Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences
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John Englander, oceanographer, consultant, and sea level rise expert discusses the science of sea level rise, its economic impacts, and adaptation options for coastal businesses.
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Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences
- 1. Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences @John Englander Newport, RI December 10, 2014
- 2. FEMA photo Storm events….“Sandy”
- 4. one month after “Sandy”, the “no name” Thanksgiving storm of 2012
- 6. Not a Future Problem saltwater on the streets every month at peak tide
- 7. King Tide not Florida to replace next FLL
- 9. Flooding has many variations
- 10. Flooding due to: 1. Storms 2. Extreme Tides 3. Rising Sea Level 4. Subsidence 5. Runoff / Downstream 6. [Erosion]
- 11. Flooding due to: 1. Storms 2. Extreme Tides 3. Rising Sea Level 4. Subsidence 5. Runoff / Downstream 6. [Erosion] Different Drivers Predictability Magnitude Permanence Impact areas
- 12. Sea Level Today Elevation Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Tides and Waves SLR Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation (!) Episodic Risk Factors Long-Term Risk Factors William O’Reilly / Scripps Institution of Oceanography
- 13. See Level change is “new.” Barely changed in 5,000 years. Last time it was higher was 120,000 years ago.
- 16. @johnenglander
- 17. 20,000 Years Ago Sea Level
- 19. When all ice melts Present Sea Level 47th Floor Miami Tower “Bank of America” 30th Floor 212 ft (65 m) 390 ft (120 m) 20,000 years ago Last Ice Age @ johnenglander.net
- 23. © 2006 John Englander
- 24. @johnenglander
- 25. @johnenglander
- 28. Greenland = 24 feet of SLR Antarctica = 186 feet of SLR
- 29. © 2006 John Englander
- 35. Last half century continues the pattern: CO2, global temperature, and sea level are all rising
- 36. By 2100, new IPCC Projections: “10 – 32 Inches of SLR” #’s do not include the “wild card” amplifiers: • Methane • West Antarctic glaciers
- 41. Methane becoming larger factor 86 x CO2 warming force per unit / 20 years
- 45. Takeaways 1. Storms + tides + SLR = vulnerability now 2. After years of stability, SL is rising and will continue for centuries 3. We can slow SLR, but not stop it 4. The trend can be your friend 5. Know your risk, plan, and adapt
- 49. Sacramento, CA is 80 miles from the Pacific but has extreme vulnerability to rising sea level and over a thousand miles of earthen levees.
- 51. Rotterdam Multipurpose Urban Dikes Concept
- 52. Water Plaza
- 54. Beach Resort Scheveningen: Dike-under-Boulevard concept Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
- 55. Noordwijk: ‘Dike-in-Dune’ concept Boulevard New dike Additional dune Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
- 57. Designing for future generations… …is our responsibility, and a great opportunity
- 58. RECAP 1. Storms, Extreme Tides, and SLR are different. 2. SLR will have different effects in different places. 3. Projections differ and change. Plan for first 3 feet of SLR, asap……more to come 4. Don’t confuse planning for SLR with reducing GHG and other efforts at being “sustainable” and green.
- 59. RI @ johnenglander.net www.johnenglander.net Amazon.com: print and Kindle Twitter: @johnenglander Facebook