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A Primer on Syria
- 1. Understanding the Syrian Catastrophe five years of revolution, reaction and inaction October 23 2016 sarabiany.com
- 2. 2 “History will remember that the scribbles of the children of Deraa moved the fleets of the world.” – Revolutionaries of Tel Rifaat Cover Photo: Amer Almohibany/AFP
- 3. 3
- 4. 4 of Syria’s population has been displaced since 2011 1/2 more than
- 5. 5 As if 160 million Americans had to flee their homes past 5+ years
- 7. 7 4,794,473 UNHCR registered refugees As of Oct 10 2016: http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php 2,733,655 1,033,513 225,445 656,400 116,175
- 8. 8 6.1 million internally displaced Sept 2016: http://www.unocha.org/syria Photo: sarabiany.com
- 9. 9 6.1 million internally displaced Photo: sarabiany.comSept 2016: http://www.unocha.org/syria
- 10. 10 “Syria has become a country of poor people, with an estimated 4 in every 5 Syrians now living in poverty.” UN Report 2015 http://bit.ly/1RVGaNU
- 11. 11 “life expectancy has shrunk from 76to 56 years old” UN Report 2015 http://bit.ly/1RVGaNU
- 12. 12 13.5 million people in need of humanitarian assistance Photo: sarabiany.comhttp://www.unocha.org/syria
- 13. 13 "has become the biggest humanitarian emergency of our era, yet the world is failing to meet the needs of refugees and the countries hosting them.” - António Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees August 2014 http://www.unhcr.org/53ff76c99.html
- 14. 14 This is not a natural disaster. This catastrophe is manmade.
- 15. 15 45+ years of Assad family rule
- 16. 16 45+years of Assad family rule • absolute power • sectarian, regional & business networks • police state • utter brutality (Hama ’82) • no independent civil society • undermine the public space • father to son hand-off in 2000
- 17. 17 Hafez Jr. (2001)- “We were born under Hafez and we’ll die under Hafez.”
- 18. 18 REUTERS/Zohra Bensemrahttp://archive.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/01/an_uprising_in_tunisia.html
- 19. 19
- 20. 20
- 21. 21 “The Syrian people won’t be humiliated” - Hariqa protest February 17 2011
- 22. 22 “Your turn has come, Doctor.” - Deraa March 2011
- 23. 23 March 2011: “The people want…” Photo: Daraa March 2011
- 24. 24
- 25. 25Photo: Homs,April 18, 2011 Protests spread regionally
- 26. 26Photo: Damascus, 2012 Rural towns & suburbs
- 27. 27 Photo: Baniyas, May, 2011 http://bit.ly/230vWr8https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilresistance/maciej-bartkowski-mohja-kahf/syrian-resistance-tale-of-two-struggles “The Syrian People are One! One, One, One!”
- 28. 28 Photo: Baniyas, May, 2011 http://bit.ly/230vWr8https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilresistance/maciej-bartkowski-mohja-kahf/syrian-resistance-tale-of-two-struggles “The Syrian People are One! One, One, One!”
- 29. 29Photo: Jobar, Damascus, 2012 Often led by youth
- 30. 30 Photo: Baniyas, May, 2011 http://bit.ly/230vWr8 Creative resistance
- 31. Photo: Baniyas, May, 2011 http://bit.ly/230vWr8
- 32. 32Photo: Damascus, 2012 Flash mobs
- 33. 33Photo: Homs,April 24 2011 Sit-ins & square takeovers
- 34. 34Photo: Hama, July 22, 2011.AP “The people want…”
- 35. Photo: Hama, July 22, 2011.AP
- 36. 36 “We will sit here. We call it a fight until the end…They should know when we suffer, we will not suffer alone.” - Rami Makhlouf, May 2011 NY Times
- 37. 37 “Assad or we burn the country” The war in Syria was started to crush dissent.
- 38. 38 The past five years can be seen through the prism of those challenging, or defending the status quo.
- 39. international community world powers regional powers non-state actors 39 popular uprising vs a regime international community
- 42. 42 Mass detention & 'industrial scale' killing of detainees A painting for Abdulla Omari called “ Detainee”
- 44. 44 In 2012-13, the fear of rape was the #1 reason Syrians fled the country. http://thebea.st/1Tsj4Ur
- 50. 50 Broken “red lines”, chemical weapons attacks https://www.hrw.org/report/2013/09/10/attacks-ghouta/analysis-alleged-use-chemical-weapons-syria
- 52. 52https://t.co/96CrQWx8Av 1 million people under siege in 40 communities across Syria. An additional 1.4 million people in “watchlist” areas. 88% are under regime siege. 10% under regime/ISIS siege.
- 53. 53 Local coordinating committees, councils and an explosion of civil defense, society and administration
- 55. 55
- 56. international community world powers regional powers non-state actors 56 popular uprising vs a regime international community
- 58. 58 Photo: Khaled Al-Hariri Reuters February 2011 long-standing, mutual beneficial relationship
- 59. 59 By 2012, Hezbollah introduced to extend regime lines, and supplement manpower - by 2013 lead campaigns
- 60. 60 In the summer of 2012, regime militias were reorganized into the NDF by Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Suleimani
- 61. 61 By the end of 2014, over 21,000 Iranian-backed foreign fighters to uphold the regime
- 62. 62 Assad became, under Iranian financial, technical and military support became the best funded and armed warlord in Syria. And Iran, through thousands of loyal fighters, is securing its interests in a post-Assad Syria.
- 63. 63
- 64. 64
- 65. 65 What helped create ISIS? 1 2 3 4 5 6 US invasion & occupation of Iraq Al-Qaeda schisms, Salafist ideology & Gulf networks Assad’s war on Syrians Iranian influence in Iraq & region The Obama-doctrine & policy of inaction Decades of autocratic rule & Western exploitation sarabiany.com 12.17.15
- 66. 66 Between 27,000 and 31,000 have travelled to Syrian and Iraq, most to join ISIS - 6,000 are European http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/iraq-and-syria-how-many-foreign-fighters-are-fighting-for-isil/
- 67. 67
- 68. 68
- 69. 69 The ISIS advance in late 2014 added to an already desperate situationPhoto Reuters: http://bit.ly/1TukFcB
- 71. 71 Kobani
- 72. international community world powers regional powers non-state actors 72 popular uprising vs a regime international community
- 74. 74 “There is a different leader in Syria now. Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.” - Secretary Clinton March 27 2011
- 75. 75 6 months later “the time has come for President Assad to step aside.” - President Obama August 18 2011
- 76. 76
- 77. 77 “impotent cocktail of appeasement, containment and extremely non-lethal, passive support for the revolution” to drive towards a negotiated settlement. Outcome: ‘Assadism' with or without Assad
- 78. 78 “We Will Degrade and Ultimately Destroy ISIL” - President Obama September 2014
- 79. 79Political cover and direct intervention
- 80. 80
- 81. 81 Russian intervention in the fall 2015 resulted in another spike of displaced Syrians Photograph: Ghaith Omran/AFP/Getty Images
- 82. 82 Russian Intervention has succeeded in: - solidify regime periphery - take control from Iran - galvanize regime base - assert current status quo
- 83. 83 Rebels & revolutionaries Assad regime & allies Kurdish groups Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (aka Jabhat-Nusra (AQ)) ISIS 1 2 3 4 5 5 Key Groupings Anti-ISIS proxies (NSA)+
- 84. 84 470,000killed in 5+ Years February 2016: Syrian Centre for Policy Research
- 85. 85
- 86. 86
- 87. 87
- 88. 88
- 89. 89
- 90. 90
- 91. 91
- 92. international community world powers regional powers non-state actors 92 popular uprising vs a regime international community
- 93. 93 While the US and European Union are collectively the largest donors of humanitarian aid to Syria, providing about $4bn and$4.3bn respectively from 2012-2015, the contribution is still… less than the $8.4bn the UN requested for 2015 alone.
- 95. 95 Systematic sectarian massacres + rape campaigns Air bombardment ISIS advance Russian intervention European exodus
- 96. 96 The catastrophe didn’t make international headlines…
- 97. 97 Until…
- 98. 98 “death is a risk I was willing to take so I could live.” Photo: Yannis Behrakis/ReutersCover Photo: sarabiany.com
- 99. 99 image of refugees in europe
- 100. 100 Worst catastrophe since WW2
- 101. 101 Migrant is not a Refugee
- 102. 102 1,151,865asylum seekers in Europe between Apr 2011 and Aug 2016 http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php
- 103. 103
- 104. 104 What has been the response in North America?
- 105. 105 "… accepting 25,000 Syrian refugees does right by both the safety of Canadians and by the values that define us as a nation." http://bit.ly/1ZV3kdj
- 106. 106 Syrian refugees admitted to the US since 2011 13,993 military aged males who are unattached to families 2% Source: U.S. State Department Refugee Processing Center Custom Report: http://bit.ly/1LoVa3p http://bzfd.it/1ZV15qv However, in the US…
- 107. 107 Last September, due to public pressure Obama increased the quota to 10k Syrians in 2016 (out of 85k) Photo: sarabiany.com
- 108. 108 “Ten thousand is not even close to being commensurate with the massive scale of the Syrian refugee crisis, nor in line with this country’s historic global leadership in refugee resettlement" David Miliband, president and CEO
- 110. 110 One of the goals of the ISIS Paris attacks was to provide cover for a bigoted response in Europe & the US towards vulnerable populations fleeing both the regime & ISIS. A fake Syrian passport was found lying nearby, left by the attackers.
- 111. 111 Bush suggested a religious test for Syrian refugees
- 112. 112 Carson compared refugees to 'rabid' dogs
- 113. 113 Cruz supported Governor ‘rebellion’ to allow states to ban refugees
- 114. 114 Trump said he would deport the refugees already here & ban Muslims
- 115. 115 Rubio said ‘we can’t accept’ them and adjusted based on political rhetoric
- 116. 116 Christie insisted that the U.S. not even accept 5-year-old orphans
- 117. 117
- 118. 118 Even when arriving in the US, life is difficult. resettlement support assimilation language commuting schools work daily supplies social network bigotry
- 119. 119 Where are we today? "I am here with the entire government to send a clear message that we are determined to retake every inch of Syria from the terrorists, to restore peace and stability in the country and to rebuild everything that has been destroyed in the past,” - Bashar Assad 9/12/16
- 122. 122 Russian assertiveness calling the shots
- 123. 123 Aleppo is being pulverized http://blogs.ft.com/photo-diary/tag/ syria/page/2/
- 125. 125 Where are we today? "We will not allow our assistance to be instrumentalized for a mass expulsion operation, and we refuse to be part of a system that has no regard for the humanitarian or protection needs of asylum seekers and migrants” MSF on EU Plan Photo by Alexander Koerner/Getty Images
- 127. 127 “a whole generation is growing up in the camps of exile – these children who’ve lost a father to shelling, a friend’s brother to bullets, a sister’s husband to torture. When they grow up and realize that life is more than a refugee camp, that it isn’t natural to lose everything to tyranny … this generation will bear a culture of revenge and anger, and a permanent sense of injustice.” - Activist Aziz Asaad, Guardian
- 128. 128 “History will remember that the scribbles of the children of Deraa moved the fleets of the world.” – Revolutionaries of Tel Rifaat