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DISCUSSION PAPER ON MIDDLE EAST OPPORTUNITIES
Global private equity firms have historically ignored the region with the MENA region only accounting for 0.1% of the US$ 2.3 trillion* PE industry PRIVATE EQUITY FUND DISTRIBUTION Americas 72.1% Europe 22.2% Asia 4.3% Oceana 0.7% South Asia  0.3% MENA  0.1% Africa  0.2% *US$ 400 billion of the global PE industry, including leverage represents a US$ 2 trillion in potential  buying power Source: Thomson One Banker, Fortune Magazine Regional PE industry as a % of total PE industry of US$ 2.2 trillion
MENA GDP OVERVIEW ,[object Object],[object Object],Comments Real GDP Growth Average 2007 % Nominal GDP US$ Billion 2007 Qatar Saudi Arabia Egypt Bahrain Oman UAE Kuwait Morocco Jordan Lebanon Population Size
MENA REGION POSITIVE OUTLOOK ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
POPULATION GROWTH ,[object Object],[object Object],ECONOMIC GROWTH ,[object Object],ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ,[object Object],COMPARATIVE INDUSTRIAL ADVANTAGE ,[object Object],DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ,[object Object],CHRONIC UNDER-INVESTMENT ,[object Object],FACTORS DRIVING REQUIREMENT FOR INVESTMENT
THE INVESTMENT DRIVERS OF  MIDDLE EAST   REGION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS ,[object Object],[object Object],SECTOR LIBERALIZATION & PRIVATIZATION REGULATORY RESTRUCTURING ,[object Object],[object Object]
Gradual liberalization of regulations are conducive to economic growth, yet more efforts are required to create a favorable environment FAVOURABLE REGULATIONS IN MENA REGION FOREIGN OWNERSHIP CUSTOMS  CLEARANCE INTELECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LABOR  LAWS  DISPUTE SETTLEMENT FDI INFLOW Unfavorable Favorable Gradual liberalization of regulations and the impact on Economy
UAE Oman Qatar Bahrain Saudi Jordan Tunisia Morocco Lebanon Yemen Algeria Egypt Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon OPENNESS OF CUSTOMS REGIME EFFICIENCY OF LEGAL FRAMEWORKS Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon ORGANIZED EFFORTS TO IMPROVE  COMPETITIVENESS 1= WEAK 7= STRONG MENA REGION –INVESTMENT INDICATORS UAE attracted 58% of all regional FDI projects
There are approximately 60 PE firms in the Middle East today, primarily concentrated in the UAE… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MIDDLE EAST   DRIVERS OF THE PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY Macroeconomic Conditions ,[object Object],Description   ,[object Object],Regional Perspective Regulatory & Economic Restructuring ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Availability of Capital  ,[object Object],[object Object],Exit mechanism   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MIDDLE EAST   PRIVATE EQUITY GROWTH Total Funds Announced, Fund Raising, Investing and Rumored in MENA – 1994 onwards  US$ million, 2002 – March 2007
MENA PE FUND GROWTH  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CAGR 49% CAGR 63% CAGR 139%
MIDDLE EAST  INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES MENA  INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 630 US$ BILLION
MENA  HEALTHCARE SECTOR The sector has grown rapidly over the last decade.  It currently accounts for nearly 6 percent of the Dubai non-oil gross domestic product. The sector is predicted to grow by 14% over the coming 5 years.
MENA POWER SECTOR INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS HISTORICAL CAPACITY FORECAST CAPACITY 25% EXCCESS CAPACITY 35% CAPACITY SHORTFALL  GCC CAPACITY AND PEAK DEMAND FORECAST (MW) DEMAND ,[object Object],[object Object]
MIDDLE EAST TRANSPORT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY US$BIL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MENA  PRIVATE EDUCATION SECTOR 1. The Estimated size of MENA market is @ US 114 Billion by 2015.  2.  The MENA region is set to achieve a world’s highest higher education admission level.  3. The growth going forward will be witnesses in the private sector growth in the higher education
MIDDLE EAST  PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6% 9% 17% The new capacity expected is 33% of global capacity
MIDDLE EAST MINING SECTOR   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BASE AND CAPACITY CREEP NEW PRODUCTION DEMAND GLOBAL  ALUMINUM DEMAND SUPPLY OUTLOOK MIL TONS
US$ 325 billion of private investment required over next 5 years Even with large budget surpluses in the GCC for example, there is still a large deficit  in required financing.   GCC PROJECTS (US$ BILLION) The Saudi Arabian government requires investments of US$ 624 billion over the next 15 years ESTIMATED PUBLIC VS PRIVATE  FUNDING  IN THE GCC UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Total Projects Excess Oil Rev. 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398 Qatar 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398
FACTORS DRIVING THE NEED FOR  FACTORS FAVOURING PRIVATE INVESTMENT   NON PERFORMING LOANS AS % OF TOTAL LOANS LACKING  CORPORATE GOVERNANCE LOW LABOR PRODUCTIVITY INEFFICIENT  CAPITAL STRUCTURES EAST ASIA E.EUROPE &C.ASIA LATIN AMERICA MENA OECD SOUTH ASIA SUB SAH AFRICA PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY 0.20 0.37 0.77 -0.78 1.89 -0.29 -0.41 INSTITUTIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY -0.11 -0.16 -0.09 -0.32 1.38 -0.41 -0.66
FURTHER PRIVATISATION OPPORTUNITIES SNAP SHOT   COUNTRY KEY SELECTED AREAS  ANNOUNCED PIPELINE NO. OF TRANSACTIONS UAE  POWER  WATER OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS  28 KUWAIT FINANCIAL SERVICES FOOD AND BEVERAGE  LOGISTICS  ENGINEERING  23 OMAN FINANCIAL SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATIONS POWER  TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS 6 SAUDI ARABIA  POWER  TELECOMMUNICATION TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS OIL AND GAS  8 JORDAN  POWER  TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS  TELECOMMUNICATIONS  OIL AND GAS  13 EGYPT  FINANCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS  TELECOMMUNICATIONS  OIL AND GAS  92 PAKSITAN  FINANCIAL SERVICES  TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS  FOOD AND BEVERAGE  HEALTHCARE  63 INDIA TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS  POWER  TELECOMMNUNICATIONS  NATURAL RESOURCE  13
Thanks and Questions  Source of Information 1. Abraaj Capital presentation ;  2. E&Y Global Website  3. Google and Yahoo search sites

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MIDDLE EAST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITES FOR PRIVATE EQUITY

  • 1. DISCUSSION PAPER ON MIDDLE EAST OPPORTUNITIES
  • 2. Global private equity firms have historically ignored the region with the MENA region only accounting for 0.1% of the US$ 2.3 trillion* PE industry PRIVATE EQUITY FUND DISTRIBUTION Americas 72.1% Europe 22.2% Asia 4.3% Oceana 0.7% South Asia 0.3% MENA 0.1% Africa 0.2% *US$ 400 billion of the global PE industry, including leverage represents a US$ 2 trillion in potential buying power Source: Thomson One Banker, Fortune Magazine Regional PE industry as a % of total PE industry of US$ 2.2 trillion
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Gradual liberalization of regulations are conducive to economic growth, yet more efforts are required to create a favorable environment FAVOURABLE REGULATIONS IN MENA REGION FOREIGN OWNERSHIP CUSTOMS CLEARANCE INTELECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LABOR LAWS DISPUTE SETTLEMENT FDI INFLOW Unfavorable Favorable Gradual liberalization of regulations and the impact on Economy
  • 8. UAE Oman Qatar Bahrain Saudi Jordan Tunisia Morocco Lebanon Yemen Algeria Egypt Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon OPENNESS OF CUSTOMS REGIME EFFICIENCY OF LEGAL FRAMEWORKS Qatar Tunisia UAE Oman Jordan Morocco Bahrain Egypt Algeria Yemen Saudi Lebanon ORGANIZED EFFORTS TO IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS 1= WEAK 7= STRONG MENA REGION –INVESTMENT INDICATORS UAE attracted 58% of all regional FDI projects
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. MIDDLE EAST PRIVATE EQUITY GROWTH Total Funds Announced, Fund Raising, Investing and Rumored in MENA – 1994 onwards US$ million, 2002 – March 2007
  • 12.
  • 13. MIDDLE EAST INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES MENA INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 630 US$ BILLION
  • 14. MENA HEALTHCARE SECTOR The sector has grown rapidly over the last decade. It currently accounts for nearly 6 percent of the Dubai non-oil gross domestic product. The sector is predicted to grow by 14% over the coming 5 years.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. MENA PRIVATE EDUCATION SECTOR 1. The Estimated size of MENA market is @ US 114 Billion by 2015. 2. The MENA region is set to achieve a world’s highest higher education admission level. 3. The growth going forward will be witnesses in the private sector growth in the higher education
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. US$ 325 billion of private investment required over next 5 years Even with large budget surpluses in the GCC for example, there is still a large deficit in required financing. GCC PROJECTS (US$ BILLION) The Saudi Arabian government requires investments of US$ 624 billion over the next 15 years ESTIMATED PUBLIC VS PRIVATE FUNDING IN THE GCC UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Total Projects Excess Oil Rev. 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398 Qatar 272 200 113 32 81 25 723 398
  • 21. FACTORS DRIVING THE NEED FOR FACTORS FAVOURING PRIVATE INVESTMENT NON PERFORMING LOANS AS % OF TOTAL LOANS LACKING CORPORATE GOVERNANCE LOW LABOR PRODUCTIVITY INEFFICIENT CAPITAL STRUCTURES EAST ASIA E.EUROPE &C.ASIA LATIN AMERICA MENA OECD SOUTH ASIA SUB SAH AFRICA PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY 0.20 0.37 0.77 -0.78 1.89 -0.29 -0.41 INSTITUTIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY -0.11 -0.16 -0.09 -0.32 1.38 -0.41 -0.66
  • 22. FURTHER PRIVATISATION OPPORTUNITIES SNAP SHOT COUNTRY KEY SELECTED AREAS ANNOUNCED PIPELINE NO. OF TRANSACTIONS UAE POWER WATER OIL AND GAS TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS 28 KUWAIT FINANCIAL SERVICES FOOD AND BEVERAGE LOGISTICS ENGINEERING 23 OMAN FINANCIAL SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATIONS POWER TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS 6 SAUDI ARABIA POWER TELECOMMUNICATION TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS OIL AND GAS 8 JORDAN POWER TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS OIL AND GAS 13 EGYPT FINANCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS TELECOMMUNICATIONS OIL AND GAS 92 PAKSITAN FINANCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS FOOD AND BEVERAGE HEALTHCARE 63 INDIA TRANSPORTATION AND PORTS POWER TELECOMMNUNICATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE 13
  • 23. Thanks and Questions Source of Information 1. Abraaj Capital presentation ; 2. E&Y Global Website 3. Google and Yahoo search sites