Oil and gas thailand 2011 v f

Oil & Gas Thailand 2011
อนาคตประเทศไทยอนาคตประเทศไทย
อุตสาหกรรมนํ้ามันและแก๊สอุตสาหกรรมนํ้ามันและแก๊ส
8th September 2011
ByBy
Pongpun Amornvivat
Corporate Commercial Planning Manager
Thai Oil Public Company Limited
p y

Today’s Agenda
้้อุตสาหกรรมนํ้ามันและแก๊สอุตสาหกรรมนํ้ามันและแก๊ส
Global Oil MarketGlobal Oil Market
Thailand’s Oil MarketThailand’s Oil Market
Changing Landscape & Changing Landscape &
Challenges for Thai RefineriesChallenges for Thai RefineriesChallenges for Thai Refineries Challenges for Thai Refineries
How to Stay in the GameHow to Stay in the Game
2

Today’s Agenda
3

Oil Story – The Chronology of Black Gold
Global Oil Market Thailand Oil Market Changing Landscape Stay in the Game Conclusion
$/BBL Oil Prices and Major Events
150
$/BBL
Brent
WTI
Oil Prices and Major Events
$147
Fears over
EU debt
2nd Bailout for
Greece
110
130 Lehman Brothers
showed $3.9bn loss
China imports
petroleum
products for
Olympics
Japan
Earthquake US Debt ceiling
dispute
90
$96
AIG received
$85bn from US
government
Dubai Debt Crisis
Greece debt woes,
Credit rating cut
Severe winter
$84
$108 End of
Gaddafi
70
GM, Ford & Chrysler
asked for 25bln
emergency Loan M t US t
Russia vs Ukraine
Gas Dispute
BP Oil Spill MENA Tension
$84
IEA release
60 mbbl
from SPR
S&P cut
US rating
30
50
$34
emergency Loan
US spending in Jan09
rebounded by 0.6%
Most US corporate
earning s in Q2’09 beat
market expectation Fears over EU debt
from SPR
Q1’11
BR: $106
WTI :$95
Q2’11
BR: $117
WTI : $102
US rating
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
4

Overview of Global Oil Market
Oil Market Driver Global Oil Market Thailand Price Structure
Oil Market Driver
NYMEX
(WTI)
Thailand EconomicWorld
Macroeconomic
ICE
Domestic Demand
Fundamental
(Brent)
Tax/Fund
Marketing
Margins
Non ‐ Fundamental
Platts
(Dubai)
Platts
(Gasoline and Diesel)
Thailand Retail Price
(Gasoline and Diesel)(Dubai) (Gasoline and Diesel)
5

Growing Global Economy
Global Economy continues to grow in 2012‐2016
12%
GDP Growth (%YoY)
…..
5 0% % % 4 7% 4 7%6%
9%
China
India
2.9%
0 5%
5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7%
3%
6%
Japan
Thailand-0.5%
-3%
0%
Thailand
US
-6%
EU
World
-9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 11 Apr 11, June Revision 6

Global Oil Demand Outlook
Global Oil Demand Outlook 2010/2011/2012
Thousands barrels per day
Europe
465 13
North America
295 179
79
FSU
‐109 ‐143 ‐49
Asia285
232 275
Middle East
465
‐225
13
1449
927 921
232
Africa
55 33 125
302 196 243
Latin America
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, August 2011
IEA
Demand
(mbd)
Growth
(mbd)
2011 89 49 +1 20
EIA
Demand
(mbd)
Growth
(mbd)
2011 88 19 +1 37
OPEC
Demand
(mbd)
Growth
(mbd)
2011 88 14 +1 21
, p , g
2011 89.49 +1.20
2012 91.09 +1.61
2011 88.19 +1.37
2012 89.83 +1.64
2011 88.14 +1.21
2012 89.44 +1.30
Source: OPEC, Oil Market Report August 11Source: IEA, Oil Market Report August 11 Source: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook August 11
7

Looking Beyond: Expected Slower Growth
Global oil demand continues to grow but at a declining rate, with high
h i i i d h i d l d ld
growth rate in emerging countries and stagnant growth in developed world
 Middle distillate products continue to outperform, supported by industrial demand
 Gasoline market remains under pressure on rising supply and sluggish demand due to higher fuel
ffi i & t ti f l t i hi lefficiency & penetration of electric vehicles
MBD
Global Oil Demand GrowthGlobal Oil Demand Growth
11..55
22..88
11 22
11..66
11 33 11 22 11 11 11 11
2 0
3.0
4.0
MBD
Others
S.America
11..22 11..33 11..22 11..11 11..11
0.0
1.0
2.0
ME
China
--00..66
--11..00
-3 0
-2.0
-1.0 OECD
Total
-3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
SOURCE: IEA Medium Term Report [Jun‐11] / IEA Oil Monthly Report [Aug‐11] 8

Rising call on OPEC crude
OPEC to fill up the gap to meet rising demand in the next 5 years
100
MBD
p g p g y
OPEC to raise production to match actual supply to balance the market
Demand
Growth Rate
(MBD)
80
90
Call on
OPEC Crude
2016
Call on
OPEC Crude
++66..33
2011-2016
DemandDemand
60
70
0 6
33.2 MBD
OPEC Crude
2011
30.6 MBD
+1 5+1 5
++22..66
NGLNGL
OPECOPEC
50
60 +1.5+1.5
++22..22
NGLNGL
NonNon‐‐OPECOPEC
40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
OPEC Crude
OPEC NGLs
Non‐OPEC Supply
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Demand
SOURCE: IEA, Oil Market Report July 11 9

Tight OPEC Spare Capacity
Tight OPEC capacity due to a loss in Libyan supply
Tight OPEC capacity due to a loss in Libyan supply
OPEC spare capacity tightened from peak of 5 MBD to just 3.5 MBD due to production loss
from Libya by 1.6 MBD, affected by the uprising.
33
35
Million BBL
31
33
Total OPEC Production Capacity
1.0
5.1 3.5
27
29
Total OPEC Production Capacity
Total OPEC supply
25
27
7
8
9
0
1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: OPEC Oil Market Report August 11 10

Funds Flow Fueling Oil Prices Volatility
Funds Flow Driving Oil Prices
Oil becomes an investment asset class and hedge tool against US dollar weakness …
PRICE
11

Investment Flows
Investment flow dipped from record high
150350 000
$/bblPositions
(1,000bbl/position)
Number of Contract WTI Prices
Non‐commercial players aggressively sold‐off oil contract futures on fears of global economic slowdown
130
150
300,000
350,000
90
110
200 000
250,000
70
90
150,000
200,000
50100,000
3050,000
Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐10 Jul‐10 Oct‐10 Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11
Source: US CFCT 12

Other Factors
Other Factors to Impact Oil Prices
DisastersDisastersGeopolitical Risk & Fears
of Supply Disruption
Geopolitical Risk & Fears
of Supply Disruption
Regulations & PoliciesRegulations & Policies
Volcanic eruption/
Earthquake/
Flu pandemicMENA Unrest
Libya, Yemen and Syria
Central Banks
QE3?, Interest rates
policy, RRR
Weather/SeasonalWeather/Seasonal
Ni i Di t
Taxes & Subsidies on
‘Green’ energy projects
Flood / Hurricane
Nigeria Dispute
Fade‐out Nuclear
Power Plant
Summer/ WinterIran nuclear sanction
13

Crude Oil Price Outlook
What the Others Say
Brent prices to be softer from the current level in H2‐11 due to “Debt Problem & Sluggish growth”
Oil Price Forecast BRENT
Unit : USD/BBL Q3-11 Q4-11 2011 2012 2013
BofAML 110.0 102.0 108.6 114.0 -
Barclays 110.0 115.0 112.0 115.3 -
BNP Paribas 113.0 116.0 114.0 124.0 -
Citigroup 107.0 95.0 106.0 86.3 -
Credit Suisse 110.0 100.0 108.4 100.5 -
First Energy 110.0 115.1 111.8 113.8 115.0
Global Risk 110.0 107.0 108.5 112.3 -
Goldman Sachs 114.0 119.5 113.5 130.0 -
JBC Energy 110.4 104.5 109.3 105.9 106.9
JPM 112 0 115 0JPMorgan - - 112.0 115.0 -
Morgan Stanley - - 120.0 130.0 -
Soc Gen 114.2 113.3 112.6 115.2 119.0
UBS 105 0 95 0 105 7 95 0 95 0
14Source : Reuters Polls (31 companies) as of 26 August 11
UBS 105.0 95.0 105.7 95.0 95.0
Average from Reuters 109.7 105.1 109.5 107.9 110.4

Crude Oil Price Outlook
What We See??
What We See??
We expects Brent to be average $111 in 2011 due to strong demand from
Asia and the Middles East, limited supply from Libya and more fund flows
$117
$110 $112 $110
120120
$/BBL$/BBL
$106
$99
$80
90
100
110
90
100
110
$66
$73
$63
$80
60
70
80
60
70
80
2011 Brent $111
40
50
60
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 20122006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2012
Latest Forecast Actual
15

Conclusion of Global Oil Market
 Oil demand growing steadily but at slower pace Oil demand growing steadily but at slower pace
OIL MARKETOIL MARKET
g g y p
 Non‐OPEC crude oil supply growing less than demand
 OPEC still playing a key role in controlling the market
g g y p
 Non‐OPEC crude oil supply growing less than demand
 OPEC still playing a key role in controlling the market
PRICE FORECASTPRICE FORECAST
 Short‐term: Expect Brent to trade in $95‐$115 range
 Medium to long term: Expect persistently high oil
i t t i l di it l d b ti ht d il it
 Short‐term: Expect Brent to trade in $95‐$115 range
 Medium to long term: Expect persistently high oil
i t t i l di it l d b ti ht d il it
PRICE FORECASTPRICE FORECAST
prices at triple digits, led by tight crude oil capacity
 Oil prices to be volatile, led by market sentiment and
macroeconomic conditions
prices at triple digits, led by tight crude oil capacity
 Oil prices to be volatile, led by market sentiment and
macroeconomic conditions
16

Today’s Agenda
17

Thailand Energy Dependency At A Glance
• Sign of improvement in energy consumption efficiencySign of improvement in energy consumption efficiency
• However, in 1H 2011, figure has bounced back to 1.3, implying that Thailand still relied
significantly on energy in driving the economyg y gy g y
Source : Ministry of Energy, NESDB & TOP PLC 18

Among the energy consumed, Oil & Gas accounts for
70% of total energy consumption
• Thai economy is addicted to Oil & Gas with 70% of total energy consumptionThai economy is addicted to Oil & Gas with 70% of total energy consumption
• Natural gas is showing significant growth
Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) / TOP PLC 19

Quick View of Thailand NG & Oil supply & demand
20

Thailand Petroleum Product Balance
• Before 1997 financial crisis, Thai petroleum demand grew robustly at 12.1% p.a. & Thailand was f f , p g y p
net importing nation at that time.
• However, since 1997, Thai petroleum demand growth has been very low at 0.5% p.a. on average
• More local supply was added on stream with new refineries changing Thailand to be a net export
nation
Source : Ministry of Energy, NESDB, TOP PLC 21

Local petroleum demand growth
Petroleum Demand Growth
Key Factors affecting petro demand
 S rging & olatile cr de oil price Surging & volatile crude oil price
 Government policy on Biofuel &
Petro retail pricesPetro retail prices
 Political Stability & tourists’
confidenceconfidence
 Fragile global economy after 2008
economic crisiseconomic crisis
22Source : Ministry of Energy & TOP PLC

Thailand Petroleum Product Demand Outlook 2030
• Oil demand in the next 20 years is relatively low compared to historical figures owing toOil demand in the next 20 years is relatively low compared to historical figures owing to
the 3 main factors which are the rise in oil price trend, more alternative/renewable energy
and increased efficiency.
Thailand Petroleum Products Demand Outlook
(Average Annual Growth Rate : AAGR)
ff y
( g )
Source : TOP PLC Estimate 23

Preview 15‐Year Thailand Renewable Development Plan
24

Aggressive Target on “Less Oil Dependency Policy”
• Based on actual figure 2011 7M, ethanol + Biodiesel + NGV have already replacedBased on actual figure 2011 7M, ethanol + Biodiesel + NGV have already replaced
mogas & gasoil around 16% or 11 mml/day
Source : Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy and Thaioil PLC estimate (2011) 25

In addition to government’s effort to promote alternative energy
(biofuel & NGV), capped local LPG price also encourages surge in LPG
demand in transportation sectordemand in transportation sector
Accumulated LPG vehicle
LPG V hi lLPG in Transportation Sector
(‘000 unit) LPG Vehicles
400
600
800 649
LPG in Transportation Sector
 As local LPG price is capped far below international
price, it causes market distortion & encourage switching
d d t d LPG f t t ti
0
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
demand toward LPG for transportation usage
 As of Jul-2011, LPG usage in transportation sector
reach 5.23 mml/day or 7% of total mogas & gasoil demand
LPG usage in transportation as of
/
LPG Station
Jul‐11, it’s at 5.23 mml/day
Source : DOEB, Ministry of Energy 26

Energy Policy : A Big Impact
Example of Recent Changes in Oil Fuel Fund /Excise Tax Policies
• During December 2010 to April 2011, government used oil fuel fund to cap diesel
retail price at below 30 Baht/Litre
• Then from April 2011 onward, excise tax removal has been used instead to maintain diesel
price below 30 Baht/Litre
• On August 27 2011 government slashed oil fuel fund collection on ULG91/95 & Diesel causingOn August 27, 2011, government slashed oil fuel fund collection on ULG91/95 & Diesel causing
retail price lower by 3 – 8 Baht/Litre overnight
• Later on August 31, 2011, government reduced oil fund collection on Gasohol 91,95 & E20 to
maintain the attractiveness of Gasohol over normal Gasoline
27

Base on Regression Study, Recent Drop in Gasoline/Diesel Retail Prices due to
temporary oil fuel fund removal would have positive effect on local petro demand
Gasoline/Gasohol
From regression analysis, every 1%
drop in gasoline price will cause
Retail price of U91/95 edged down
by 6‐8 B/Litre or by 17%
Gasoline/Gasohol
drop in gasoline price will cause
gasoline demand to rise by 0.3% Thus, U91/95 demand are
potentially to rise by 5%.
Diesel
From regression analysis, every
1% drop in diesel price will cause
Diesel
Retail price of diesel reduced by
3B/Litre or by 10%
p p
diesel demand to rise by 0.4% Thus, diesel demand is expected to
rise by 4%.
Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) , TOP PCL 28

Conclusion on Thailand Oil Market
 Thai Economy is addicted to Enegry in driving
economic expansion
 Thailand ill remain net petro e porting nations Thailand will remain net petro exporting nations
as demand growth is relatively low
 Thailand will be “Asian Alternative Energy Hub”
29

Conclusion on Thailand Oil Market
 Thai Economy relies heavily on energy consumption in driving Econ Growth
( fl t d i E I t it f 1 3 d i 1H 2011)(as reflected in Energy Intensity of 1.3 during 1H‐2011)
 Among energy consumed, Oil & Gas accounts for 70%. BUT in term of growth rate
natural gas enjoys growth of almost 10% p a during the past 20 years while oilnatural gas enjoys growth of almost 10% p.a. during the past 20 years, while oil
has growth of merely 2% p.a.
 Surging crude oil prices together with aggressive government’s push for Surging crude oil prices, together with aggressive government s push for
alternative fuel, has caused local petro demand being low & volatile and Thailand
has been net petro exporting nations since 1997 (with currently export around
230 KBD of petro product)230 KBD of petro product)
 As of 1H‐2011, ethanol + biodiesel + NGV has already replaced Mogas & Diesel of
around 11 mml/day or 16% and if incorporating LPG, the replacement will rise to / y p g , p
16 mml/day or 22%
 Certainly, other government policies such as changing oil fuel fund / excise tax,
promotion of mass transit system would inevitably have impact on local petro
demand in the long run
30

Today’s Agenda
31

New wave of refining capacity addition
As new supply is lagging growing demand, cracking margin will be healthy
 Product demand growth in ME & AP will outpace additional capacity during 2010‐2014
 The wave of new ME refineries starting from 2015 will put pressure on refining business
KBD
ME Additional Demand
Refinery Addition Refinery Addition vsvs Demand Growth in AP & MEDemand Growth in AP & ME
2,000
2,500
3,000 ME Additional Demand
AP Additional Demand
Taiwan
ME
Breathing Period 3.2 MBD
3 9 MBD3 9 MBD
6.3 MBD6.3 MBD
500
1,000
1,500 Vietnam
AP Others
Japan
India
3.9 MBD3.9 MBD
-1,000
-500
0
China
ME CDU Capacity Addition
AP CDU Capacity Addition
1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SOURCE: FACTS Global Energy, Asia‐Pacific Databook, Spring 2011 (April 2011) 32

New players with high complexity
New refineries come with full cracking facilities
60%
VDU/CDU
Asian Pacific's Refinery
 Existing refineries with low cracking ratio will be less and less competitive
Japan India
China
50%
60% Asian Pacific s Refinery
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
30%
40%
Pakistan
Phili i
Malaysia
South Korea
Taiwan
Australia
10%
20%
Philippine Vietnam
‐10%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CRACKING/CDU
SOURCE: Thai Oil, FACTS Asia Pacific Databook, Spring 2010 33

Pressured Refining Margin
Weakening refining margin on capacity surplus
10.00
USD/BBL Singapore Gross Refining MarginSingapore Gross Refining Margin
6.00
8.00
2 00
4.00
0.00
2.00
-4.00
-2.00
Cracking Margin Simple Margin
*Including internal fuel and loss
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
34

Higher fuel efficient vehicles in the future
% penetration on new vehicles, 2020
Europe KoreaGlobal market North America
El t i
100% = ~ 90 mn cars 100% = ~21 mn cars 100%= ~ 20 mn cars 100%= ~ 1 mn cars
Electric
vehicle
(EV)
Hybrid
24
16
9 1
25 26
3 1
24
20
16
3
25
410 1
Internal
Combustion
83
72 73 77
95
Combustion
Engines
(ICE)
67 72 73
60 65
A : Government incentive battery cost ~200 USD/ kwh oil ~110 USD/ bblA : Government incentive battery cost ~200 USD/ kwh oil ~110 USD/ bbl
A B A B A B A B
A : Government incentive, battery cost 200 USD/ kwh, oil 110 USD/ bbl
B : No incentives, battery cost ~200 USD/ kwh, oil ~60 USD/ bbl
A : Government incentive, battery cost 200 USD/ kwh, oil 110 USD/ bbl
B : No incentives, battery cost ~200 USD/ kwh, oil ~60 USD/ bbl
SOURCE: McKinsey 35

Alternatives cutting demand for fossil
Biofuel demand grew over 6 times in the past 10 years
Biofuel demand grew over 6 times in the past 10 years
 Share of biofuel usage continues to grow consistently on the back of strong government support
 Global biofuel consumption will contribute 2.4% in 2016, most of which replaces gasoline usage
Growing share of Growing share of biofuelsbiofuels
4%
5%
90
100
% of BiofuelTotal Oil Supply (MBD)
2%
3%
70
80
0%
1%
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
SOURCE: IEA Medium Term Report [Jun‐11] / IEA Oil Monthly Report [Aug‐11] 36

Overview of Thailand’s Refineries
 There are 7 refineries in Thailand with total refining capacity of 1,092 KBD and majority of
production is on middle distillates (Jet & Gasoil) which match with country demand patternproduction is on middle distillates (Jet & Gasoil), which match with country demand pattern
SOURCE: PTIT Focus Special Annual Report 2004, except for capacity figure for RRC (Based on RRC Offering Memorandum) 37

AEC : Expanding Boundary
ASEAN
Countries
2003
Countries
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
: ASC :
ASEAN Political‐Security Community
: AEC :
ASEAN E i C it
1992
AFTA g p
Thailand
Brunei
Vietnam
Myanmar
Laos
ASEAN Economic Community
: ASCC :
ASEAN Social‐Cultural Community
AFTA
ASEAN Free Trade Area
Laos
Cambodia
Promote and protect
investment under National
Treatment
What is AEC?
Free Flow Free Flow of
Free Flow of
Investment
Fast track
services include
ICT, Healthcare,
Tourism, Air
Transportation Engineer
Lifting restrictions
for capital mobility
Free Flow
of Goods
of Services
ee o o
Capital
Free Flow of
Skill d L b
Eliminate
Tariff
Transportation g
Architect
Accountant
Doctor
Nurse
Dentist
of Goods Skilled LaborTariff
Construction
38

AEC & Logistic Link as “the Opportunity”
North-South
East-West
Southern
39

Conclusion of Future Challenges
 Demand growth in Asia Pacific and Middle East to
outpace refining capacity addition from now till 2014
 Demand growth in Asia Pacific and Middle East to
outpace refining capacity addition from now till 2014
REGIONAL MARKETREGIONAL MARKET
 New wave of new capacity from ME during 2015‐2018
to again pressure the industry
 The challenge of green trend
 New wave of new capacity from ME during 2015‐2018
to again pressure the industry
 The challenge of green trendThe challenge of green trendThe challenge of green trend
Domestic refining capacity is 1.1 MBD while demand
remains below 0.8 MBD
ll f f ddl d ll d
Domestic refining capacity is 1.1 MBD while demand
remains below 0.8 MBD
ll f f ddl d ll d
LOCAL MARKETLOCAL MARKET
 All refineries focus on middle distillate production to
serve local demand
 AEC to open doors for ASEAN communities in 2015
 All refineries focus on middle distillate production to
serve local demand
 AEC to open doors for ASEAN communities in 2015p fp f
40

Today’s Agenda
41

50 Years – A Long Road of Success
Development & Revenue Growth
AGM Award + Board of the Year
+ Best CG + TQC
+ Best CG + TQC
2010
Upgrading + Expansion + Diversification + Oil Price
42

TOP Group Business Structure
100% 100% 55% 100%
PTT 26%J‐Power 19%
100%
30%
Thaioil
(TOP)
Thai Lube Base
(TLB)
Thaioil Power
(TP)
Thaioil Marine
(TM)
P d
Thaioil Ethanol
(TET)
Thai  Paraxylene
(TPX)
100%
30%
Maesod Clean Energy
(MCE)
Capacity :
275,000 barrels/day
Small Power Producer
Program
3‐on‐1 Combined Cycle
Sells Electricity/
Steam to Group
Oil&Chemical Tankers
Capacity :153,000 DWT
Sugarcane Based Ethanol
Capacity : 200,000 lts/day
Padaeng
35%
Mitr Phol 35%Lube Base Oil
Capacity :
Base Oil
270,000 tons/annum
Bitumen
Aromatics Capacity:
Paraxylene
489,000 tons/annum
Mixed Xylene
90,000 tons/annum
Sapthip(SAP)50%
Thaioil Marine
International Pte Ltd.
100%
50%NYK Bulk &
Platformate
1.8 million tons/annum
3 on 1 Combined Cycle
Electricity 118 MW
Steam 168 tons/hour
PTT 20%
56%
400,000 tons/annum
TDAE
65,000 tons/annum
Benzene
177,000 tons/annum
Toluene
144,000 tons/annum
Total
900 000 /
Sapthip(SAP)
Cassava Based Ethanol
50%
Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)21%
Cassava Based Ethanol
C i 400 000 l /d
TOP‐NYK MarineOne
Pte Ltd. (TOP‐NYK)
50%
Energy B.V. 50%
Crude Tankers :VLCC
Capacity :281,000 DWT
BCP 21%Others 58%
Independent Power
(Thailand) (IPT)
Thaioil Energy Services
(TES)
Proceeds the business on
various professional of
management services
PTT 20%
Thaioil 24% 100%
Thappline
(THAP)
9% PTT 31%
Others  60%900,000 tons/annum
Thaioil Solvent
Through TOP Solvent (TS)
100%
1st Independent Power
g
Multi‐product Pipeline
Capacity:26,000 m.lts/y
Through TOP Solvent (TS)
Capacity  :
1st Independent Power
Producer Program
2‐on‐1 Gas‐Fired,
Combined Cycle
Electricity 700 MW
100%80.52%
Solvent distribute
in Thailand
Sak Chaisidhi
(SAKC)
Top Solvent
Vietnam
Solvent distribute
i i
PTT ICT Solutions
(PTT ICT)
PTT Energy Solutions
(PTTES)
Provides engineering
techniqueconsulting
20%
PTT 40%
PTTAR 20%
IRPC 20%
1
PTT Group 80% 20%100,000 tons/annum in Vietnam
( ) technique consulting
services
43

Efficiency
OperationalOperational
ExcellenceExcellence
FlexibilityReliability
44

More Efficiency – Reducing Energy Loss
120
125
CEL Index
(Lower = better)
110
115
105
110
95
100
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H-2011
“Energy and Loss play a vital role in margin especially when oil price is high”
45

More Efficiency – Squeezed Asset
Gasoil Gasoil
108 %
Gasoil Gasoil
360oC
362oC
106 %
Fuel oil Fuel oil
PX IntakePX Intake
“Consistently squeeze the capability of existing asset”
46

Efficiency
47

High Flexibility – Refine New Crude
Driven by high discount to typical crude
Evaluate key severe properties (e.g. TANs, Sulfur)
Identify methodologies for each crude typeIdentify methodologies for each crude type
Implement unconventional crude processing
8
12
USD/BBL Arab Light‐Heavy Differential
4
8
“Moving towards more severe
crude is the key to survive”
0
Jan‐00 Jan‐02 Jan‐04 Jan‐06 Jan‐08 Jan‐10
crude is the key to survive
48

High Flexibility – Refine New Crude
Sources of Crude Products
9%
4%
2%
13%
14% 14%
3% 3%
Far East
Local
LPG
Platformate
Gasoline
Others
12%
19% 19%
16% 16%
Gasoline
Jet
87%
72%
Middle
East Diesel
37% 38%
FO
11% 11%
Q1/10 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q2/10Q2/10Q1/10
“Diversified crude sources while maintaining product yield”
49

High Flexibility – Capture Niche Market
Distillate
Aromatic Extract
Treated Distillate
Aromatic Extract
Purified
(DAE) (TDAE)
What does the market need ?
Cleaner products ?
Higher quality ?Higher quality ?
Specification changes ?
Market Driver
50

Efficiency
51

Improved Reliability – Less Outages
Risk IdentificationFailure diagnosis/DEM
Unconventional crude processing Equipment life assessment
Inspection/
maintenance strategy
Furnace energy
improvementMechanical seal improvement
52

Efficiency
53

Align Strategies by Operation Excellence
Update
MarketMarket
Condition
Monthly
Identify
Margin Gap
Monthly
Quarterly
Checking
Seek
Improvement
Set Target
“Align commercial strategies and refinery operations”
54

Bottom‐up Engagement
Looking Forward – KFALooking Forward KFA
Value Chain
Integration
Enterprise Risk
Management
Innovation
Integration
Reliability
Management
System
Growth
People
ManagementSustainable
Development
Cost
Management
Work Process
Improvement
Productivity
and Efficiency
“C ti l i th th h 5 Y K F A S h ”
Customer
Focus
“Continuously improve the process through 5‐Year Key Focus Area Scheme”
55

TOP Group’s Core Enablement
HPO
CSR CG
Engineering Clean Energyg g gy
Sustaining Green World
56

Ambitious Strategy Evolution
Refinery Flagship Asia Pacific’s Leader
e e y ags p s a a s eade
“Top quartile
profitability”
Return Scale “Top quartile
profitability”
Return Complex Scale Complex
Commodities SpecialtiesCommodities Specialties
Operational Excellence Business Excellence
57

Thank You
pongpun@thaioilgroup.com

Oil and gas thailand 2011 v f

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (9)

En vedette

En vedette (20)

Similaire à Oil and gas thailand 2011 v f

Similaire à Oil and gas thailand 2011 v f (20)

Plus de Sarod Paichayonrittha

Plus de Sarod Paichayonrittha (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Oil and gas thailand 2011 v f