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1. 2010 CO N S T R U C T I O N F O R E C A S T W H I TE PA P E R S E RIES
Time to Prepare for the
Construction Recovery
Jim Haughey, RCD Chief Economist
May 5, 2010

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Contractors and their suppliers should be shifting their focus now from coping with a declining
market to planning for an expanding market. Most construction market companies will have
to deal with unpaid debts from the long recession and lingering credit rating and equity
participation shortfalls for another year or more. Nonetheless, they should be preparing to get a
share of soon expanding bid opportunities as soon as they are able to arrange for more capital or
credit.
Unmistakable signals are now appearing that the economic recovery is sustainable and that it
will soon lead to increasing demand for building space and facility capacity. This has already
happened in many housing markets and for some types of nonresidential projects in a small but
growing number of regional markets. With space and facility completions continuing to slow,
the space and capacity surpluses that prevent new project starts will soon be ebbing. Market by
market, project type by project type, this turnabout will gradually happen over the next year.
How quickly construction activity begins to expand depends on how long it takes to absorb the
existing space and capacity surplus. In turn, this depends on the current size of the surplus and
the timing and pace of increasing demand. Uniquely in this business cycle, the lag between
economic recovery and construction recovery also depends on how quickly access to credit
returns to normal.
The economic recovery is sustainable
GDP has now expanded for three consecutive quarters at average pace of 3.8%, assuming a 3.5%
increase in the first quarter of 2010. Concerns about a double dip recession are now seldom
heard. Instead the discussion has shifted to how quickly the recovery will proceed. GDP growth
in the first three quarters was about the half the pace of previous deep recessions. And the pace
of recovery will slow, as always after the initial surge. GDP growth is forecast to average about
2.5% for the balance of 2010 and through 2011.
The relatively slow recovery is typical after a “financial crisis” recession. This is due to lingering
problems replacing capital lost in defaulted loans, damaged balance sheets, more cautious use
of financial leverage and lenders’ aversion to risk.
However, the economic recovery is sustainable even if the growth rate is relatively low compared
to historical norms. Sustainability is measured by the trends in the most cyclical sectors of the
economy: business investment, inventory investment and consumer durables consumption.
All of these sectors are now rising strongly enough to pull up the more stable sectors of the
economy after them. A recession has never occurred when the three most cyclical sectors of the
economy are expanding.
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Cyclical economic sectors now expanding
Last Last 4
Quarter Quarters
Consumer Durables annual % change 3.2 7.3
Inventory annualized change, $ billions 15 -80
Business Equipment Investment annual % change 5.6 7.6
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Sustainability is also assured by the federal commitment to aggressive monetary and fiscal policy
as well as the ongoing exogenous surge is US exports to an expanding international economy.
Fiscal policy is extraordinary expansionary with federal deficit jumping about 1 $ Trillion.
Concern about the deficit will limit further federal spending increases. The huge jump in the
deficit is a serious threat to economic growth several years ahead but the near term impact in
unambiguously expansionary. Similarly, monetary policy remains expansionary nine months after
the recession was over. This is longer than usual. The Federal Reserve Board has committed to
hold down interest rates for at least six more months. Interest rates have risen slightly recently
with more gains ahead later this year. However, interest rates will remain low enough that they
will exert only marginal restraint on economic recovery this year.
The latest economic reports have shown a clear pickup in the pace of economic growth. This
includes consumer spending, exports, factory orders, sales and production, housing starts,
and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Only confidence has yet to show sustained
improvement although it has rebounded from the winter dip caused in part by unseasonably
poor weather.
Economic recovery is accelerating
March 10 vs. Feb 10
% Changes
Housing Starts 1.6
Retail Sales 1.6
Exports 0.3
Manufacturing Production 0.9
Manufacturing Orders 0.5
Index of Leading Economic Indicators 1.4
Employment (000’s) 162,000
Source: Federal Reserve Board and US Dept. of Commerce
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The across the board improvement in the economy in March is partly due to a rebound from
unseasonably poor weather earlier in the winter as well as the beginning of huge number of
Census 2010 hires. But accounting for both of these impacts, the long decline in employment
ended in March. Within a few months this will have a very positive impact on both consumer
and business confidence. Rising confidence will accelerate the absorption of surplus building
spaced and facility capacity. The number of households (occupied housing units) declined during
the recession as unemployed workers doubled up in rental units or moved back with their
parents. The improved labor market will prompt the creation of more households in the next few
months.
The lingering credit problems from the past recession are now having only a marginal negative
impact on economic growth; but the constraint is predominately in the construction market.
Many contractors and their suppliers always have damaged finances and restricted credit access
at this point in the business cycle. It is the extra damage and restriction stemming from the
2008 credit collapse that will extend the usual lag between economic recovery and construction
recovery in 2010.
The problem for the construction market is that lenders are reluctant to invest in real estate
so soon after being burned in the housing market and while they are now coping with a rising
tide of troubled commercial mortgages, many now worth much less than their face value. This
reluctance will fade very slowly over the next few years. Washington countered the shortage of
credit in the housing market by directly providing most the funds for residential mortgages for
a year and a half. But there is much less federal aid for the now troubled commercial mortgage
market.
Reed Construction Data expects that the unique financial constraints in this construction
recovery will delay recovery in the private nonresidential construction market by only a few
months. Most of the impact will be a stretch out of the recovery period as lenders return very
cautiously to commercial real estate.
Construction spending decline ends in a few months
Jobsite construction spending fell 8.4% in the last four months through February. This
overestimates market weakness because of the substantial negative impact from unseasonably
poor weather during the winter and an implausible surge in residential remodeling reported for
last October, the base month. Nonetheless, there was a real decline of about 4-5%.
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Housing outlook
During that period single family housing construction spending rose only 3.7% during the lull
after the expiration of the first homebuyer tax credit. Permits rose sharply to an annual rate of
543,000 in March assuring that housing starts and residential construction spending will rise at a
more rapid pace in the spring and summer, probably at a 20% plus annual rate.
The recovery in single family housing faces a lot of headwinds but is expected to overcome them
and be the fastest growing construction sector in 2010. While the oversupply of existing homes
is a major headwind, homebuilders have reduced the inventory of new homes for sale to an
extremely low level. Additional sales will require additional home starts. The additional sales
will be spurred by the expansion of the job count which began in March. The recovery will take
several years to get single family housing starts back to the underlying demographic trend set by
population growth.
Multi family construction spending declined nearly 20% in the four months through February. It
is now at less than half of the peak level reached in May 2008. March permits increased to an
annual rate of 142,000; except for last December, this is the highest level in year and a half. A
20% gain in multi family construction spending is expected over the next year. This will be driven
by the increase in jobs which leads to a surge in new households that rent apartments. The new
renters move out from crashing on friends or their parents.
Year/Quarter
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Data for chart (page 5)
Housing Starts (000’s)
Yr./Qtr. Yr./Qtr.
08.1 1059 10.1 617
08.2 1017 10.2 660
08.3 868 10.3 700
08.4 658 10.4 733
09.1 528 11.1 766
09.2 540 11.2 806
09.3 587 11.3 854
09.4 559 11.4 910
Source: History: Census Bureau
Forecast: Reed Construction Data
Commercial construction spending
Commercial construction spending fell 13% in the four months through February. The drop
was 30% for hotels, 12% for office and 6.5% for retail. This decline will slow sharply during the
balance of 2010 with spending turning up at yearend. Commercial project starts have trended
lower in recent months with March starts very weak but little if any further decline in starts is
expected in 2010.
Developers focus on the market conditions when their project is completed. Projects started this
spring will be completed late in 2010 or in 2011 when commercial occupancy and rental rates
have begun to rise again. This turnabout in national statistics will still leave some lagging cities
with declining occupancy and rental rates. And even in cities with rising occupancy and rental
rates, the expected net operating income of newly completed building will be too low to spur
developers to add more space. It will still be cheaper to buy than build.
But within a year there will be more niches where it is cheaper to build than buy. A share of
these buildings will start soon. In some cities this will be in the form of previously started then
suspended projects being resumed with new financing. Hence, commercial building starts are
not expected to drop any lower and will average higher than the weak March 2010 starts report.
Retail will recover first followed by offices which is turn will be followed by hotels. Lodging will
be the last to recover because of the recent overbuilding in casino and destination hotels which
dominated the hotel construction market in recent years. Construction of hotels targeted to
consumer and business travelers will recover much sooner than construction of destination hotels.
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Year/Quarter
Data for chart (above)
Commercial Construction Spending
$ Billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Yr./Qtr. Yr./Qtr.
08.1 194 10.1 103
08.2 197 10.2 101
08.3 193 10.3 100
08.4 181 10.4 100
09.1 163 11.1 101
09.2 149 11.2 103
09.3 130 11.3 105
09.4 114 11.4 108
Source: History: Census Bureau
Forecast: Reed Construction Data
Institutional construction spending
Institutional construction projects are started when their government or non-profit owners have the
construction funds in hand or committed, whether by legislative appropriations, user fees, dedicated
tax increases, bonding, donations or capital fund earnings. Occupancy and rental rates are not a
concern since the building will be owner occupied and not leased. Access to private market credit is
a minor concern for those projects that need cash before their dedicated funds are available.
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Hence, institutional construction spending continued to increase through last June, nine months
after the credit freeze and the onset of a deep recession. Funding for the construction work that
continued or was started during that period was already in hand or committed. The recession
came late to this sector. Construction spending has dropped 16% since last June. Spending has
been just short of steady for the last three months with only a marginal decline forecast during
spring and summer based on the recent decline in the value of institutional project starts,
especially in education and healthcare.
The decline in institutional construction spending will turn out to be only one-third as deep as
the decline in commercial construction spending. The institutional market is always steadier
because of its funding sources and its use as a means to stimulate spending and jobs during a
recession. The February 2009 stimulus plan appropriated over $50 billion for the construction or
renovation of public and institutional buildings. Most of this has yet to be spent. The stimulus
funds will dampen the recession for institutional buildings.
The recent decline and the lack of any improvement in the next six months are due primarily to
the collapse of state and local government tax receipts over the last five quarters. This includes
an estimate by the Rockefeller Institute of Government that receipts fell further in the first
quarter of 2010. This is the steepest drop in tax receipts in more than 50 years. It is causing
cutbacks in public construction, especially K-12 education and public safety facilities that will
persist through 2011 and possibly beyond.
K-12 education has the most risk for further declines since it is heavily dependent on property
tax receipts which continued to expand well into 2009 because they are based on much earlier
property value assessments. Higher education has and will continue to fare better because
construction funds come heavily from tuition receipts which have continued to expand and from
capital funds, now expanding rapidly again.
Healthcare construction spending has fallen 20% since the peak level last June but the decline
has been very small in the last three months with no further decline expected. Hospital building
programs, especially at university hospitals, were cautiously cut or delayed early in the recession.
The caution was the result of concern about the cost and availability of short term commercial
borrowing, the usual concern about profit margins at for profit hospital chains and uncertainty
about the outcome of the Washington healthcare reform debate – specifically the so called
“public option”. None of these issues are any longer as concerning.
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Year/Quarter
Data for chart (above)
Institutional Construction Spending
$ Billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Yr./Qtr. Yr./Qtr.
8.1 188 10.1 167
8.2 194 10.2 167
8.3 195 10.3 167
8.4 195 10.4 171
9.1 195 11.1 175
9.2 198 11.2 180
9.3 189 11.3 185
9.4 174 11.4 192
Source: History: Census Bureau
Forecast: Reed Construction Data
Heavy construction spending
Heavy construction spending weathered the recession better than building construction
spending. Heavy spending rose through last September and has dropped less than 7% since
then through February with only minor further declines expected for the rest of 2010. The
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heavy market received a substantial boost from the “shovel ready” portion of the stimulus plan.
That boost is now ebbing with little likelihood of additional federal highway stimulus money.
Instead, the failure of Congress to replace the failed federal highway funding system assures that
highway construction spending will not keep up with project cost increases until at least late in
2010.
The large power construction market, mostly electricity generation, but also oil& gas surface
facilities and pipelines began to decline last October after more than doubling in the previous
three years. This is a very cyclical sector that is expected to decline more than 20% in the next
two years. The decline would be larger without the energy stimulus funds and mandates for
alternative energy sources. Several large pipelines are set to start soon for ethanol, Canadian
natural gas and US natural gas from recently developed shale formation in the Northeast and
Rocky Mountains.
Construction spending in the balance of the heavy construction sector is unchanged from a year
ago although water has weakened significantly due to the sharp cut back in site development.
Construction spending for transportation and communications facilities and water, sewer and
conservation projects are all expected to be slightly higher a year ahead although probably not
enough to fully cover higher project costs.
The spending drivers will be delayed spending of stimulus funds, a rebound in pace with the rest
of the economy in demand for new transportation and communications facilities and a pick up in
site work and the need for new water/sewer lines with the recovery in housing and, to a lesser
extent, the initial recovery in nonresidential buildings.
Note that the site work and utility expansion comes very early for a building project and that
building starts will expand quicker and sooner than building construction spending.
Year/Quarter
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Data for chart (page 10)
Heavy Construction Spending
($ Billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Yr./Qtr. Yr./Qtr.
8.1 264 10.1 269
8.2 268 10.2 269
8.3 271 10.3 269
8.4 270 10.5 271
9.1 262 11.1 273
9.2 276 11.2 275
9.3 282 11.3 276
9.4 275 11.4 280
Source: History: Census Bureau
Forecast: Reed Construction Data
Construction suppliers
Many suppliers involved at the design stage will see the earliest signs of recovery.
However a large number of projects have already passed through this stage and then were
halted. So a more than usual share of the design work for projects that will start in the next
year has already been done. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) tracking of design
activity suggests that the current work level is just short of stable. Similarly, employment data
for architecture and engineering employers suggests that several years of layoffs may soon be
ending.
Construction equipment manufacturers have had increasing sales for nearly a year but it was
all export business. Domestic purchases continued to decline until March when equipment
orders, sales and apparent domestic purchases all rose significantly. Strengthening sale prices on
used equipment sold by equipment rental houses has been reported recently by Rouse Assets
Services.
The construction materials market shrank about 20% over three years but then recorded a
reasonably up tick in March with gains reported for orders, production, sales and sales through
retailers. The one month surge may not be sustainable but a progressive recovery of this market
is expected to begin about mid-year.
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