The research agenda of the eGov area will be discussed in this session, focusing on innovative ideas and directions for its advancement from the eGov 2.0 to a new eGov 3.0 paradigm. Yannis Charalabidis, University of the Aegean, Greece

1. Keynote Speech
Policy Modelling for Decision Support
in the Public Sector
Yannis Charalabidis
University of the Aegean
Twitter: @yannisc
IFIP eGOV 2017 Conference, St Petersburg

2. Part 1 : On Introductions …

3. The Greek Digital Governance Research
Centre
A collaborative, multi-disciplinary team
15 researchers, 150 members, 30 international experts
Doing research and education projects in gov 1.0, 2.0, 3.0
More than 100 alumni in electronic government MSc
programme
More than 500 participants in Samos Summit organisation

4. Your keynote speaker
Electrical engineer, National Technical University of Athens
PhD in complex information systems, NTUA
8 years a researcher in RTD projects for businesses and
governments
8 years in the software industry (Greece, Netherlands,
Germany, Poland). Managing director of Baan-Singular ERP
company.
Already 8 years at University of the Aegean, teaching and
researching on eGovernance
Looking for the next 8 years …
My aim for the day: to give you food for thought.

5. PART 2 – On problems …

6. Rising number of
tipping points,
unpredictable “black
swan” events: (financial
and economic crisis;
terrorist attacks, climate
change)
Can’t be adequately
addressed by traditional
econometric models
Politicians are not used
to evidence-based
decisions
Explosion in authorship,
co-creation and
collaboration
– Mass collaboration and
participation
– Open data, open innovation
models
– Government 2.0
– More intelligence and more
stupidity, more signal and
more noise
The problem: policy-making and governance in
a complex world

7. Society: increasingly
interconnected, flexible,
fast-evolving,
unpredictable
Governance: often silos-
based, linear, obscure,
hierarchical, over-
simplified
Policies, Disciplines and
Actors are isolated
The Problem:
Gap between Society and Governance
Policies Health R&D Social
Disciplines Economics Mathematics ICT
Actors Government Citizens Industry

8. PART 3 – On solutions
"The problems that we have created cannot be
solved
at the level of thinking
that created them"
(Albert Einstein)
So ?

9. More people involved (the collaborative governance curve)
More accurate and
analytical,
modeling and
simulation tools
(the AI curve)
More data available (the big data curve)
2020
2010

10. Low Openness & Transparency : extreme 0
High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1
extreme 1
Low Integration of Policy Intelligence
extreme 0
Self-Service
Governance
Ancient Greek
Governance
Privatised
Governance
Leviathan
Governance
High Integration of Policy Intelligence

11. Policy Modelling : A definition
Policy modelling
refers to
the analysis of public policy, along its conception, deliberation and
implementation
the construction of models that explain the regulating rules and
underlying phenomena
the simulation of past, present or future states of the society,
relevant to the public policy in study
in order to assist evidence – based decision making for citizens and
administrations

12. Today’s policy modeling:
Human effort based
Using mainly econometric models and overlooking human
behaviour
Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal,
black-box, fragmented and single-purpose
Progress in modeling software has not matched advances
in computing power.
Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from
qualitative and quantitative data is costly.

13. Integrated, composable and reusable models
– models composability and interoperability (between software and
modelling methods) to build on existing models
– Short term research: definition of procedures for model composition and
repositories
– Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID
Collaborative modelling
– Intuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to
take part in transparent formal modelling at large scale
– Short term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfaces
– Long-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework
Easy access to information and knowledge creation
– methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building
and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain
system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding

14. Model validation
– Reliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation.
A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context)
and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or
context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are
required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software
validation )
– Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniques
– Long-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence
incorporated in validation systems
Interactive simulation
– It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data
analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional
batch/post processing cycle.
– Short-term: Usability
– Long-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering

15. Current Types of Modelling and Simulation
From “Features and Added Value of Simulation Models Using Different Modelling Approaches Supporting Policy-Making: A
Comparative Analysis’, by Dragana Majstorovic, Maria A. Wimmer, Roy Lay-Yee, Peter Davis and Petra Ahrweiler

16. The idea of mega-modelling and simulation
Usually, up to now, model construction is a manual process
Then, model execution is done via computer means
With mega-modelling approaches:
– Out of the (big) initial data, we identify the main parameters that govern
the problem space. Sometimes identification is based on computers,
too.
– We generate millions, or billions of different models (worlds), via
computing power
– Then, we run all these different simulations, or “worlds”, consuming
immense computing power
– Model validation includes (computerized) comparison and selection of
the most successful “worlds”
– The approach can be applied in equation-based or agent-based
simulations

17. An architecture for policy (mega) modelling

18. Mega - ModellingBig Data Mining Model Design & Validation Big Data SimulationParameters Space Hybrid Modelling
An broad workflow for big-data based, mega-
modelling in policy making

19. An more detailed workflow for big-data based,
mega-modelling in policy making
Definition of case
/ problem
Understanding of
of impacting
policy domains
Data Sources
Selection
Data Acquisition
and Preparation
Data Mining
Data
Understanding
Model Inception
Parameter’s
Space
Exploration
Models
Integration
Behavioral Data
Integration
Data Mining for
Validation
Big Data
Simulation
Execution
Big Data
Experimentation
Results
Visualisation
Knowledge
Consolidation

20. PART 4: On Gov 3.0
2000 2010 2020
GOV 1.0
GOV 2.0
GOV 3.0

21. The paradigm shift for Gov 3.0
GOV 1.0 GOV 2.0 GOV 3.0
Main Goal Better Services Openness &
Collaboration
Societal problem solving,
citizen well being,
optimization of resources
Main Method Connected
Governance
Open and
Collaborative
Governance
Smart Governance
Usual Application Level National National & Local Local to International
Key Tool Portal Social Media Ubiquitous Smart Services
/ Devices / Apps
Key Obstacle / Risk Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector Mentality
Key ICT area Infrastructures &
Organisation
People & Data Machine Intelligence & IoT
Most needed discipline,
beyond ICT
Management Sociology Everything

22. The paradigm shift for Gov 3.0
GOV 1.0 GOV 2.0 GOV 3.0
Main Goal Better Services Openness &
Collaboration
Societal problem solving,
citizen well being,
optimization of resources
Main Method Connected
Governance
Open and
Collaborative
Governance
Smart Governance
Usual Application Level National National & Local Local to International
Key Tool Portal Social Media Ubiquitous Smart Services
/ Devices / Apps
Key Obstacle / Risk Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector Mentality
Key ICT area Infrastructures &
Organisation
People & Data Machine Intelligence & IoT
Most needed discipline,
beyond ICT
Management Sociology Everything

23. The paradigm shift for Gov 3.0
GOV 1.0 GOV 2.0 GOV 3.0
Main Goal Better Services Openness &
Collaboration
Societal problem solving,
citizen well being,
optimization of resources
Main Method Connected
Governance
Open and
Collaborative
Governance
Smart Governance
Usual Application Level National National & Local Local to International
Key Tool Portal Social Media Ubiquitous Smart Services
/ Devices / Apps
Key Obstacle / Risk Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector
Mentality
Public Sector Mentality
Key ICT area Infrastructures &
Organisation
People & Data Models, AI, IoT
Most needed discipline,
beyond ICT
Management Sociology Everything

24. The definition of Government 3.0
Government 3.0 refers to
the utilization of Information and
Communication Technologies and neighboring
scientific and technological domains,
towards societal problems solving, resource
optimization and citizen well-being,
through civic and enterprise collaboration at
local and international level
(The Samos 2015 Summit definition)

25. What is coming ? (according to Korean
Government)

26. 7+1 things to expect from Gov 3.0
Smart Government / Smart City integrated solutions
Societal problem solving based on internet awareness platforms,
voluntarism
New, disruptive services for societies and businesses
Any extremely efficient solution
Applications deeply rooted in culture
Internet of Things applications
Semi-automated / Crowdsourcing-based decision making
A re-thinking of Gov 1.0 and Gov 2.0 infrastructures and services,
with the Gov 3.0 principles

27. PART 5: Call for action

28. AI & IOT in Government
Call for Papers
Government Information Quarterly (Elsever, Impact Factor 5,81)
Special Issue on IoT and AI for Smart Government
Key Dates
Paper submissions: November 30, 2017
Complete first round of review: February 29, 2018
Authors submit second round: May 31, 2018
Complete second round of review (with
Accept/Reject decision): August 31, 2018
Special Issue ready for submission to GIQ:
November 30, 2018
Special Issue Guest Editors:
Atreyi Kankanhalli, National University of
Singapore, Singapore.
Yannis Charalabidis, University of the
Aegean, Greece.
Yogesh K. Dwivedi, Swansea University, UK.
Sehl Mellouli, Laval University, Canada.

29. The Gov 3.0 Project
An ERASMUS+ European Project, the only in its domain
Starting 1/11/2017 for a duration of 3 years
It’s main goals:
– To develop the Gov 3.0 training curriculum for pre-graduate and post-
graduate studies in European Union
– To hold a yearly Summer School on Gov 3.0
– To develop the research roadmap for Government 3.0
– To develop a MOOC for ICT-enabled Governance
– To construct a large project, with high impact in ICT-enabled governance in
the years to come

30. The Gov 3.0 Project
Partnership
– University of the Aegean / Greek DGRC (coordinator)
– Agder University
– German National E-government Centre
– Danube University Krems
– United Nations University
– PWC
– Singular Cyprus
– Lisbon Council
The consortium will seek expansion, with one interested
organisation in every country, so stay tuned …

31. Keynote Speech
Policy Modelling for Decision Support
in the Public Sector
Yannis Charalabidis
University of the Aegean
Twitter: @yannisc
IFIP eGOV 2017 Conference, St Petersburg