Talk by Girsh Sant at launch event of Worldwatch Institute's State of the World 2009, Indian Edition produced by CEE

1. Indian Energy Trends:
The Climate and Development Challenge
Girish Sant, Prayas Energy group
Prayas Energy Group http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University 06/10/2009

2. Income x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity = Emissions
Rs. (Joules/Rs.) (Tons/Joules) = (Tons)
Industry Electricity
Transportation
Residential
Prayas Energy Group 2

3. Economy-wide Energy Intensity
Total Primary Energy Supply (Btu/$PPP 2000)
India’s energy intensity has been falling since the mid-nineties. Current
trends would imply continued decline in the near future.
Source: Energy Information Administration, USDOE
Prayas Energy Group 3

4. Economy Trends and Performance
Income x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity = Emissions
Industry Electricity
Transportation
Residential
Prayas Energy Group 4

5. Energy Intensity – Industry
Industrial growth (7% p.a between 2000 - 2005) has decoupled from its energy
consumption growth (3% p.a)
Specific Energy Consumption in GJ / ton
Type of 1990 1995 2000 2005 AAGR (1990-
Industry 2005)
Iron and 41.9 37.6 33.3 29.1 -2.41%
Steel
Cement 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 -1.10%
Ammonia 55.3 60.4 51.9 42.9 -1.67%
Aluminum 399.0 393.8 380.5 364.9 -0.59%
Pulp and 35.0 31.3 27.6 24.0 -2.48%
Paper
Cement industry is the most efficient in the world in terms of electricity use.
Source: India Energy Outlook, LBNL,, 2009
Prayas Energy Group 5

6. Industry Mitigation Opportunities
• Scale Best Available Technology penetration
• Small scale industries (1/3rd of output)
• BEE - Designated Consumers
• Electricity sector production and delivery
- Low plant efficiency (30% vs. best of 40%)
- High Transmission/Distribution losses (30%)
- Poor price signals to agriculture
Prayas Energy Group

7. Where do India’s Emissions Come From?
Income x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity = Emissions
Industry Electricity
Transportation
Residential
Prayas Energy Group 7

8. Modes of Transportation
• Buses and rail dominate motorized
transport
• Non-motorized modes of
transport(walking and bicycling)
meet more than a quarter of all trips
in major cities and greater than half
in small towns and rural areas.
• Despite high growth India has a
relatively low ownership of vehicles:
12 LDVs per 1000 persons.
Source: LBNL, 2009 Source: LBNL, 2009
Prayas Energy Group 8

9. Recent Policies and Mitigation opportunities
• JNNURM
– Development of Public transportation
– Road/traffic management infrastructure
• Improved urban design
• Vehicle Fuel Economy
Potential Co-benefits
– Reduce accident fatalities
– Reduce local pollution, congestion
Prayas Energy Group 9

10. Where do India’s Emissions Come From?
Income x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity = Emissions
Industry Electricity
Transportation
Residential
Prayas Energy Group 10

11. Residential Sector – Emissions Impact
Indian households have half the energy intensity of households with similar
income in Brazil and a third of that of a similar American household
• Low meat consumption patterns – Livestock sector contributes to 18% of the GHG
emissions.
• High Urban Density
– Smaller homes – less than 540 sq ft.
– Low commuting distances in the cities
• Electricity growth linked to income - Only 11 percent households consume more than
100 units in a month, average US household consumes 900 units a month.
• 5 percent of CO2 emissions from direct energy use
Mitigation:
• Providing all households with modern cooking fuels will have a negligible (<1 percent)
impact on emissions
• BEE – Standards and Labeling program for efficient appliances
Prayas Energy Group 11

12. Income x Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity = Emissions
Rs. (Joules/Rs.) (Tons/Joules) = (Tons)
Electricity
Prayas Energy Group 12

13. Carbon Intensity trends and Drivers
Electricity Sector
– Contributes to 35% of the GHG emissions in India
– Power stations emitted 943 grams of CO2 per kWh of electricity produced in
2005 – more than 50% higher than the average for the world.
Mitigation policies and opportunities in the Electricity Sector:
– Renovation and Modernization programs of coal plants
– Super-critical technology
– Renewable energy penetration – Currently ,9.7% of the total installed capacity
(does not include large hydro)
– Renewable Purchase Obligations
– Natural Gas – National Exploration and Licensing Policy
Prayas Energy Group 13

14. National Action Plan on Climate Change
While India is on a low energy and carbon path compared countries
like US and China, the current BAU path for growth is not sustainable
and needs a thorough review
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
• National Solar Mission
• National Mission for a ‘Green India’
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
• National Water Mission
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
• National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate
Change
Prayas Energy Group 14

15. Action possible PMC/PCMC
• Municipal Corporation’s procurement of five star appliances
• Creation of Research networks for identifying and facilitating
knowledge generation and implementation of green and pro
people actions/agenda
• Reducing the Octroi of all five star appliances coming into the
City
• Transportation
– Increasing the efficiency of Public Transport
– Increasing the Taxes on Private vehicles (use money for
public transport)
• Incentives efficient Commercial Complexes / installations.
– Reduced taxes for Energy Conservation Building Codes
compliant Commercial buildings. (however this will require
some coordination and additional paper work)
Prayas Energy Group 15

16. Thank you..
girish@prayaspune.org
www.prayaspune.org/peg
Prayas Energy Group 16