Measures of Central Tendency: Mean, Median and Mode
Team 621Week 6 Hacking for Diplomacy
1. Team 621
Fatal Journey: Improving Data on Missing or Perished Refugees
TEAM
Anton Apostolatos [Software]
Leonard Bronner [Data]
Asad Khaliq [Product]
Quentin Perrot [Research]
SPONSOR & MENTOR
Bureau of Population, Refugees,
and Migration [Lyric Doolan, Rebecca Alvarado
and Evan Stewart]
Paul Narain
10INTERVIEWS
COMPLETED
DESCRIPTION
Collecting and sourcing missing persons data and identifying the deceased during
crisis situations, to better determine if a person reported missing has perished. This
will allow us to contact family members -- strengthening the bonds of family and
community and instilling humanitarian advocacy and respect for the dignity of life.
TOTAL: 57
2. A high percentage of bodies of refugees who perished crossing the
Mediterranean are unidentified and buried in unmarked graves, with
loved ones given no closure.
1,011,712 arrivals in the EU through the Mediterranean in 2015
3770 persons perished at sea in the Mediterranean in 2015
35% of remains identified in the Mediterranean states
12 out of 55 headstones buried between October and December 2015 in a Lesvos, Greece cemetery were
marked
"Many shipwreck victims are never recovered, but about 1,500 have been brought to Italy since 2013. So far,
just over 200 have been identified."
… because there’s a missing link.
(22 of 24 individuals identified after relative outreach complete in a landmark study)
3. Data
Refugee Trust & Buy-In
Number on
t-shirt
Single,
non-ID
check-in
Clearinghouse
safe deposit box
Clearinghouse periodic,
discrete check-in
Continuous state
tracking
Pre-trip inform
authorities
The box of consumption
ID info on t-
shirt
Creating the Link
4. Refugees
DeadAlive
Guidemakers
Refugees family &
friends
NGO Forensics
ICRC
(Tidball-Binz)
ICMP
(Parsons)
NGO
ICRC
(Federica, Kirsty)
IOM
(Kelly, Tara)
UNHCR
(Guido, Iosto)
Local Authorities
Police ForensicsMaritime Authorities
FRONTEX Coast Guard
NATO OP.
ENDEAVOR
EU NAVFOR
MED
NGO Humanitarian Fleets
MSF STC
MOAS
(Sweetnam)
Ministry of the Interior
MRCC
Smugglers Saboteur
Gatekeeper
Critical buy-in
Pressure
Coordination
Direct order
DataDirectiveCooperation
Cooperation
Cooperation
Contact
Contact
Contact
Info
Contact
5. Customer Discovery
Hypothesis 1
Refugees are willing to disclose identifying information if it can
give their families closure in the event of their death
(ICRC, first responders - water, law enforcement)
Experiments - Discuss use of conceptual dogtags containing
phone numbers of loved ones
Andreas Kleiser [Director of Policy, International Committee for Missing Persons]
Ida Jeng [Global Communication and Strategy, REFUNITE]
Paul Narain [Hoover Fellow]
Karen Ferguson [Deputy Director, International Rescue Committee]
Samuel [Eritrean Refugee]
Results - The trust concern will vary extremely from case-to-
case. Samuel, an Eritrean refugee, rejected trust as an issue
(saying he had nothing to hide) and instead expressed practical
concerns around our solution (highly constrained in Libya).
We must more finely understand trust concerns per route and
type of person, and deployment concerns per route.
Hypothesis 2
Law enforcement agencies will be able to use this information to
identify found bodies
(Law Enforcement Agencies, ICRC, ICMP)
Laila Soudi [Critical Research Co-ordinator, Stanford]
Frederick Rustler [Organizes Restart Network]
Pete Sweetnam [CEO, MOAS]
Eric Herr [Water Purification / Mortuary Affairs]
Experiments - Discuss how conceptual dogtags used by refugees
containing phone numbers of loved ones might be used by authorities
[MVP -- t-shirt with sharpied phone number]
Results - Primary concern is not (currently) whether they are
able -- in some cases, they are not willing to use this information
to identify found bodies, due to misaligned priorities.
Organizations with incentive to use information to identify found
bodies may not have jurisdiction to do so.
6. Notes for each Mission Model Canvas section are
in the “slide notes” section
Key Partners Key Activities
Key Resources
Value Propositions Buy-in & Support Beneficiaries/Stakeholders
Deployment
Mission Budget / Costs Mission Achievement / Success Factors
Local authorities: Greek Coast
Guard, Greek Police,
Turkish coast guard, Turkish law
enforcement
Humanitarian Fleet: MSF,
MOAS, SeaWatch
Large NGOs: UNHCR, Doctors
of the World, Red Crescent
Frontex (Operation Triton),
NATO Operation Endeavor,
EU’s NAVFORMED (Operation
Sophia)
PRM: Western Hemisphere
Office
Refugee support groups and
guidemakers
National Ministries of the Interior
What problem?
For refugees and their families:
Refugees are unable to know what
happened to their families
For Trace the Face:
Part of the ICRC’s mission is to connect
people with their families, but currently it
is being asymmetrically served by only
allowing survivors to find value in their
service
For IOM, UNHCR:
Accurate, reliable data on where
refugees come from mission statements
+ strategic/policy planning)
Local Forensics Agents
Not able to identify bodies easily
because lack of prior knowledge about
deceased.
Value?
This will allow organizations to contact the next
of kin of the deceased. Refugees will achieve
closure about what happened to their families.
Trace the face will piggy-back off buy-in with
local authorities and be able to assist in
serving those who have passed away as well.
IOM will use the information that is gained
through friends and family in order to update
their database. For forensics agents, this data
makes it easy to identify bodies.
Families of Refugees
(Eastern Med. and
Central Med. Routes)
Tracing Department
(ICRC): Kirsty McDonald,
Federica Riccardi
IOM: Leonard Doyle, Julia
Black
UNHCR: Iosto Ibba,
Guido Vittorio
Local Forensics Agents:
Penelope Miniati
Convincing refugees of additional benefit
of working with us
Convincing local authorities to use the
information that they are being provided
to contact next of kin.
Cleaning data before it is used
Updating information on missing refugees
(IOM, ICRC and people looking: NGOs,
refugees)
Communicating with families in a
respectful and ethical manner
Buy-in from refugees will be achieved through
guide makers, who will influence the refugees
and word of mouth.
on-the-ground influencers (small grassroots
NGOs) and through “mobile commons”
Buy in for local forensics office and local
police will be achieved through pressure from
NGOs and the Council of Europe onto
Ministries of the Interior that force the local
authorities to act. governmental mandate and
by helping them easier identify deceased.
Relationship with PRM will be supplied
through mentor
IOMs Missing Migrants Project
ICRC Trace the Face database
UNHCR: Syria Regional Refugee
Response database
Forensics agent resources (time)
Hellenic coast guard’s data
Refugees will need to be convinced before they start
the sea crossing.
Deployment will be done either through IOM, UNHCR
and ICRC due to their gravitas in the field - if our
solution ends up being for on-the-ground NGOs.
Key partnerships with existing on the ground
practitioners, integrating with existing practices
Smaller nimble NGOs or more daring anti-
establishment NGOs willing to help refugees travel
Mission Achievement: Has connected with a friend or family member thought lost or has received the information that a
friend or family member has passed away. (1) To provide an in-depth analysis of available data on migrant deaths, and more
specifically, collect more accurate “Country Source” data and (2) to update the challenges the community identifying/tracing
missing migrants faces to be shared with other crisis regions. Reconnect family links. Identify corpses more accurately, more
quickly and more cheaply - in complete accordance with laws
Metrics: Indicator variable whether knows if friends or family is dead, number of missing migrants with correct country /
number of missing migrants, Number of families reconnected, time and money spent per identification, identified migrants /
total dead migrants seen
The budget comes from organizations that are on the ground (NGOs, UNHCR)
but also from other beneficiaries such as the State Dept. and European
Governments
Data capture and information retrieval
Data capture hardware, servers, initial awareness and distribution
Local authorities
Guidemakers
First responders on the water
(MSF, Moas, Coast guards):
Miriam Lafferty, Mark Gordon
7. Products &
Services
Gain Creators
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer Jobs
Migrants: Samuel, 22-year old refugee who crossed the Mediterranean from Libya, waiting for his brother and fiance to join
● Uncertainty of the stages of
transit, with no guarantees of
safety
● Uncertainty of communication
with friends & family
● Get across the
Mediterranean to
safety
● Make sure their family
knows of their fate
● Assurance that family members will
have closure in the event of their
death
● Families will be
contacted by local
authorities, based on
data provided by
members that are
found as deceased.
● Local authorities reach out to family
members; this gives migrants the peace of
mind that their families will know their fate
● Knowledge that family will be notified in
case something goes wrong on their
journey.
Customer Archetype: Eritrean, 22 years old, has family in Eritrea
● Sufficiently motivated to try and escape a zone of conflict or persecution, despite unclear potential for success and no assurances of safety
● Uses personal network to understand how to pursue Mediterranean crossing
● Psychologically under significant stress and no freedom of movement under smuggler control
● Has no access to phones, with minimal contact with family across months
● Often using all or most of their wealth as a last ditch effort to ensure safety, all-or-nothing approach
● Often don’t speak the language of the countries they are embarking from (in transit phase) or the country they are travelling to
8. Products &
Services
Gain Creators
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer Jobs
Migrants’ Families
● Uncertainty of the stages of
transit, with no guarantees of
safety
● Uncertainty of communication
with friends & family
● No way of knowing what future
awaits them even if they reach
safer shores, or how they will be
processed
● Assured transit from
conflict to safety
● Keeping family &
friends while travelling
● Ensuring quality of life
upon arrival to a safer
region through
personal networks
● Ways to contact and stay in touch
with friends and family making the
journey alongside them
● Wanting family to know they are
safe when they are traveling.
● Higher potential for a smooth
resettlement and integration
● Families will be
contacted by local
authorities, based on
data provided by
members that are
found as deceased.
● Certainty and closure about family
member's passing.
● Receive the body of family members for
burial.
● Knowledge that family will be notified in
case something goes wrong on their
journey.
Samuel’s brother and fiance, who waited to hear from Samuel for months and are now waiting for legal authorization to join him
● Motivated to try and escape a zone of conflict or persecution, despite unclear potential for success and no assurances of safety
● Psychologically under significant stress
● Often using all or most of their wealth as a last ditch effort to ensure safety, all-or-nothing approach
● Often don’t speak the language of the country that they live in
● Close-knit family -- willing to risk their safety for the rest of the group, desire to know of family member’s fate
9. Products &
Services
Gain Creators
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer Jobs
Local Forensics Agents (Morris Tidball-Binz, Penelope Miniati)
● Lack of communication with “the other
side” -- the families or loved ones of
refugees who they can connect with
forensics data to successfully match +
reconnect
● Have to work with local external
stakeholders such as fishermen to
inefficiently gather data on missing
migrants
● Successfully identify the
origin, identity, and
demographic of missing or
perished persons
● Connect results of
technology based forensics
with other data sources to
match + reconnect perished
persons
● Give authorities information
on origin and identity of
found persons
● Better collaboration with authorities,
who can now be provided with
contact details to link each body to
an origin/destination
● Better coordination with
stakeholders such as UNHCR, who
desire more accurate data on
incoming migrants● Direct phone or
communication line to
a deceased
individual’s family or
loved ones
● Easier information gathering, would
reduce necessity to talk to outside
stakeholders and provide greater certainty
of body’s identity
● Much simpler and easier connection with
deceased person’s family or loved ones
● Easily readable contact information on
body/clothing of perished persons
● Contact information can provide
demographic data to be shared with IOM,
UNHCR
Customer Archetypes
● Highly educated; undergraduate or graduate degree in science or forensic investigation as well as certification in the field
● Often graduated as a doctor
● Interested in human rights, humanitarian investigations
● They push for forensic anthropology and forensic medical sciences applied to humanitarian advocacy
10. Products &
Services
Gain Creators
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer Jobs
ICRC Protection and Tracing Officers
● Local authorities lack the expertise, networks
and resources to increase chance of
identification
● There is a lack of interest; investigations
sometimes do not attempt to establish identity
when they are “irregular migrants”
● Compassion fatigue with death count rising
● Overcome the complex
nature of the search for
family members
● Collaboratively interface
with other organizations
on the ground (e.g. IOM
field agents) to address
inbound requests
● Make it as easy as
possible for family
looking for family to
publish their information
● Reconnect families with their
loves ones, even if that means
with their body
● Directly reach out to
families using
identifying information
● Easier method of identification
means ‘interest’ is irrelevant;
authorities pursue identification
regardless of migrant status
● Expertise is less important,
increasing rate of identification
● Connecting more refugees to their
families
Customer Archetypes
● Organization
○ ICRC mandate is to find + connect missing people and families
○ Facilitates migrants finding loved ones by collecting information about whether someone is
looking for you and allowing you to publish your photo + contact info
○ The organization must navigate strict data protection regulations in Europe
○ Work with the National Red Cross and Red Crescent societies to keep information on file
that is not allowed to be publicly retransmitted
● Personal
○ Workers typically have bachelor degrees and work experience,
>30 yrs old
○ Often speaks more than one official ICRC language
(English/French) such as Arabic
○ Very hands on approach to work. Needs to be able to interface
with families that are searching for missing people.
○ Emotionally stable -> due to complex nature of material
○ Want to collaborate with other stakeholders -> IOM and UNHCR
11. Products &
Services
Gain Creators
Pain Relievers
Gains
Pains
Customer Jobs
IOM and UNHCR Data Analysts
● Diverse data sources with varying
regularity and reliability (i.e. not
possible to ask the deceased.
Boats might completely disappear.)
● Extensive collaboration required
between field agents, data analysts,
and external stakeholders to verify
and collect data
● Collect accurate, reliable
data on migrant journeys
and missing/perished
migrants
● Publish reports based on
this data to fulfill
mandates and inform
policy, strategic decisions
● Use data to strengthen
humanitarian advocacy
● More data to inform strategy
and policy, and strengthen
humanitarian advocacy
● More data leading to higher
coverage of potentially
missing migrant population
● IOM and UNHCR
gets information
about deceased
refugees and where
they are from.
● If a boat has capsized and disappeared
without anyones knowledge. Then the
identification of bodies from those boats,
will allow for more complete information
for UNHCR and IOM.
● Sourced information from other connected
organizations who have data on missing
persons and growing their database to
produce more matches
● IOM and UNHCR will get some
personalized information from the
migrants that are found - for better
database.
Customer Archetypes
● Organization
○ IOM, UNHCR mandates to strengthen humanitarian advocacy
○ The organization must navigate strict data protection regulations in Europe
○ IOM mandate focus on data collection and provision
● Personal
○ Workers typically have bachelor degrees and work experience,
>25 yrs old
○ Need to be able to manage extensive lists of contacts, maintain
positive relationships with each and corroborate information
○ Emotionally stable -> due to complex nature of material
○ Want to collaborate with other stakeholders and each other
○ Comfort with a degree of uncertainty due to irregular nature of
work despite data/stats background which demands rigor
12. Buy in / Support from Gatekeepers
Refugee Support Groups
Maurice Stierl [Watch the Med; UCDavis Professor]
Frederick Rustler [Organizes Restart Network]
Samuel [Eritrean refugee]
Refugees trust these groups, and so will use recommended solutions
Create images with proposed solution (e.g. diagram explaining
how/where to sharpie on your clothing/person)
Propagate images on Refugee Support Groups on Facebook,
informal WhatsApp groups and directly through influencers
Image/solution organically propagates through support networks
Becomes accepted practice, establishing trust (for us/sponsor)
Solution is recommended by on-the-ground orgs in contact with
migrants
… potentially opening the door for higher fidelity solutions that allow
increased data collection and/or real time tracking using pre-
established trust
National Ministries of the Interior
Simon Robins [University of York, Mediterranean Missing Project]
Andreas Kleiser [Policy at International Commission on Missing Persons[]
Emma Bonino [Ex.Minister of Foreign Affairs, Italy]
Forensic examiners begin to find dogtags on found bodies, and
refer data to local authorities
Local authorities have data (... but may not use it?)
Pressure applied to policymakers from NGOs, media, public
opinion, etc, to use this information to reconnect as per
humanitarian laws and respect for dignity of human life
Local authorities begin to search for identifying dogtags,
creating standard operating procedure, using this information to
reconnect bodies with their loved ones to provide closure
...potentially push for greater database robustness and sharing
identifying across locations and organizations
Time
13. GET
KEEP
GROW
Guidemakers’
endorsement
Prove that our method helps families
Become routine for journey via
greater influencer and institutional
support
Capitalizeonrefugeetrustto
expandtoaddtech/tracking
Refugeesuse
NGO/Councilof
Europepressure
Ministryof
Interiorcommand
Localauthorities
use
Expandtodifferentlocalesin
theMediterranean
14. MVP
What - sharpied t-shirt
Why - low-cost, more easily
deployable, less trust and incentive
barrier, less legal issues
Who - refugees, people creating
guides, migrant families