Luck, lean and letting go
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Slides I gave in a talk about how luck and chance play more of a role in our business lives than we all care to acknowledge
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LUCK, LEAN AND LETTING GO
Playing the percentage game in product development
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Luck, lean and letting go
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- 6. “General agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not – and few of them do – are playing a game of chance.” [x] fluxx
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- 22. "The alternate name we came up with for 500 Startups was 'fail factory,‘…... "We're here trying to 'manufacture fail' on a regular basis, and we think that's how you learn. Getting used to that, bouncing back from that, being able to figure out what people hate and turn that into what people love...if you're not willing to take the risk of failing and not experience failure, you're never going to figure out what the right path is to success." [x] fluxx
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- 24. “…….people don’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in heir lives, there is a reason for this, the world doesn’t want to recognise it either” [x] fluxx
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Notes de l'éditeur
- What is luck – luck is the random, the unknown, the events and variables within and outside life, over which we have no controlCome ot thin ko fit – greater / lesser extend - luck shapes our lives
- We don’tlike to accept that life is random – hate the thought that we could be the one that gets picked out of the herd
- Religion way of rationalising randomness – by Cocoon the mind in plausibility
- our brains are so good, at spinning such convincing narratives around what are essentially random eventsDanielkahnemannSystem 1 – impetuous, quick, emotional fast side of our brandssystem 2 – considered, rational slowWhen we let system 1 work without system 2 – safe, orderly, believable view of life – but one whch doesn’t necessarily conform to the reality of any given situation
- Tend to under estimate the role luck plays in our livesActively choose not to see luck in our lives
- Darwin -
- Even the month when you’re born – an event over which we have little control – we now know is a key determinant of life success
- Luck is this fascinating concept – Aspects to the way we live and work which are no necessarily based on face
- this blindness to luck / product developemnt / lean methodology
- Conditions of extreme uncertaintyWe have no way of really knowing – whether a customer actually wants our productOur system 1 has overtaken our ability to rationally consider the endeavour in which we’re engagedWe act as is luck isn’t a variable - as if we are in control
- What lean methodology does – does the opposite - forces us to stop using system 1 and engage system 2Here’s ericreis – the father of lean startup thinking talking about the movementActually from a longer – 15 min presentation he gave at
- Not about having better ideas – have a better processLean gives us as many chances of being lucky as possibleby giving us a flexbileframework in which to change course with our projects – in a methodical, controlled wayTo build on the learning that the variables we couldn’t see have taught us“if we can increase our time between pivots, we can increase our odds of success, before we run out of money”
- Instead of building complete,finsihed products – which of course they never are – maximum productInstead the process becomes centered around getting a product in front of our customers as soon as possiblechanging and iterating that productIf we do this – in effect engaged system 2 - we quieten our system 1 – instead of guessing – we have real world data – did customer like it – did they buy it?
- May be thinking this sounds risky seems like gambling – but in actual fact – it’s the oppositeThe gamble is to believe we’ve found everythign, we’ve engineered out luck and randomnessGoogle, facebook, amazon and others explode off the back of this thinking – starting to look like a much safer way of developing productsShow you a couple of instances where this sort of thinking has
- Billy beane’s case he was stopping the partial reliance on luck – and instead, giving himself the greatest chance of winning, by increasing his odds of success – as “card counters, at the black jack table”Reference is actually an oblique nod to another sector which has adopted this thinking which we all have a little more awareness of since 2008
- Chap called Edward ThorpHe was the first person to develop an odds based system to win at blackjackMuch of his theory, became the basis of the hedge fund industry
- Even napolean – played the odds
- We can teach the processes, the methodlogiesKey psychologial pin we need to
- Letting go is how we get there – we accept failure as a natural part of our life and work
- 500 startups – one of the largest and most successful technology incubators in the US – they call themselves a “fail factory”
- Have to get more comfortable failing – and critically – absorbing the lessons of that failurenot wallowing in it – but understanding where the failure came from, so we can improve in the future