The document discusses various possible futures for Bitcoin, ranging from failure to widespread global adoption. It outlines challenges like powerful opponents in the banking and government sectors that could launch attacks on the Bitcoin protocol or price. However, it also presents potential pathways to success, such as a stable price leading to Bitcoin becoming a standard part of the global economy. Ultimately, the document considers a variety of long-term scenarios for Bitcoin through the next century as technology and adoption changes.
10. Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies
Payment processors
Banks
Governments ?
Various attacks are possible
Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%)
Price manipulation
Regulatory attacks
Hacking
11. People lose faith in Bitcoin
A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0
The way down might take a while, like
the way up
12.
13. Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level
It becomes some small percent of the world
economy
Used for some purposes, mostly on the
internet
Growth in user base and monetary value halts
14. Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is
using it.
Bitcoin users can still:
Hold their own money
Send it to whoever they want
Use advanced features
People move in and out of the Bitcoin
economy at will
15.
16. More and more people see the benefits
They trade Fiat money for BTC
Bitcoin is a major part of the world
economy
17. Banks and payment processors
cooperate instead of compete
Insured BTC deposits
Government issues Fiat backed by BTC
(Gold Standard 2.0)
18. Bitcoin becomes boring
Several great wallets to choose from
Everything JustWorks
19. Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank
Distributed exchanges
Lower exchange fees
Managed wallets
20. Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency
Ripple is also a competitor
Maybe something else entirely?
21. Block reward drops to zero around 2050
Transaction fee structure change
Hash function upgraded
(Quantum resistant)
Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)
Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)