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POWER : DRIVING INDIA BY SUDIPTA SAR
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],AGENDA
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Correlation between GDP & Power generation  Correlations     GDP  POWER GDP Pearson Correlation 1.000   o.396 Sig. (2-tailed)   .958 N 10.000 10 Power Pearson Correlation .396   1.000 Sig. (2-tailed)   .958 N 10 10.000
Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition ,[object Object],[object Object],Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Primary energy consumption per capita
[object Object],Source: World Energy Outlook, 2006; Human Development Report 2007-08, Source: China Electricity Council, China Power Year Book,  Government of India, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation Per Capita Consumption of Electricit y Large investment required to achieve Govt. target of per capita consumption of 1,000 KWh by 2012  Comparison with China India - Low penetration and underserved market India China Installed capacity in 2006 (GW) 132 622 Per capita consumption (per kWh) 618 1,684 Capacity growth rate over the past 6 years 4.4% 11.8% Capacity addition in past 6  years (GW) 30 303
POWER DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (BU) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Widening demand supply gap Inability of Centre/ State to meet capacity addition Power sector reforms Huge opportunity for private sector participation
$2,300 Bn  $1,900 Bn High Investment Demand Scenario (3%) Low Investment Demand Scenario (2%) Historic Future Private Capital Mobilized in Power Sector Gap covered by public financing,  self - financing, donor funding,  and rationing. Total Power Investment ($Billion) Cumulative Sum ($Bn) Source:  : World Bank, IEA, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Emerging Markets Group Financing required for the Power Sector in India 1990 - 2020 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Indian market environment  –  Demand for Power Investment - a large Growing Gap?
SOURCE : IDEAs workshop Delhi Major Stages in Electricity Sector NTPC 1975-90   I ncreased Access & Federal intervention Growth 1950–75   Major Growth, Public Ownership  IPP Era 1991-98  Private Power Projects E Act  2003  Competition WB Model  1996-2002 Orissa &  others
Power is a concurrent subject Multiple stakeholders with different functions  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SEB’s (30) Central public utilities  * ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],COMPLEX INDUSTRY STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS Central government 30 State  governments Public utilities  * * * * * * * * Private sector
20th Dec 2005 IDEAs workshop Delhi SOURCES Competition in Power (Bulk / Retail )
Conventional View of the Industry Structure
The Emerging View -  anchored in competition
 
THERMAL POWER ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India Hydro-Electricity
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999) Natural Gas Gas Authority of India Limited India’s Gas Pipelines
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US WIND ENERGY Denmark US
[object Object],Nuclear Power: The Present Status
India has been pursuing a 3-stage Nuclear Power Program. The first stage  - Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and associated fuel cycle facilities.  The second sta ge  - Fast breeder reactors (FBRs) backed by reprocessing plants and plutonium based fuel fabrication plants.  The third stage   - thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Utilization of thorium.
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POWERING INDIA'S FUTURE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE COUNTRY'S ENERGY SECTOR

  • 1. POWER : DRIVING INDIA BY SUDIPTA SAR
  • 2.
  • 4. Correlation between GDP & Power generation Correlations GDP POWER GDP Pearson Correlation 1.000 o.396 Sig. (2-tailed) .958 N 10.000 10 Power Pearson Correlation .396 1.000 Sig. (2-tailed) .958 N 10 10.000
  • 5.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. $2,300 Bn $1,900 Bn High Investment Demand Scenario (3%) Low Investment Demand Scenario (2%) Historic Future Private Capital Mobilized in Power Sector Gap covered by public financing, self - financing, donor funding, and rationing. Total Power Investment ($Billion) Cumulative Sum ($Bn) Source: : World Bank, IEA, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Emerging Markets Group Financing required for the Power Sector in India 1990 - 2020 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Indian market environment – Demand for Power Investment - a large Growing Gap?
  • 10. SOURCE : IDEAs workshop Delhi Major Stages in Electricity Sector NTPC 1975-90 I ncreased Access & Federal intervention Growth 1950–75 Major Growth, Public Ownership IPP Era 1991-98 Private Power Projects E Act 2003 Competition WB Model 1996-2002 Orissa & others
  • 11.
  • 12. 20th Dec 2005 IDEAs workshop Delhi SOURCES Competition in Power (Bulk / Retail )
  • 13. Conventional View of the Industry Structure
  • 14. The Emerging View - anchored in competition
  • 15.  
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999) Natural Gas Gas Authority of India Limited India’s Gas Pipelines
  • 19. In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US WIND ENERGY Denmark US
  • 20.
  • 21. India has been pursuing a 3-stage Nuclear Power Program. The first stage - Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and associated fuel cycle facilities. The second sta ge - Fast breeder reactors (FBRs) backed by reprocessing plants and plutonium based fuel fabrication plants. The third stage - thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Utilization of thorium.