING, NETWORKING AND ORGANIZING
HORIZONTAL COOPERATION
• REGIONAL TRAINING PROGRAM COURSES (AGRODEP LED)
• A STRUCTURED KNOWLEDGE BUILDING ON STARTING MODELING TOOLS. THIS
MINIMUM CORE OF MODELING TOOLS COULD INCREASE OVER TIME
• REGIONAL DATA BANK
• NEEDED VALUE ADDED FOR DATA USERS BY INTRODUCING STANDARDIZED DATA
LABELING AND VERY DETAIL DOCUMENTATION OF DATA SETS
• DATA ACCESS AND DISSEMINATION MADE EASY
• CERTIFICATION ROLE OF AGRODEP
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

18. Data Dissemination Toolkit
On-line analysis
Data CD-ROMs, DVDs
documentation
XML metadata Websites
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 18

19. Next steps
• DAKAR WORKSHOP
• PARTICIPANTS: 37
• INSTITUTIONS
• IFPRI, CIRAD, UNECA, CORAF, LAVAL University, CRES, ISRA, Institute Hassan II,
FAO, University of the Free state, University of Pretoria, University of Nairobi, Universite
Catholique de Louvain, CMA/WCA, IRD, University of Ghana, CIRAD, CEPII, Center for
World Food studies, ASARECA, GTAP
• Countries
• USA, France, Ethiopia, Senegal, Canada, Senegal, Senegal, Morocco, Italy
• South Africa, South Africa, Kenya, Belgium, Senegal, Ghana, France, France,
Netherlands, Uganda, USA
• WORKSHOP REPORTS (JANUARY)
• PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT (FEBRUARY)
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 19