1. HAR LIN GEN
State of the Community Report
2012
Group: Ricca Keepers, Travis Liska, Siyang Zhang, Mizzo Kwon, Chester BergPLAN 613
History moving forward.

2. Harlingen is located in the Rio Grande
Valley region of Texas, roughly equidistant
from Brownsville, McAllen and Port Isabel.
Given their proximity to the United States –
Mexico border, the cities that lie in “the
valley,” including Harlingen, are affected by
social, economic and land use factors that are
unique to the border region. The following
report is by no means an exhaustive
examination of city conditions, but rather is a
base from which to build upon for future
policy decisions. In determining the state of
the community our team focused on three
areas; a study of the population, an
examination of the local economy, and finally
a land-suitability analysis.
In addition to the literature this
report includes charts, graphs, tables and
maps compiled using data collected from the
U.S. Census, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the city of Harlingen and numerous
other sources. The information is intended to
briefly and effectively communicate the city of
Harlingen’s current situation. Furthermore,
the data collected was used to forecast
Harlingen’s future situation and make
suggestions about how to adapt the city’s
plans to meet the needs of those projected
changes.
INTRO

3. Population
In this section the population will be broken down into four categories of ethnicity; Total, Hispanic, White,
Black, and Other (predominantly Asian) populations. The city of Harlingen will use this data to plan for its
diverse population with amenities toward growing and declining demographic sectors. The goal of Harlingen is
to become a competitive player in the industrial economy. We will be a destination city where all families move
here for quality jobs, a community rich in culture and heritage, and where retirees look to enjoy their golden
years.
Methodology
Linear Extrapolation Method shows increase by the same number of persons as it did over the base period
years. Exponential Extrapolation Method is dependent on the average annual exponential growth rate that
assumes continuous compounding and can lead to very high projections in rapidly growing areas. Planners use
projections of populations to gauge how much
growth will occur, ultimately providing more
accuracy and legitimacy to their plans. There
are multiple ways of measuring projections but
ratios show a relationship between a broader
region of the population, in our case Cameron
County, and how that compares to the
population in question (Harlingen.) Migration
is an important concept to account for
regardless of whether the migration be
international or regional. In Harlingen,
migration is assumed due to past migration
trends.
Another assumption by looking over the
population pyramids (Pyramid 1 and Pyramid
2) is why the largest number of growth is in
children under the age of five. This could imply
that parents want their children to be born in
the US. The number then starts declining and
in 2000 there is a large decline, for young
adults, which indicates students leaving for
college. The population starts to taper off at
55+ suggesting people are returning to Mexico
to retire near family. For the ratio analysis it
shows growth changes within the relationship of
the Cameron County. The shift-share and share
growth ratios take into account migration
changes at different levels. Also they take a look
at similar changes over a period of time can be
more accurate (summary table1). In this case,
POP

4. we chose Cameron County as a parent area of Harlingen city, based on that the pattern of the employment
growth rate of Cameron County is very similar to that of Harlingen. The main reason for this similar pattern
would be because Harlingen plays a role of an economic/industrial hub of Cameron county as well as.
Current Trends
Based on this analysis, the total population of the City of Harlingen is expected to continue growing over the
next 20 years. From our base period of 2000 – 2010, Harlingen contributed a declining percent of growth to
its MSA, Cameron County. This indicates that Harlingen is not receiving a majority of the county’s new
growth. Harlingen will look at ways to alter this through job capacity growth by diversifying industry, building
on technical training for resident’s enhancement, and become a competitor in global economic opportunities.
These objectives will strengthen the community’s trend for decline by age (refer to population pyramid) and by
ethnicity (table 1 and 2).
This implies that planning for
the area must anticipate total
population growth. In general
this means the expansion of
either the land area of the city,
an increase in density, or infill
of open space. Plans should be
made for the gradual
expansion of the city that
encourage sustainable
development and is sensitive
to the agricultural economy
around the city. Also the
community will take into
consideration the growth and
how it affects affordable living
in housing and economic
viability.
Hispanic
In this case, we are using just two census data, 2000 and 2010 for projecting population of the next twenty
years. Therefore, based on the average approaches, we can say that the Hispanic population of Harlingen for
the next twenty years will slowly and constantly grow, which the increase could be the natural increase. So, the
planners can make the urban/community development plan for the major population, Hispanic in Harlingen
as usual since there might not seem to be a rapid growth or decline in Hispanic of Harlingen even if there is no
abrupt social, political, and natural change in the future. They, however, have to still focus on the Hispanic
more than any other race because the population of Hispanic in Harlingen is increasing little by little anyway;
the proportion of Hispanic in Harlingen is increasing from 72.8% in 2000 to 79.5% in 2010. This trend seems
to continue if there is no upset in the future. The city can promote growth in for the Hispanic population if
economic diversity becomes a strength, which will decrease the unemployment rate for Harlingen. Along with
the healthcare industry making training institutes available to the area will increase the reliability of the
population to consistently grow. Also with the boom in the population and economy the city will spend more
attention on higher quality infrastructure, heritage events, and beautifying the city.

5. White
The non-Hispanic white cohort of Harlingen’s population makes up 18% of its total population. When
compared to non-border cities, Harlingen has an extremely low presence of non-Hispanic whites a very
obvious weakness that will be altered.
In comparison to a low demographic Harlingen will experience a decline in the white population over the next
10-20 years. From 2000-2010 the white population decreased by 2,729 people leaving the city which is even
worse. Less white people could have huge implications if those people also happen to be less educated, or more
likely, more educated than their non-white counterparts.
To change this, the city will add technical training centers and become more of a competitor in the global
economy. Harlingen will advertise for manufacturing companies and transportation industry to utilize
Harlingen as a location hub by giving incentives to stay and develop. This will give Harlingen opportunity to
build and diversify the economic climate and as a secondary change the white demographic will start to grow
rather than decline. The infrastructure and residential areas will also be developed to accommodate these jobs
and this particular growth.
Black
Because of the small base data of African-American population, there is no difference in the three
simple trend approaches. The African-American population in Harlingen will follow a very slight
growth trend. Since the population is small in proportion the city sees this as a weakness of diversity.
It is appropriate to note ways of changing this through increasing growth by implementing technical
training facilities. The training schools will affect this demographic by bringing in an influx of
professionals to train. Although this effort will expand this demographic is it difficult to specifically
say how much.
Other
The “other” category is defined primarily by Asian, Native American, native Hawaiian, and Alaskan
populations. Asian families tend to move into cities that are international in which Harlingen is the city sees
this as strength. The linear and exponential approaches do not take into account migration rates, fertility rates,
death rates, or any changes that will occur (see table 1-table3) (Klosterman, 1990). These formulas assume the
growth rate will be exactly the same. Overall the city is growing in culture there are Asian businesses that
support this demographic. The summary table shows growth no matter which approach used. However since
there is a steady incline using the migration 1.0 formula is a more accurate tool for Harlingen. By 2030, the
city will have an incline that will equal the Cameron County “other” population of 2010 (Census). This means
at a 1.0 migration rate the “other” populace will quadruple in size to 3,568. There are Asian markets and
restaurants for this demographic. Housing will need to be looked at carefully as it stands multi-use and mobile
home housing is minimal and located near factories (Harlingen). Desegregating residential areas will help
incorporate more residential units for the influx of new residents.
Summary
The opportunity of Harlingen to grow in the near future is there with the community’s involvement. The
culture is rich and full of potential to become a thriving diverse population. A city where people move to be
near their grand-children and enjoy the newly beautified downtown, greenbelt connections, lakefront
residential area blocks away from downtown eateries and downtown shops. Where families can live, work,
play, and retire.

6. Economic Analysis
In this section, our research seeks to reveal if Harlingen is a “viable economic entity with integrated,
interdependent, and largely self-sufficient, productive, and distributive activities” (Klosterman).
Harlingen Economy Defined
We define our local economy as the Cameron County, Brownsville–Harlingen Metropolitan Statistical
Area (MSA) level. The local economy is defined through the relationship between Harlingen are the
surrounding cities that intertwine through employment and transportation. Harlingen and the nearby
area including its closest neighborhood, Brownsville and San Benito as well as Mexico and the rest of
the MSA share the transportation system each other, which makes an economic link between them.
The trend of the employment change of the city of Harlingen is very similar to that of MSA according
to the Harlingen comprehensive master plan (2001). Also, Harlingen is part of a region or urban area
that has no central city or core, but is made up of many relatively similar sized cities. Harlingen has its
largest flow of people with its closest neighbors (Brownsville, and San Benito) in Cameron County
which makes the MSA a good level to examine the local economy.
Economic Data Analysis
Average Rent
Even after accounting for inflation, the true cost of housing increased during the period from 2007-
2011. Although the cost of housing did increase, by dividing the Harlingen rent for 2011 by the
Harlingen rent for 2007 we see that the increase was a 4.3%. While this is by no means exorbitant, for
low income individuals it could be consequential. Unfortunately, the situation is even worse for the
MSA. By plugging the numbers for the MSA into the same equation we find that the increase for the
MSA was a much larger, 10.4% increase.
Unemployment Rate
In the first decade of 21 century, the unemployment rate in Brownsville-Harlingen MSA had an
obvious change in the tendency. After 2008, the average unemployment rate is about 33%. The global
financial crisis starting in USA due to the subprime mortgage crisis should have a great impact on the
sharp rise in the unemployment rate after 2008. We can see that airport passenger and freight cargo
have been declining since 2007, tied to global economic decline. Before 2007, the rate had been
declining slightly. However, in the next three years, this trend was replaced with a dramatic soar to
reach the 11.3% point. Comparing with the rate of Texas, MSA’s index kept nearly the same trend of
Texas’s with only one exception in 2003. The increase of the total amount of labor force is bigger than
the growth of employment both in the state and the MSA level. In 2009 and 2010, the growth rate of
total amount of labor force which might be because of the inflow of the border is twice than that in
2008. This is a big reason led to the higher unemployment rate.
ECON

7. Employment by Industry
Health care and social assistance sector is the most important to the local economy in terms of
employment. The following major industry of Cameron county is local government. Overall, the local
economy seems to be dependent on the local government-related-services. Looking at percentage
change in employment by sector from 2001 to 2011 in Cameron county, we can see specific sectors
have grown or declined over time—may signal a local competitive advantage or disadvantage. Mining,
finance, real estate, administrative and waste management ser., and health care have grown for a
decade. However, manufacturing industry has declined for the last ten years. These trends are very
similar to both those of nation, USA and state, Texas. If Cameron county raises the funds used
Table 1: LQ: Employment by Industry

8. primarily to facilitate manufacturing and industrial activity, these monies can be used to provide
incentives to attract businesses (such as low cost land, lease assistance, etc.), fund targeted
infrastructure related to a project, provide job training related to specific companies, and retain or
create new jobs.
Comparing the LQ-US and LQ-TX, forestry and health care industries are assigned to the basic sector
and are considered part of the economic base of the local economy. Also, we would pay special
attention to those industries with LQs higher than 1.25, as potential exporters. However, forestry is
decreasing for the last ten years in the light of both the LQ-Us and LQ-TX and the employment
growth. Therefore, forestry in the Cameron county is a poor performer and it could be local weakness.
While forestry is decreasing, the health care sector is continually growing in terms of the local
employment growth and gaining competitive share. Therefore, the health care service plays a strong
performer in the local economy and has current strength.
Earnings by industry
The activity in agriculture industry is low for Cameron County in general but compared to Texas it is
strength. Healthcare is a big asset to the area bringing in 20% of the county Income (BEA). This can
be strength for the area to capitalize on for the future to increase specialty doctors and facilities. One
area that should be strengthened is the arts and museums industry that will make money for the city
and create closer bonds for residents. The area needs to create connection with the original flavor to
increase health and responsibility. This has the potential to save the county and city money in the
government industry. The government industry needs to start working on helping the residents
become aware of where the money is going.
Average Housing Value
The Consumer Price Index is a measure of change in the price of a selection of common goods
and services consumed in urban areas. These prices recorded over time allow us to calculate
inflation indicating the relative value of a dollar at a point in time. The CPI analysis indicates that the housing
prices have risen, 2009 - 2011 value estimates are higher, even when subtracting the margin of error than the
2005-2007 estimates when the MOE is added to the adjusted value. This was a 6.26% increase in median home
value. The state of Texas saw a 3.3% increase for the same period. Homes in the Brownsville – Harlingen MSA
are significantly cheaper than in the rest of the state ($127,500, Median Value ACS 3 year 2011). Also, recently,
Harlingen has been named the city with the nation’s most affordable living in 306 urban areas in United States
by the Council for Community and Economic Research in 2012.
LQ Analysis
Usually any location quotient over 1.00 is considered to be “significant.” When looking at Cameron
County as compared to the nation it has a higher proportion of workers in Retail Trade, Health Care,
Transportation, Accommodation and Food, Federal Government and Local Government. Health Care
and Local Government had the most substantial National LQ’s at 1.90 and 1.72 respectively. When
looking that the State LQ’s we see the same trend with 2.08 for Health Care and 1.55 for Local
Government. A possible explanation is that Cameron County’s close proximity to the border leaves it
with many undocumented citizens who still need access to Health Care. The increase in Local
Government may also be related to the extra manpower that might be required to serve those extra
people. The last interesting component of the LQ analysis was the Cameron County has a slightly

9. higher share of Federal Government employees than the Texas average. Again, because of Cameron
County’s geographic closeness to Mexico, it is likely that these extra Federal employees are in some
way related to border control or border affairs. In planning for future growth, both population and
economic, Harlingen will want to assess whether it can rely on the Health Care industry to continue to
take up such a large portion of its economic base.
Another interesting sector that host more employment than the nation is the Transportation and
warehousing, even though this sector only accounts for 4% of the private sector employment. While
the MSA is low in some areas it does have an advantage the sectors related to its proximity to the
border and the coast reflected in its retail plus transport and warehousing.
Strengthening the management of companies in Brownsville-Harlingen MSA should be an area of
focus. The extraction based industries are often a product of geography, therefore, growth in those
areas will be challenging and not necessarily desirable. Overall, there are many healthy sectors, but
diversification of the employment base should be encouraged.
Destination Analysis
The Destination analysis shows that Harlingen (29.4%) has the largest share of jobs of any city in
Cameron County, with Brownsville (8.3%) a distant second. Based on this data you might assume that
Harlingen should have no trouble employing all its residents; however the Inflow/Outflow analysis
told a different story. Of the people who live in Harlingen 49.5% of them are also employed there, but
the remaining 50.5% go outside of Harlingen to find work. This could be due to many factors. There
Figure 1: Inflow/Outflow Report in Harlingen, TX (2010)

10. could be a discrepancy between the skill level of the jobs available and the skill levels of residents in
Harlingen. Some may travel across the border for work. From another perspective, the Harlingen
residents only make up 29.4% of the people employed in Harlingen. The other 70.6% come from
outside the community.
One explanation for the large number of workers who commute could be lack of housing. This might
explain Harlingen’s higher median rents relative to the MSA. About 80% of residential neighborhoods
are single-family. If over one-
third of the residents make blue-
collar wages, there should be
amenities and options for this
demographic. The MSA’s
educational attainment is below
Texas state average. Only 14.3%
have bachelor’s degree or
higher; population with high
school degree 60%.
Also, There has been a Health Care boom in The Valley in recent years. The number of health care
facilities has grown immensely, but it appears that the housing market was not able to keep up. With
plenty of jobs, but few places to live within Harlingen, health care workers may be forced to commute
from other communities. This boom also corresponds to the higher than national average number of
workers in the health care industry found when doing the Location Quotient calculations. People do
not usually commute unless it is out of necessity. To create a more sustainable and less auto-
dependent city, Harlingen will need to focus on creating more housing and keeping it affordable
within its boundaries.
Conclusion
The above measured economic indicators suggest that Harlingen is poised to continue growing. Both
analysis of BEA and BLS show that health care service in the Cameron county, MSA, has been growing
as a strong performer for the local economy. There is more than one connection to Cameron County
through Texas. The earning of industry shows 20% of wages come from healthcare and social
assistance industry(BEA). For Texas the employment rate is 20% in the same industry(BLS). These
are different categories but they show it is a growing industry and one to continue investing money in.
There is two other industries worth focusing attention one being government jobs and food services.
These are growing industries. Food services industry for the US, Texas, and Cameron County are
synonymous in percentage and location quotient(BLS). These are resilient industries as they are
growing right now. Cameron County is a part of this growth that builds flexibility for the future. This
will continue to be an influence in the future. However, government jobs for the County by earnings is
the leading category. Compared to Texas at 17% much lower than 30%(BEA).
The MSA mainly depends on service industry, no major heavy industry. Also, we can assume through
the LQ analysis that the most leading industries of Cameron county might seem to be related to or
specialized in the local government services. Therefore, if the local economic development makes a
planning to promote business-friendly-polices and to attract the private manufacturing industries, the
Table 3 : Job Counts in Home Blocks by Distance Only

11. local economic growth rate would be increased. Valley International Airport, Port of Harlingen
(canal), the Free Trade International Bridge at Los Indios, and Harlingen’s extensive highway and
railway system make Harlingen a good location for global and national trade. Also, there is lots of
open land for development. Especially, large parcels are suitable to development along highways 54,
107, 77, and east of N Ed Carey Street. Thankfully, in this Feb., 2013, federal and state environmental
officials have given approval for a 690-megawatt electric power plant to be built just east of Valley
International Airport in Harlingen. This power plant should be a new core economic growth engine in
Harlingen. “The facility is going to bring 650 and 800 jobs over the next two to three years in
construction alone and about 30 to 35 high-paying engineering jobs will be created after construction
is completed. It’s a half-a-billion-dollar capital investment right there on the edge of Harlingen. That’s
about a quarter of our existing taxable assessed valued”, according to Mayor Chris Boswell. “The
construction project itself will be a major economic boost for the area and the power plant — which
can supply the needs of up to 700,000 homes — should draw more industry and development to the
area”, according to Boswell.
LEHD data shows that Harlingen plays an important economic hub role attracting people by job.
However, Harlingen might seem to need to provide more livable and pleasant environment and
amenities such as housing for people who are working in Harlingen, in order to reduce the overall
commuting distance. It could enhance jobs-housing balance, and efficiency for productivity through
providing homes near to workplaces in Harlingen.
Land Suitability
The geographic setting of Harlingen allows for development to occur in many directions around the
city. Based on a land suitability analysis of the city using datasets on flood plains, geology, hydrology,
transportation, slope, and land cover, the most suitable areas for development have been identified.
For most land uses, the most suitable locations occur close to the highways (Hwy 77 and Hwy 83).
Most of the inner portions of the city also remain highly suitable for development. This inner area
(east of Hwy 77 and inside 499/ Ed Carry Dr) has the benefit of being accessible to major roadways
and a variety of land uses.
Few natural environmental factors limit the direction of growth around the city. While there are
many land parcels near highways which are optimal to development, appropriate precautions should
be made with development near the Arroyo Colorado consistent with its Watershed Protection plan.
Expanding the city boundary towards the east also places development closer to lower lying coastal
lands.
The appropriateness of different location varies by land use. Industrial land uses are those most
needing convenient access to high capacity transportation. Highways 83 and 77 offer the most
convenient locations with the city limits, while to the east along Ed Carry Dr a greater number of large
and suitable parcels are available. Further development to the east of Ed Carry Dr would offer
convenient access to the Port of Harlingen and the Valley International Airport.
LAND

12. Commercial development is best suited to be near the core of the city as well as along the major road
ways with major preference to Hwy 77. Multi-family housing would best be placed inside the Hwy
77/Ed Carry Dr loop. The suitability analysis places it closer to the downtown areas. Encouraging
these housing developments near existing retail destinations could improve the pedestrian experience
downtown. Single family residential is would find more suitable locations to the west side of
Harlingen near Hwy 83.
SWOT

13. U.S. Census Bureau – American Fact Finder
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
Bureau of Labor Statistics
http://www.bls.gov/data/
U.S. Census Bureau – On the Map
http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
City Data for Harlingen
http://www.city-data.com/city/Harlingen-Texas.html#ixzz2OngaJhrv
Valley Morning Star
http://www.valleymorningstar.com/
Brownsville Herald
http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/
Texas A&M Real Estate Center Market Report 2012
http://recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/2012/BrownHar.pdf
SOURCES