SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  108
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Brazil
Economic and
Financial Sector Overview
July 2012
2
• General Overview – Demographics,
Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development
• Recent Economic Indicators
• National Financial System
• Prudential Regulation and Supervision
• Credit
• Financial Inclusion
• Investments
Index
3
General Overview
Demographics
Macroeconomic Policy
Social Development
4
• Brazil is among the largest countries in
terms of territory, population and GDP
• Brazil has vast natural resources,
including recently discovered large
offshore oil fields, a diverse industrial
base, a dynamic and sophisticated
private sector, and a well-structured
public sector
• Brazil is a vigorous democracy, with free
multiparty elections and a stable political
system
• Brazil has good relations with all its
neighbors and has increased its ties with
all regions of the world
Sources: IBGE / BCB
Brazil Demographics
General Overview
• 6th largest GDP: US$ 2,475 billion (2011)
• Continental country: 5th largest area
8,514,877 km2
• 5th largest population: 191 million people
(2010)
5
• Sources: IBGE / UN
Sources: IBGE / UN
Demographics
General Overview
Dependency RatioPopulation Pyramid (2010)
Note: The dependency ratio is the ratio of the sum of the population
aged 0-14 and that aged 65+ to the population aged 15-64
• Brazil’s dependency ratio is still
declining, while other countries already
face an upward trend
• Brazil’s population is highly concentrated
within the Economically Active
Population range
-10 -5 0 5 10
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
100+
millions of people
men women
25
50
75
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Brazil China India Russia
6
• Main features of the macroeconomic policy framework:
- Inflation targeting
- Fiscal responsibility
- Exchange rate flexibility
• The macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with
adequate prudential policy and strong bank supervision,
resulted in:
- Capacity to absorb internal and external shocks
- Macroeconomic and financial stability
- Sustainable growth
- Credit and capital market development
- Investment growth
Macroeconomic Policy
General Overview
7Sources: BCB / IBGE
GDP Real Growth
General Overview
-4.4
1.0
-0.5
4.9
5.9
4.2
2.2
3.4
0.0 0.3
4.3
1.3
2.7
1.1
5.7
3.2
4.0
6.1
5.2
-0.3
7.5
2.7 2.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
%
*Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
8Sources: BCB / IBGE
GDP
General Overview
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
US$billion
US$ 2,349
*Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
9Sources: BCB / IBGE
GDP per Capita
General Overview
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
US$
US$ 11,954
*Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
10Source: IBGE
GDP Growth
General Overview
Annual growth (%)
GDP Household
consumption
Government
purchases
Gross fixed capital
formation
Exports (goods
and services)
Imports (goods
and services)
1Q 07 5.2 6.2 4.9 9.3 5.7 20.2
2Q 07 5.8 6.1 6.3 11.7 9.3 19.2
3Q 07 5.9 5.9 6.4 13.2 6.2 19.3
4Q 07 6.1 6.1 5.1 13.9 6.2 19.9
1Q 08 6.3 5.9 4.7 14.9 -1.7 14.3
2Q 08 6.4 6.2 3.1 15.7 2.3 18.1
3Q 08 6.6 6.7 3.8 16.9 2.8 18.6
4Q 08 5.2 5.7 3.2 13.6 0.5 15.4
1Q 09 -2.7 2.3 3.4 -13.6 -14.0 -13.9
2Q 09 -2.5 2.7 3.0 -13.6 -11.7 -13.5
3Q 09 -2.2 3.4 2.1 -11.9 -10.9 -12.7
4Q 09 -0.3 4.4 3.1 -6.7 -9.1 -7.6
1Q 10 9.3 8.5 3.1 29.9 15.4 40.6
2Q 10 9.0 7.3 4.6 28.5 10.7 39.6
3Q 10 8.3 6.8 4.8 25.4 10.9 39.8
4Q 10 7.5 6.9 4.2 21.3 11.5 35.8
1Q 11 4.2 6.0 1.8 8.8 4.0 13.4
2Q 11 3.8 5.8 2.7 7.5 5.2 14.1
3Q 11 3.2 4.8 2.2 5.7 4.8 11.0
4Q 11 2.7 4.1 1.9 4.7 4.5 9.7
1Q 12 1.9 3.2 2.3 2.1 5.1 8.2
11Source: IBGE
Unemployment Rate
General Overview
%(seasonallyadjusted)
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
May 12
5.4%
up to May 12
12Source: IBGE
Share of Formal Jobs
General Overview
shareofformaljobs(%)
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
up to May 12
13Sources: BCB / IBGE
Inflation – Convergence to Target
General Overview
%,yoy
target (4.5%)
*Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
reference
scenario*
0
2
4
6
8
10 Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
14
0
5
10
15
20
25 Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Sources: BM&FBovespa / BCB
Real Interest Rate
General Overview
%annual
Jul 13th
1.7%
360-day market rate discounted by the IPCA expected for the next 12 months (Focus)
up to Jul 13th
15Source: BCB
Net Public Debt
General Overview
%ofGDP
52.0
60.4
54.8
50.6
48.4
47.3
45.5
38.5
42.1
39.1
36.4
35.0
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
*May 12
-25.4 p.p.
of GDP
16Source: BCB
Federal Securities - Breakdown
General Overview
* does not include securities held by the Central Bank
Composition of total federal security debt (%)*
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012**
Fixed rate 20.1 27.9 36.1 37.3 32.2 33.7 37.9 38.3 39.2
Price linked 14.9 15.5 22.5 26.3 29.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 33.2
Selic linked 52.4 53.3 40.2 36.6 33.6 35.8 32.5 30.9 26.0
Exchange rate 9.9 1.2 -1.1 -2.3 3.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8
Other 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
** May 12
17
Trade Balance – Exports and Imports
General Overview
US$billion
Source: MDIC
55
58 60
73
96
118
138
161
198
153
202
256 255
56 56
47 48
63
74
91
121
173
128
182
226 231
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
exports imports *12 months up to Jun
18Source: MDIC
Trade Balance
General Overview
US$billion
*12 months up to Jun
-0.7
2.7
13.1
24.8
33.6
44.7
46.5
40.0
25.0 25.3
20.1
29.8
23.9
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
19Source: MDIC
Exports in 2011
General Overview
Composition Destination
Primary
Products
48.8%
Manufactured
Products
36.8%
Semi-
Manufactured
products
14.4%
US
10.1%
EU***
17.1%
Germany
3.5%
Asia**
12.6%
China
17.3%
Latin America
& Caribbean*
13.5%
Argentina
8.9%
Others
16.9%
* excluded Argentina
** excluded China and Middle East
*** excluded Germany
20Source: MDIC
Exports
General Overview
Annual Exports (US$ billion)
primary semimanufactured manufaturactured others
2000 12.6 8.5 32.6 1.5
2001 15.3 8.2 33.0 1.7
2002 17.0 9.0 33.1 1.4
2003 21.2 10.9 39.8 1.3
2004 28.5 13.4 53.1 1.6
2005 34.7 16.0 65.4 2.5
2006 40.3 19.5 75.0 3.0
2007 51.6 21.8 83.9 3.3
2008 73.0 27.1 92.7 5.2
2009 62.0 20.5 67.3 3.2
2010 90.0 28.2 79.6 4.1
2011 122.5 36.0 92.3 5.3
21Source: MDIC
Imports
General Overview
Annual Imports (US$ billion)
durable goods non durable
goods
primary and
intermediate
goods
capital goods fuel and
lubricants
2000 3.4 3.9 28.6 13.6 6.4
2001 3.5 3.6 27.4 14.8 6.3
2002 2.5 3.4 23.5 11.6 6.2
2003 2.4 3.1 25.8 10.4 6.6
2004 3.2 3.7 33.5 12.1 10.3
2005 3.9 4.5 37.8 15.4 11.9
2006 6.1 5.9 45.3 18.9 15.2
2007 8.3 7.8 59.4 25.1 20.1
2008 12.7 9.8 83.1 35.9 31.5
2009 11.6 9.9 59.8 29.7 16.7
2010 18.6 12.8 84.0 41.0 25.3
2011 24.1 16.0 102.1 47.9 36.2
22
Current Account
General Overview
US$billion
Source: BCB
-16.3
-6.8
0.1
-0.2
-5.3
-1.4
4.2
1.0
-3.8
-1.4
6.1
-0.7-1.8
-18.4
-23.5
-30.5
-33.4
-25.3-24.2 -24.2
-23.2
4.2
11.7
14.013.6
1.6
-28.2
-24.3
-47.3
-52.5
-50.9
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20 1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
23Source: BCB
Current Account
General Overview
%ofGDP
-6.0
-3.6
0.1
-0.1
-2.1
-0.5
1.4
0.3
-0.8
-0.4
1.6
-0.2
-0.3
-2.4
-2.8
-3.5
-4.0
-4.3
-3.8
-4.2
-1.5
0.8
1.8
1.6
1.3
0.1
-1.7
-1.5
-2.2-2.1-2.1
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2 1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
24Source: BCB
Foreign Direct Investment
General Overview
US$billion
3.1
1.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2
2.8
1.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.3 2.1
4.4
10.8
19.0
28.928.6
32.8
22.5
16.6
10.1
18.1
15.1
18.8
34.6
45.1
25.9
48.5
66.7
63.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
25Source: BCB
Foreign Direct Investment / GDP
General Overview
%ofGDP
1.1
0.7 0.8
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.3 0.2 0.3
0.5
0.3 0.4
0.6
1.3
2.2
3.4
4.9
5.1
4.1
3.3
1.8
2.7
1.7 1.7
2.5
2.7
1.6
2.3
2.7 2.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
26Source: BCB
FDI (-) Current Account Deficit
General Overview
%ofGDP
-0.6
-0.1
2.1
0.1 0.1
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
-0.5
0.6
1.3
-0.1
1.8
2.6
4.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
1.0
0.1 0.1
0.6 0.5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
27Source: BCB
External Liability – Debt vs Equity
General Overview
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
debt equity
%oftotalexternalliability
*May 12
28Source: BCB
External Liability – Interest vs Profits
General Overview
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
profit remittances interest payments
US$billion
*May 12 (12 months)
29Source: BCB
Interventions and Exchange Rate
General Overview
US$billion
BRL/US$
up to Jun 12
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
interventions (LHS) exchange rate (RHS)
30Source: BCB
International Reserves
General Overview
US$billion
4 5
12 12 7 7 9 10 10 9
24
32 39
52
60
52
45
36 33 36 38
49 53 54
86
180
194
239
289
352
375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
as of Jul 18th
31Source: BCB
International Reserves
General Overview
%ofGDP
13.2
11.7
14.7
13.5
14.2
15.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
*May 12
32
International Reserves (Dec 2011)
General Overview
Sources: BCB / IMF
12.9
14.2
16.9
17.7
22.1
25.5
26.9
27.4
30.8
34.8
43.6
50.7
91.5
117.3
Mexico*
Brazil
Chile
India
Japan
Denmark
Russia
Korea*
Israel
Hungary
China
Thailand
Singapore
Hong Kong
*IMF estimates
%ofGDP
33Source: BCB
Net External Debt
General Overview
US$billion
*estimate May 12
79
87 88 92
103106
96 97
105 108
100 99
88 92
101
131
182190 190
163 165
151
136
101
75
-12
-28
-62
-51
-73
-96-110
-70
-30
10
50
90
130
170
210 1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
34Source: BCB
External Debt Ratios
General Overview
120.6%
63.4%
38.8%
20.4%
17.3%
12.3%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
short term debt/intl.
reserves
debt services/exports external debt/GDP
Dec 03 May 12*
%
*estimate
35Sources: Moody’s / S&P / Fitch
Brazilian Sovereign Ratings
General Overview
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Moody's S&P Fitch
Investment grade
upgrades in 2011:
• April: Fitch
• June: Moody’s
• November: S&P
A3 / A-
Baa1 / BBB+
Baa2 / BBB
Baa3 / BBB-
Ba1 / BB+
Ba2 / BB
Ba3 / BB-
B1 / B+
B2 / B
B3 / B-
36Sources: National Treasury / Bloomberg
Public External Debt: Yield
General Overview
External debt federal bonds
5.0
4.5
4.2
3.4
2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Apr10
Jul10
Jul11
Jan12
current*
%p.a.
%p.a.
Global 2021 Global 2041
5.8
5.2
4.7
4.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep09
Sep10
Nov11
current*
*Jul 15th
37
Main Economic Indicators
General Overview
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gross Domestic Product
GDP (USD bn) 663.8 882.4 1,088.8 1,366.5 1,650.9 1,625.6 2,143.9 2,475.1 2,349.3/1
GDP (USD per capita) 3,665.2 4,812.0 5,867.3 7,282.7 8,706.7 8,489.8 11,093.9 12,696.1 11,953.9/1
Real GDP (growth rate) 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 (0.3) 7.5 2.7 2.5/1
Household consumption 3.8 4.5 5.2 6.1 5.7 4.4 6.9 4.1 3.5/1
Gross fixed capital formation 9.1 3.6 9.8 13.9 13.6 (6.7) 21.3 4.7 1.0/1
Economic Activity
Unemployment rate (annual average) 11.5 9.9 10.0 9.3 7.9 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.8 /2
Real payroll (growth rate) 1.6 4.2 5.9 5.8 6.9 3.9 7.4 4.8 5.1 /2
Industrial production (growth rate) 8.3 3.1 2.8 6.0 3.1 (7.4) 10.5 0.3 -1.8 /2
Consumer price index (% yoy) 7.6 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 4.9 /5
Fiscal (consolidated public sector. % of GDP)
Primary balance 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.4 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.0/2
Public sector net debt 50.6 48.4 47.3 45.5 38.5 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.0/4
Balance of Payments
Exports (USD bn) 96.7 118.5 137.8 160.6 197.9 153.0 201.9 256.0 258.0/1
Imports (USD bn) (62.8) (73.6) (91.4) (120.6) (173.0) (127.7) (181.7) (226.2) (240.0) /1
Current account (USD bn) 11.7 14.0 13.6 1.6 (28.2) (24.3) (47.4) (52.5) (56.0) /1
Current account (% of GDP) 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 (1.7) (1.5) (2.2) (2.1) (2.4) /1
Foreign direct investment (USD bn) 18.1 15.1 18.8 34.6 45.1 25.9 48.4 66.7 50.0/1
Foreign direct investment (% of GDP) 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.1/1
International reserves (USD bn) 52.9 53.8 85.8 180.3 193.8 238.5 288.6 352.0 375.1/3
/1 Central Bank forecast /4 in May 12
/2 12 months until May 12 /5 12 months until Jun 12
/3 on Jul 18th
38
• Both macroeconomic and inclusion
policies have led to marked improvement
in living conditions
• A significant share of low income groups
joined the middle class
Social Development
General Overview
39Source: IBGE
Gini Index – Income Inequality
General Overview
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Poverty headcount ratio below poverty line (LHS) Gini Index (RHS)
%ofpopulation
index(0to1)
40Source: FGV
Social Mobility
General Overview
49
25
17
47
39
32
66
105
118
13
23 29
0
50
100
150
200
2003 2011 2014*
E D C A/B
millionsofpeople
Social Classes
*FGV forecast
41Source: FGV
Social Mobility
General Overview
Social Classes (% composition)
2003 2011 2014*
A/B 7.6 11.8 14.9
C 37.6 55.1 60.2
D 26.7 20.3 16.4
E 28.1 12.9 8.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
*FGV forecast
42Sources: IBGE / FGV
Per Capita Income Growth (Per Percentile)
General Overview
6.8%
6.1%
5.8%
5.3%
4.8%
4.5%
3.9%
3.2%
2.4%
1.5%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Higher Income
Lower Income
annual average 2001-2009
43
Recent Economic
Indicators
44Source: IBGE
Industrial Production
Recent Economic Indicators
2007=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125 Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
industrial production capital goods
May 12 / Apr 12
-0.9%
seasonally adjusted
up to May 12
May 12 / Apr 12
-1.8%
45Source: FGV
Industrial Confidence
Recent Economic Indicators
s.a.index(100=indifference)
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
up to Jun 12
46Source: Markit
Industrial Activity (PMI)
Recent Economic Indicators
s.a.index(50=indifference)
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
Mar07
Sep07
Mar08
Sep08
Mar09
Sep09
Mar10
Sep10
Mar11
Sep11
Mar12
up to Jun 12
47Source: FGV
Industrial Capacity Utilization
Recent Economic Indicators
%
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
historical
average
Jun 12
83.8
up to Jun 12
seasonally adjusted
48Source: IBGE
Retail Sales
Recent Economic Indicators
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
retail sales retail sales (incl. automobiles and construction materials)
May 12 / Apr 12
-0.8%
May 12 / Apr 12
-0.7%
2007=100
seasonally adjusted
up to May 12
49Source: FGV
Confidence in Commerce
Recent Economic Indicators
index(100=indifference)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Mar10
May10
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Sep11
Nov11
Jan12
Mar12
May12
up to Jun 12
50Source: FGV
Confidence in Services
Recent Economic Indicators
index(100=indifference)
up to Jun 12
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Aug08
Feb09
Aug09
Feb10
Aug10
Feb11
Aug11
Feb12
51Source: IBGE
Industrial Production vs. Retail Sales
Recent Economic Indicators
2007=100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
industrial production expanded retail sales (incl. automobiles and construction inputs)
May 12 / Apr 12
-0.9%
May 12 / Apr 12
-0.7%
seasonally adjusted
data up to May 12
52Source: FGV
Consumer Confidence
Recent Economic Indicators
Sep05=100
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130 Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
historical
average
seasonally adjusted
Jun 12
123.5
up to Jun 12
53Source: IBGE
Unemployment Rate
Recent Economic Indicators
%
5.8
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
54Sources: BCB / IBGE
IBC-Br
Recent Economic Indicators
%
May 12
1.4
1.9
2.5
5.3
7.6 7.5
6.3
4.9
3.7
2.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan10
Mar10
May10
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Sep11
Nov11
Jan12
Mar12
May12
IBC-Br in 12 months GDP in 12 months
up to May 12
Leading Indicator
IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index)
55Source: BCB
IBC-Br (seasonally adjusted)
Recent Economic Indicators
Leading Indicator
IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index)
%
0.6
0.2
0.3
-0.9
-0.3
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.3
1.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.5
0.3
-0.3-0.3
-0.5
0.8
0.5
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan10
Mar10
May10
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Sep11
Nov11
Jan12
Mar12
May12
up to May 12
56Sources: IBGE / FGV
Producer Price Indexes
Recent Economic Indicators
0
3
6
9
12
15
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
Jul12
IPP IPA (10, M and DI)
%in12months
4.73%
IPP May 2012
8.04%
IPP Dec 2010
6.13%
IPA-10 Jul 2012
13.73%
IPA-10 Dec 2010
57Source: FGV
General Price Index
Recent Economic Indicators
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
Jul12
IGP (10, M and DI)
%in12months
6,03%
IGP-10 Jul 2012
11.16%
IGP-10 Dec 2010
58Sources: IBGE / Fipe / FGV
Consumer Price Indexes
Recent Economic Indicators
%in12months
IPC-Fipe 2nd week=
4.30%
Jul 2012
INPC = 4.90%
Jun 2012
IPC-10= 5.31%
Jul 2012
IPCA= 4.92%
Jun 2012
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Dec10
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Feb12
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
Jul12
IPCA-15 and IPCA INPC IPC-Fipe IPC (10, M and DI)
59Source: IBGE
Consumer Price Index (IPCA)
General Overview
change yoy (%)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Consumer Price Index (IPCA) 7.6 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 4.9
Food and beverage 3.9 2.0 1.2 10.8 11.1 3.2 10.4 7.2 7.3
Housing 7.1 6.4 3.1 1.8 5.1 5.7 5.0 6.7 6.5
Household equipment 5.4 2.7 -2.7 -2.5 2.0 3.1 3.5 0.0 -1.6
Apparel 10.0 7.1 5.1 3.8 7.3 6.1 7.5 8.3 5.3
Transportation 11.0 8.1 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.1 0.5
Health and personal care 6.9 6.2 6.0 4.5 5.7 5.4 5.1 6.3 6.1
Personal expenses 6.9 7.0 7.3 6.5 7.4 8.0 7.4 8.6 9.1
Education 10.4 7.2 6.2 4.2 4.6 6.1 6.2 8.1 7.3
Communication 13.9 6.4 -0.2 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.4
Tradables 6.3 2.7 1.3 4.7 7.0 2.6 6.9 4.4 3.0
Non tradables 6.9 6.4 4.0 6.6 7.1 5.5 7.3 8.6 7.5
Regulated 10.2 9.0 4.3 1.7 3.3 4.7 3.1 6.2 3.8
Services 6.7 6.8 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.4 7.6 9.0 7.5
*Jun 12 (12 months)
60Source: BCB
Commodity Price Index
General Overview
Dec05=100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Dec05
Jun06
Dec06
Jun07
Dec07
Jun08
Dec08
Jun09
Dec09
Jun10
Dec10
Jun11
Dec11
Jun12
IC-Br IC-Br agriculture
Jun 12/May 12
-0.2%
Jun 12/May 12
-1.4%
IC-Br: Brazilian Commodity Price Index in BRL; up to Jun 12
61Source: BCB
FX Inflows
General Overview
US$billion(12months)
up to Jun 12
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
trade in goods and services financial total
62Source: BCB
FX Inflows (monthly data)
Recent Economic Indicators
-5
0
5
10
15
20 Jan10
Mar10
May10
Jul10
Sep10
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
Jul11
Sep11
Nov11
Jan12
Mar12
May12
trade in goods and services financial total
US$billion
up to Jun 12
63
National Financial
System
64
National Monetary Council (CMN)
- Composed by the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Planning, Budget and
Management and the Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil
- Establishes the inflation target for monetary policy, prudential rules and credit
policy
- The Central Bank of Brazil is the financial supervisory authority
Source: BCB
National Financial System
National Financial System
NATIONAL
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
National Council of
Private Insurance-
CNSP
National Monetary
Council - CMN
Securities and
Exchange
Comission - CVM
Other financial
intermediaries
Stock Exchange
Bovespa
Commodities
and Futures
Exchange
Central Bank of
Brazil - BCB
Other financial
intermediaries
Exchange
Brokers
Financial
Institutions
Management Council
of Complementary
Pension -CGPC
65
Central Bank of Brazil – Main Activities
National Financial System
Monetary
Policy
Financial
Regulation
Financial
Supervision
Wide scope of Central Bank’s authority helps
policy coordination
66
Number of Institutions by Type
The National Financial System
Source: BCB
Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Multiple bank 135 140 139 137 139 137
Commercial bank 20 18 18 19 20 22
Development bank 4 4 4 4 4 4
Savings bank 1 1 1 1 1 1
Investment bank 17 17 16 15 14 15
Exchange bank 2 2 2
Consumer finance company 52 55 59 61 59 58
Securities brokerage company 107 107 105 103 99 97
Exchange brokerage company 46 45 45 44 47 52
Securities distribution company 135 135 125 125 126 120
Leasing company 38 36 33 32 31 30
Real estate credit company and savings and loan
association
18 16 16 14 14 12
Mortgage company 6 6 6 7 8 7
Development agency 12 12 14 15 16 16
591 592 581 579 580 573
Credit cooperative 1,465 1,453 1,405 1,370 1,312 1,279
Micro-entrepreneur credit company 52 47 45 45 42 42
2,108 2,092 2,031 1,994 1,934 1,894
Consorcio company 329 317 308 300 284 257
Total 2,437 2,409 2,339 2,294 2,218 2,151
* Jun 12
67Source: BCB
Top 10 Financial Institutions
National Financial System
Name Ownership Total
assets
(BRL billion)
Credit and
leasing
operations
(BRL billion)
Total
deposits
(BRL billion)
Net
worth
(BRL billion)
Employees
(Thousand)
Branches
(#)
Basel
capital
ratio
(%)
Banco do Brasil Federal government owned 955 404 447 59 130 5,267 14.7
Itaú Domestic private 857 295 240 74 120 3,855 15.6
Bradesco Domestic private 692 240 214 58 100 4,645 14.9
BNDES Federal government owned 618 214 21 63 3 1 20.9
Caixa Federal government owned 558 269 269 21 107 2,347 12.8
Santander Foreign controlled private 424 176 123 67 54 2,518 24.0
HSBC Foreign controlled private 147 48 71 9 30 868 13.4
Votorantim Domestic private 148 55 26 8 2 35 13.0
Safra Domestic private 116 41 15 6 6 106 12.6
BTG Pactual Domestic private 91 4 16 7 1 7 16.8
Others 679 279 221 88 75 1,801
Banking segment total 5,213 2,023 1,662 458 629 21,450
Mar 12
68Source: BCB
Brazilian Banks - Capital Adequacy Ratio
The National Financial System
13.8
14.8
16.6
19.0 18.5
17.4 17.8 17.3
17.7
18.9
16.9
16.3
16.0
0
5
10
15
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Brazilian banks capital ratio Basel minimum capital ratio
regulatory minimum capital ratio
%
leverage ratio: 10.2
*Jun 12
69
Prudential Regulation
and Supervision
70
• All FIs regulated and supervised
• Financial regulation mostly infra-legal
• Convergence to international standards (IFRS,
Basel 2, 2.5 and 3, IOSCO)
• Participation in international forums (BCBS, G20,
FSB)
• Rigorous financial regulation
General Features
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
71
• Risk-based approach to supervision
• On-site supervision
- frequent on-site examinations
- rating of supervised institutions
– qualitative assessment of risk management and control
– analysis of financial and economic indicators
– identification of areas to be monitored
• Includes contingency planning and assessment
of organizational structures dedicated to risks
Financial Supervision - Main Features
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
72
• Directs on-site supervision towards the riskier
areas
• Specific monitoring of market and liquidity risks
- uses information on assets and derivatives registered
in clearing houses
- conciliation with FIs’ accounting information
• Monitoring of aggregate evolution of systemic
risk over time
• Periodic application of stress tests to FIs’
statements
Off-Site Supervision
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
73
• Central Bank has detailed information about all
credit operations above BRL 1,000:
- 289 million credit operations with detailed information
- 45 million debtors
- Covers 96% of Brazilian banking credit market
- Information shared with banks, enabling better risk
assessment
- Allows Central Bank to carry out in-depth and timely
analysis of the financial system’s and individual bank’s
loan portfolios
Comprehensive Overview of the Credit Market
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
74
• Minimum capital ratio: 11% of RWA (above Basel
minimum of 8%)
• Capital requirement for credit risk on trading book
exposures
• Lower risk weights for residential property exposures
conditioned to loan-to-value
- LTV < 50% 35% risk weight
- 50% < LTV < 80% 50% risk weight
- 80% < LTV < 100% 75% (retail) or 100% (otherwise)
• Highest multiplier for standardized market risk
requirement
• Forward-looking provisioning rules
Rigorous Regulation
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
75
• Mandatory organizational structure for
management of each risk factor
- Credit, market and operational risks
- Board accountability on risk management
• Limits on large exposures
• Limits on foreign currency exposures
• Mandatory registration of OTC derivatives
• Mandatory internal controls
Rigorous Regulation
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
76
• Provisions based on expected and incurred
losses, reducing procyclicality
• Full provisioning is required 6 months after
delinquency (fast provisioning)
• Write-offs are required 6 months after full
provisioning
• Central Bank applies the most conservative
credit risk classification possible for each
borrower (conservative provisioning)
Rigorous Regulation
Prudential Regulation and Supervision
77
Credit
78Source: BCB
Credit / GDP
Credit
25.8 26.0 24.6 25.7
28.3
30.9
35.2
40.5
43.7
45.2
49.0 50.1
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
%ofGDP
2009-2011: 18.3%
(average growth of nominal credit)
2005-2008: 25.2%
(average growth of nominal credit)
*May 12
79Source: BCB
Overall Credit
Credit
*May 12
% of GDP
Households Corporates Total
2001 9.6 16.3 25.8
2002 9.3 16.7 26.0
2003 9.4 15.2 24.6
2004 10.5 15.2 25.7
2005 12.3 16.0 28.3
2006 13.8 17.1 30.9
2007 16.0 19.2 35.2
2008 17.6 22.9 40.5
2009 19.6 24.0 43.7
2010 20.6 24.6 45.2
2011 22.7 26.3 49.0
2012* 23.5 26.6 50.1
80Source: BCB *It does not include mortgage and credit to small farmers.
Credit by Economic Sector
Credit
**May 12
% of GDP
Public
Sector
Industry
Real
Estate
Agriculture
Retail and
Services
Households* Total
2001 0.8 7.6 1.8 2.1 7.4 6.2 25.8
2002 0.9 7.8 1.7 2.4 7.3 6.0 26.0
2003 0.9 6.9 1.5 2.8 6.8 5.8 24.6
2004 1.0 6.4 1.3 3.0 6.9 7.0 25.7
2005 1.0 6.5 1.4 3.1 7.6 8.8 28.3
2006 0.8 6.9 1.5 3.3 8.4 10.0 30.9
2007 0.7 8.0 1.7 3.4 9.5 11.8 35.2
2008 0.9 9.8 2.1 3.5 11.4 12.8 40.5
2009 1.8 9.4 2.8 3.5 11.9 14.3 43.7
2010 1.8 9.6 3.7 3.3 12.3 14.6 45.2
2011 2.0 10.1 4.8 3.4 13.4 15.3 49.0
2012** 2.1 10.1 5.4 3.4 13.6 15.5 50.1
81Source: BCB
Earmarked / Total Credit
Credit
34.3
37.5
38.9
36.3
33.5
32.0
29.4 29.0
32.5
34.6
35.7 35.9
0
10
20
30
40 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
%oftotalcredit
*May 12
82Source: BNDES
BNDES Disbursements by Business Sector
Credit
46 48
40
50 53
40 43 46 47
32
28
35 30
38
36 33
40
39 35 31
40
39
12
14 17
9 7
8 6 5
6
7
9
7 8 5 5 7
12 12 14 16
21 24
0
20
40
60
80
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Industry Infrastructure Farming Retail and Services
%
*Jan-Apr 12
83Source: BCB
Credit to Real Estate / Total Credit
Credit
%oftotal
6.5 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.5 9.0 11.1 13.1 14.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
credit to real estate other credits
*Apr 12
84Source: BCB
Securitized Housing Credit
Credit
0.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 4.2
8.3 7.9 7.7 9.9 9.7 11.0 11.2 10.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
securitized non-securitized
%ofhousingcredit
*Apr 12
85Sources: BCB / World Bank
Housing Credit / GDP
Credit
102.1
93.9
88.7
72.7
65.5
63.2
62.0
40.0
37.4
36.7
30.6
24.3
18.4
14.0
13.0
12.5
6.0
5.1
2.4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Switzerland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States
Portugal
Canada
Spain
Germany
France
South Korea
South Africa
Japan
Italy
Chile
China
Mexico
India
Brazil
Russian Federation
86Source: BCB
Non-Performing Loans
Credit
up to May 12
%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Jan02
Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Corporations Individuals
Monetary
tigthening
cycles
Arrears above 90 days
87Source: BCB
Provisions (% of Non-Performing Loans)
Credit
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230% Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
provisions/NPLs 3-mo moving average up to May 12
88Source: BCB
Households Debt
Credit
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Debt Debt Service, seasonally adjusted
%ofincome
up to Apr 12
89
• Increased capital requirements for consumer loan
exposures involving longer maturities.
Macroprudential Measures
Operation Maturity Risk Weight
Vehicles (financing
and leasing)
up to 60 months 75%* or 100%
more than 60 months 150%
Payroll-deducted
loan
up to 60 months 75%* or 100%
more than 60 months 300%
Personal loan
up to 36 months 75%* or 100%
between 37 and 60 months 150%
more than 60 months 300%
Other consumer loans
* retail operations
Unchanged
Credit
90
• Established unremunerated reserve requirement on short
spot FX positions above a limit
- Limit: the lowest between US$1 billion and the bank’s
capital base
• Minimum payment for credit card bill
- 15% (June 2011)
• Established the Financial Stability Committee (Comef)
within the Central Bank, in order to coordinate the Bank's
efforts to monitor, evaluate, and mitigate systemic risk
- Membership: Governor and Deputy Governors
- Bimonthly meetings
Macroprudential Measures
Credit
91Source: BCB
Credit to Households – Non-Performing Loans
Credit
Non-performing loans composition by period (date in which the operations was set)
Includes credit to vehicles, leasing operations, payroll-deducted loans and
not payroll-deducted loans
38.7
19.7
24.8 28.6 27.1
49.5
57.7
38.8
49.0 50.3
10.5
19.2
26.8
13.4 14.8
1.3
3.4
9.6 9.0 7.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 May 12
Last 12 months 13 to 24 months ago 25 to 36 months ago Other
%
92Source: BCB
Credit to Households – Non-Performing Loans
Credit
Contribution for the household non-performing loans by credit maturity
19.3%
14.1%
37.7%
28.9%
Up to 3 years
Within 3 and 4 years
Within 4 and 5 years
Above 5 years
*May 12
93
Financial Inclusion
94Sources: BCB / IBGE
Geographic Coverage Increased
Financial Inclusion
2000 2010
0 (20%)
>0 to 2 (22%)
>2 to 5 (40%)
>5 to 10 (16%)
>10 (2%)
# of points per 10,000 adults
(% of municipalities)
0 (0%)
>0 to 2 (0%)
>2 to 5 (6%)
>5 to 10 (29%)
>10 (65%)
# of points per 10,000 adults
(% of municipalities)
82% of municipalities had less than 5 points per 10,000 adults in 2000.
In 2010, 94% were above this level.
Bank branches, bank advanced outposts (PAA), credit cooperatives
(headquarters and outposts) and correspondents
95Source: BCB
Access to Banking Services
Financial Inclusion
2002 2009 2011
Accounts (for the banking sector) 55,708,468 83,308,800 91,944,421
Customers 87,630,527 151,102,765 174,791,126
Branches
For the banking sector 17,049 20,046 21,278
For all financial institutions 17,756 21,287 22,628
Posts of service (for the banking sector) 32,769 53,628 60,375
ATM’s 129,913 165,567 174,920
Domestic correspondents 78,539 151,351 177,925
Municipalities
Without banking services 222 - -
With banking services 5,358 5,566 5,564
Municipalities banking services coverage 96% 100% 100%
96
• Definition: non-financial firms hired by FIs to
render basic banking services on their behalf
• Main correspondent chains are post offices,
lottery outlets, supermarkets
• Over 180,000 points of sale, compared to 20,000
branches of FIs (May 2011)
• Allows banking system to cover all 5,566
municipalities
• Due diligence and anti-money laundering rules
apply to correspondents
Bank Correspondents
Financial Inclusion
97
• Main services are handling basic account
transactions and receiving loan applications,
processing payments, and transferring funds
• Bank-based model: financial institution (licensed,
supervised) takes full responsibility for the
services
• Correspondent may not charge additional fees to
the public for its services
• Main activity of the correspondent has to be
commercial, non-related to financial services
Bank Correspondents
Financial Inclusion
98
• Benefits for the bank
- Broadens client basis
- Smaller overhead and direct costs
- Informal environment: more inviting for lower-income
customers
- Flexible hours of operation
• Benefits for the correspondent
- Transaction fees from the bank
- Use of spare capacity
- Increased flow of customers
- Links the firm to a renowned brand
Synergies in Correspondent Banking
Financial Inclusion
99
Complementary Channels are Important
Financial Inclusion
Sources: BCB / IBGE
Bank branches – 2010
Bank branches, outposts, credit cooperatives
and correspondents – 2010
All municipalities have at least one bank branch, outpost or correspondent.
Correspondents contribute to network density
0 (38%)
>0 to 1(25%)
>1 to 5 (26%)
>5 to 10 (13%)
>10 (14%)
# of points/1,000 km2
(percentage of municipalities)
0 (0%)
>0 to 1(3%)
>1 to 5 (12%)
>5 to 10 (12%)
>10 (73%)
# of points/1,000 km2
(percentage of municipalities)
100
Investments
101Source: IBGE
Investment Rate at a New Level
Investments
18.3
16.9
17.4
17.0
15.7
16.8
17.0
16.4
15.3
16.1 15.9
16.4
17.4
19.1
18.1
19.5
19.3
19.1
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
%ofGDP
*1Q 2012 (12 months)
102Source: BCB
Foreign Direct Investment
General Overview
US$billion
3.1
1.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2
2.8
1.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.3 2.1
4.4
10.8
19.0
28.928.6
32.8
22.5
16.6
10.1
18.1
15.1
18.8
34.6
45.1
25.9
48.5
66.7
63.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012*
*May 12 (12 months)
103
Brazil is a Major Recipient of FDI
Investments
Source: Ministry of Planning
• State-owned companies and the private sector will act as
government partners
(*) PAC - Growth Acceleration Plan is a common management umbrella under which are
major infrastructure projects
PAC* expected investment (USD billion) until 2014
Logistics 67.2
Power Generation & Transmission 260.0
Social & Urban Mobility 200.4
Total 527.6
104Source: Ministry of Planning
Investment Projects Map
Investments
Port of Manaus -
concession
South Bahia and
Deep Water ports
- concession
HPP Jirau (USD 7.3 bn)
and Sto. Antonio
(USD 2.3 bn) - PPP
HPP Belo Monte
(USD 14.4 bn) - PPP
SP-Rio high speed train
(USD 18 bn) -
concession
Midwest integration railway
North-South railway
East-West
integration
railway
São Paulo (USD 2.5 bn)
and Campinas Airports
(USD 4.8 bn) -
concession
Brasilia Airport
(USD 1.6 bn) - concession
Natal Airport (USD 0.4
bn) – concession
BR-040 and BR-116
(USD 3.0 bn) -
concession
Refineries and
petrochemical plants
(USD 76 bn)
Oil drilling and production
development (USD 405 bn) - private
Other 21 HPP (USD 21 bn)
– PPP
Power grid – 42,000 km.
(USD 27 bn) - concession
Subways and urban
trains (USD 7 bn)
Social housing:
2 million houses
(USD 69 bn) - PPP
Q
Q
Q
Q
105Source: BNDES
Investment Prospects - Industry
Investments
US$ billion Growth
2007-2010 2012-2015 %
Oil and gas 136 202 48.5
Mining 39 29 -25.2
Steel 18 18 0.6
Petrochemical 14 17 19.5
Vehicles 18 31 74.0
Electronics 13 18 37.1
Pulp and Paper 11 12 8.3
Textile and Apparel 6 8 33.3
Aviation 2 5 198.6
Total 257 341 32.5
Mar 12
106Source: BNDES
Investment Prospects - Infrastructure
Investments
US$ billion Growth
2007-2010 2012-2015 %
Electric Power 81 90 10.6
Telecoms 41 42 4.6
Sanitation 18 25 33.5
Railroads 14 26 76.8
Roads 23 30 32.9
Ports 5 9 61.9
Airports 1 6 333.9
Total 184 227 23.3
Mar 12
107Source: Petrobras
Brazilian Oil Reserves
Investments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
future*
deepwater offshore fields
(pre-salt layer)
*estimated volume
Tupi and Iracema*
(8 billion boe)
Franco* (4.5 billion boe)
Libra* (8 billion boe)
Iara* (4 billion boe)
Guara* (2 billion boe)
crude oil, NGL and natural gas
billion–barreloilequivalent(boe)
108
BCB Central Bank of Brazil
BNDES National Bank of Economic and Social Development
CMN Brazilian National Monetary Council
CVM Brazilian Securities Commission
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
Fipe Economic Research Institute Foundation
FGV Getulio Vargas Foundation
IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
IMF International Monetary Fund
Ipea Institute for Applied Economic Research
MDIC Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
UN United Nations
Glossary

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Macroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy PhilippinesMacroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy Philippinesnaojan
 
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14Swapnil Soni
 
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive Growth
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive GrowthInvestment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive Growth
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive GrowthArangkada Philippines
 
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020AIS Ahmad Iman Sudrajat
 
Israel economics 2013 Q2
Israel economics  2013  Q2Israel economics  2013  Q2
Israel economics 2013 Q2Dmitry Tseitlin
 
Country report South America - march 2015
Country report South America - march 2015Country report South America - march 2015
Country report South America - march 2015Ignacio Jimenez
 
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
 
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016Mark Kooymans (M.Econ)
 
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012Fincor Corretora
 
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countries
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countriesGDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countries
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countriesSadman Prodhan
 
Greek Economy: Trends and Prospects
Greek Economy: Trends and ProspectsGreek Economy: Trends and Prospects
Greek Economy: Trends and ProspectsIlias Lekkos
 

Tendances (18)

Macroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy PhilippinesMacroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy Philippines
 
Lyes Boudiaf
Lyes Boudiaf Lyes Boudiaf
Lyes Boudiaf
 
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14
 
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive Growth
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive GrowthInvestment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive Growth
Investment Grade Philippines: Seizing Opportunities to Achieve Inclusive Growth
 
CPD Budget Analysis FY2021
CPD Budget Analysis FY2021CPD Budget Analysis FY2021
CPD Budget Analysis FY2021
 
National Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical Perspective
National Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical PerspectiveNational Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical Perspective
National Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical Perspective
 
CPD's Budget Analysis FY2021
CPD's Budget Analysis FY2021CPD's Budget Analysis FY2021
CPD's Budget Analysis FY2021
 
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020
Investment Outlook & Strategic Policy 2020
 
Israel economics 2013 Q2
Israel economics  2013  Q2Israel economics  2013  Q2
Israel economics 2013 Q2
 
Country report South America - march 2015
Country report South America - march 2015Country report South America - march 2015
Country report South America - march 2015
 
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...
 
Fin3600 11
Fin3600 11Fin3600 11
Fin3600 11
 
Macro economics analysis of switzerland
Macro economics analysis of switzerlandMacro economics analysis of switzerland
Macro economics analysis of switzerland
 
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
 
Girol karacaoglu
Girol karacaogluGirol karacaoglu
Girol karacaoglu
 
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012
Weekly markets perspectives october 22nd 2012
 
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countries
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countriesGDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countries
GDP growth of Bangladesh and selected countries
 
Greek Economy: Trends and Prospects
Greek Economy: Trends and ProspectsGreek Economy: Trends and Prospects
Greek Economy: Trends and Prospects
 

En vedette

Social Media Strategy, HSM Mexico
Social Media Strategy, HSM MexicoSocial Media Strategy, HSM Mexico
Social Media Strategy, HSM MexicoCharlene Li
 
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitación
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitaciónRealización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitación
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitaciónNatha Marín
 
6 pre reading material english
6 pre reading material english6 pre reading material english
6 pre reading material englishetindc
 
Brazil Ministry of Finance - Presentation
Brazil Ministry of Finance - PresentationBrazil Ministry of Finance - Presentation
Brazil Ministry of Finance - PresentationMúsica & Mercado
 
7 pre reading materials final spanish
7 pre reading materials final spanish7 pre reading materials final spanish
7 pre reading materials final spanishetindc
 
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA EDWINCARHUACHI
 
Etapas del proceso de la lectura
Etapas del proceso de la lecturaEtapas del proceso de la lectura
Etapas del proceso de la lecturaarturo zuñiga
 

En vedette (7)

Social Media Strategy, HSM Mexico
Social Media Strategy, HSM MexicoSocial Media Strategy, HSM Mexico
Social Media Strategy, HSM Mexico
 
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitación
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitaciónRealización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitación
Realización de una clase de inglés basado en teorías de la facilitación
 
6 pre reading material english
6 pre reading material english6 pre reading material english
6 pre reading material english
 
Brazil Ministry of Finance - Presentation
Brazil Ministry of Finance - PresentationBrazil Ministry of Finance - Presentation
Brazil Ministry of Finance - Presentation
 
7 pre reading materials final spanish
7 pre reading materials final spanish7 pre reading materials final spanish
7 pre reading materials final spanish
 
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA
LOS TRES PROCESOS DE LA LECTURA
 
Etapas del proceso de la lectura
Etapas del proceso de la lecturaEtapas del proceso de la lectura
Etapas del proceso de la lectura
 

Similaire à This is brazil

PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque
PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque
PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque portaldabetania
 
Julio Velarde - inPERU
Julio Velarde - inPERUJulio Velarde - inPERU
Julio Velarde - inPERUinperu
 
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastropOECD_Inclusivegrowth
 
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptx
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptxExemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptx
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptxssuser8ab554
 
Global economy key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy   key indicators - 2017 editionGlobal economy   key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy key indicators - 2017 editionVictoria Zagorsky
 
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEWLuis Taveras EMBA, MS
 
1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers
 1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers  1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers
1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers ipcprivatewealth
 
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de Empresarios
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de EmpresariosQuarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de Empresarios
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de EmpresariosCírculo de Empresarios
 
SDGs and Private Sector Opportunities
SDGs and Private Sector OpportunitiesSDGs and Private Sector Opportunities
SDGs and Private Sector OpportunitiesSDGsPlus
 
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfIrigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfbradgallagher6
 
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfOrme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfbradgallagher6
 
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosPerspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosCírculo de Empresarios
 
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.pptdanial287696
 
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015Cedric Chehab
 

Similaire à This is brazil (20)

PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque
PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque
PPT da Palestra do ministro Joaquim Levy em Nova Iorque
 
Julio Velarde - inPERU
Julio Velarde - inPERUJulio Velarde - inPERU
Julio Velarde - inPERU
 
Markets, He Wrote
Markets, He WroteMarkets, He Wrote
Markets, He Wrote
 
Why Invest in Peru : 2018
Why Invest in Peru : 2018 Why Invest in Peru : 2018
Why Invest in Peru : 2018
 
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop
2014.05.20_OECD-ECLAC-PSE Forum_kastrop
 
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptx
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptxExemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptx
Exemplu-Independent_Study_Rep.Moldova.pptx
 
Global economy key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy   key indicators - 2017 editionGlobal economy   key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy key indicators - 2017 edition
 
Global economy key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy   key indicators - 2017 editionGlobal economy   key indicators - 2017 edition
Global economy key indicators - 2017 edition
 
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW
2014-2015 NYS EXECUTIVE BUDGET OVERVIEW
 
An Outlook of the Colombian Economy
An Outlook of the Colombian EconomyAn Outlook of the Colombian Economy
An Outlook of the Colombian Economy
 
1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers
 1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers  1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers
1 tues_lunch to break_rana_managers
 
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de Empresarios
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de EmpresariosQuarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de Empresarios
Quarterly Report Q3 2015 Circulo de Empresarios
 
SDGs and Private Sector Opportunities
SDGs and Private Sector OpportunitiesSDGs and Private Sector Opportunities
SDGs and Private Sector Opportunities
 
Advance G20 release of OECD Economic Outlook
Advance G20 release of OECD Economic OutlookAdvance G20 release of OECD Economic Outlook
Advance G20 release of OECD Economic Outlook
 
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
 
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfIrigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Irigoyen_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
 
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdfOrme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
Orme_231129 - Around the world in 5 questions.pdf
 
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosPerspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
 
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt
603fafc95abf73a62ea02cf6_e-rossi_global_24nov2015.ppt
 
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015
Monthly Asia Presentation May 2015
 

Plus de Roberto Fermino

Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)
Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)
Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)Roberto Fermino
 
Ideias que emitem notas fiscais
Ideias que emitem notas fiscaisIdeias que emitem notas fiscais
Ideias que emitem notas fiscaisRoberto Fermino
 
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012Roberto Fermino
 
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração Roberto Fermino
 
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiro
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiroDiferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiro
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiroRoberto Fermino
 
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USA
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USARoberto Fermino featured e-Journal USA
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USARoberto Fermino
 

Plus de Roberto Fermino (10)

Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)
Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)
Palestra +EU (10 Chaves do Poder)
 
Startup genome
Startup genomeStartup genome
Startup genome
 
Ideias que emitem notas fiscais
Ideias que emitem notas fiscaisIdeias que emitem notas fiscais
Ideias que emitem notas fiscais
 
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012
Dropbox Space Race - Melhor Campanha de Marketing Digital em 2012
 
Startupapo ebook
Startupapo ebookStartupapo ebook
Startupapo ebook
 
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração
III Congresso dos Estudantes de Administração
 
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiro
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiroDiferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiro
Diferenças entre o cenário de empreendedorismo americano e brasileiro
 
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USA
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USARoberto Fermino featured e-Journal USA
Roberto Fermino featured e-Journal USA
 
Semana Empreendedor
Semana Empreendedor Semana Empreendedor
Semana Empreendedor
 
POSTO ESCOLAR
POSTO ESCOLARPOSTO ESCOLAR
POSTO ESCOLAR
 

This is brazil

  • 2. 2 • General Overview – Demographics, Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development • Recent Economic Indicators • National Financial System • Prudential Regulation and Supervision • Credit • Financial Inclusion • Investments Index
  • 4. 4 • Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and GDP • Brazil has vast natural resources, including recently discovered large offshore oil fields, a diverse industrial base, a dynamic and sophisticated private sector, and a well-structured public sector • Brazil is a vigorous democracy, with free multiparty elections and a stable political system • Brazil has good relations with all its neighbors and has increased its ties with all regions of the world Sources: IBGE / BCB Brazil Demographics General Overview • 6th largest GDP: US$ 2,475 billion (2011) • Continental country: 5th largest area 8,514,877 km2 • 5th largest population: 191 million people (2010)
  • 5. 5 • Sources: IBGE / UN Sources: IBGE / UN Demographics General Overview Dependency RatioPopulation Pyramid (2010) Note: The dependency ratio is the ratio of the sum of the population aged 0-14 and that aged 65+ to the population aged 15-64 • Brazil’s dependency ratio is still declining, while other countries already face an upward trend • Brazil’s population is highly concentrated within the Economically Active Population range -10 -5 0 5 10 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100+ millions of people men women 25 50 75 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brazil China India Russia
  • 6. 6 • Main features of the macroeconomic policy framework: - Inflation targeting - Fiscal responsibility - Exchange rate flexibility • The macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policy and strong bank supervision, resulted in: - Capacity to absorb internal and external shocks - Macroeconomic and financial stability - Sustainable growth - Credit and capital market development - Investment growth Macroeconomic Policy General Overview
  • 7. 7Sources: BCB / IBGE GDP Real Growth General Overview -4.4 1.0 -0.5 4.9 5.9 4.2 2.2 3.4 0.0 0.3 4.3 1.3 2.7 1.1 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 2.5 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* % *Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
  • 8. 8Sources: BCB / IBGE GDP General Overview 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* US$billion US$ 2,349 *Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
  • 9. 9Sources: BCB / IBGE GDP per Capita General Overview 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* US$ US$ 11,954 *Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12)
  • 10. 10Source: IBGE GDP Growth General Overview Annual growth (%) GDP Household consumption Government purchases Gross fixed capital formation Exports (goods and services) Imports (goods and services) 1Q 07 5.2 6.2 4.9 9.3 5.7 20.2 2Q 07 5.8 6.1 6.3 11.7 9.3 19.2 3Q 07 5.9 5.9 6.4 13.2 6.2 19.3 4Q 07 6.1 6.1 5.1 13.9 6.2 19.9 1Q 08 6.3 5.9 4.7 14.9 -1.7 14.3 2Q 08 6.4 6.2 3.1 15.7 2.3 18.1 3Q 08 6.6 6.7 3.8 16.9 2.8 18.6 4Q 08 5.2 5.7 3.2 13.6 0.5 15.4 1Q 09 -2.7 2.3 3.4 -13.6 -14.0 -13.9 2Q 09 -2.5 2.7 3.0 -13.6 -11.7 -13.5 3Q 09 -2.2 3.4 2.1 -11.9 -10.9 -12.7 4Q 09 -0.3 4.4 3.1 -6.7 -9.1 -7.6 1Q 10 9.3 8.5 3.1 29.9 15.4 40.6 2Q 10 9.0 7.3 4.6 28.5 10.7 39.6 3Q 10 8.3 6.8 4.8 25.4 10.9 39.8 4Q 10 7.5 6.9 4.2 21.3 11.5 35.8 1Q 11 4.2 6.0 1.8 8.8 4.0 13.4 2Q 11 3.8 5.8 2.7 7.5 5.2 14.1 3Q 11 3.2 4.8 2.2 5.7 4.8 11.0 4Q 11 2.7 4.1 1.9 4.7 4.5 9.7 1Q 12 1.9 3.2 2.3 2.1 5.1 8.2
  • 11. 11Source: IBGE Unemployment Rate General Overview %(seasonallyadjusted) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 May 12 5.4% up to May 12
  • 12. 12Source: IBGE Share of Formal Jobs General Overview shareofformaljobs(%) 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 up to May 12
  • 13. 13Sources: BCB / IBGE Inflation – Convergence to Target General Overview %,yoy target (4.5%) *Forecast from Central Bank of Brazil (Inflation Report – Jun 12) reference scenario* 0 2 4 6 8 10 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14
  • 14. 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Sources: BM&FBovespa / BCB Real Interest Rate General Overview %annual Jul 13th 1.7% 360-day market rate discounted by the IPCA expected for the next 12 months (Focus) up to Jul 13th
  • 15. 15Source: BCB Net Public Debt General Overview %ofGDP 52.0 60.4 54.8 50.6 48.4 47.3 45.5 38.5 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* *May 12 -25.4 p.p. of GDP
  • 16. 16Source: BCB Federal Securities - Breakdown General Overview * does not include securities held by the Central Bank Composition of total federal security debt (%)* 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012** Fixed rate 20.1 27.9 36.1 37.3 32.2 33.7 37.9 38.3 39.2 Price linked 14.9 15.5 22.5 26.3 29.3 28.6 28.1 29.6 33.2 Selic linked 52.4 53.3 40.2 36.6 33.6 35.8 32.5 30.9 26.0 Exchange rate 9.9 1.2 -1.1 -2.3 3.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 Other 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ** May 12
  • 17. 17 Trade Balance – Exports and Imports General Overview US$billion Source: MDIC 55 58 60 73 96 118 138 161 198 153 202 256 255 56 56 47 48 63 74 91 121 173 128 182 226 231 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* exports imports *12 months up to Jun
  • 18. 18Source: MDIC Trade Balance General Overview US$billion *12 months up to Jun -0.7 2.7 13.1 24.8 33.6 44.7 46.5 40.0 25.0 25.3 20.1 29.8 23.9 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
  • 19. 19Source: MDIC Exports in 2011 General Overview Composition Destination Primary Products 48.8% Manufactured Products 36.8% Semi- Manufactured products 14.4% US 10.1% EU*** 17.1% Germany 3.5% Asia** 12.6% China 17.3% Latin America & Caribbean* 13.5% Argentina 8.9% Others 16.9% * excluded Argentina ** excluded China and Middle East *** excluded Germany
  • 20. 20Source: MDIC Exports General Overview Annual Exports (US$ billion) primary semimanufactured manufaturactured others 2000 12.6 8.5 32.6 1.5 2001 15.3 8.2 33.0 1.7 2002 17.0 9.0 33.1 1.4 2003 21.2 10.9 39.8 1.3 2004 28.5 13.4 53.1 1.6 2005 34.7 16.0 65.4 2.5 2006 40.3 19.5 75.0 3.0 2007 51.6 21.8 83.9 3.3 2008 73.0 27.1 92.7 5.2 2009 62.0 20.5 67.3 3.2 2010 90.0 28.2 79.6 4.1 2011 122.5 36.0 92.3 5.3
  • 21. 21Source: MDIC Imports General Overview Annual Imports (US$ billion) durable goods non durable goods primary and intermediate goods capital goods fuel and lubricants 2000 3.4 3.9 28.6 13.6 6.4 2001 3.5 3.6 27.4 14.8 6.3 2002 2.5 3.4 23.5 11.6 6.2 2003 2.4 3.1 25.8 10.4 6.6 2004 3.2 3.7 33.5 12.1 10.3 2005 3.9 4.5 37.8 15.4 11.9 2006 6.1 5.9 45.3 18.9 15.2 2007 8.3 7.8 59.4 25.1 20.1 2008 12.7 9.8 83.1 35.9 31.5 2009 11.6 9.9 59.8 29.7 16.7 2010 18.6 12.8 84.0 41.0 25.3 2011 24.1 16.0 102.1 47.9 36.2
  • 22. 22 Current Account General Overview US$billion Source: BCB -16.3 -6.8 0.1 -0.2 -5.3 -1.4 4.2 1.0 -3.8 -1.4 6.1 -0.7-1.8 -18.4 -23.5 -30.5 -33.4 -25.3-24.2 -24.2 -23.2 4.2 11.7 14.013.6 1.6 -28.2 -24.3 -47.3 -52.5 -50.9 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 23. 23Source: BCB Current Account General Overview %ofGDP -6.0 -3.6 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -0.5 1.4 0.3 -0.8 -0.4 1.6 -0.2 -0.3 -2.4 -2.8 -3.5 -4.0 -4.3 -3.8 -4.2 -1.5 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.2-2.1-2.1 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 24. 24Source: BCB Foreign Direct Investment General Overview US$billion 3.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2 2.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.3 2.1 4.4 10.8 19.0 28.928.6 32.8 22.5 16.6 10.1 18.1 15.1 18.8 34.6 45.1 25.9 48.5 66.7 63.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 25. 25Source: BCB Foreign Direct Investment / GDP General Overview %ofGDP 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.9 5.1 4.1 3.3 1.8 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.7 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 26. 26Source: BCB FDI (-) Current Account Deficit General Overview %ofGDP -0.6 -0.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -0.5 0.6 1.3 -0.1 1.8 2.6 4.5 3.3 3.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 27. 27Source: BCB External Liability – Debt vs Equity General Overview 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* debt equity %oftotalexternalliability *May 12
  • 28. 28Source: BCB External Liability – Interest vs Profits General Overview 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* profit remittances interest payments US$billion *May 12 (12 months)
  • 29. 29Source: BCB Interventions and Exchange Rate General Overview US$billion BRL/US$ up to Jun 12 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 interventions (LHS) exchange rate (RHS)
  • 30. 30Source: BCB International Reserves General Overview US$billion 4 5 12 12 7 7 9 10 10 9 24 32 39 52 60 52 45 36 33 36 38 49 53 54 86 180 194 239 289 352 375 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* as of Jul 18th
  • 31. 31Source: BCB International Reserves General Overview %ofGDP 13.2 11.7 14.7 13.5 14.2 15.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* *May 12
  • 32. 32 International Reserves (Dec 2011) General Overview Sources: BCB / IMF 12.9 14.2 16.9 17.7 22.1 25.5 26.9 27.4 30.8 34.8 43.6 50.7 91.5 117.3 Mexico* Brazil Chile India Japan Denmark Russia Korea* Israel Hungary China Thailand Singapore Hong Kong *IMF estimates %ofGDP
  • 33. 33Source: BCB Net External Debt General Overview US$billion *estimate May 12 79 87 88 92 103106 96 97 105 108 100 99 88 92 101 131 182190 190 163 165 151 136 101 75 -12 -28 -62 -51 -73 -96-110 -70 -30 10 50 90 130 170 210 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012*
  • 34. 34Source: BCB External Debt Ratios General Overview 120.6% 63.4% 38.8% 20.4% 17.3% 12.3% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 short term debt/intl. reserves debt services/exports external debt/GDP Dec 03 May 12* % *estimate
  • 35. 35Sources: Moody’s / S&P / Fitch Brazilian Sovereign Ratings General Overview 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Moody's S&P Fitch Investment grade upgrades in 2011: • April: Fitch • June: Moody’s • November: S&P A3 / A- Baa1 / BBB+ Baa2 / BBB Baa3 / BBB- Ba1 / BB+ Ba2 / BB Ba3 / BB- B1 / B+ B2 / B B3 / B-
  • 36. 36Sources: National Treasury / Bloomberg Public External Debt: Yield General Overview External debt federal bonds 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.4 2.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Apr10 Jul10 Jul11 Jan12 current* %p.a. %p.a. Global 2021 Global 2041 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sep09 Sep10 Nov11 current* *Jul 15th
  • 37. 37 Main Economic Indicators General Overview 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross Domestic Product GDP (USD bn) 663.8 882.4 1,088.8 1,366.5 1,650.9 1,625.6 2,143.9 2,475.1 2,349.3/1 GDP (USD per capita) 3,665.2 4,812.0 5,867.3 7,282.7 8,706.7 8,489.8 11,093.9 12,696.1 11,953.9/1 Real GDP (growth rate) 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 (0.3) 7.5 2.7 2.5/1 Household consumption 3.8 4.5 5.2 6.1 5.7 4.4 6.9 4.1 3.5/1 Gross fixed capital formation 9.1 3.6 9.8 13.9 13.6 (6.7) 21.3 4.7 1.0/1 Economic Activity Unemployment rate (annual average) 11.5 9.9 10.0 9.3 7.9 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.8 /2 Real payroll (growth rate) 1.6 4.2 5.9 5.8 6.9 3.9 7.4 4.8 5.1 /2 Industrial production (growth rate) 8.3 3.1 2.8 6.0 3.1 (7.4) 10.5 0.3 -1.8 /2 Consumer price index (% yoy) 7.6 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 4.9 /5 Fiscal (consolidated public sector. % of GDP) Primary balance 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.4 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.0/2 Public sector net debt 50.6 48.4 47.3 45.5 38.5 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.0/4 Balance of Payments Exports (USD bn) 96.7 118.5 137.8 160.6 197.9 153.0 201.9 256.0 258.0/1 Imports (USD bn) (62.8) (73.6) (91.4) (120.6) (173.0) (127.7) (181.7) (226.2) (240.0) /1 Current account (USD bn) 11.7 14.0 13.6 1.6 (28.2) (24.3) (47.4) (52.5) (56.0) /1 Current account (% of GDP) 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 (1.7) (1.5) (2.2) (2.1) (2.4) /1 Foreign direct investment (USD bn) 18.1 15.1 18.8 34.6 45.1 25.9 48.4 66.7 50.0/1 Foreign direct investment (% of GDP) 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.1/1 International reserves (USD bn) 52.9 53.8 85.8 180.3 193.8 238.5 288.6 352.0 375.1/3 /1 Central Bank forecast /4 in May 12 /2 12 months until May 12 /5 12 months until Jun 12 /3 on Jul 18th
  • 38. 38 • Both macroeconomic and inclusion policies have led to marked improvement in living conditions • A significant share of low income groups joined the middle class Social Development General Overview
  • 39. 39Source: IBGE Gini Index – Income Inequality General Overview 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Poverty headcount ratio below poverty line (LHS) Gini Index (RHS) %ofpopulation index(0to1)
  • 40. 40Source: FGV Social Mobility General Overview 49 25 17 47 39 32 66 105 118 13 23 29 0 50 100 150 200 2003 2011 2014* E D C A/B millionsofpeople Social Classes *FGV forecast
  • 41. 41Source: FGV Social Mobility General Overview Social Classes (% composition) 2003 2011 2014* A/B 7.6 11.8 14.9 C 37.6 55.1 60.2 D 26.7 20.3 16.4 E 28.1 12.9 8.6 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 *FGV forecast
  • 42. 42Sources: IBGE / FGV Per Capita Income Growth (Per Percentile) General Overview 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Higher Income Lower Income annual average 2001-2009
  • 44. 44Source: IBGE Industrial Production Recent Economic Indicators 2007=100 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 industrial production capital goods May 12 / Apr 12 -0.9% seasonally adjusted up to May 12 May 12 / Apr 12 -1.8%
  • 45. 45Source: FGV Industrial Confidence Recent Economic Indicators s.a.index(100=indifference) 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 up to Jun 12
  • 46. 46Source: Markit Industrial Activity (PMI) Recent Economic Indicators s.a.index(50=indifference) 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 up to Jun 12
  • 47. 47Source: FGV Industrial Capacity Utilization Recent Economic Indicators % 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 historical average Jun 12 83.8 up to Jun 12 seasonally adjusted
  • 48. 48Source: IBGE Retail Sales Recent Economic Indicators 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 retail sales retail sales (incl. automobiles and construction materials) May 12 / Apr 12 -0.8% May 12 / Apr 12 -0.7% 2007=100 seasonally adjusted up to May 12
  • 49. 49Source: FGV Confidence in Commerce Recent Economic Indicators index(100=indifference) 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 up to Jun 12
  • 50. 50Source: FGV Confidence in Services Recent Economic Indicators index(100=indifference) up to Jun 12 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Aug08 Feb09 Aug09 Feb10 Aug10 Feb11 Aug11 Feb12
  • 51. 51Source: IBGE Industrial Production vs. Retail Sales Recent Economic Indicators 2007=100 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 industrial production expanded retail sales (incl. automobiles and construction inputs) May 12 / Apr 12 -0.9% May 12 / Apr 12 -0.7% seasonally adjusted data up to May 12
  • 52. 52Source: FGV Consumer Confidence Recent Economic Indicators Sep05=100 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 historical average seasonally adjusted Jun 12 123.5 up to Jun 12
  • 53. 53Source: IBGE Unemployment Rate Recent Economic Indicators % 5.8 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 54. 54Sources: BCB / IBGE IBC-Br Recent Economic Indicators % May 12 1.4 1.9 2.5 5.3 7.6 7.5 6.3 4.9 3.7 2.7 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 IBC-Br in 12 months GDP in 12 months up to May 12 Leading Indicator IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index)
  • 55. 55Source: BCB IBC-Br (seasonally adjusted) Recent Economic Indicators Leading Indicator IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index) % 0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.9 -0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.3 1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 0.3 -0.3-0.3 -0.5 0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 up to May 12
  • 56. 56Sources: IBGE / FGV Producer Price Indexes Recent Economic Indicators 0 3 6 9 12 15 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 IPP IPA (10, M and DI) %in12months 4.73% IPP May 2012 8.04% IPP Dec 2010 6.13% IPA-10 Jul 2012 13.73% IPA-10 Dec 2010
  • 57. 57Source: FGV General Price Index Recent Economic Indicators 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 IGP (10, M and DI) %in12months 6,03% IGP-10 Jul 2012 11.16% IGP-10 Dec 2010
  • 58. 58Sources: IBGE / Fipe / FGV Consumer Price Indexes Recent Economic Indicators %in12months IPC-Fipe 2nd week= 4.30% Jul 2012 INPC = 4.90% Jun 2012 IPC-10= 5.31% Jul 2012 IPCA= 4.92% Jun 2012 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 IPCA-15 and IPCA INPC IPC-Fipe IPC (10, M and DI)
  • 59. 59Source: IBGE Consumer Price Index (IPCA) General Overview change yoy (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Consumer Price Index (IPCA) 7.6 5.7 3.1 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 4.9 Food and beverage 3.9 2.0 1.2 10.8 11.1 3.2 10.4 7.2 7.3 Housing 7.1 6.4 3.1 1.8 5.1 5.7 5.0 6.7 6.5 Household equipment 5.4 2.7 -2.7 -2.5 2.0 3.1 3.5 0.0 -1.6 Apparel 10.0 7.1 5.1 3.8 7.3 6.1 7.5 8.3 5.3 Transportation 11.0 8.1 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.1 0.5 Health and personal care 6.9 6.2 6.0 4.5 5.7 5.4 5.1 6.3 6.1 Personal expenses 6.9 7.0 7.3 6.5 7.4 8.0 7.4 8.6 9.1 Education 10.4 7.2 6.2 4.2 4.6 6.1 6.2 8.1 7.3 Communication 13.9 6.4 -0.2 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 Tradables 6.3 2.7 1.3 4.7 7.0 2.6 6.9 4.4 3.0 Non tradables 6.9 6.4 4.0 6.6 7.1 5.5 7.3 8.6 7.5 Regulated 10.2 9.0 4.3 1.7 3.3 4.7 3.1 6.2 3.8 Services 6.7 6.8 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.4 7.6 9.0 7.5 *Jun 12 (12 months)
  • 60. 60Source: BCB Commodity Price Index General Overview Dec05=100 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Dec05 Jun06 Dec06 Jun07 Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 IC-Br IC-Br agriculture Jun 12/May 12 -0.2% Jun 12/May 12 -1.4% IC-Br: Brazilian Commodity Price Index in BRL; up to Jun 12
  • 61. 61Source: BCB FX Inflows General Overview US$billion(12months) up to Jun 12 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 trade in goods and services financial total
  • 62. 62Source: BCB FX Inflows (monthly data) Recent Economic Indicators -5 0 5 10 15 20 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 trade in goods and services financial total US$billion up to Jun 12
  • 64. 64 National Monetary Council (CMN) - Composed by the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Planning, Budget and Management and the Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil - Establishes the inflation target for monetary policy, prudential rules and credit policy - The Central Bank of Brazil is the financial supervisory authority Source: BCB National Financial System National Financial System NATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM National Council of Private Insurance- CNSP National Monetary Council - CMN Securities and Exchange Comission - CVM Other financial intermediaries Stock Exchange Bovespa Commodities and Futures Exchange Central Bank of Brazil - BCB Other financial intermediaries Exchange Brokers Financial Institutions Management Council of Complementary Pension -CGPC
  • 65. 65 Central Bank of Brazil – Main Activities National Financial System Monetary Policy Financial Regulation Financial Supervision Wide scope of Central Bank’s authority helps policy coordination
  • 66. 66 Number of Institutions by Type The National Financial System Source: BCB Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Multiple bank 135 140 139 137 139 137 Commercial bank 20 18 18 19 20 22 Development bank 4 4 4 4 4 4 Savings bank 1 1 1 1 1 1 Investment bank 17 17 16 15 14 15 Exchange bank 2 2 2 Consumer finance company 52 55 59 61 59 58 Securities brokerage company 107 107 105 103 99 97 Exchange brokerage company 46 45 45 44 47 52 Securities distribution company 135 135 125 125 126 120 Leasing company 38 36 33 32 31 30 Real estate credit company and savings and loan association 18 16 16 14 14 12 Mortgage company 6 6 6 7 8 7 Development agency 12 12 14 15 16 16 591 592 581 579 580 573 Credit cooperative 1,465 1,453 1,405 1,370 1,312 1,279 Micro-entrepreneur credit company 52 47 45 45 42 42 2,108 2,092 2,031 1,994 1,934 1,894 Consorcio company 329 317 308 300 284 257 Total 2,437 2,409 2,339 2,294 2,218 2,151 * Jun 12
  • 67. 67Source: BCB Top 10 Financial Institutions National Financial System Name Ownership Total assets (BRL billion) Credit and leasing operations (BRL billion) Total deposits (BRL billion) Net worth (BRL billion) Employees (Thousand) Branches (#) Basel capital ratio (%) Banco do Brasil Federal government owned 955 404 447 59 130 5,267 14.7 Itaú Domestic private 857 295 240 74 120 3,855 15.6 Bradesco Domestic private 692 240 214 58 100 4,645 14.9 BNDES Federal government owned 618 214 21 63 3 1 20.9 Caixa Federal government owned 558 269 269 21 107 2,347 12.8 Santander Foreign controlled private 424 176 123 67 54 2,518 24.0 HSBC Foreign controlled private 147 48 71 9 30 868 13.4 Votorantim Domestic private 148 55 26 8 2 35 13.0 Safra Domestic private 116 41 15 6 6 106 12.6 BTG Pactual Domestic private 91 4 16 7 1 7 16.8 Others 679 279 221 88 75 1,801 Banking segment total 5,213 2,023 1,662 458 629 21,450 Mar 12
  • 68. 68Source: BCB Brazilian Banks - Capital Adequacy Ratio The National Financial System 13.8 14.8 16.6 19.0 18.5 17.4 17.8 17.3 17.7 18.9 16.9 16.3 16.0 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Brazilian banks capital ratio Basel minimum capital ratio regulatory minimum capital ratio % leverage ratio: 10.2 *Jun 12
  • 70. 70 • All FIs regulated and supervised • Financial regulation mostly infra-legal • Convergence to international standards (IFRS, Basel 2, 2.5 and 3, IOSCO) • Participation in international forums (BCBS, G20, FSB) • Rigorous financial regulation General Features Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 71. 71 • Risk-based approach to supervision • On-site supervision - frequent on-site examinations - rating of supervised institutions – qualitative assessment of risk management and control – analysis of financial and economic indicators – identification of areas to be monitored • Includes contingency planning and assessment of organizational structures dedicated to risks Financial Supervision - Main Features Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 72. 72 • Directs on-site supervision towards the riskier areas • Specific monitoring of market and liquidity risks - uses information on assets and derivatives registered in clearing houses - conciliation with FIs’ accounting information • Monitoring of aggregate evolution of systemic risk over time • Periodic application of stress tests to FIs’ statements Off-Site Supervision Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 73. 73 • Central Bank has detailed information about all credit operations above BRL 1,000: - 289 million credit operations with detailed information - 45 million debtors - Covers 96% of Brazilian banking credit market - Information shared with banks, enabling better risk assessment - Allows Central Bank to carry out in-depth and timely analysis of the financial system’s and individual bank’s loan portfolios Comprehensive Overview of the Credit Market Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 74. 74 • Minimum capital ratio: 11% of RWA (above Basel minimum of 8%) • Capital requirement for credit risk on trading book exposures • Lower risk weights for residential property exposures conditioned to loan-to-value - LTV < 50% 35% risk weight - 50% < LTV < 80% 50% risk weight - 80% < LTV < 100% 75% (retail) or 100% (otherwise) • Highest multiplier for standardized market risk requirement • Forward-looking provisioning rules Rigorous Regulation Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 75. 75 • Mandatory organizational structure for management of each risk factor - Credit, market and operational risks - Board accountability on risk management • Limits on large exposures • Limits on foreign currency exposures • Mandatory registration of OTC derivatives • Mandatory internal controls Rigorous Regulation Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 76. 76 • Provisions based on expected and incurred losses, reducing procyclicality • Full provisioning is required 6 months after delinquency (fast provisioning) • Write-offs are required 6 months after full provisioning • Central Bank applies the most conservative credit risk classification possible for each borrower (conservative provisioning) Rigorous Regulation Prudential Regulation and Supervision
  • 78. 78Source: BCB Credit / GDP Credit 25.8 26.0 24.6 25.7 28.3 30.9 35.2 40.5 43.7 45.2 49.0 50.1 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* %ofGDP 2009-2011: 18.3% (average growth of nominal credit) 2005-2008: 25.2% (average growth of nominal credit) *May 12
  • 79. 79Source: BCB Overall Credit Credit *May 12 % of GDP Households Corporates Total 2001 9.6 16.3 25.8 2002 9.3 16.7 26.0 2003 9.4 15.2 24.6 2004 10.5 15.2 25.7 2005 12.3 16.0 28.3 2006 13.8 17.1 30.9 2007 16.0 19.2 35.2 2008 17.6 22.9 40.5 2009 19.6 24.0 43.7 2010 20.6 24.6 45.2 2011 22.7 26.3 49.0 2012* 23.5 26.6 50.1
  • 80. 80Source: BCB *It does not include mortgage and credit to small farmers. Credit by Economic Sector Credit **May 12 % of GDP Public Sector Industry Real Estate Agriculture Retail and Services Households* Total 2001 0.8 7.6 1.8 2.1 7.4 6.2 25.8 2002 0.9 7.8 1.7 2.4 7.3 6.0 26.0 2003 0.9 6.9 1.5 2.8 6.8 5.8 24.6 2004 1.0 6.4 1.3 3.0 6.9 7.0 25.7 2005 1.0 6.5 1.4 3.1 7.6 8.8 28.3 2006 0.8 6.9 1.5 3.3 8.4 10.0 30.9 2007 0.7 8.0 1.7 3.4 9.5 11.8 35.2 2008 0.9 9.8 2.1 3.5 11.4 12.8 40.5 2009 1.8 9.4 2.8 3.5 11.9 14.3 43.7 2010 1.8 9.6 3.7 3.3 12.3 14.6 45.2 2011 2.0 10.1 4.8 3.4 13.4 15.3 49.0 2012** 2.1 10.1 5.4 3.4 13.6 15.5 50.1
  • 81. 81Source: BCB Earmarked / Total Credit Credit 34.3 37.5 38.9 36.3 33.5 32.0 29.4 29.0 32.5 34.6 35.7 35.9 0 10 20 30 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* %oftotalcredit *May 12
  • 82. 82Source: BNDES BNDES Disbursements by Business Sector Credit 46 48 40 50 53 40 43 46 47 32 28 35 30 38 36 33 40 39 35 31 40 39 12 14 17 9 7 8 6 5 6 7 9 7 8 5 5 7 12 12 14 16 21 24 0 20 40 60 80 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Industry Infrastructure Farming Retail and Services % *Jan-Apr 12
  • 83. 83Source: BCB Credit to Real Estate / Total Credit Credit %oftotal 6.5 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.5 9.0 11.1 13.1 14.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* credit to real estate other credits *Apr 12
  • 84. 84Source: BCB Securitized Housing Credit Credit 0.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 4.2 8.3 7.9 7.7 9.9 9.7 11.0 11.2 10.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* securitized non-securitized %ofhousingcredit *Apr 12
  • 85. 85Sources: BCB / World Bank Housing Credit / GDP Credit 102.1 93.9 88.7 72.7 65.5 63.2 62.0 40.0 37.4 36.7 30.6 24.3 18.4 14.0 13.0 12.5 6.0 5.1 2.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Switzerland Netherlands United Kingdom United States Portugal Canada Spain Germany France South Korea South Africa Japan Italy Chile China Mexico India Brazil Russian Federation
  • 86. 86Source: BCB Non-Performing Loans Credit up to May 12 % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jan02 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Corporations Individuals Monetary tigthening cycles Arrears above 90 days
  • 87. 87Source: BCB Provisions (% of Non-Performing Loans) Credit 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% 200% 210% 220% 230% Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 provisions/NPLs 3-mo moving average up to May 12
  • 89. 89 • Increased capital requirements for consumer loan exposures involving longer maturities. Macroprudential Measures Operation Maturity Risk Weight Vehicles (financing and leasing) up to 60 months 75%* or 100% more than 60 months 150% Payroll-deducted loan up to 60 months 75%* or 100% more than 60 months 300% Personal loan up to 36 months 75%* or 100% between 37 and 60 months 150% more than 60 months 300% Other consumer loans * retail operations Unchanged Credit
  • 90. 90 • Established unremunerated reserve requirement on short spot FX positions above a limit - Limit: the lowest between US$1 billion and the bank’s capital base • Minimum payment for credit card bill - 15% (June 2011) • Established the Financial Stability Committee (Comef) within the Central Bank, in order to coordinate the Bank's efforts to monitor, evaluate, and mitigate systemic risk - Membership: Governor and Deputy Governors - Bimonthly meetings Macroprudential Measures Credit
  • 91. 91Source: BCB Credit to Households – Non-Performing Loans Credit Non-performing loans composition by period (date in which the operations was set) Includes credit to vehicles, leasing operations, payroll-deducted loans and not payroll-deducted loans 38.7 19.7 24.8 28.6 27.1 49.5 57.7 38.8 49.0 50.3 10.5 19.2 26.8 13.4 14.8 1.3 3.4 9.6 9.0 7.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 May 12 Last 12 months 13 to 24 months ago 25 to 36 months ago Other %
  • 92. 92Source: BCB Credit to Households – Non-Performing Loans Credit Contribution for the household non-performing loans by credit maturity 19.3% 14.1% 37.7% 28.9% Up to 3 years Within 3 and 4 years Within 4 and 5 years Above 5 years *May 12
  • 94. 94Sources: BCB / IBGE Geographic Coverage Increased Financial Inclusion 2000 2010 0 (20%) >0 to 2 (22%) >2 to 5 (40%) >5 to 10 (16%) >10 (2%) # of points per 10,000 adults (% of municipalities) 0 (0%) >0 to 2 (0%) >2 to 5 (6%) >5 to 10 (29%) >10 (65%) # of points per 10,000 adults (% of municipalities) 82% of municipalities had less than 5 points per 10,000 adults in 2000. In 2010, 94% were above this level. Bank branches, bank advanced outposts (PAA), credit cooperatives (headquarters and outposts) and correspondents
  • 95. 95Source: BCB Access to Banking Services Financial Inclusion 2002 2009 2011 Accounts (for the banking sector) 55,708,468 83,308,800 91,944,421 Customers 87,630,527 151,102,765 174,791,126 Branches For the banking sector 17,049 20,046 21,278 For all financial institutions 17,756 21,287 22,628 Posts of service (for the banking sector) 32,769 53,628 60,375 ATM’s 129,913 165,567 174,920 Domestic correspondents 78,539 151,351 177,925 Municipalities Without banking services 222 - - With banking services 5,358 5,566 5,564 Municipalities banking services coverage 96% 100% 100%
  • 96. 96 • Definition: non-financial firms hired by FIs to render basic banking services on their behalf • Main correspondent chains are post offices, lottery outlets, supermarkets • Over 180,000 points of sale, compared to 20,000 branches of FIs (May 2011) • Allows banking system to cover all 5,566 municipalities • Due diligence and anti-money laundering rules apply to correspondents Bank Correspondents Financial Inclusion
  • 97. 97 • Main services are handling basic account transactions and receiving loan applications, processing payments, and transferring funds • Bank-based model: financial institution (licensed, supervised) takes full responsibility for the services • Correspondent may not charge additional fees to the public for its services • Main activity of the correspondent has to be commercial, non-related to financial services Bank Correspondents Financial Inclusion
  • 98. 98 • Benefits for the bank - Broadens client basis - Smaller overhead and direct costs - Informal environment: more inviting for lower-income customers - Flexible hours of operation • Benefits for the correspondent - Transaction fees from the bank - Use of spare capacity - Increased flow of customers - Links the firm to a renowned brand Synergies in Correspondent Banking Financial Inclusion
  • 99. 99 Complementary Channels are Important Financial Inclusion Sources: BCB / IBGE Bank branches – 2010 Bank branches, outposts, credit cooperatives and correspondents – 2010 All municipalities have at least one bank branch, outpost or correspondent. Correspondents contribute to network density 0 (38%) >0 to 1(25%) >1 to 5 (26%) >5 to 10 (13%) >10 (14%) # of points/1,000 km2 (percentage of municipalities) 0 (0%) >0 to 1(3%) >1 to 5 (12%) >5 to 10 (12%) >10 (73%) # of points/1,000 km2 (percentage of municipalities)
  • 101. 101Source: IBGE Investment Rate at a New Level Investments 18.3 16.9 17.4 17.0 15.7 16.8 17.0 16.4 15.3 16.1 15.9 16.4 17.4 19.1 18.1 19.5 19.3 19.1 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* %ofGDP *1Q 2012 (12 months)
  • 102. 102Source: BCB Foreign Direct Investment General Overview US$billion 3.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2 2.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.3 2.1 4.4 10.8 19.0 28.928.6 32.8 22.5 16.6 10.1 18.1 15.1 18.8 34.6 45.1 25.9 48.5 66.7 63.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* *May 12 (12 months)
  • 103. 103 Brazil is a Major Recipient of FDI Investments Source: Ministry of Planning • State-owned companies and the private sector will act as government partners (*) PAC - Growth Acceleration Plan is a common management umbrella under which are major infrastructure projects PAC* expected investment (USD billion) until 2014 Logistics 67.2 Power Generation & Transmission 260.0 Social & Urban Mobility 200.4 Total 527.6
  • 104. 104Source: Ministry of Planning Investment Projects Map Investments Port of Manaus - concession South Bahia and Deep Water ports - concession HPP Jirau (USD 7.3 bn) and Sto. Antonio (USD 2.3 bn) - PPP HPP Belo Monte (USD 14.4 bn) - PPP SP-Rio high speed train (USD 18 bn) - concession Midwest integration railway North-South railway East-West integration railway São Paulo (USD 2.5 bn) and Campinas Airports (USD 4.8 bn) - concession Brasilia Airport (USD 1.6 bn) - concession Natal Airport (USD 0.4 bn) – concession BR-040 and BR-116 (USD 3.0 bn) - concession Refineries and petrochemical plants (USD 76 bn) Oil drilling and production development (USD 405 bn) - private Other 21 HPP (USD 21 bn) – PPP Power grid – 42,000 km. (USD 27 bn) - concession Subways and urban trains (USD 7 bn) Social housing: 2 million houses (USD 69 bn) - PPP Q Q Q Q
  • 105. 105Source: BNDES Investment Prospects - Industry Investments US$ billion Growth 2007-2010 2012-2015 % Oil and gas 136 202 48.5 Mining 39 29 -25.2 Steel 18 18 0.6 Petrochemical 14 17 19.5 Vehicles 18 31 74.0 Electronics 13 18 37.1 Pulp and Paper 11 12 8.3 Textile and Apparel 6 8 33.3 Aviation 2 5 198.6 Total 257 341 32.5 Mar 12
  • 106. 106Source: BNDES Investment Prospects - Infrastructure Investments US$ billion Growth 2007-2010 2012-2015 % Electric Power 81 90 10.6 Telecoms 41 42 4.6 Sanitation 18 25 33.5 Railroads 14 26 76.8 Roads 23 30 32.9 Ports 5 9 61.9 Airports 1 6 333.9 Total 184 227 23.3 Mar 12
  • 107. 107Source: Petrobras Brazilian Oil Reserves Investments 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 future* deepwater offshore fields (pre-salt layer) *estimated volume Tupi and Iracema* (8 billion boe) Franco* (4.5 billion boe) Libra* (8 billion boe) Iara* (4 billion boe) Guara* (2 billion boe) crude oil, NGL and natural gas billion–barreloilequivalent(boe)
  • 108. 108 BCB Central Bank of Brazil BNDES National Bank of Economic and Social Development CMN Brazilian National Monetary Council CVM Brazilian Securities Commission FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Fipe Economic Research Institute Foundation FGV Getulio Vargas Foundation IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IMF International Monetary Fund Ipea Institute for Applied Economic Research MDIC Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade UN United Nations Glossary