2. Company Overview
Dahej Terminal Kochi Terminal
Solid Cargo Port Direct Marketing
OVERVIEW
3. Company Overview
Dahej Terminal
Installed Capacity Long term GSPA
16 12
2.5
in MMTPA
12
in MMTPA
2.5 8 2.5
8 5
4 7.5
4
5
0 0
RasGas Gazprom (MoU)
Source: Company estimates, CMIE database Source: Company estimates
OVERVIEW
4. Company Overview
5 MMTPA installed capacity by Dec 2012.
Kochi Terminal
20 year GSPA with Mobi Australia Company Ply Ltd:
o 1.44 MMTPA LNG from its Gorgon
project.
o Expected date of start - Jan 2015.
OVERVIEW
5. Company Overview
Solid Cargo Port with Adani Petronet (Dahej) Port
Private Ltd.
Solid Cargo Port 26% equity holdings
Import-export to the tune of 15 MMTPA capacity of
dry bulk cargo/year (Coal, Steel and Fertilizers).
OVERVIEW
6. Company Overview
Forayed into direct RLNG marketing.
LNG supply at consumer premises through trucks.
Planning to supply LNG to Coastal area consumers.
Direct Marketing
OVERVIEW
13. Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning
Cost benefit analysis- Power Projects
5.89
7
Power cost (INR/unit)
6
4.51
4.25
4.05
3.91
3.85
5
3.65
3.39
3.7
3.25
3.19
2.92
4
3
2
1
Source: Student research
0
Cost of fuel Cost of fuel Cost of fuel
Pithead Project 3.19
INR 3500/MT 3.39
INR 3800/MT 3.65
INR 4200/MT
Within 1000Kms 4.05
INR 3500/MT 4.25
INR 3800/MT 4.51
INR 4200/MT
Imported Coal 3.25
INR 4500/MT 3.7
INR 5600/MT 3.85
INR 5600/MT
Gas based Project $ 7/mmbtu
2.92 3.91
$ 10/mmbtu 5.89
$ 16/mmbtu
Threat of Substitutes Coal in Power Projects Naptha & Fuel oil in Fertilizer plant
Shale Gas:
Most of the Shale gas reserve is expected to be across
Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan, and many coastal areas.
Indian Gov is likely to bring in bidding for Shale gas acreages
by 2012.
Lack of exploration policies is one of the major hurdles in
shale gas exploration.
Also, the production/exploration process is likely to pollute
air and water.
Availability of conjunctive use of resources (land & water) is
a complex socio-political issue.
Petrol & Diesel Shale Gas
OVERVIEW
15. Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning
Cost benefit analysis- Power Projects Cost-benefit analysis - Fertilizer Plant
Shale Gas:
5.89
7
615
608
700
Power cost (INR/unit)
6
525
4.51
512
600
4.25
4.05
3.91
Power & Feed cost
3.85
(INR/MT of Urea)
443
5
Most of the Shale gas reserve is expected to be across
3.65
410
3.39
3.7
3.25
500
3.19
2.92
4
320
400
3
200
300
2
140
Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan, and many coastal areas.
200
1
Source: Student research
100
Source: Student research
0
Cost of fuel Cost of fuel Cost of fuel 0
Input Cost Input Cost Input Cost
Indian Gov is likely to bring in bidding for Shale gas acreages
Pithead Project 3.19
INR 3500/MT 3.39
INR 3800/MT 3.65
INR 4200/MT
Within 1000Kms 4.05
INR 3500/MT 4.25
INR 3800/MT 4.51 Natural gas 140
$ 7/MMBTU 200
$ 10/MMBTU 320
$ 16/MMBTU
INR 4200/MT
Imported Coal 3.25
INR 4500/MT 3.7
INR 5600/MT 3.85 Fuel Oil 410 512
$ 100/barrel 615
$ 120/barrel
INR 5600/MT
Gas based Project $ 7/mmbtu
2.92 3.91
$ 10/mmbtu 5.89 Naphtha 443
$ 800/MMBTU 525
$ 9500/MT 608
$ 1100/MT
$ 16/mmbtu
by 2012.Power Projects
Threat of Substitutes Coal in Naptha & Fuel oil in Fertilizer plant
Lack of exploration policies is one of the major hurdles in Shale Gas:
Most of the Shale gas reserve is expected to be across
shale gas exploration. Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan, and many coastal areas.
Indian Gov is likely to bring in bidding for Shale gas acreages
Also, the production/exploration process is likely to pollute by 2012.
Lack of exploration policies is one of the major hurdles in
shale gas exploration.
air and water. Also, the production/exploration process is likely to pollute
air and water.
Availability of conjunctive use of resources (land & water) is Availability of conjunctive use of resources (land & water) is
a complex socio-political issue.
a complex socio-political issue.
Petrol & Diesel Shale Gas
OVERVIEW
16. Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning
Upcoming LNG Projects
90 SAGE
TAPI
80 in MMTPA Upcoming LNG Projects
Jamnagar, RIL
70 Projects Owners FY12 FY15 FY16 FY18 FY20
Pipavav, BG group
60 West coat Dahej PLL 10 5 2.5
in MMTPA
50 Ennore, IOCL Hazira Shell 3.5 1.5
40 Mudra, Adani Kochi PLL 5 2.5
30 East Coast, PLL
Dabhol RGPPL 5
Dabhol, RGPPL
20 East Coast PLL 5
Kochi, PLL
10 Mudra Adani 5
Hazira, Shell
0 Dahej, PLL Ennore IOCL 5
FY12 FY15 FY16 FY18 FY20
Source: News sources West Coast 2.5
Pipavav BG group 5
Jamnagar RIL 5
TAPI 11
Threat of Competitors SAGE 9
OVERVIEW
17. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Timely Capacity Addition
Contractual Benefits
Upcoming pipeline infra to increase market reach
Proposed Developments
WHY INVEST IN PLL
18. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Timely Capacity Addition
South Dahej LNG Terminal
India Demand-Statewise PLL - TimelyLNG Terminal
Kochi capacity addition
100
390
80 Designed to meet northern and86western India
340 Poised to capture southern India’s demand.
78
demand.
290
60 48 49 Linked with GSPL’s network in Gujarat, the state
48
40 Linked with GSPL’s network in Gujarat, the state 240
consumes about 33% of the natural gas in India.
consumes about 33% of the natural gas in India.
19 190
20
140 Well connected with the HVJ & DUPL pipelines,
0 Well connected with the HVJ & DUPL pipelines, which provides direct access to western &
which 11provides direct access FY toE western &
FY FY 15 E 20
northern India.
Kerala Karnataka
northern India. Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Capacity
Source: Company estimates, student research Demand
gap
Supply
Total Supply Source: Student research
WHY INVEST IN PLL
19. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Timely Capacity Addition
South India Demand-Statewise Kochi LNG Terminal
100
80 86 Poised to capture southern India’s demand.
78
60 48 49 Will be linked with Kochi-Mngalore-Dabhol
48
40 pipeline & Mangalore Chennai pipeline ensuring
19 smooth distribution.
20
0 Estimated demand of 5.1 MMTPA around kochi.
FY 11 FY 15 E FY 20 E
Kerala Karnataka
Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh
Total Supply Source: Student research
WHY INVEST IN PLL
20. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Long term supply linkage benefits:
Company is targeting to secure 70-75% of its
Contractual Benefits installed capacity through long term GSPA.
Ensure reliable supply of natural gas at stable
to lower rates as compared to spot rates.
Helps company in maintaining a healthy stable
margin.
WHY INVEST IN PLL
21. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Take or Pay agreement benefits:
Management is in view of having 70-75% of their
Contractual Benefits installed capacity consumption through these
agreements.
Enables company to insulate its earning from the
price-demand shocks.
The company has a GSPA on take or pay basis with
GAIL, IOCL and BPCL for 7.5 MMTPA of R-LNG in
the ratio of 60:30:10 respectively.
WHY INVEST IN PLL
22. Why invest in Petronet LNG
GAIL has extensive plans for laying pipeline
network:
• Expand its pipeline network from 8000 Kms
to in FY11 to 14000Kms by FY14 .
• Transmission capacity to inc. from 150
mmscmd to 300 mmscmd during the same
Upcoming pipeline infra to increase market reach
period.
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. has also been
authorized by petroleum and natural gas regulatory
board to lay three new cross country pipelines by
FY14.
WHY INVEST IN PLL
23. Why invest in Petronet LNG
Direct distribution of LNG:
East Coast LNG Terminal:
• Exploring opportunities to supplycarry
PLL Board has given approval to LNG
to coastal area consumers
out detailed feasibility study. through
• small LNG vessels be India and by
Plant is expected to in operational Sri
Lanka
FY2016.
• Entered into retail marketing through
Will cater to the growing demand of gas
trucks to the region of the country.
in East coast customer’s premises.
Proposed Developments
WHY INVEST IN PLL
24. Why invest in Petronet LNG
3x356 MWLNG Terminal:
East Coast Gas-based Power Plant:
•
• Estimated cost – USD 870 million. carry
PLL Board has given approval to
• Transmission capacity study. from 150
out detailed feasibility to inc.
• mmscmdexpected mmscmd during the
Plant is to 300 to be operational by
same period.
FY2016.
•
• Firmcater to the growing demand of gas
Will commitment awaited from
Gujaratcoast region of controlled utility
in East government the country.
to finalize the investment.
Proposed Developments
WHY INVEST IN PLL
25. Why invest in Petronet LNG
East Coast LNG Terminal:
• PLL Board has given approval to carry
out detailed feasibility study.
• Plant is expected to be operational by
FY2016.
• Will cater to the growing demand of gas
in East coast region of the country.
Proposed Developments
WHY INVEST IN PLL
30. Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow
Cash flow estimation by ‘Sum-of-part approach’:
Dahej Annual capital expenses has been distributed based on the
2nd Jetty, COD – FY13
LNG Terminal estimates of past project of PLL.
Expansion, COD FY16 Dahej Annual capital expenses in terms of percentage has been assumed
LNG Terminal to be same as Dahej P-II as both are 5 MMTPA brown field project.
Project, COD – FY13 Kochi Annual capital expenses has been distributed based on the
LNG Terminal estimates of past project of PLL.
Project, COD – FY17E East Coast Annual capital expenses in terms of percentage has been assumed
LNG Terminal to be same as Kochi as both are 5 MMTPA green field project.
VALUATION
31. LNG Pricing
For Dahej Terminal:
• The FOB value of LNG was fixed at $2.53 per mmbtu during the period CY04-08.
• From Jan 2009 onwards this is being gradually linked to JCC.
• The upward adjustment will continue till Jan 2014, when LNG prices shall reflect a linkage of
12.5% with JCC.
For Kochi Terminal:
• In line with the GSPA with ExonMobil, FOB value of LNG is expected to be at 14.5% of JCC.
JCC forecasting:
• Correlation coefficient of 0.93 has been observed between Nymex crude oil price & JCC.
• JCC has been regressed against Nymex crude’s future price for the last 44 months.
• Price forecasting for JCC has been carried out with the regression equation obtained.
VALUATION
32. Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow
Gas Sourcing: As per management’s target
Long term GSPA 75% In case of Dahej, 10% from spot and 15% from
Short term GSPA +Spot 25% medium to short term GSPA
RLNG contribution margin 12.1% As % of revenue, Average of last 3 years
Other costs 2.51% As % of revenue, Average of last 5 years
Working capital 3.26% As % of revenue, Average of last 5 years
Depreciation 5.08% As % of opening gross block, Avg of 5 years
VALUATION
33. Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow
WACC:
FY 12 to FY 20 11.60% RFR=8.3%, Beta = 0.82, Debt : Equity=42.9%
Terminal 10.06% RFR=6.0%, Beta = 0.95, Debt : Equity=25%
Terminal Parameters
Terminal Growth rate 3% In long term country’s real GDP is expected to
Return on Capital 15% grow at 2% with 2% inflation & hence, company
Reinvestment rate 20% is expected to grow at a nominal rate of 3%.
VALUATION
34. Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow
Target Price: In INR crores
PV(Project’s cash flow) 21270 Project’s cash flow discounted at WACC
+
PV(Equity inv. in port) 162 Equity income from port discounted at cost of
+ equity
PV(Other investment) 28 Cash inflow from investment in bonds/debt
-
Current value of Debt 3352 Book value of debt as in balance sheet
=
Equity value 18108 Value of company in hands of equity holders
VALUATION
35. Valuation
FY12 year end target price:
Including East Coast Project: INR 241
Excluding East Coast Project: INR 213
VALUATION
36. Risk Analysis
Possible
Stronger Competition, GDP growth rate,
Shale Gas
TAPI & SAGE Limited no. of supplier
Unlikely
Likelihood
Political instability Market Risk
Earthquake, Tsunami
Plant Machinery Failure,
Rare
Sudden surge in global Weather
Domestic Pipeline failure
demand of LNG
Minor Intermediate Major
Impact
RISK ANALYSIS
37. Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation:
On stock’s price for the given upside & downside
risks associated with key forecasts:
Capacity utilization: varied from 90% to 100%.
JCC Index: varied from $ 80 to $ 110 per mmbtu.
In all possible circumstances, stock’s price moves
with:
Mean: INR 225.96
Standard deviation: INR 10.84
RISK ANALYSIS
39. Data & Charts
Company Competition Risks DCF Model Fin. Statements
FY 11 results Upcoming competitors Montecarlo Simulation Sensitivity Analysis Balance Sheet
Coal as a substitute in Free cash Flow to the
Q2 FY 12 Results Income Statement
power sector Firm
Naphtha & Fuel Oil as a
In the stock market LNG Pricing Annual Capex
substitute in Fertilizer
Petrol & Diesel as a
Shareholding Pattern Annual Revenue
substitute in CGD
Equity Structure
Disclosure: Sources for all data & charts are: Capitaline database, CMIE databse, News sources, Student research
DATA & CHARTS
40. FY 11 results
(in INR crores) 11-Mar 12-Mar (in INR crores) 11-Mar
SOURCES OF FUNDS : INCOME :
Share Capital 750 750 Sales Turnover 13,197.29
Reserves Total 1,930.16 1,484.88 Excise Duty 0
Total Shareholders Funds 2,680.16 2,234.88 Net Sales 13,197.29
Secured Loans 3,035.57 2,299.77 Other Income 67.95
Unsecured Loans 180.56 200.04
Stock Adjustments 0
Total Debt 3,216.13 2,499.81
Total Liabilities 5,896.29 4,734.69 Total Income 13,265.24
APPLICATION OF FUNDS : EXPENDITURE :
Gross Block 3,553.73 3,549.51 Raw Materials 11,801.20
Less : Accumulated Depreciation 851.29 666.65 Power & Fuel Cost 65.09
Net Block 2,702.44 2,882.86 Employee Cost 28.5
Capital Work in Progress 2,202.87 1,318.36 Other Manufacturing Expenses 14.94
Investments 1,164.88 538.62 Selling and Administration Expenses 43.73
Current Assets, Loans & Advances Miscellaneous Expenses 27.51
Inventories 247.98 222.26 Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised 0
Sundry Debtors 847.17 503.48 Total Expenditure 11,980.97
Cash and Bank 154.02 340.5 Operating Profit 1,284.27
Loans and Advances 138.29 155.36 Interest 193.17
Total Current Assets 1,387.46 1,221.60 Gross Profit 1,091.10
Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions Depreciation 184.68
Current Liabilities 1,034.81 744.87
Provisions 178.55 155.68
Profit Before Tax 906.42
Total Current Liabilities 1,213.36 900.55 Tax 265
Net Current Assets 174.1 321.05 Fringe Benefit tax 0
Deferred Tax Assets 1.4 0.9 Deferred Tax 21.8
Deferred Tax Liability 349.4 327.1 Reported Net Profit 619.62
Net Deferred Tax -348 -326.2
Total Assets 5,896.29 4,734.69
DATA & CHARTS
41. Q2 FY 12 Results
(in INR crores) 11-Sep 10-Sep
Gross Sales 5,366.87 3,057.72
Excise Duty 0 0
Net Sales 5,366.87 3,057.72
Other Operating Income 0 0
Other Income 20.11 18.59
Total Income 5,386.98 3,076.31
Total Expenditure 4,918.52 2,786.10
PBIDT 468.46 290.21
Interest 45.83 49.48
PBDT 422.63 240.73
Depreciation 46.3 46.61
Tax 115 55
Deferred Tax 1 8
Reported Profit After Tax 260.33 131.12
DATA & CHARTS
42. In the stock market
(in INR Crs)
Latest Data as on 04-Nov-2011
Latest Equity (Rs in Crs) 750
Latest Reserve (Rs in Crs) 1,930.16
Latest Book Value(Unit Curr.) 35.74
Latest EPS(Unit Curr.) 11.92
Latest Market Price(Unit Curr.) as
170.45
on 4/Nov/2011
Latest P/E Ratio 14.3
52 Week High(Unit Curr.) 185.85
52 Week Low(Unit Curr.) 105.1
Market Capitalisation (Rs in Crs) 12,783.75
Stock Exchange BSE
Dividend Yield % 1.17
DATA & CHARTS
43. Shareholding Pattern
Ownership Pattern as on 30-09-2011 % Share Holding Fund No of Shares
Foreign (Promoter & Group) 0 DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund 304972
Indian (Promoter & Group) 50 Goldman Sachs Mutual Fund 10247
Total of Promoter 50 IDFC Mutual Fund 254606
Non Promoter (Institution) 22.6554 Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund 204571
Non Promoter (Non-Institution) 27.3447 L&T Mutual Fund 163490
Total Non Promoter 50.0001 LIC NOMURA Mutual Fund 89800
Total Promoter & Non Promoter 100.0001 Sundaram Mutual Fund 13479231
DATA & CHARTS
44. Equity Structure
BPCL
12%
Entities Holdings
BPCL 12.50%
PUBLIC
35% GAIL GAIL 12.50%
12% IOC 12.50%
ONGC 12.50%
GDF SUEZ 10.00%
ADB 5.20%
IOC PUBLIC 34.80%
13%
ADB
5%
GDF SUEZ ONGC
10% 13%
DATA & CHARTS
45. Upcoming competitors
in MMTPA Upcoming LNG Projects
Projects Owners FY12 FY15 FY16 FY18 FY20
Dahej PLL 10 5 2.5
Hazira Shell 3.5 1.5
Kochi PLL 5 2.5
Dabhol RGPPL 5
East Coast PLL 5
Mudra Adani 5
Ennore IOCL 5
West Coast 2.5
Pipavav BG group 5
Jamnagar RIL 5
TAPI 11
SAGE 9
DATA & CHARTS
46. LNG Pricing
Y = 22.695 + 0.719*X 44 monthly data point from jan-08 to Aug-2011
Rs/mmtpa(cr)
JCCindex Spot mkt Dahej Kochi
Long term SPA Short term SPA Long term SPA
FY 12 95.3 3283.2 1839.6 2830.3 3283.2
FY 13 85.2 2937.1 2100.5 2532.0 2937.1
FY 14 86.4 2975.7 2452.5 2565.3 2975.7
FY 15 87.0 2998.7 2574.7 2585.1 2998.7
FY 16 87.7 2983.2 2571.7 2571.7 2983.2
FY 17 88.3 2996.2 2608.1 2582.9 2996.2
FY 18 89.2 3009.3 2645.0 2594.2 3009.3
FY 19 90.2 3022.4 2682.4 2605.5 3022.4
FY 20 91.3 3035.6 2720.3 2616.9 3035.6
DATA & CHARTS
47. Montecarlo Simulation
Values
Mean 225.96
St. Dev. 10.84
Mean St. Error 0.15
Median 226.2
Minimum 204.28
First Quartile 220.4
Third Quartile 231.83
Maximum 247.44
DATA & CHARTS
48. Coal as a substitute in power sector
Cost per unit electricity produced
units
Domestic Project Imported coal Project Cost per unit of electricity produced from new gas based Power Plant
from new coal based power plant Variable Cost:
Variable Cost:
Coal-Pithead Coal-Within 1000 Km Imported coal Fuel Price
Fuel Price LNG FOB $/MMBTU 10
Landed price of coal INR/M T 4200 4200 6000 Transportation charges $/MMBTU 0
Transportation charges INR/M T 0 1295 1295 Price of natural gas $/MMBTU 10
Total cost INR/M T 4200 5495 7295
Price of coal INR/Kg 4.2 5.495 7.295 Fuel required
Coal required
Station heat rate 2500 2500 2450
Station heat rate Kcal/Kwh 1900
GCV of coal
Kcal/Kwh
Kcal/Kg 4200 4200 6665 GCV of coal Kcal/Kg 14200
Aux consumtion % of output 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% Aux consumtion % of output 3%
Net coal required Kg 0.66 0.66 0.41 Natural gas required Kg 0.14
Variable cost per unit(KWHr) 2.76 3.61 2.96
Variable cost per unit(KWHr) 3.30
Fixed Cost:
Cost for 1 MW installation
Cpaex INR mn 50 50 50 Fixed Cost:
Debt INR mn 35 35 35 Cost for 1 MW installation
Equity INR mn 15 15 15 Cpaex INR mn 40
Apportioned cost
Depreciation INR mn 1.8 1.8 1.8 Debt INR mn 28
Interest
O&M
INR mn 3.5
0.95
3.5
0.95
3.5
0.95
Equity INR mn 12
Plant load factor
INR mn
0.8 0.8 0.8 Apportioned cost
Fixed cost per unit(KWHr) 0.89 0.89 0.89 Depreciation INR mn 1.4
Total Cost 3.65 4.5 3.85 Interest INR mn 2.8
O&M INR mn 0.60
Plant load factor 90%
Scenario Analysis Domestic Project Imported Fixed cost per unit(KWHr) 0.61
at different Coal Prices Pithead Within 1000 Km coal Project
Landed price of coal (INR/MT) 3500 3500 4500 Total cost per unit (INR/KWHr) 3.91
Total cost per unit (INR/KWHr) 3.66 4.05 3.25
Landed price of coal (INR/MT) 3804 3804 5612 Electricity cost per unit at differerent LNG FOB Prices
Total cost per unit (INR/KWHr) 3.9 4.25 3.7 LNG FOB ($/mmbtu) 7 10 16
Landed price of coal (INR/MT) 4200 4200 6000 Total cost per unit (INR/KWHr) 2.92 3.91 5.89
Total cost per unit (INR/KWHr) 4.22 4.51 3.85
DATA & CHARTS
49. Naphtha & Fuel Oil as a substitute in Fertilizer
Feed and Power cost per MT of Ureas using different fuels
Natural Gas Fuel Oil Naphtha
Fuel Price
$/barrel 120
$/MMBTU 16
$/Mt 857.76 1100
Specific Energy Consumption(Urea)
GJ/Mt 20.9 31.3 24.3
Gross calorific Value(fuel)
Kcal/'000 cm 10000
Kcal/Kg 10440 10500
Gj/Mmbtu 1.046
Gj/Mt 43.68 43.93
Feed & Power cost ($/mt of Urea) 319.69 614.63 608.44
Feed & Power cost at different RLNG prices
RLNG Price($/mmbtu) 7 10 15 18
Feed & Power Cost($/mt of Urea) 139.87 199.81 299.71 359.66
DATA & CHARTS
50. Petrol & Diesel as a substitute in CGD
Average Mileage(Km/L or Km/Kg)
Cost Benefit Analysis for CGD Prices in Delhi
Diesel Petrol CNG
Bus 4 4.4 Petrol (INR/Litre) 67
Car 14 18 25 Diesel (INR/litre) 41
Auto 35 40 LNG (INR/Litre) 32
Average Cost(Rs/Km)
Bus 10.25 7.27
Car 2.93 3.72 1.28
Auto 1.91 0.8
Max Saving(INR/km) Savings/Km (%)
2.98 0.2905
2.44 0.6561
1.11 0.5821
DATA & CHARTS
51. Balance Sheet
(in INR crores) FY 11A FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Share Capital 750 750 750 750
Addition to Reserve 445 719 806 1234
Reserves Total 1930 2649 3455 4689
Total Shareholders Funds 2680 3399 4205 5439
Secured Loans 3036 4720 6449 7845
Unsecured Loans 181 0 0 0
Total Debt 3216 4720 6449 7845
Total Liabilities 5896 8119 10655 13284
APPLICATION OF FUNDS :
Gross Block 3554 3554 7754 7754
Less : Accumulated Depreciation 851 1085 1480 1875
Net Block 2702 2468 6273 5878
Capital Work in Progress 2203 2862 2984 3388
Investments 1165 2425 807 3117
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 248 441 574 725
Sundry Debtors 847 861 1135 1416
Cash and Bank 154 814 1048 1342
Loans and Advances 138 267 349 435
Total Current Assets 1387 2382 3106 3917
Current Liabilities 1035 1190 1577 1954
Provisions 179 296 386 486
Total Current Liabilities 1213 1486 1964 2441
Net Current Assets 174 896 1143 1476
Deferred Tax Assets 1 0 0 0
PBT 906 1346 1509 2310
Deferred Tax Liability 349 635 711 697
Net Deferred Tax -348 -635 -711 -697
Total Assets 5896 8017 10496 13163
DATA & CHARTS
52. Income Statement
(all financials are in INR crores) FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E
Revenue 20225 23974 36388 42519
Expenses
Raw material: FOB gas 18043 21387 32461 37931
Power & fuel costs 129 153 233 272
Employee costs 47 56 85 99
Other manuf costs 28 33 50 59
S&Admin exp 250 296 449 525
Misc 55 65 98 115
EBITDA 1674 1984 3012 3519
Depreciation 181 234 394 394
EBIT 1493 1750 2617 3125
Interest 147 241 307 381
EBT 1346 1509 2310 2744
Tax 444 498 762 906
PAT 902 1011 1548 1838
DATA & CHARTS
54. Annual Capex
FY 06A FY 07A FY 08A FY 09A FY 10A FY 11A FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 16E FY 17E
As % of project cost 8.1% 26.7% 42.2% 23.1%
Mobilisation advance 107 76 20 0
I
eI
EPC 0 377 964 1219
as
Ph
Int & fin 0 6 32 100
DAHEJ
Net capex 107 352 556 304
As % of project cost 5.3% 60.0% 34.7%
tty
Expense 53 600 347
Je
n
As % of project cost 8.1% 26.7% 42.2% 23.1%
sio
an
Expense 243 800 1265 692
p
Ex
As % of project cost 0.24% 0.23% 0.62% 11.47% 17.60% 19.63% 30% 20.2%
Mobilisation advance 10 76 195 94
KOCHI
II
&
Surveys/EPC 10 20 36 449 1037 1877
eI
as
Int & fin 0 2 34 120
Ph
Total 10 20 46 527 1266 2091 1260 849
EAST COAST
As % of project cost 1.09% 11.47% 17.60% 19.63% 30.00% 20.22%
Mobilisation advance
st
oa
Surveys/EPC
c
st
Int & fin
Ea
Total 45 475 729 813 1242 837
Annual CAPEX 117 372 602 832 1266 2144 2148 2471 1993 1504 1242 837
DATA & CHARTS
55. Annual Revenue
FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 16E FY 17E FY 18E FY 19E FY 20E
Installed Capacity mmtpa 10 10 12.5 15 15 15 15 15 15
Capacity Utilisation 100% 100% 90% 88% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cost: Gas sourcing
Long term GSPA mmtpa 7.5 7.5 8.4375 9.84375 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
DAHEJ
Short term GSPA mmtpa 1.5 1.5 1.6875 1.96875 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Spot mkt mmtpa 1 1 1.125 1.3125 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Gas Price
Long term GSPA Rs./mmtpa 1840 2100 2453 2575 2572 2608 2645 2682 2720
Short term GSPA Rs./mmtpa 2830 2532 2565 2585 2572 2583 2594 2606 2617
Spot mkt Rs./mmtpa 3283 2937 2976 2999 2983 2996 3009 3022 3036
Gas FOB 18043 19552 25022 30434 34718 35152 35593 36039 36492
Total 20225 21916 28048 34115 38917 39404 39898 40398 40905
Installed Capacity mmtpa 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Capacity Utilisation 13% 50% 50% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cost: Gas sourcing
Long term GSPA mmtpa 0.46875 1.875 1.875 2.8125 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
KOCHI
Short term, spot mmtpa 0.15625 0.625 0.625 0.9375 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Gas Price
Long term GSPA Rs./mmtpa 2937 2976 2999 2983 2996 3009 3022 3036
Short term, spot Rs./mmtpa 2937 2976 2999 2983 2996 3009 3022 3036
Gas FOB 1836 7439 7497 11187 14981 15046 15112 15178
Total 2058 8339 8404 12540 16793 16866 16940 17014
Installed Capacity mmtpa 5 5 5 5
Capacity Utilisation 50% 100% 100% 100%
Cost: Gas sourcing
EAST COAST
Long term GSPA mmtpa 1.875 3.75 3.75 3.75
Short term, spot mmtpa 0.625 1.25 1.25 1.25
Gas Price
Long term GSPA Rs./mmtpa 2996 3009 3022 3036
Short term, spot Rs./mmtpa 2996 3009 3022 3036
Gas FOB 7490 15046 15112 15178
Total 8396 16866 16940 17014
Annual Revenue 23974 36388 42519 51457 64594 73630 74278 74933
DATA & CHARTS
