Module 10 - Annex 1 & annex 2: Definition & causes of climate change & impact on Asia Pacific region 20110825

Module 10
Session 1
(Seoul, Korea, 23 February 2011)
Definition & causes of climate change,
impact on development with focus on
Asia Pacific
Richard Labelle
rlab@sympatico.ca

2
Objectives of Module 10
To show that ICTs can be used to address
climate change
To demonstrate why ICTs are a crucial
part of the solution – i.e. in promoting
efficiency, Green Growth & sustainable
development

3
What is climate change?
Any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or
as a result of human activity
[IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

4
Discussion
Is climate change real?
How is it affecting your country or
region?
Summarize the evidence of climate
change in your regions (4 groups)

5
The causes of climate change (1)
The variability in the composition of
the constituents of the global
atmosphere that affects the energy
balance of the planet earth
When certain gases which absorb solar
radiation and emit heat increase in
concentration in the atmosphere, this
can lead to global warming and climate
change

6
The causes of climate change (2)
Atmospheric gases that absorb solar
radiation more than others retain
heat that warms the atmosphere and
the surface of the planet
This leads to global warming and
climate change

7
What is global warming?
Increase in the average temperature
of Earth's near-surface air and
oceans since the mid-20th century
and its projected continuation.
Global surface temperature increased
0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F)
between the start and the end of the
20th century.
Wikipedia. 2010. Global warming. Last modified March 18, 2010, 1621. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cnote_A

8
Natural greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Naturally occurring GHGs:
Water vapor (H2O),
Carbon dioxide (CO2),
Nitrous oxide (N2O),
Methane (CH4),
Ozone (O3).

9
Human-made
greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Sulfur hexaflouride (SF6)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

10
Relative contribution of GHGs
to global warming

The greenhouse effect
11
Greenpeace. 2005. Image. The greenhouse effect. Illustration of the greenhouse
effect.
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/photosvideos/photos/greenhouse_effect?
mode=send

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide (CO2) - Mauna Loa or Keeling curve
12
Wikipedia. 2010. Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg. Own work, from Image:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide.png, uploaded in Commons by Nils
Simon under licence GFDL & CC-NC-SA ; itself created by Robert A. Rohde from NOAA published data and is incorporated into the Global
Warming Art project.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg

13
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2
January 2011: 391.19 ppm
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

14
Evidence of climate change
comes from:
Data on global average surface
temperatures;
Global average sea level rise
The thermal expansion of the water in
the oceans plus the amount of glacier
ice that has melted and that has led by
extension to a rise in the level of the
oceans around the world
Northern hemisphere snow cover.

Changes in temperature, sea level and
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Northern Hemisphere snow cover

16
Fluctuations in T (red line) and in the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 (yellow) over the past 649,000 years
US. EPA. 2009. Climate change science. Figure 1: Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Temperature. 8 Sept. 2009.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc_fig1.html

Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern
data over a period of 10,000 years before
17
the present

Global and continental temperature change
18

Other explanations for climate change
19
Natural phenomena
Long range natural cycle of climate
change

20
Mapping the global variation in
CO2 emissions
UNDP. 2007. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. Map. 1.1. UNDP, New
York. 399 pp.

21
Most important sources of
GHG emissions
1. Fossil fuel related energy emissions
2. Emissions from land-use changes
and then agriculture where much of
the releases are due to methane
release and nitrous oxides escaping
from the soil surface of cultivated
land.

Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic
22
GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq.
(Forestry includes deforestation)
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

23
World Resources Institute. 2005. Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT), Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International
Climate Policy, December 2005. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1996 (data for 2000). http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world-greenhouse-
gas-emissions-by-sector1

24
Group discussion
Can ICTs have a role in reducing
emissions from these sectors?
How?
Choose 2 sectors and discuss how
ICTs can limit or help avoid GHG
emissions

Life Cycle GHG Emissions for Selected Power
25
Generation Technologies
IAEA. 2010. Judge Nuclear. IAEA Bulletin51-2, April 2010. Pp. 16.19. http://www.iaea.or.at/OurWork/ST/NE/judge-nuclear.html

26
Shares of Non-Fossil Sources in the
Electricity Sector and CO2 Intensities for
Selected Countries in 2006
IAEA. 2010. Judge Nuclear. IAEA Bulletin51-2, April 2010. Pp. 16.19. http://www.iaea.or.at/OurWork/ST/NE/judge-nuclear.html l

IPCC Projections of surface warming as a
27
result of increasing GHG emissions

28
Fossil fuel emissions: actual vs. IPCC
scenarios
Global Carbon Project. 2009. Carbon 2008. Budget 08 Released on 17 November 2009. GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium. PowerPoint
presentation. GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium. 38 slides.

29
Growth in fossil fuel demand
Growth in fossil fuel demand is
following the worst case scenarios
predicted by a variety of different
experts

30
What is driving energy demand?
Growing population & affluence
Shift in global growth to emerging
markets

What is affecting energy prices? (1)
31
Price, availability and security of
energy supplies
Environmental risks associated with
hard to access oil resources
Offshore & deep sea drilling
Drilling in sensitive ecosystems: the
Arctic/Antarctic, coastal areas, etc.
Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands, heavy
oil)
Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas

What is affecting energy prices? (2)
32
Global security issues
Policy uncertainty on fossil fuels &
renewables
Investment paralysis in the West
China votes for investing in both fossil
fuels & renewables!

Growth in World primary energy demand to
33
2035, IEA New Policies Scenario
IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides.
http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf

The impact of climate change (1)
The efficiency of CO2 sinks is down
Atmospheric CO2 is being added at
the rate of 2ppm annually
Methane up after 10 years of being
stable
Carbonate calcium walls of marine
life are down. The oceans are getting
more acidic.
34

The impact of climate change (2)
Oceans have warmed up faster
Arctic sea ice is at a low peak
Greenland ice sheets have decreased
in size
Fossil fuel emissions are above worst
case scenarios
Deforestation emissions continue and
are high
35

36
Examples of impacts associated with global average
temperature change (Impacts will vary by extent of
adaptation, rate of temperature change and socio-economic
pathway)
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Impacts from increasing GHGs levels
in the atmosphere
37 [1] Stern, N. 2006. Stern Review on the economics of climate change (pre-publication edition).
Executive summary. HM Treasury. London. 27 pp. http://www.hm-treasury.
gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

38
In the Asia Pacific region, the
following changes are anticipated (1):
By the 2050s, freshwater availability
in Central, South, East and South-
East Asia, particularly in large river
basins, is projected to decrease.
Coastal areas, especially heavily
populated megadelta regions in
South, East and South-East Asia, will
be at greatest risk due to increased
flooding from the sea and, in some
megadeltas, flooding from the rivers.

39
In the Asia Pacific region, the
following changes are anticipated (2):
Climate change is projected to compound
the pressures on natural resources and
the environment associated with rapid
urbanisation, industrialisation and
economic development.
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to
diarrheal disease primarily associated with
floods and droughts are expected to rise
in East, South and South-East Asia due to
projected changes in the hydrological
cycle.

In small island states the following
40
changes are predicted
Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate
inundation, storm surge, erosion and
other coastal hazards, thus threatening
vital infrastructure, settlements and
facilities that support the livelihood of
island communities.
Deterioration in coastal conditions, for
example through erosion of beaches and
coral bleaching, is expected to affect local
resources.

In small island states the following
41
changes are predicted
By mid-century, climate change is
expected to reduce water resources in
many small islands, e.g. in the Caribbean
and Pacific, to the point where they
become insufficient to meet demand
during low-rainfall periods.
With higher temperatures, increased
invasion by non-native species is expected
to occur, particularly on mid- and high-latitude
islands.

Solutions going forward: two issues &
42
how to deal with them
Increasing demand for energy
Will need both fossil fuels & new and
alternate energy
Need to limit GHG emissions
Need to replace emissions from fossil
fuel emitting sources

43
We have a problem!
Renewables are plentiful but require
massive investment to fully replace
fossil fuels
23,000 CMO / yr. from solar.. but…
Now using about 0.2 CMO/yr fm solar
For 1 CMO solar: 70,000 x 100 MW
Spain Andasol solar thermal @ $ 14
Trillion
27 Andasol projects/ week for 50 yrs!
At present rate of E demand – need 270
CMO by 2050!

44
Predicted global energy use in CMO
under 4 different scenarios
Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis.
Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa

Proportion of energy expressed in CMO from
different primary sources (2006 data)
45
Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis.
Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa

46
IEA estimate of renewable and other power
technology investments for lowest GHG emissions
[IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Lisbon, 21 October 2010.
http://www.renewable.pt/pt/Noticias/Documents/2010_Nobuo_Tanaka.pdf

47
Global change & global action
Lack of unified commitment to
UNFCCC process does not mean lack
of action…

The top ten countries leading investment in
48
clean energy technologies
[Pew Charitable Trusts. 2010. The clean energy economy. China Leads G-20 Members in Clean Energy Finance and Investment.
http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/cleanenergyeconomy/pr_24mar2010.html

49
Some elements of a solution
No silver bullet (no single solution)
Mix of approaches needed
Efficiency and conservation very very
important
Transition from fossil fuels with focus
on renewables & efficiency, CCS, +/-
nuclear
WWF 2011: possible to (mostly)
replace fossil fuels with renewables
by 2050... without nuclear or CCS

The past contribution of energy efficiency
50
Segar, C. 2009. International energy co-operation and global energy security. International Energy Agency (IEA). Session on “Ensuring the
sustainability of energy supply chain”, Conference on Strengthening Energy Security in the OSCE area, Bratislava, 6 – 7 July 2009.
PowerPoint presentation. http://www.osce.org/documents/eea/2009/07/38666_en.pdf

Energy efficiency will have major role to
51
play in achieving low C future (IEA)
IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides.
http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf

ICTs enhance efficiency & facilitate
53
conservation by (1):
Process efficiency
Doing things faster
Use less energy  emit less C
Connecting everything:
The Internet of Things
Measuring everything:
The Internet of Things
More info on energy use

ICTs enhance efficiency & facilitate
54
conservation by (2):
Controlling everything
Smart controls
Connect & control all motors & energy
consumption (embedded controls)
More options to reduce consumption:
smart logistics /transport & cities

Different measures and technologies will be
needed to get the world onto a 2°C path
55
[World Bank. 2010. World Development Report. Development and Climate Change. Figure 8. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 439 pp.

IEA: Key technologies for reducing CO2
emissions under the BLUE Map scenario
56
[IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. OECD/IEA, Paris, 20 pp.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/etp2010sum.pdf

Module 10 - Annex 1 & annex 2: Definition & causes of climate change & impact on Asia Pacific region 20110825

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Module 10 - Annex 1 & annex 2: Definition & causes of climate change & impact on Asia Pacific region 20110825