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4th Annual Power & Alternative Energy Law
                          Conference
                          Houston, Texas
        Achieving Energy Transformation in Electricity and
          Transportation: From Innovation to Deployment




Presented by:
Robert H. Edwards, Jr.
Deputy General Counsel
for Energy Policy
United States Department of Energy
12 May 2011                                                  1
Overview

• The Energy Challenge – U.S. Perspective
• Energy Transformation is Challenging and Complicated
• Private Sector Investment, Innovation and Recovery Act Jump
  Start Energy Transformation
   – Economics of new technologies must eventually prevail without subsidy
   – Business and finance models must provide for return of and on capital
• Challenges to Keep Energy Transformation Going
   – Capital for infrastructure investments
   – Managing risks and returns
   – Cross industry solutions




                                                                             2
Investment in Renewable Energy and Clean Technologies is Needed
      Now to Create 21st Century Energy Technology Industries and Jobs, Reduce
         Dependence on Foreign Oil and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions



• The U.S. sends $1 Billion per day overseas to purchase foreign oil
• While the U.S. manufactured more than 40% of the world’s solar cells in
  the mid-1990s, today we produce just 7%
• When the Recovery Act passed, there were only two small advanced
  battery facilities in U.S., and 98% of production was based in Asia
• Long-term results of current deficiencies in our energy system include:

    • Loss of leadership in energy innovation   • National security problems
    • Oil-driven recessions                     • Increasing CO2 emissions
    • Environmental degradation                 • Trade deficits




                                                                               3
Events During the Recent Past Have Increased
       the Need for Accelerated Energy Transformation
        to Improve U.S. Energy Security and Economic
                        Performance

• April 2010: The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

• Developments in the Middle East and North Africa

• March 2011: Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan




                                                        4
Our Energy Challenge



• Electric Sector
   – 100 year old architecture and technologies
   – Relies heavily on old coal burning power plants
   – Industry is fragmented
   – Industry regulatory structure leads to slow adoption of new
      technologies

• Transportation Sector
   – Relies almost exclusively on oil
   – Dependence on foreign oil has increased over the decades
   – Oil prices are volatile and trending upward
   – Existing infrastructure makes transformation to alternative fuels
      difficult and slow
                                                                         5
Prudent Development of the Full Range of United
          States Energy Resources Is Important

• The Administration has made clear that prudently increasing
  U.S. domestic oil production is an integral part of the solution
• Recent technology innovations have given us the opportunity
  to tap large reserves of shale gas
• Environmentally sound development of shale gas can assist in
  accelerating energy transformation




                                                                     6
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION IS
CHALLENGING AND COMPLICATED




                              7
Energy Change Is Slow
                         US ENERGY SUPPLY SINCE 1850
100%                                                                      Renewables
90%
                                                                          Nuclear
80%
                                                                          Gas
70%
                                                                          Oil
60%
                                                                          Hydro
50%
                                                                          Coal
40%

30%
                                                                          Wood
20%

10%

 0%
       1850     1880        1910        1940   1970           2000


                                                                          Source: EIA
 1880 – Edison Long Lasting Lightbulb                 1908 – Model T
 1918 – GE Starts Gas Turbine Division                2008 – Tesla EV Roadster
 1950s – Nuclear Power Plants Come Online                                           8
IT Moves Much Faster Than Energy
SALES OF PERSONAL AUDIO/VIDEO SINCE 2000




 •   MP3/MP4 Players
       – Sales CAGR (2004-2009): 30.2%
 •   Google
       – Sales CAGR (2004-2008): 61.7%
 •   Facebook
       – Value CAGR (2005-2009): 182%

                                             9
Why is Energy Change Slower than
               Information Technology Change?
•   Infrastructure
     – Existing energy delivery systems for oil (pipelines, gas stations) create
         barriers to entry for fuels unable to use the existing infrastructure
     – Disruptive technologies may require major infrastructure investments
         (charging infrastructure for electric vehicles)
•   Legacy Assets
     – Fully depreciated old coal fired power plants make it challenging for
         renewables and clean coal to be cost competitive
•   Utilities and Public Utility Commissions – “The Gordian Knot”
     •   50 State PUCs + Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
     •   Historically regulation has properly focused on reliability and cost
     •   Fragmented and slow regulatory structure slows innovation
     •   Need regulatory innovation to allow for roll-out of
           • Smart Grid
           • Utility Scale Battery Storage
           • New services and business models

                                                                                   10
How Can We Make Energy
                 Transformation Faster?
•   Pathways to Scale
    – Technological Innovation/Acceptance/Adoption
    – Financing Innovation/Infrastructure/Consumer

•   Sector/Industry Organization
    –   Industry incumbents or new entrants to take on new roles
         –   Electric vehicles – utilities and auto manufacturers share the same
             customers
         –   Smart Grid – who will own customer?
•   Government Policy
    –   Coherent and stable government policy
         – Clean Energy Standard
         – Consistent tax credit support for new technologies
         – Public utility commissions

                                                                                   11
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
 IN THE ELECTRIC SECTOR




                          12
Our Current Electric System, Technologies,
                           and Architecture are 100 Years Old
                         Edison Would Recognize Most of the System


                               Alternating
   Central                       Current              Distribution            End
    Power                     High Voltage
                                                      Companies              Users
                              Transmission
   Stations                       Lines
                 Solar,
              Geothermal,
                             •   Transmission     •   3,100 Utilities    • 100% availability
    Wind 2%
                  >1%            congestion and
    Hydro
    6.6%                         constraints      • Southern Co.         • Lowest ¢/kWh
Nuclear                                             serves 4.4M
 20%
                             • Need more            customers            • Unaware of
                               transmission                                potential of
                               for renewables     • Altamaha EMC           smart grid
                                                    rural electric co-
  Natural                                           op serves 19,648
   Gas
   21%
                                                    customers in
                                                                                           13
              Liquids
                1%                                  Lyons, GA
The Challenges are Further Complicated as
Different Regions of the United States Use
Different Fuel Mixes to Generate Electricity




                                               14
In Addition, There Is Not a Single National Grid:
Approximately 60% of the U.S. Electric Power Supply is
Managed by ISO/RTOs While the Southeastern Region
    Remains Regulated and Vertically Integrated




                              Source: ISO/RTO Council
                              Published by: U.S. Energy Information
                              Administration

                                                                      15
A Green and Sustainable 21st Century Electric
    System Will Have Many of the Following Features….




                Robust                                     Electric &
             Transmission   Utility Scale                Plug-In Hybrid
Renewable      Capacity       Storage                       Vehicles
Generation                                  Smart Grid
                Smart          Smart                        Smart
             Transmission     Storage                     Consumers




                                                                          16
How Fast Can Renewables be Integrated into
                   the Electric Grid?
     • “Expert” Projections Vary Widely

                                        Renewables and Distributed Generation
                                          Percent of Total Generation in 2030
Charles River Associates                                 16%
Environmental Protection Agency                          16%
Union of Concerned Scientists                            24%
National Renewable Energy Laboratory                     30%
Google.org                                               67%


   Let’s look at the electric grid on an end-to-end basis to understand how
           we can increase the rate of penetration of renewables. . .



                                                                                17
To Accelerate Transformation in the Electric Sector
        the Administration has Deployed Resources Through                       Renewable
                                                                                Generation
                          a Range of Tools

•   Recovery Act Tax Credits and Other Incentives
     – Extension of the production tax credit (PTC) through December 31, 2012, and
        the innovation of the § 1603 “Cash Grant In-Lieu of Tax Credit,” for electricity
        produced from renewable energy sources
     – The § 1603 program, which allows clean energy producers to monetize tax
        credits in the form of a cash grant which becomes available as soon as a
        renewable energy project is “Placed In Service”
          • As of April 6, 2011:
               – total number of projects funded = 7,957
               – total § 1603 funding = $6.9 Billion
               – total private and federal investment in § 1603 projects = $23.2 Billion
               – total installed capacity of funded projects = 10.4 GW (91% wind, 4% solar)
               – total estimated electricity generation from funded projects = 27.5 TWh




                                                                                              18
Selected 2010 & 2011 Loan Guarantee
         Projects Accelerate Deployment of                                 Renewable
                                                                           Generation
              Renewable Generation…
• Solar Generation
  –   Abengoa Solar, Inc., $1.446 billion (250 MW) - Arizona
  –   Agua Caliente, $967 million (290 MW) - Arizona
  –   BrightSource Energy, Inc., $1.6 billion (392 MW) - California
  –   Solar Trust of America (Solar Millenium), $2.105 billion (484 MW) - California

• Wind Generation
  – Caithness Shepherds Flat, $1.3 billion (845 MW) - Oregon
  – Kahuku Wind Power, LLC, $117 million (30 MW) - Hawaii
  – Record Hill Wind, $102 million (50 MW) - Maine




                                                                                        19
US Solar Electric Installations: 2007-2010
                 2500




                 2000




                 1500
 Cumulative MW




                                                                CSP Cumulative
                 1000                                           PV Cumulative




                 500




                    0
                        2007   2008          2009   2010
                                      Year


Solar PV installations in 2011 are expected to be twice
2010 levels.
                                                           Data source: SEIA
                                                                                 20
US Wind Installations: 2007-2010
                  35000


                  30000


                  25000


                  20000
  Cumulative MW




                  15000


                  10000


                  5000


                      0
                          2007   2008          2009       2010

                                        Year


The U.S. wind industry has contributed over 35% to all new power
generating capacity created in the nation over the past four
years.
                                                      Data source: AWEA
                                                                          21
Robust and Reliable Transmission and
                                                                                 Robust
           Distribution Networks Are Essential to the                         Transmission
                                                                                Capacity
           Development, Integration, and Delivery of                             Smart
                                                                              Transmission
         Renewable Resources in the Electric Sector . . .

•   Bonneville Power Authority (BPA) – McNary-Day Transmission Line
     – When energized in early 2012, loan guarantee project will allow BPA to
        provide 625 MW of transmission service, including 575 MW of new wind
        energy
•   Western Area Power Authority (WAPA) – Montana-Alberta Tie Limited Project
    (MATL)
     – WAPA’s first Recovery Act project will bring new transmission capacity online
        to support 300 to 600 MW of wind energy, enough to power 150,000 to
        300,000 homes
•   Southwest Intertie Project (SWIP) – Loan Guarantee Program
     – Transmission project that will carry approximately 2,000 MW of electricity and
        enable wind and solar resources in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada to power the
        Southwest and California markets



                                                                                             22
Robust and Reliable Transmission and Distribution
       Networks Are Essential to the Development,                                Robust
                                                                              Transmission
                                                                                Capacity
    Integration, and Delivery of Renewable Resources
                                                                                 Smart
             in the Electric Sector (cont’d). . .                             Transmission

•   Nine-Agency MOU
     – October 2009 agreement will expedite the siting and construction of qualified
        electric transmission infrastructure in the U.S.




•   Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) – Transmission Planning
     – Six Recovery Act awards will promote collaborative long-term analysis and
         planning for the Eastern, Western and Texas electricity interconnections,
         representing the first-ever effort to take a collaborative, comprehensive look
         across each of the three transmission interconnections




                                                                                             23
Utility Scale
               Advanced Batteries & Storage                               Storage
                                                                           Smart
                                                                          Storage


• Kahuku Wind Power, LLC
    – Advanced batteries used to smooth energy production from major wind farm
      being integrated into a closed loop transmission grid.
• Flywheels: Loan Programs Office (LPO) – Beacon Power
    – Technology focused on grid frequency regulation, with flywheels helping to
      maintain the necessary balance between energy supply and demand by
      effectively “recycling” electricity.
• Compressed Air Storage: Advanced Research Project Agency – Energy
  (ARPA-E)
    – At utility scale, energy generated during periods of low energy demand (off-
      peak) can be released to meet higher demand (peak load) periods.
• Advanced Batteries: Vehicle Technologies Program
    – Rechargeable batteries used for propulsion of advanced vehicles
    – As a result of ARRA investments, the U.S. will have the capacity to produce up
      to 20 to 40 percent of the world’s advanced batteries (prior to the Act, 98
      percent of all production was in Asia).
                                                                                        24
Recovery Act Investments Matched By Private
           Sector Investment Jumpstarts Smart Grid               Smart
                                                                  Grid

Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy                 $
Reliability                                           Millions
Smart Grid Investment Grant Program; ≤3 years           $3,400
Smart Grid Demonstrations; 3-5 years                      $615
Interoperability Framework Development by NIST             $10
Resource Assessment and Interconnection-Level              $80
Transmission Analysis and Planning
State Electricity Regulators Assistance                    $50
Enhancing State Government Energy Assurance                $55
Capabilities and Planning for Smart Grid Resiliency


Workforce Development                                     $100


                                                                         25
Recovery Act Smart Grid Investment Grants
      Transform Electricity Delivery                                                             Smart Grid



Smart Grid Systems   Numbers                   Improvements                         Impacts
  and Equipment      of Units
                     (self-reported
                       estimates)

 Networked Phasor        877          • Near-nationwide coverage
 Measurement Units                    • 6X the 166 existing networked
                                                                           Enhanced situational
                                      PMUs
                                                                          awareness and electric
Smart Transformers    205,983         • Enables preventative               system reliability and
                                      maintenance                               resiliency

    Automated            671          • 5% of 12,466 transmission and
    Substations                       distribution substations in the
                                      U.S.
   Load Control       176,814         • Enables peak demand
     Devices                          reductions                        1444 MWs of peak demand
                                                                           reduction per year
 Smart Thermostats    170,218         • Enables peak demand                  (self-reported estimates)
                                      reductions
   Smart Meters      18,179,912       • 13% of the 142 million
                                      customers in the U.S.             Transformational changes in
                                                                          consumer behavior and
  In-Home Display    1,183, 265       • Enables customer empowerment        energy consumption
       Units
  PHEVs/Charging       12/100         • Accelerates market entry          Begins the path toward
     Stations                                                              energy independence
                                                                                                         26
IT IS ALL CONNECTED . . .
                        Cross Industry/Horizontal Relationships Can Speed Change                                                      Electric &
                                                                                                                                       Plug-In
                         Electric Vehicles Will Depend on Smart Grid Technology,                                                        Hybrid
                                       And in Turn Increase its Value                                                                  Vehicles
    Smart Grid Technology Will Enable the “Smart Charging” Needed to Support Electric                                                   Smart
                                  Vehicles, for example:                                                                              Consumers
         Peak Load Management to deal with the “5PM Surge” when every one returns home and plugs in
                        Consumer information to incentivize off -peak charging at night


                                      Smart Grid
            Generate          Transmit                Distribute               Consume                    • Optimized Energy Demand
                                                                                                          • Efficient Supply
         Solar, Wind    Super Conductors        AMI                    Home Area Networks             • Integrated Multiple Low
         Hydro          Recloser Controls       Mesh Networks          Energy Displays
                                                                                                            Carbon Energy Sources
         Geothermal     Sensors                 WiMAX                  Meter Data Mgt (MDMS)
         Battery                                 Broadband              CPP and TOU Pricing
                                                                          Automated Demand




                                          Integration with Grid                Integration with Vehicle




                                                                  Charge Point          Advanced          EV/PHEVs
                                                                                        Batteries
                                  Grid Impact &            Infrastructure &                                      Consumer
                                                                                       Energy Storage
                                   Load Mgmt                 Technology                                          Adoption


              The systems integration and IT challenges are enormous when we
                  consider the end-to-end requirements of the electric grid
                                                                                                                                                   27
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR




                               28
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE)

•   In January 2009, President Obama signed a memorandum instructing the U.S.
    Department of Transportation (DOT) and the National Highway Traffic Safety
    Administration (NHTSA) to finalize a rule - published in March 2009 - prescribing
    increased fuel economy for model year 2011 cars and light duty trucks,
    increasing CAFE standards for the first time since 1990
      – Cars and Light Duty Trucks: In May 2010, DOT and EPA published additional
         amendments to CAFE that will significantly increase mileage requirements
         by 2016 to 35.5 mpg, a 40% improvement over current standards
      – Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks: In October 2010, DOT and EPA proposed
         fuel efficiency and global warming standards for these vehicles for the first
         time, which have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by nearly 250
         metric tons and save 500 million barrels of oil over the life of vehicles sold
         between 2014 and 2018
•   Improving efficiency of internal combustion engines
      – Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Programs
      – EERE Vehicles Technology Program


                                                                                          29
Through Recovery Act and Other Programs DOE is
       Supporting Biofuels from Demonstration to
                   Commercialization
• As part of the Recovery Act, DOE has awarded cost-share grants to 19
  integrated biorefinery projects throughout the U.S.
• Projects will accelerate the construction and operation of pilot,
  demonstration, and commercial scale facilities
• Biofuels and bioproducts produced through these projects will displace
  petroleum and accelerate the industry's ability to achieve production
  targets mandated by the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
• The nearly $564 million in Recovery Act funding for these projects will be
  matched with more than $700 million in private and non-Federal cost-
  share funds, for total project investments of almost $1.3 billion
• DOE is leveraging its national laboratories, universities, and the private
  sector to help improve biofuels reliability and overcome key technical
  challenges, with the goal of creating third-generation biofuels such as
  green gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels

                                                                               30
The Renewable Fuel Standard:
              A Framework for the Biofuels Industry
•   The original RFS program (RFS1) was established under the Energy Policy Act of
    2005 and required 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel to be blended into gasoline
    by 2012.
•   RFS2 was established under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
    (EISA) and increased the volume of renewable fuel required to be blended into
    transportation fuel from 12.5 billion gallons by 2012 to 36 billion gallons by 2022.
•   On December 9, 2010, EPA issued final regulations for the volume requirements
    that will apply under the RFS2 program in calendar year 2011.

                                  Applicable Volumes for 2011
                                          Statutory Volume for   Final Actual
                                          2011                   Volume for 2011
                     Cellulosic Biofuel       250 mill gal            6.6 mill gal

                     Bio-mass Based           0.80 bill gal          0.80 bill gal
                         Diesel
                     Advanced Biofuel         1.35 bill gal          1.35 bill gal

                    Renewable Biofuel         13.95 bill gal         13.95 bill gal
                                                                                           31
Recovery Act: $2.4 Billion Directly Benefitting
                   Vehicle Electrification

$1.5 Billion in funding
to accelerate the
manufacturing and
deployment of the
next generation of
U.S. batteries
$500 Million in
funding for electric-
drive components
manufacturing
$400 Million in
funding for
transportation
electrification
                                                          32
DOE Initiatives: Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids
                       • $8.4 Billion from DOE’s Advanced
                         Technology Vehicle Manufacturing
                         (ATVM) loan program and $4 Billion in
                         Recovery Act funding, is supporting a
                         broad portfolio of clean energy
                         transportation technologies.
                       • Products and technologies range from
                         plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles
                         to natural gas vehicles, advanced
                         biofuels, as well as improvements to
                         improve internal combustion engine
                         efficiency.
                       • DOE is providing critical long-term
                         financing to:
                            – Ford Motor Company, $5.9 billion
                            – Nissan - $1.4 billion
                            – Tesla Motors - $465 million
                            – Fisker Automotive - $528.7 million

                                                                 33
How Fast Can the Market Share of Plug-In Hybrids and
                   Electric Vehicles Grow?
               “Expert” Projections Vary Widely
          Comparison of 2020 Global EV /
            PHEV Sales % Forecasts

                                           Key Forecast
                                           Differences Emanate
                                           from Differences in:
                                           • Component Cost
                                             Reductions (Primary
                                            Difference)
                                           • Energy Cost
                                             Forecasts
                                           • Future Environmental
                                             Policy
                                           • Consumer
                                             Acceptance




*Includes HEV, PHEV, and EV




                                                                    34
Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component
            Manufacturing Initiative

       Company                                Project Location

       Johnson Controls, Inc.                 Holland, MI
                                              Lebanon, OR
                                              (Entek)
       A123 Systems, Inc.                     Romulus, MI
                                              Brownstown, MI
       KD ABG MI, LLC                         Midland, MI
       (Dow Kokam)
       Compact Power, Inc. (on behalf of LG   St. Clair, MI
       Chem, Ltd.)                            Pontiac, MI
                                              Holland, MI
       EnerDel, Inc.                          Indianapolis, IN
       General Motors Corporation             Brownstown, MI
       Saft America, Inc.                     Jacksonville, FL
       Exide Technologies with Axion Power    Bristol, TN
       International                          Columbus, GA
       East Penn Manufacturing Co.            Lyon Station, PA




                                                                 35
Vehicle Technologies Program: Advanced Technologies for
                               High Efficiency Clean Vehicles

Hybrid Electric                Advanced Combustion Engine R&D    Tech Introduction
Systems                        • Low Temp. Combustion R&D        • EPAct/EISA
• Advanced Batteries           • Emission Controls               • Rulemaking
• Power Electronics            • Light- & Heavy-Duty Engines     • Deployment
• Inverters                    • Solid State Energy Conversion   • Student
• Controllers &                • Health Impacts                   Competitions
 Motors                                                          • Graduate Automotive
• Systems Analysis                                                Technology Education
 and Testing                                                     • Education
• Aerodynamics, Rolling                                          • Safety, Codes, & Standards
 Resistance & Accessory
 Loads
• Validation



                                                                 Materials Technology
Fuel Technologies
• Bio-Based Fuels                                                • Lightweight Structures
• Clean/Efficient Combustion                                     • Composite Development
  Fuel Characteristics                                           • Processing/Recycling/
• Fischer-Tropsch Fuels &                                          Manufacturing
  Blendstocks                                                    • Design Data Test Methods
• Advanced Lubricants                                            • High Temperature
                                                                  Materials Laboratory




                                                                                                36
Some Examples of Progress . . .
•   “Ford introduced the new Focus, not at an auto show but at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas,
    a symbolic break in tradition for a car company eager to supercharge a field crowded with plug-in
    competition. For Ford, it's a back-to-the-future story. Henry Ford's wife drove an electric car back in 1914,
    and now their great grandson Bill Ford will drive an electric vehicle they couldn't have imagined.”
                                                   • ABC World News, January 7, 2011

•   “*Nissan is+ expanding its production of the Leaf to meet an almost insatiable demand for the electric car. .
    . . The company said it is on track to deliver 20,000 Nissan Leaf cars to people who have reserved them by
    September.”
                                                     • GreenBeat, May 3, 2011

•   “*Tesla+ CEO Elon Musk said the company may raise additional funding for its third electric car, the Model X
    electric sports utility vehicle, according to reports Thursday. . . . Tesla is currently working on its second car,
    the Model S sedan, which is aimed at first-time electric car buyers. That model is expected to hit the
    market in the summer of next year.”
                                                     • Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal , May 5, 2011




                                                                                                                          37
Some Examples of Progress
                  (cont’d). . .
•   “The *A123 plant opening+ was heralded as a sign that manufacturing isn't dead in Michigan,
    that public-private partnerships are the answer in today's global marketplace and that
    America is on its way to ending the country's dependence on foreign oil.”
                                       • Zlati Meyer (Detroit Free Press), September 14, 2010


•   “Nissan’s massive new lithium-ion battery plant is continuing to take shape in Smyrna
    *Tennessee+. . . . The facility is being built next to Nissan’s existing Smyrna plant, which is
    being retooled to manufacture the all-electric Leaf. Production of the Leaf is scheduled to
    begin in Smyrna in late 2012, requiring the battery plant to be operating about three months
    prior. At full-capacity, the plant will be capable of producing 200,000 lithium-ion batteries
    per year.”
                                       • Nashville Business Journal, March 18, 2011


•   “Johnson Controls Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter earnings climbed 29 percent on higher revenue
    as all three of its business segments reported double-digit sales increases amid a recovering
    global economy.”
                                       • Manufacturing.Net, April 25, 2011




                                                                                                      38
CONCLUSION



• Our Energy Challenge
   – Old infrastructure
   – Heavily dependent on fossil fuels
   – Transformation is slow

• We Can Accelerate Change
   – Technological innovation
   – Financing innovation
   – Innovation in business models
   – Working the verticals
   – Integration across the horizontals


                                                39
DISCUSSION

          THANK YOU
         Robert H. Edwards, Jr.
Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy
  United States Department of Energy
          Tel: +1-202-586-6758
      Robert.Edwards@hq.doe.gov
             12 May 2011
                                           40

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Energy Transformation in the United States -- Houston Conference May 2011

  • 1. 4th Annual Power & Alternative Energy Law Conference Houston, Texas Achieving Energy Transformation in Electricity and Transportation: From Innovation to Deployment Presented by: Robert H. Edwards, Jr. Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy United States Department of Energy 12 May 2011 1
  • 2. Overview • The Energy Challenge – U.S. Perspective • Energy Transformation is Challenging and Complicated • Private Sector Investment, Innovation and Recovery Act Jump Start Energy Transformation – Economics of new technologies must eventually prevail without subsidy – Business and finance models must provide for return of and on capital • Challenges to Keep Energy Transformation Going – Capital for infrastructure investments – Managing risks and returns – Cross industry solutions 2
  • 3. Investment in Renewable Energy and Clean Technologies is Needed Now to Create 21st Century Energy Technology Industries and Jobs, Reduce Dependence on Foreign Oil and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions • The U.S. sends $1 Billion per day overseas to purchase foreign oil • While the U.S. manufactured more than 40% of the world’s solar cells in the mid-1990s, today we produce just 7% • When the Recovery Act passed, there were only two small advanced battery facilities in U.S., and 98% of production was based in Asia • Long-term results of current deficiencies in our energy system include: • Loss of leadership in energy innovation • National security problems • Oil-driven recessions • Increasing CO2 emissions • Environmental degradation • Trade deficits 3
  • 4. Events During the Recent Past Have Increased the Need for Accelerated Energy Transformation to Improve U.S. Energy Security and Economic Performance • April 2010: The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill • Developments in the Middle East and North Africa • March 2011: Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan 4
  • 5. Our Energy Challenge • Electric Sector – 100 year old architecture and technologies – Relies heavily on old coal burning power plants – Industry is fragmented – Industry regulatory structure leads to slow adoption of new technologies • Transportation Sector – Relies almost exclusively on oil – Dependence on foreign oil has increased over the decades – Oil prices are volatile and trending upward – Existing infrastructure makes transformation to alternative fuels difficult and slow 5
  • 6. Prudent Development of the Full Range of United States Energy Resources Is Important • The Administration has made clear that prudently increasing U.S. domestic oil production is an integral part of the solution • Recent technology innovations have given us the opportunity to tap large reserves of shale gas • Environmentally sound development of shale gas can assist in accelerating energy transformation 6
  • 8. Energy Change Is Slow US ENERGY SUPPLY SINCE 1850 100% Renewables 90% Nuclear 80% Gas 70% Oil 60% Hydro 50% Coal 40% 30% Wood 20% 10% 0% 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 Source: EIA 1880 – Edison Long Lasting Lightbulb 1908 – Model T 1918 – GE Starts Gas Turbine Division 2008 – Tesla EV Roadster 1950s – Nuclear Power Plants Come Online 8
  • 9. IT Moves Much Faster Than Energy SALES OF PERSONAL AUDIO/VIDEO SINCE 2000 • MP3/MP4 Players – Sales CAGR (2004-2009): 30.2% • Google – Sales CAGR (2004-2008): 61.7% • Facebook – Value CAGR (2005-2009): 182% 9
  • 10. Why is Energy Change Slower than Information Technology Change? • Infrastructure – Existing energy delivery systems for oil (pipelines, gas stations) create barriers to entry for fuels unable to use the existing infrastructure – Disruptive technologies may require major infrastructure investments (charging infrastructure for electric vehicles) • Legacy Assets – Fully depreciated old coal fired power plants make it challenging for renewables and clean coal to be cost competitive • Utilities and Public Utility Commissions – “The Gordian Knot” • 50 State PUCs + Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) • Historically regulation has properly focused on reliability and cost • Fragmented and slow regulatory structure slows innovation • Need regulatory innovation to allow for roll-out of • Smart Grid • Utility Scale Battery Storage • New services and business models 10
  • 11. How Can We Make Energy Transformation Faster? • Pathways to Scale – Technological Innovation/Acceptance/Adoption – Financing Innovation/Infrastructure/Consumer • Sector/Industry Organization – Industry incumbents or new entrants to take on new roles – Electric vehicles – utilities and auto manufacturers share the same customers – Smart Grid – who will own customer? • Government Policy – Coherent and stable government policy – Clean Energy Standard – Consistent tax credit support for new technologies – Public utility commissions 11
  • 12. ENERGY TRANSFORMATION IN THE ELECTRIC SECTOR 12
  • 13. Our Current Electric System, Technologies, and Architecture are 100 Years Old Edison Would Recognize Most of the System Alternating Central Current Distribution End Power High Voltage Companies Users Transmission Stations Lines Solar, Geothermal, • Transmission • 3,100 Utilities • 100% availability Wind 2% >1% congestion and Hydro 6.6% constraints • Southern Co. • Lowest ¢/kWh Nuclear serves 4.4M 20% • Need more customers • Unaware of transmission potential of for renewables • Altamaha EMC smart grid rural electric co- Natural op serves 19,648 Gas 21% customers in 13 Liquids 1% Lyons, GA
  • 14. The Challenges are Further Complicated as Different Regions of the United States Use Different Fuel Mixes to Generate Electricity 14
  • 15. In Addition, There Is Not a Single National Grid: Approximately 60% of the U.S. Electric Power Supply is Managed by ISO/RTOs While the Southeastern Region Remains Regulated and Vertically Integrated Source: ISO/RTO Council Published by: U.S. Energy Information Administration 15
  • 16. A Green and Sustainable 21st Century Electric System Will Have Many of the Following Features…. Robust Electric & Transmission Utility Scale Plug-In Hybrid Renewable Capacity Storage Vehicles Generation Smart Grid Smart Smart Smart Transmission Storage Consumers 16
  • 17. How Fast Can Renewables be Integrated into the Electric Grid? • “Expert” Projections Vary Widely Renewables and Distributed Generation Percent of Total Generation in 2030 Charles River Associates 16% Environmental Protection Agency 16% Union of Concerned Scientists 24% National Renewable Energy Laboratory 30% Google.org 67% Let’s look at the electric grid on an end-to-end basis to understand how we can increase the rate of penetration of renewables. . . 17
  • 18. To Accelerate Transformation in the Electric Sector the Administration has Deployed Resources Through Renewable Generation a Range of Tools • Recovery Act Tax Credits and Other Incentives – Extension of the production tax credit (PTC) through December 31, 2012, and the innovation of the § 1603 “Cash Grant In-Lieu of Tax Credit,” for electricity produced from renewable energy sources – The § 1603 program, which allows clean energy producers to monetize tax credits in the form of a cash grant which becomes available as soon as a renewable energy project is “Placed In Service” • As of April 6, 2011: – total number of projects funded = 7,957 – total § 1603 funding = $6.9 Billion – total private and federal investment in § 1603 projects = $23.2 Billion – total installed capacity of funded projects = 10.4 GW (91% wind, 4% solar) – total estimated electricity generation from funded projects = 27.5 TWh 18
  • 19. Selected 2010 & 2011 Loan Guarantee Projects Accelerate Deployment of Renewable Generation Renewable Generation… • Solar Generation – Abengoa Solar, Inc., $1.446 billion (250 MW) - Arizona – Agua Caliente, $967 million (290 MW) - Arizona – BrightSource Energy, Inc., $1.6 billion (392 MW) - California – Solar Trust of America (Solar Millenium), $2.105 billion (484 MW) - California • Wind Generation – Caithness Shepherds Flat, $1.3 billion (845 MW) - Oregon – Kahuku Wind Power, LLC, $117 million (30 MW) - Hawaii – Record Hill Wind, $102 million (50 MW) - Maine 19
  • 20. US Solar Electric Installations: 2007-2010 2500 2000 1500 Cumulative MW CSP Cumulative 1000 PV Cumulative 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Solar PV installations in 2011 are expected to be twice 2010 levels. Data source: SEIA 20
  • 21. US Wind Installations: 2007-2010 35000 30000 25000 20000 Cumulative MW 15000 10000 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year The U.S. wind industry has contributed over 35% to all new power generating capacity created in the nation over the past four years. Data source: AWEA 21
  • 22. Robust and Reliable Transmission and Robust Distribution Networks Are Essential to the Transmission Capacity Development, Integration, and Delivery of Smart Transmission Renewable Resources in the Electric Sector . . . • Bonneville Power Authority (BPA) – McNary-Day Transmission Line – When energized in early 2012, loan guarantee project will allow BPA to provide 625 MW of transmission service, including 575 MW of new wind energy • Western Area Power Authority (WAPA) – Montana-Alberta Tie Limited Project (MATL) – WAPA’s first Recovery Act project will bring new transmission capacity online to support 300 to 600 MW of wind energy, enough to power 150,000 to 300,000 homes • Southwest Intertie Project (SWIP) – Loan Guarantee Program – Transmission project that will carry approximately 2,000 MW of electricity and enable wind and solar resources in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada to power the Southwest and California markets 22
  • 23. Robust and Reliable Transmission and Distribution Networks Are Essential to the Development, Robust Transmission Capacity Integration, and Delivery of Renewable Resources Smart in the Electric Sector (cont’d). . . Transmission • Nine-Agency MOU – October 2009 agreement will expedite the siting and construction of qualified electric transmission infrastructure in the U.S. • Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) – Transmission Planning – Six Recovery Act awards will promote collaborative long-term analysis and planning for the Eastern, Western and Texas electricity interconnections, representing the first-ever effort to take a collaborative, comprehensive look across each of the three transmission interconnections 23
  • 24. Utility Scale Advanced Batteries & Storage Storage Smart Storage • Kahuku Wind Power, LLC – Advanced batteries used to smooth energy production from major wind farm being integrated into a closed loop transmission grid. • Flywheels: Loan Programs Office (LPO) – Beacon Power – Technology focused on grid frequency regulation, with flywheels helping to maintain the necessary balance between energy supply and demand by effectively “recycling” electricity. • Compressed Air Storage: Advanced Research Project Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) – At utility scale, energy generated during periods of low energy demand (off- peak) can be released to meet higher demand (peak load) periods. • Advanced Batteries: Vehicle Technologies Program – Rechargeable batteries used for propulsion of advanced vehicles – As a result of ARRA investments, the U.S. will have the capacity to produce up to 20 to 40 percent of the world’s advanced batteries (prior to the Act, 98 percent of all production was in Asia). 24
  • 25. Recovery Act Investments Matched By Private Sector Investment Jumpstarts Smart Grid Smart Grid Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy $ Reliability Millions Smart Grid Investment Grant Program; ≤3 years $3,400 Smart Grid Demonstrations; 3-5 years $615 Interoperability Framework Development by NIST $10 Resource Assessment and Interconnection-Level $80 Transmission Analysis and Planning State Electricity Regulators Assistance $50 Enhancing State Government Energy Assurance $55 Capabilities and Planning for Smart Grid Resiliency Workforce Development $100 25
  • 26. Recovery Act Smart Grid Investment Grants Transform Electricity Delivery Smart Grid Smart Grid Systems Numbers Improvements Impacts and Equipment of Units (self-reported estimates) Networked Phasor 877 • Near-nationwide coverage Measurement Units • 6X the 166 existing networked Enhanced situational PMUs awareness and electric Smart Transformers 205,983 • Enables preventative system reliability and maintenance resiliency Automated 671 • 5% of 12,466 transmission and Substations distribution substations in the U.S. Load Control 176,814 • Enables peak demand Devices reductions 1444 MWs of peak demand reduction per year Smart Thermostats 170,218 • Enables peak demand (self-reported estimates) reductions Smart Meters 18,179,912 • 13% of the 142 million customers in the U.S. Transformational changes in consumer behavior and In-Home Display 1,183, 265 • Enables customer empowerment energy consumption Units PHEVs/Charging 12/100 • Accelerates market entry Begins the path toward Stations energy independence 26
  • 27. IT IS ALL CONNECTED . . . Cross Industry/Horizontal Relationships Can Speed Change Electric & Plug-In Electric Vehicles Will Depend on Smart Grid Technology, Hybrid And in Turn Increase its Value Vehicles Smart Grid Technology Will Enable the “Smart Charging” Needed to Support Electric Smart Vehicles, for example: Consumers  Peak Load Management to deal with the “5PM Surge” when every one returns home and plugs in  Consumer information to incentivize off -peak charging at night Smart Grid Generate Transmit Distribute Consume • Optimized Energy Demand • Efficient Supply  Solar, Wind  Super Conductors  AMI  Home Area Networks • Integrated Multiple Low  Hydro  Recloser Controls  Mesh Networks  Energy Displays Carbon Energy Sources  Geothermal  Sensors  WiMAX  Meter Data Mgt (MDMS)  Battery  Broadband  CPP and TOU Pricing  Automated Demand Integration with Grid Integration with Vehicle Charge Point Advanced EV/PHEVs Batteries Grid Impact & Infrastructure & Consumer Energy Storage Load Mgmt Technology Adoption The systems integration and IT challenges are enormous when we consider the end-to-end requirements of the electric grid 27
  • 28. ENERGY TRANSFORMATION IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 28
  • 29. Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE) • In January 2009, President Obama signed a memorandum instructing the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to finalize a rule - published in March 2009 - prescribing increased fuel economy for model year 2011 cars and light duty trucks, increasing CAFE standards for the first time since 1990 – Cars and Light Duty Trucks: In May 2010, DOT and EPA published additional amendments to CAFE that will significantly increase mileage requirements by 2016 to 35.5 mpg, a 40% improvement over current standards – Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks: In October 2010, DOT and EPA proposed fuel efficiency and global warming standards for these vehicles for the first time, which have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by nearly 250 metric tons and save 500 million barrels of oil over the life of vehicles sold between 2014 and 2018 • Improving efficiency of internal combustion engines – Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Programs – EERE Vehicles Technology Program 29
  • 30. Through Recovery Act and Other Programs DOE is Supporting Biofuels from Demonstration to Commercialization • As part of the Recovery Act, DOE has awarded cost-share grants to 19 integrated biorefinery projects throughout the U.S. • Projects will accelerate the construction and operation of pilot, demonstration, and commercial scale facilities • Biofuels and bioproducts produced through these projects will displace petroleum and accelerate the industry's ability to achieve production targets mandated by the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). • The nearly $564 million in Recovery Act funding for these projects will be matched with more than $700 million in private and non-Federal cost- share funds, for total project investments of almost $1.3 billion • DOE is leveraging its national laboratories, universities, and the private sector to help improve biofuels reliability and overcome key technical challenges, with the goal of creating third-generation biofuels such as green gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels 30
  • 31. The Renewable Fuel Standard: A Framework for the Biofuels Industry • The original RFS program (RFS1) was established under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and required 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel to be blended into gasoline by 2012. • RFS2 was established under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) and increased the volume of renewable fuel required to be blended into transportation fuel from 12.5 billion gallons by 2012 to 36 billion gallons by 2022. • On December 9, 2010, EPA issued final regulations for the volume requirements that will apply under the RFS2 program in calendar year 2011. Applicable Volumes for 2011 Statutory Volume for Final Actual 2011 Volume for 2011 Cellulosic Biofuel 250 mill gal 6.6 mill gal Bio-mass Based 0.80 bill gal 0.80 bill gal Diesel Advanced Biofuel 1.35 bill gal 1.35 bill gal Renewable Biofuel 13.95 bill gal 13.95 bill gal 31
  • 32. Recovery Act: $2.4 Billion Directly Benefitting Vehicle Electrification $1.5 Billion in funding to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of the next generation of U.S. batteries $500 Million in funding for electric- drive components manufacturing $400 Million in funding for transportation electrification 32
  • 33. DOE Initiatives: Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids • $8.4 Billion from DOE’s Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program and $4 Billion in Recovery Act funding, is supporting a broad portfolio of clean energy transportation technologies. • Products and technologies range from plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles to natural gas vehicles, advanced biofuels, as well as improvements to improve internal combustion engine efficiency. • DOE is providing critical long-term financing to: – Ford Motor Company, $5.9 billion – Nissan - $1.4 billion – Tesla Motors - $465 million – Fisker Automotive - $528.7 million 33
  • 34. How Fast Can the Market Share of Plug-In Hybrids and Electric Vehicles Grow? “Expert” Projections Vary Widely Comparison of 2020 Global EV / PHEV Sales % Forecasts Key Forecast Differences Emanate from Differences in: • Component Cost Reductions (Primary Difference) • Energy Cost Forecasts • Future Environmental Policy • Consumer Acceptance *Includes HEV, PHEV, and EV 34
  • 35. Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component Manufacturing Initiative Company Project Location Johnson Controls, Inc. Holland, MI Lebanon, OR (Entek) A123 Systems, Inc. Romulus, MI Brownstown, MI KD ABG MI, LLC Midland, MI (Dow Kokam) Compact Power, Inc. (on behalf of LG St. Clair, MI Chem, Ltd.) Pontiac, MI Holland, MI EnerDel, Inc. Indianapolis, IN General Motors Corporation Brownstown, MI Saft America, Inc. Jacksonville, FL Exide Technologies with Axion Power Bristol, TN International Columbus, GA East Penn Manufacturing Co. Lyon Station, PA 35
  • 36. Vehicle Technologies Program: Advanced Technologies for High Efficiency Clean Vehicles Hybrid Electric Advanced Combustion Engine R&D Tech Introduction Systems • Low Temp. Combustion R&D • EPAct/EISA • Advanced Batteries • Emission Controls • Rulemaking • Power Electronics • Light- & Heavy-Duty Engines • Deployment • Inverters • Solid State Energy Conversion • Student • Controllers & • Health Impacts Competitions Motors • Graduate Automotive • Systems Analysis Technology Education and Testing • Education • Aerodynamics, Rolling • Safety, Codes, & Standards Resistance & Accessory Loads • Validation Materials Technology Fuel Technologies • Bio-Based Fuels • Lightweight Structures • Clean/Efficient Combustion • Composite Development Fuel Characteristics • Processing/Recycling/ • Fischer-Tropsch Fuels & Manufacturing Blendstocks • Design Data Test Methods • Advanced Lubricants • High Temperature Materials Laboratory 36
  • 37. Some Examples of Progress . . . • “Ford introduced the new Focus, not at an auto show but at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, a symbolic break in tradition for a car company eager to supercharge a field crowded with plug-in competition. For Ford, it's a back-to-the-future story. Henry Ford's wife drove an electric car back in 1914, and now their great grandson Bill Ford will drive an electric vehicle they couldn't have imagined.” • ABC World News, January 7, 2011 • “*Nissan is+ expanding its production of the Leaf to meet an almost insatiable demand for the electric car. . . . The company said it is on track to deliver 20,000 Nissan Leaf cars to people who have reserved them by September.” • GreenBeat, May 3, 2011 • “*Tesla+ CEO Elon Musk said the company may raise additional funding for its third electric car, the Model X electric sports utility vehicle, according to reports Thursday. . . . Tesla is currently working on its second car, the Model S sedan, which is aimed at first-time electric car buyers. That model is expected to hit the market in the summer of next year.” • Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal , May 5, 2011 37
  • 38. Some Examples of Progress (cont’d). . . • “The *A123 plant opening+ was heralded as a sign that manufacturing isn't dead in Michigan, that public-private partnerships are the answer in today's global marketplace and that America is on its way to ending the country's dependence on foreign oil.” • Zlati Meyer (Detroit Free Press), September 14, 2010 • “Nissan’s massive new lithium-ion battery plant is continuing to take shape in Smyrna *Tennessee+. . . . The facility is being built next to Nissan’s existing Smyrna plant, which is being retooled to manufacture the all-electric Leaf. Production of the Leaf is scheduled to begin in Smyrna in late 2012, requiring the battery plant to be operating about three months prior. At full-capacity, the plant will be capable of producing 200,000 lithium-ion batteries per year.” • Nashville Business Journal, March 18, 2011 • “Johnson Controls Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter earnings climbed 29 percent on higher revenue as all three of its business segments reported double-digit sales increases amid a recovering global economy.” • Manufacturing.Net, April 25, 2011 38
  • 39. CONCLUSION • Our Energy Challenge – Old infrastructure – Heavily dependent on fossil fuels – Transformation is slow • We Can Accelerate Change – Technological innovation – Financing innovation – Innovation in business models – Working the verticals – Integration across the horizontals 39
  • 40. DISCUSSION THANK YOU Robert H. Edwards, Jr. Deputy General Counsel for Energy Policy United States Department of Energy Tel: +1-202-586-6758 Robert.Edwards@hq.doe.gov 12 May 2011 40