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three black rob hahn real estate
            swans of
#1: The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility




         House Financial Services Subcommittee
         on Housing and Community Opportunity
           “The Changing Real Estate Market”
                       July, 2006
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility



                                      “Second, because the MLSs
                                      and Realtor.com so dominate
                                      listing services, they function
                                      as a near-monopoly and
                                      should be regulated as a
                                      public utility.”




 Stephen Brobeck Executive Director
 Consumer Federation of America
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility




     then 2008 happens
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility




                       “The absence of relevant data for
                       use in RMBS modeling left the
                       credit rating agencies unable to
                       accurately predict mortgage
                       default and loss rates when
                       housing prices stopped
                       climbing.”
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility




          No National Coverage
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility




                           Powered By
1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility


‣ Detailed listings data for everyone!

‣ Pay to use; get paid to add (see, electric
  utilities & solar power)
‣ Rules & fees set by government regulators

‣ Compliance a matter of law

‣ No cooperation and compensation
#2: Realogy Acquires Zillow
2. Realogy Acquires Zillow



                                                              vs.

             Market Cap                                                   Market Cap
             $6.35 billion                                                $1.84 billion
                Revenues                                                   Revenues
               $4.7 billion                                              $116.8 million
Core Operating Cash Flow                                            Core Operating Cash Flow
      $593 million*                                                       $32.3 million
  * I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy
2. Realogy Acquires Zillow




             What’s missing?
2. Realogy Acquires Zillow



                                                              +
 Unparalleled footprint                                           50 million monthly uniques

  Strong management                                                 Enormous technology
      track record                                                      capabilities
 Core part of industry;                                               30% of GCI Model
  ultimate “insider”                                                   (see relocation)
  * I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy
2. Realogy Acquires Zillow

‣ Massive recruiting & retention advantage for
  Realogy companies
‣ Syndication no longer an issue

‣ Realogy gets more “broker leads” for
  overrides & Zillow gets relocation-type
  referral revenues
‣ Veteran leadership, meet brilliant young
  entrepreneurs
#3: WalMart Realty Expands
3. WalMart Realty Expands
3. WalMart Realty Expands



‣ 2013 Forecast for Existing Home Sales:

4.98 million sales
$173,600 median price
‣ US Housing Market = $864 billion

‣ Industry GCI (@6%) = $51.84 billion
3. WalMart Realty Expands




‣ NRT is largest brokerage in the U.S.

‣ 710 offices with 41,300 agents

‣ 289,409 closed sides in 2012

‣ $3.4 billion in revenues in 2012 (7.8%)
3. WalMart Realty Expands



‣ 2.2 million employees
  worldwide
‣ 4,637 stores in the US

‣ 100 million customers
  every week
‣ Has brokerage licenses
3. WalMart Realty Expands




 this license more difficult to obtain
3. WalMart Realty Expands


   walmart data center             Area 71
    colorado springs             Caverna, MO




‣ World-class information technology

‣ Big Data & Predictive Analytics

‣ In 2004, WalMart had 460 terabytes of data
  (twice the size of the Internet)
3. WalMart Realty Expands




                     +
How’s that for a discount brokerage?
   ‣ Footprint + Technology + Management

   ‣ Dominant Cost Competition Advantage
3. WalMart Realty Expands
scenario strategy
 leads to planning
Thank You!


rhahn@7dsassociates.com
       @robhahn

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Three black swans 2.0

  • 1. three black rob hahn real estate swans of
  • 2. #1: The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
  • 3. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity “The Changing Real Estate Market” July, 2006
  • 4. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility “Second, because the MLSs and Realtor.com so dominate listing services, they function as a near-monopoly and should be regulated as a public utility.” Stephen Brobeck Executive Director Consumer Federation of America
  • 5. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
  • 6. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility then 2008 happens
  • 7. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
  • 8. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
  • 9. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility “The absence of relevant data for use in RMBS modeling left the credit rating agencies unable to accurately predict mortgage default and loss rates when housing prices stopped climbing.”
  • 10. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility
  • 11. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility No National Coverage
  • 12. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility Powered By
  • 13. 1. The MLS Becomes a Public Utility ‣ Detailed listings data for everyone! ‣ Pay to use; get paid to add (see, electric utilities & solar power) ‣ Rules & fees set by government regulators ‣ Compliance a matter of law ‣ No cooperation and compensation
  • 15. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow vs. Market Cap Market Cap $6.35 billion $1.84 billion Revenues Revenues $4.7 billion $116.8 million Core Operating Cash Flow Core Operating Cash Flow $593 million* $32.3 million * I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy
  • 16. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow What’s missing?
  • 17. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow + Unparalleled footprint 50 million monthly uniques Strong management Enormous technology track record capabilities Core part of industry; 30% of GCI Model ultimate “insider” (see relocation) * I estimated this figure in my premium Report on Realogy
  • 18. 2. Realogy Acquires Zillow ‣ Massive recruiting & retention advantage for Realogy companies ‣ Syndication no longer an issue ‣ Realogy gets more “broker leads” for overrides & Zillow gets relocation-type referral revenues ‣ Veteran leadership, meet brilliant young entrepreneurs
  • 20. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
  • 21. 3. WalMart Realty Expands ‣ 2013 Forecast for Existing Home Sales: 4.98 million sales $173,600 median price ‣ US Housing Market = $864 billion ‣ Industry GCI (@6%) = $51.84 billion
  • 22. 3. WalMart Realty Expands ‣ NRT is largest brokerage in the U.S. ‣ 710 offices with 41,300 agents ‣ 289,409 closed sides in 2012 ‣ $3.4 billion in revenues in 2012 (7.8%)
  • 23. 3. WalMart Realty Expands ‣ 2.2 million employees worldwide ‣ 4,637 stores in the US ‣ 100 million customers every week ‣ Has brokerage licenses
  • 24. 3. WalMart Realty Expands this license more difficult to obtain
  • 25. 3. WalMart Realty Expands walmart data center Area 71 colorado springs Caverna, MO ‣ World-class information technology ‣ Big Data & Predictive Analytics ‣ In 2004, WalMart had 460 terabytes of data (twice the size of the Internet)
  • 26. 3. WalMart Realty Expands + How’s that for a discount brokerage? ‣ Footprint + Technology + Management ‣ Dominant Cost Competition Advantage
  • 27. 3. WalMart Realty Expands
  • 28. scenario strategy leads to planning

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. “ a rare bird in the lands, very much like a black swan” - Juvenal, Roman writer Describes things often thought of as impossible.
  2. Patricia Combs President, NAR 2006
  3. As the wise sage Biggie Smalls once said, “things done changed”
  4. According to a team at Bloomberg News, at one point last year the U.S. had lent, spent or guaranteed as much as $12.8 trillion to rescue the economy.
  5. According to a team at Bloomberg News, at one point last year the U.S. had lent, spent or guaranteed as much as $12.8 trillion to rescue the economy.
  6. Credit rating agencies did not have good data.
  7. Then you have RE industry telling Wall Street how awesome MLS data is for predictive analytics.
  8. Realogy’s revenues are 40X that of Zillow. Its cash flows are 18X Zillow’s.
  9. “ A key advantage of mainstream brokerage, then, will be the extent to which it can make financially advantageous deals with those portals.”
  10. Realogy: Worldwide -- 240K agents in 13,600 offices. 1.26 million U.S. transaction sides in 2012.
  11. Did you know WalMart had a real estate division?