The document discusses how prediction markets and collective intelligence tools can be used by companies to improve forecasting, innovation, and decision making. It provides examples of companies that have used NewsFutures' prediction market software and platforms like prediction markets, competitive forecasting, idea pageants and impact matrices to generate forecasts, select new ideas, measure risks and make decisions.

1. Collective Intelligence @ Work Stories from the Field Norris Clark www.newsfutures.com

2. Thanks to John and Sarah!

3. Leading companies have adopted prediction markets to improve forecasting and innovation ” “ 2000 2004 2008 Leaders deprive themselves of information that could enrich their analysis and reduce the risk of ivory tower decision making. Some executives understand that valuable information lies scattered around the organization but don’t know how to retrieve it. Prediction markets might solve these problems. The McKinsey Quarterly, April 2008

6. NewsFutures has worked for leading companies and media groups around the world 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Newsfutures invents Competitive Forecasting for Arcelor and Mars Yahoo! buys NewsFutures prediction market software Launch of Global Risks Prediction Market at Davos 2006 U.S. Military adopts NewsFutures technology NewsFutures invents Idea Pageant for managing innovation 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

11. Incentives Calibration The 4 best r easons to participate R ewards : What can I win? R elevance : Are the questions relevant to my job? Am I knowledgeable? R ecognition : Will my performance be recognized by my bosses and peers? R elationships : Does the market help me interact meaningfully with bosses and peers?

14. ” “ NewsFutures has done some of the most innovative work in the area for longer than most. They were in there making it happen for real while others were clueless on the fringes. Ajit Kambil Gobal Director, Deloitte Research

16. Forecasting Product Prices

17. Company : Intercontinental Hotels Date : Sept 2007 - … Duration : 4 weeks Application : Innovation Design : Idea Pageant Participants : Emerging Technlogies Dept. # participants : 200 ” “ We wanted to tap the creative class that may not be able to voice their ideas Zubin Dowlaty, VP Emerging Technologies, Intercontinental Hotels – NYT, 09/04/08 InterContinental Hotels Group was looking for new ideas to improve customer experience. Case Study

19. Case Study Describing a new idea

20. Case Study Describing a new idea

21. Case Study Betting on the ideas

23. Partnering with the New England Consulting Group Client: A large ($3B) off-web info company in disrupted market. Goal: New CEO wants actionable ideas to transform business Design: Three phase process using various tools Duration: 1 week, 92 participants Phase One – 644 proposals in seven categories Phase Two - 371 moved to Idea Pageant Phase Three - 120 Ideas evaluated by senior management “ There were many, many compliments on the software. Very easy to use, intuitive, and extremely useful. It would have taken us weeks or months to get this much information otherwise. Very successful project.” - EVP in charge of project Case Study