The global comemrcial vehicle research program at Frost & Sullivan presents a brief summary of its comprehensive research and analysis focused on the global bus rapid systems market. Please connect with us for any insights or if you have any questions/comments

1. Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems
Market
Market to Double Through Growth in Demand From New Regions and
Advanced BRT Solutions
Global
NA5E-18
March 2012

2. Research Team
Analyst Analyst
Bharani Lakshminarasimhan Ryan Carmichael
Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+91 44 66814122 +1.416.490.1274
bharanil@frost.com ryan.carmichael@frost.com
Program Director Strategic Review Committee Leader
Sandeep Kar Sarwant Singh
Global Director, Automotive & Transportation Partner, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.7796 +44 207 915 7843
sandeep.kar@frost.com sarwant.singh@frost.com
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3. Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 6
Research Methodology, Geographical Scope and Partial List of Companies Interviewed 20
BRT Systems Market – Overview and Definition 26
Bus Rapid Transit Systems – Global Best Practices Comparative Analysis 30
a. BRT Standard 32
b. BRT Bus Standard 33
c. BRT Bus Powertrain Standard 34
d. Global BRT Systems-Hot Spot Analysis 35
e. Comparative Analysis of Top 3 BRTs 37
f. Case Study-Guangzhou BRT 39
Market & Technology Dynamics for BRT systems 41
a. Market Drivers and Restraints 42
b. Product Life Cycle Analysis of BRT Systems 47
c. Global BRT Vehicle Market—Value Chain Analysis 50
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4. Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Total Market Measurements 51
a. Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast 52
b. Global BRT Vehicle Powertrain Penetration Forecast 54
c. Global BRT Vehicle – Bus Length Configuration Forecast 56
d. Global BRT Vehicle OEM Unit Shipments Forecast- Region Wise 57
Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market– Regional Profiles 59
a. Latin America 60
b. China 68
c. India 75
d. Europe 84
e. North America 92
f. Rest of World 99
BRT Systems – Need Evaluation and Analysis 108
a. Mega Trends Influencing the BRT Market 109
b. Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis 111
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5. Contents
Section Slide Numbers
BRT systems – Design, Development and Implementation process 114
a. BRT Evolution 115
b. BRT System Design and Implementation 116
c. Service Design 118
d. Operational Model 119
e. BRT Cost Structure 120
f. BRT Financing Models 121
g. Bus OEMs Value Proposition in BRT 122
h. Integrated Mobility 123
BRT Vehicle Analysis 125
Strategic Recommendations and Conclusion 133
a. Key Research Findings 134
b. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 135
Appendix 137
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6. Executive Summary
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7. Executive Summary—Key Findings
Globally Over 100 BRT Lines are currently operational or under various stages of
1 implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle
purchase and replacement demand as well.
2 The global BRT vehicle market is set to reach over 7800 units by 2018. Latin America
and China alone to account for over 58 per cent of the total market.
Volvo to retain global leadership with over 30 per cent global market share by 2018.
3
Daimler emerging top competitor with 19 per cent share by 2018.
4 Diesel to remain dominant powertrain system over the forecast period. Alternative
fuel powertrain penetration is set to triple and reach over 20 per cent by 2018.
5 By 2018 18-24m, low-floor, telematics enabled buses to feature in most BRT lines
across the world.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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8. Executive Summary—BRT Evolution : Informal Services to Full BRT – Bus Rapid Transit is
Now Increasingly Being Viewed as a Viable and Effective Mode of Mass Transit in Urban Centers
in Both Developed and Developing World
Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Evolution (Global), 2011
Full BRT
BRT Lite
• Integrated
Busways Routes
• Segregated (Feeder
Conventional bus ways routes
• Pre-board fare connecting the
Services central trunk
• Segregated collection and
verification line)
Informal Bus Ways • Closed, high
Services • On-Board Fare • On-Board • Higher Quality quality
Collection fare Stations Stations
• Poor Customer collection • Clean vehicle • Flexible
Service • Standard Technology frequencies
• Non Regulated • •
• Often vehicles and Open BRT Variable
Operators system with no services(All
subsidized stations
• Taxi Like cap on Stop and
operations
Services operators Express)
Evolution of BRT Services
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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9. Executive Summary—Global BRT Systems Hot Spot Analysis: Globally
Over 100 BRT Lines are Currently Operational or Under Different Stages of Implementation
Global BRT Systems Market : Hot Spot Analysis (Global), 2011-2018
North America
China-India
Existing BRT with expansion
plans
New BRT systems in the Latin America
planning phase
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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10. Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research for Overall Public
Experience in Relation to Transport Mode
Strong Potential for BRTs in Many Major Urban Centers in Asia and Europe
Journey Experience Index (JEI) tends to be higher among cities with a higher 1 Total
share of individual transport 2 New York
100% Car 3 Seattle
focused 4 Los Angeles
90% 15 cities 5 San Francisco
6 Mexico City
Share Individual Transport
4
80% 21 7 Rio de Janeiro
13
3
8 Copenhagen
70% 9 London
24 23 10 Paris
20
60% 11 11 Frankfurt
5
17 12 Moscow
1 14
50% 2 13 Dubai
16 6 Public transport 14 Cairo
8 focused cities
40% 22 15 Johannesburg
18 10 16 Beijing
7
30%
9 12 17 Shanghai
19 18 Seoul
20% 19 Tokyo
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20 New Delhi
21 Kuala Lumpur
Share Public Transport
n=7,185; Q7: Mode of transport used, Q34: Indexed (Bubble Size = JEI (Journey Experience Index)) 22 Singapore
23 Jakarta
JEI for car focused cities is higher than public transport focused cities
24 Sydney
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11. Executive Summary—Voice of Customer Research For BRT as a Solution
Overcrowding, Traffic and Speed Cited as 3 Most Frustrating Aspects of Public
Transit
1 out of 2 individual and 2 of 3 public transport users are frustrated with the traffic situation. But differences exist by region:
In Americas a significant lower individual transport frustration level can be seen, whereas in APAC the difference between
the two modes is the smallest.
Frustration by mode is for both primarily caused by one reason: traffic congestions in individual and overcrowding in public
transport
Reasons for Frustration Reasons for Frustration
Individual Transport Public Transport
Overcrowding Traffic Speed Other No frustrations
Traffic Speed Other No frustrations
13%
14%
12% 14% 14% 11%
11%
11% 4% 12% 9% 13%
10% 12% 11%
4% 9% 4% 13%
3% 42%
32% 30% 31% 29% 37%
22% 24%
32% 26%
42% 37% 37%
53% 56%
65%
Total Americas EMEA APAC Total Americas EMEA APAC
Q28: What,, if anything, was the most frustrating or annoying part of this trip?
Concerns over overcrowding, traffic and speed in urban transportation could be overcome by an efficient BRT system.
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12. Executive Summary—Comparison with Other Transit Solutions
BRT Emerging as a Sustainable Compared to Light Rail and Conventional Bus
Global BRT Systems Market : Transit Solutions- Comparative Analysis(Global), 2011
Light Rail BRT Conventional Bus
Efficiency - [5], [4.5], [3]
5
Ratings : [Light Rail], [BRT], [Conventional Bus]
4
Route Flexibility
[1], [4], [5] 3 Capital Expenditure
[1], [4.5], [5]
2
1
Environmental Footprint 0 Network (Distance)
[5], [4], [2] [2], [4], [5]
Passenger Information System
[5], [4.5], [2] Flexible Frequency
[5], [5], [2]
Total Ratings:
Light Rail – 34
Off Vehicle Fare Collection Journey experience
BRT – 39 [5], [4.5], [2]
[5], [4.5], [2]
Conventional Bus - 29
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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13. Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility
The 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd Capacity that BRT provides Can Bridge the Gap Between High
Capacity Upstream Urban Rail Systems and Low Capacity Downstream Transportation Options
• Subways and heavy metro systems are
Urban
available in city centers in urban areas.
Transportation
Urban • Operating capacities of 70,000-120,000
Puzzle
Rail
pphpd.
Ideal capacity of 10,000-
BRT 15,000 pphpd to bridge the
Conventional gap.
Bus Systems
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
• Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000
to 5,000 pphpd.
Bicycle
• Car sharing, bike sharing and other non-motorized transportation
Walking options emerge critical in delivering the last mile connectivity.
Passenger Per Hour Per Direction (pphpd) Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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14. Executive Summary—Global BRT Vehicle Unit Shipments Forecast
Latin America and China Alone Absorbed Over 3 Thousand BRT Vehicles in 2011; Indian,
North American and European Markets Growing at a Fast Pace
Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipment Forecast- Region Wise (Global), 2011 and 2018
Europe
800
North America 600
600 400
CAGR
2000 China
200 17.8 % 1500
400
CAGR 1000 CAGR
0
200 2011 2018
Unit Shipments
500
17 % 5.8 %
0 0
2011 2018 2011 2018
1500
India
CAGR
1000
Latin America 22.1 %
4000 500
3000
Rest of World
CAGR 0
1500
2000 2011 2018
6.9 %
1000
1000
0 CAGR
500
2011 2018
5.6 %
0
2011 2018
Base Year, End Year Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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15. Executive Summary—Global BRT Powertrain Penetration Forecast
Diesel to Remain Dominant Propulsion Fuel Over the Forecast Period Albeit With Shrinking
Demand as Alternative Fuel Powered BRTs Gain Rapid Proliferation
Global BRT Systems Market: Unit Shipments- Powertrain Mix (Global), 2011 and 2018
Altenate Fuel Diesel
4,000
2018 Regional Shares
7,874
3,000
14.9 %
4,341 20.4 %
6.8 % 2,000
85.1 %
26.0 % 8.0 %
79.6 %
1,000 13.0 %
93.2 %
74.0 % 92.0%
35.3 % 87.0 %
59.5 %
40.5 % 64.7 %
0
Latin North Europe China India Rest of
America America World
2011 2018
• Market for advanced powertarin technologies is expected to increase across the forecast period as
concerns over energy security and climate change emerge as key driving factors.
• North America, Europe and China emergeing as key growth markets for advanced powertrain
technologies. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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16. BRT Bus Built Analysis-Length Configuration: Mapping Bus Configurations with
Service Design is Critical; Long Articulated Buses Have Greater Acceptance in Trunk Service
Compared to Direct Service
Length Configuration BRT Applicability
Direct Service Trunk Service
Standard 12m
12 m
Articulated
18 m
Bi-articulated
24 m
High Low
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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17. BRT Standard: Segregated Bus Ways with Level Boarding Stations Considered Best Fit for
Efficient BRT Operations; Migration of Operation Model in China and India Towards Closed
System Compelling Bus OEMs to Focus on Product Competitiveness
Combination Global BRT Systems Market : BRT Standard Overview (Global), 2011-2018
Operations
Level Boarding
Open
Segregated
Feeder Service
Trunk and
Operation
Closed
Non Level Boarding
Partially Segregated
Direct Service
Operations
Public
Service Design Operational Model Bus ways Station Interface
Strong Trend Towards 2018 Moderate Trend Towards 2018 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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