Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc, presented the Shells updated strategy as laid out in February of 2012 and the financial and operational highlights of 2011.
Simon Henry - Credit Suisse conference in Vail Colorado, February 8, 2012
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
COMPANY UPDATE
February 8, 2012
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
2. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining
reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell”
are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used
to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or
companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly
has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control
are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation,
associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or
indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all
third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than
statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on
management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ
materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal
Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements
are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’,
‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including
(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential
acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to
international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and
financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental
entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place
undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December,
2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the
date of this presentation, 8 February 2012. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the
forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the
future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in
filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also
obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
4. SHELL
Managing through extreme volatility
Customer and Profitability & Updating our outlook
partner focus performance
Sustainability & Value added Through-cycle investment and portfolio
growth technology choices
4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
5. CONTINUED FOCUS ON HSSE PERFORMANCE
‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY
injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours
5 900
Focus on personal and process safety
4 800
3 700
Rigorous global standards
2 600
1 500
Industry leader in Sustainable Development
0 400
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
WORKING HOURS (RHS) TRCF
EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS PER MILLION WORKING HOURS; SHELL OPERATED FACILITIES; PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE FOR 2011
5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
6. GROWTH DELIVERY 2009-2011
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION
billion boe resources
35
Longer-term upside Carmon Creek
Geronggong
BC-10 Ph. 3 (Massa)
25 Prelude FLNG Tempa Rossa
AOSP debottl. Fram
NA tight gas / Malikai
shales AOSP debottl. + Quest
Clair Ph2 NA tight gas/shales
15 Schiehallion
Pearl GTL Pluto (Woodside)
QatarGas-4 Harweel
Schoonebeek NA tight gas/shales
5
Qarn Alam EOR Eagle Ford
West Qurna 1 IPT
-5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ON-STREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION STUDY PRODUCTION
Growing opportunity funnel
12 bln boe on stream, maturing additional ~20 billion boe
6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
7. 2012+ PRIORITIES
12 billion boe resources on stream
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Drive new cashflow growth:
GROWTH DELIVERY +30-50 % CFFO 2012-15 versus 2008-11*
Maturing >60 projects; ~20 billion boe resources
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
Exploration + bolt-on deals
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
2017-18 production potential ~4 mboe/d average
* CFFO OUTLOOK @$80-$100/BBL BRENT AND ASSUMES IMPROVED US GAS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM 2011; CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS
7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
8. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
2012+ GROWTH PROJECTS
8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
9. GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+
KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Schiehallion
Redevelopment Clair Ph2
AOSP
Debottlenecking
Corrib
Kashagan Ph1
North America tight gas
Eagle Ford Port Arthur Majnoon FCP
Mars B UAE
Cardamom Amal Steam
RESOURCES Harweel Gumusut-Kakap
Sabah Gas
billion boe Kebabangan
Bonga NW
30
Prelude FLNG
Wheatstone LNG
North Rankin 2
20 Pluto LNG T1 (Woodside)
BC-10 Phase 2 Gorgon LNG T1-3
Under Greater Western Flank Ph 1
START-UP DATE
10
Construction
2012-13
2014-15
2016+
0
26 projects under construction
9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
10. GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+
MAINTAINING LNG LEADERSHIP
AUSTRALIA – INDONESIA: 2011 PROGRESS SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH
Abadi entry mtpa
• Inpex 60%
• Shell 30%
• EMPI 10% 40.0
Wheatstone
2012 FEED
Pluto T1 & Prelude
(Woodside)
Abadi FLNG
20.0 Gorgon
Greater Sunrise T1-3
FIDs Prelude FLNG
Browse 0.0
2011 ~2020+
Wheatstone North West Shelf ONSTREAM CONSTRUCTION OPTIONS
Pluto (Woodside)
Gorgon SHELL LNG LEADERSHIP
Arrow Energy LNG: year end mtpa
Bow Energy acquisition ~90% long-term contracted
Shell-PetroChina 50/50 30
~80% of portfolio oil price linked
PRODUCTION
20
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
OPTIONS
10
~20 mtpa on-stream
~8 mtpa under construction 0
Shell Exxon Chevron BG Total BP
Assessing ~ 15 mtpa future options 2011 2017
PROJECTS ONSTREAM OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION
10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
11. GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+
REGAINING MOMENTUM IN GULF OF MEXICO
Vito Appomattox
~100 kboe/d potential ~100 kboe/d hub potential
>200 million boe resources Appraisal drilling underway
Shell 55% (operator) > 250 million boe resources
Shell 80% (operator)
Nakika
Mars-B Mars
W.Boreas, S. Deimos Ursa
100 km
Mars-B, Olympus tension leg platform Brutus
Cardamom Deep DISCOVERY FID START-UP
Auger Caesar Tonga
Perdido
Mars B
Holstein
Caesar Tonga
Cardamom
Stones
Stones
45 kboe/d potential
Shell 35% (operator)
Appomattox
Vito
ONSTREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION OPTIONS 2005 2010 2015 2020
~185 kboe/d 2011- ~350 kboe/d potential ~2017
Drilling 5+ exploration wells 2012
11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
12. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
MATURING NEW GROWTH
OPTIONS
12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
13. MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS
DOWNSTREAM: SELECTIVE GROWTH
2012 CAPEX
$ billion
6
UK Retail
LNG to transport Lubes Russia
Rhineland Connect 4
Gas-to-
chemicals
Port Arthur China Retail + Lubes 2
Qatar China refining
chemicals and chemicals
0
CHEMICALS GROWTH
Raízen
REFINING BASE
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
OPTIONS MARKETING/OTHER
2011 DEALS
Nanhai chemicals Singapore chemicals Raízen Port Arthur Qatar chemicals
Gas-to-chemicals US
China
2006 2010 2011 2012 FUTURE
Value chains and leveraging our brand
13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
14. MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS
2011 EXPLORATION + BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
2011 EXPLORATION & ACQUISITIONS RESOURCES MATURATION / POTENTIAL
billion boe
4
Marcellus
Clair Eagle Ford
Groundbirch Abadi
Iraq
Liquids-rich
Arrow
shales
Marcellus China tight gas Groundbirch
2
Eagle Ford Zaedyus
Tologbene GAS
OIL
Acme West 0
Satyr-3
Vos
Arrow '08 '09 '10 '11
-2
DISCOVERY NEW EXPLORATION ACREAGE
APPRAISAL RESOURCES PLAY ENTRY
2011 delivery:
EXPLORATION/APPRAISAL
2.3 billion exploration + appraisal DISPOSALS
>4 billion boe E&A + deals~; ~30% tight/shale gas
PRODUCTION
>140,000 km2 new acreage in 2011 RESOURCES-BASED DEALS
2008-11 delivery: ~13 billion boe at $2-3/boe (E&A + deals)
14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
15. MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS
BUILDING WORLD-WIDE TIGHT GAS + LIQUIDS-RICH
SHALES PORTFOLIO
Canol Groundbirch
Montney Deep Basin
Germany
Bakken Foothills
Ukraine
Pinedale Utica
Niobrara
Marcellus Turkey Wells Manufacturing JV with CNPC
Monterey Mississippi Lime
Wolfcamp Haynesville Egypt China tight gas
Eagle Ford
Oman
Colombia
Neuquen TIGHT GAS
LIQUIDS POTENTIAL
2011 ENTRY
Drilling rig – Alberta
~50,000 km2 (~12 million acres) acreage world wide
~12,000 km2 (~3 million acres) liquids-rich shales added 2011; ~$2 billion, ~$825/acre
15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
16. MATURING NEW GROWTH OPTIONS
NORTH AMERICA GAS VALUE CHAINS
LEVERAGE SHELL INTEGRATION KNOW-HOW EXAMPLE: COMMERCIALISING LNG FOR TRANSPORT
Fort St John Fort Mc Murray
Grande Prairie
Gas into oil pricing opportunity
Canada Green Corridor FID 2011
FID for 0.3 mtpa LNG Edmonton
Long distance truck fuel
LNG retail infrastructure
Assessing gas potential:
Calgary
Vancouver Jumping Pound
• LNG-for transport Canada
ENGINES MODIFIED FOR LNG
• Western Canada LNG
• Gas-to-chemicals in Appalachia
• GTL options
Canada: Jumping Pound Gas Plant LNG powered truck
16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
17. CAPITAL INVESTMENT
STRONG PROJECT FLOW DRIVES INVESTMENT GROWTH
capital investment $ billion
Thematic
Schiehallion
Redevelopment
AOSP Debottlenecking
EXPLORATION 30
Clair Ph2
LNG for transport
UK Retail
HEAVY OIL & EOR North America NA LRS
tight gas
TIGHT/SHALE OIL/GAS US chemicals Basrah Gas Company
Eagle Ford
UPSTREAM
Mars-B Qatar chemicals
Cardamom Sabah Gas Kebabangan
DEEPWATER
20
Abadi FLNG
Raízen
INTEGRATED GAS NWS GWF Ph1 Prelude FLNG
BC-10 Ph2 Wheatstone LNG
TRADITIONAL 10
FID 2010-2011
DOWNSTREAM 2011 PORTFOLIO GROWTH
2011 2012
$ billion 2010 Target 2011 Target
0
Organic investment 24 28 26 ~32
2012
Acquisitions 7 2.5 5
Disposals (7) (5) (7) (~2-3)
Net Capital Investment 24 25-27 24 ~30
17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
18. GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+
UPDATING OUR GROWTH OUTLOOK
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES SUSTAINED CASH FLOW GROWTH
million boe/day $ billion
4.0
200 200 $100/bbl
$80/bbl
3.5 150 150
$87/bbl Brent
100 100
3.0
50 50
2.5 0 0
2009 2010 2011 2017-18 2008 -2011 2012 – 2015
average POTENTIAL
PRODUCTION + POTENTIAL CASH FLOW FROM NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT
2010-11 ASSET SALES OPERATIONS DIVIDENDS AND BUYBACKS
FUTURE ASSET SALES AND LICENSE EXPIRIES
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK @ $80/BBL BRENT. CFFO OUTLOOK ASSUMES IMPROVED US GAS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM 2011; CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS
18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
19. SUMMARY
2012+ PRIORITIES
12 billion boe resources on stream
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Drive new cashflow growth:
GROWTH DELIVERY +30-50 % CFFO 2012-15 versus 2008-11*
Maturing >60 projects; ~20 billion boe resources
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
Exploration + bolt-on deals
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
2017-18 production potential ~4 mboe/d average
* CFFO OUTLOOK @$80-$100/BBL BRENT AND ASSUMES IMPROVED US GAS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM 2011; CFFO EXCLUDES WORKING CAPITAL MOVEMENTS
19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012
20. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
Q&A
20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 2 February 2012