KVA Symposium ocean acidification Cornell 2014
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KVA Symposium ocean acidification Cornell 2014
- 1. 1 A PARTNER WITH What do we know about the costs of ocean acidification to future Swedish society? Dr Sarah Cornell Stockholm, October 2014 pH 8.12, 1989 pH 8.08, 2009 Figure Doney 2010, data Dore et al 2009
- 2. Message 1: We know very little But we know enough to inform sensible policy choices CO 2 Useful overviews: Royal Society, 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. www.royalsociety.org, document ID 13539. Doney et al., 2010. The growing human footprint on coastal and ocean biogeochemistry. Science 328 1512-1516.
- 3. Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes Carbon dioxide Fossil fuel combus on Agriculture Deforesta on Organic pollutants and toxic metals Nutrient elements Climate change Coastal eutrophica on and hypoxia Altered biological produc on Ocean acidifica on Lowered O2 simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences
- 4. Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes Carbon dioxide Fossil fuel combus on Agriculture Deforesta on Organic pollutants and toxic metals Nutrient elements Climate change Coastal eutrophica on and hypoxia Altered biological produc on Ocean acidifica on Lowered O2 simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences
- 5. Ocean acidification is essentially irreversible All aspects of ecosystems are affected by ocean acidification: • Primary production • Nutrient cycling • Biodiversity • Resilience (where organisms survive – but at a cost) • Trophic webs • Habitats
- 6. As CO2 rises and ocean pH drops, 75 50 25 0 US$ Trillion costs to society will rise Policy cost + damages by 2100 (Estimates from Kempfert 2005 and Watkiss et al 2005) Damages by 2200 Damages by 2200 Damages by 2100 Costs of Ac on vs Inac on Stern 2006: 2% of global GDP to achieve climate stabilization at 500 ppm CO2e Costs of inaction are >5% (up to 20% or more) of world GDP Nordhaus 2008: Net cost of delaying mitigation by 50 years is US$ 2.3 Trillion (2005 prices)
- 7. Message 2: We are driving global changes in a world where resilience is already depleted Human pressures are growing worldwide… Population __ World GDP Index __ CO2 emissions __ LPI biodiversity loss __ N and P use __ 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Data: US Bureau of the Census International Database, www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html; GDP from Earth Policy Institute, www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C53; and International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo); CO2 from Global Carbon Project; LPI www.panda.org/lpr; Global partnership for Nutrient Management, www.unep.org/gpnm. Also: Steffen et al. 2004, Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet under Pressure, Springer Verlag.
- 8. … and we only have this world 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 N and P use __ LPI biodiversity loss __ CO2 emissions __ World GDP Index __ Population __
- 9. Message 3: Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 N and P use __ LPI biodiversity loss __ CO2 emissions __ World GDP Index __ Population __ ‘Marginal’ changes are not marginal in complex systems with a history
- 10. Message 3: Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification ‘Capital’: Hard vs soft constraints? Infinite or finite shadow values? Preferences Direct Indirect Revealed Market prices Replacement costs Mitigation costs Hedonic pricing (also travel cost) Averting behaviour Stated Contingent valuation Choice experiments Cost(s) ≠ Price ≠ Value
- 11. Scoping studies: Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education • ‘Services that will be affected…’ • Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits Monetary valuations: US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391 US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries
- 12. Scoping studies: Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education • ‘Services that will be affected…’ • Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits Monetary valuations: US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391 US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries How will these ‘values’ be used?
- 13. Costs > Dollars Herman Daly (2009) – the unit of value is the ‘dollar’s worth’, not the dollar Ludwig von Mises (1949) – economic valuation is not ‘a category of all human action’, it operates ‘under the special conditions of the exchange market’ Sagoff 2000: diversity and deliberation are part of democratic decision-making Spash & Vatn 2006: apart from valuation, other approaches are available (motives/behaviour analysis, MCA, dialogue) Cornell 2010, Valuing ecosystem benefits in a dynamic world. Climate Research.
- 14. What can we say about Sweden? Sweden’s expected direct exposure: • Eutrophication and anoxia in Baltic (already low calcite) • Marine production sector: - Fish/shellfish - Bioresources Northern high latitudes ‘Robust’ fish species Production – yes, seafood. But also jobs, health, livelihoods… Environmental processes depend on the functioning of the whole environment Havenhand 2012, Ambio
- 15. Message 4: Delaying climate change mitigation (CO2 emissions cuts) will cost Sweden more in the future than now • Cost of impacts of ocean acidification will rise • Urbanization, emerging economies’ development pathways = lock-in, so best-value trade and aid investment is now.
- 16. Knowledge needs • Methods that make sense – complexity, economics within society within environment • Effects of ocean pH changes – chemistry, physics, biology + everything else • Local studies in global frameworks • Policies and institutions that support precaution, provisionality, participation
- 17. Thank you sarah.cornell@su.se Image: www.informationsecuritybuzz.com Global-network
Notes de l'éditeur
- “what do we know about the cost of ocean acidification in the future Swedish society”, the title is just a guideline what the committee would like you to speak about and can, off course, be changed if you like. The importance of your lecture is if you could highlight what information is needed to make more economic assessment of the cost i.e., both income and damage as well as what the cost is to reduce ocean acidification. The aim is to find out what research is needed to make a multi-disciplinary evaluation in Swedish waters. Ocean acidification is essentially irreversible during our lifetimes: it will take tens of thousands of years for ocean chemistry to return to a condition similar to that occurring in pre-industrial times, around 200 years ago (Royal Society, 2005).
- Can we predict costs? Can we ‘value’ ocean pH? Global assessment of costs of inaction on Climate Chemical pollution Nutrient management
- Kim, RE, 2012. Is a New Multilateral Environmental Agreement on Ocean Acidification Necessary? Review of European Community and International Environmental Law 21(3): 243–258.
- Forecasting Speculation Non-monotonic behaviour Discontinuities in the trend
- Speculation Forecasting
- (economic reduction of the public good to some aggregate of individual welfare). 1980s push to place monetary values on environmental functions, processes and services does not work in 2010s Embedded assumptions (growth/discounting) hitting their limits: exponential trajectories approximated with linear functions, externalities assume an external but “one planet”, complexity approximated with simplicity - discontinuities missing From Cornell 2011: “The ecosystem services concept involves a narrowing of focus onto the money value of ecosystems. Researchers and practitioners should reflect on past efforts in integrative benefits analysis. There can be a conceptual disconnection of value from function, particularly when there is a reliance on benefits transfer, yet the value of ecosystem services is conditional on a well-functioning whole ecosystem. The problem of data paucity is stark. While inadequate data and the resulting uncertainty are ubiquitous problems in environmental decision-making, the powerful simplicity of one number—the estimated monetary value of a given ecosystem service—may mean that more nuanced precautionary considerations that normally apply in uncertain contexts are bypassed. New challenges arise because values (determined in the past) are applied to a changing and already resource-depleted world. Here I highlight the non-stationary nature of trends, the extent to which models are trusted and its role in uncertainty and risk, and the need for in-depth interdisciplinary study.”