1. 20 2555

2. (1)
•
– (Globalization Process)
–
–
–

3. (2)
–
2543
(Transition period)
– (Sensitive)

4. Real Per Capita GDP 1993-2011
Per Capita GDP (at constant prices)
Per Capita
GDP (at
constant
prices)

5. Per Capita GDP Growth 1994-2011
Per Capita GDP Growth (at constant prices)
Per Capita
GDP Growth
(at constant
prices)
-
-
-

6. •
(Import
Substitution Policy)
(Export-led Growth
Policy)
•
40

7. Trade to GDP ( constant price)

8. Potential Productivity Improvement
from Trade
• Efficiency Improvement: better utilization of
resources in the economy
• Technology Improvement: international
business is one of the mechanism lead to
technology transfers
• Economies of Scale: international trade allows
firms to realize benefits from scale buy
producing at a larger scale (moving down the
long-run marginal cost curve)

9. • (Host
Country): Inflows of FDI
–
• (Home
Country): Outflows of FDI
–

10. Net export
Investment
Government spending
Consumption
-

11. •
– Mode 4
– ( :
Professional services)
•
–
•

12. Measuring Comparative Advantage
• Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)
[EXki/TEXi] / [EXkw/TEXw]
• Boston Model
• Diamond Model
• Constant Market Share (CMS)
– World Effect (Global effects)
– Market Effect (Regional/Country effects)
– Product effect
– Competitiveness effect

13. Boston’s Competitiveness Model
Export
Share High Share High Share
Low Growth High Growth
Low Share Low Share
Low Growth High Growth
Export
Growth

14. 2012
GDP per Scores Ranking
Capita(US$)
Hong Kong 37,351 100 1
USA 37,691 97.755 2
Singapore 33,529 95.923 4
Malaysia 5,364 84.217 14
China 2,639 75.769 23
Japan 39,578 71.354 27
Thailand 2,698 69.001 30
India 837 63.596 35
Indonesia 1,206 59.499 42
Philippines 1,410 59.271 43

15. 2004-2012
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012
USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Singapore 2 3 3 2 2 3 3
Hong Kong 3 2 2 3 3 1 1
China 6 8 5 4 4 6 6
Malaysia 4 6 6 5 5 4 4
Japan 5 4 4 6 6 7 7
Thailand 7 5 8 9 7 8 8
India 8 9 7 7 8 9 9
South Korea 9 7 9 8 9 5 5
Philippines 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
Indonesia 11 11 11 11 11 10 10

18. •
•
•
•

19. •
–
–
• –

20. %
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing
economies
: (IMF)
: 2010

21. C u rre n t A c c o u n t B a la n c e s , U S $ B n
900
D e ve lo p in g A s ia + N IE s
600
Japan 300
0
E u ro p e a n U n io n
-3 0 0
-6 0 0
U n ite d S ta te s
-9 0 0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
: (IMF)
: 2010

22. •
(Public Debt)
–
–
• (Wealth)
(Income) –

23. G- Advanced G- Emerging
Low Income
: Fiscal Affair Department Data, IMF

24. • 2007
607
12.5 GDP Roach, D. 2007)
•
–
109% 1980
316% 2005 –
140

25. • The Liquidity Pyramid – Global liquidity by
source of Claim (2009)
976% of 81% of
Derivatives Liquidity
World
GDP
145% of Securitize 12% of
World d Debt Liquidity
GDP
80% of Bank 6% of
World Loans Liquidity
Powe
GDP
7% of r 1% of
Mone
World y Liquidity
GDP

26. •
(spot, forward, and swaps) 3.2
• (OTC)
2.1
(BIS 2007)
•
(World trade volume) 12

27. •
•
•

28. •
•

29. •
•

30. •
•
•

31. •

32. •
•
•

33. Chart 14
Number of physical RTAs that entered into force since 2000
18 160
16
140
14
120
12
100
Cumulative number
Number per year
10
80
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: WTO Secretariat.

34. ASEAN Economic
Integration
Chart II.2
ASEAN ‘Noodle Bowl’
Pakistan China Japan
SAFTA India APTA
Nepal
Bhutan Bangladesh Rep. Korea
Afghanistan Sri Lanka
Maldives
Laos
Chinese
Indonesia Taipei
Bahrain
Qatar THAILAND
Cambodia Hong Kong,
Jordan Myanmar China
BIMSTEC
Macao, China
Philippines
ASEAN
(AFTA, AEC) Viet Nam
Ukraine Malaysia
EFTA Singapore
EU Brunei
TRANS-PACIFIC
TPP SEP Chile Peru
Australia
New Zealand US
Panama Mexico Canada NAFTA
Bloc-to-bloc or bloc-to-country Country-to-country Under negotiation
SAFTA = South Asian Free Trade Agreement; APTA = Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (previously known as Bangkok
Agreement, negotiated under UN-ESCAP); BIMSTEC = Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and
Economic Cooperation (under negotiation); AFTA = ASEAN Free Trade Area; AEC = ASEAN Economic Community
(under negotiation); Trans-Pacific SEP = Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement; NAFTA = North
American Free Trade Agreement; TPP = Trans-Pacific Partnership (under negotiation)
Source: Data from Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements Database (APTIAD, www.unescap.org/tid/aptiad/),
[July 2011]. Graphic adapted from an original by Mia Mikic. See Mikic, Mia (2009), ASEAN and Trade
Integration, UN ESCAP Staff Working Paper 01/09, 8 April. Some agreements are not included.

35. AEC 2015:
•
(Single market and production base)
•
(Improved regional
competitiveness)
•
(Regional
economic development equity
•

36. 24 25 26 27 28
58 58 58 58 58
( )
60 1 .3 1 .3 1 .0 1 .0 2 .4
0 2 5 8 0
65 7.3 8.3 1 .5 1 .1 1 .2
0 3 5
80 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.9 3.8

37. •
•
•
•
•

38. CO2

39. ?
39

40. ?
Ethan Biode
ol) isel)
1. 3.
2. 4.
5.

41. Supply Demand)
)
•
•
•
•
41
Yield)
•

42. 


44. -
24
58 25
50 25 58 26 58 27 50
6.
51 6 . 4 6 . 8 7 . 5 7 . 6
60 89 06 06
(
)
1- 6 .
5 68 6.
72 6.
71 6.
38 6.
29
5(
9
)
60 1.
04 1.
08 1.
42 2.
12 2.
27
( )
72 73 75 77 na

45. •
•
•

46. •
•
•

47. •
• FTA
• ACFTA

48. TFP
-
-
-
-
-

50. 50

51. •
•
• Social safety
net

52. 52

53. •
•
•
(Physical Infrastructure) Soft
Infrastructure
ICT
•

54. •
•
FDI
•

55. •
• JTEPA