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Global Trends in Reducing Vehicular Emissions




	

    Anup Bandivadekar
	

    September 29th, 2011
WHO estimated 1.34 million premature deaths from outdoor
                 air pollution in 2008.




                                                     Slide 2
What pollutants are of concern?

      Greenhouse
        Gases
                               Haze
- CO2, Methane, Black
  Carbon, N2O, HFC
                                     Ozone
                                  (VOC + NOx)

  Particles (PM10/PM2.5)
                                             Toxics
 NOx, SOx, VOC, ammonia                   - Diesel particles
                                          - Benzene
                                          - Heavy metals
            Carbon monoxide
                        (CO)
                                                               3
                                                               	

      Michael Walsh"
Comprehensive approach should treat vehicles
          and fuels as a system

  Reducing fuel consumption
  –  Policy instruments include fuel economy
     standards, fee and rebate schemes etc.
  Reducing criteria air pollutants
  –  Policy instruments include new vehicle emission
     standards (Euro V/VI and/or US Tier II/III), and in-
     use emission control strategies
  Improving fuel quality
  –  Reducing carbon content of fuels
  –  Reducing sulfur content of fuels to near zero levels
     (<10 ppm)
                                                            Slide 4
Comparison of passenger vehicle fuel economy standards
                                        270!                                                   Solid dots and lines: historical performance!                           US-LDV!
                                                                                               Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets !
GRAMS CO2 PER KILOMETER NORMALIZED TO




                                                                                               Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets!                          California-LDV!
                                        250!                                                   Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal!
                                                                                                                                                                       Canada-LDV!

                                                                                                                                                                       EU!
                                        230!
                                                                                                                                                                       Japan!
           NEDC TEST CYCLE!




                                        210!                                                                                                                           China!

                                                                                                                                                                       S. Korea!
                                        190!
                                                                                                                                                                       Australia!

                                        170!

                                        150!
                                                                                            India
                                        130!

                                                                                                                                      China 2020: 117!       US 2025:107!
                                        110!
                                                                                                                                          Japan 2020: 105!

                                                                                                                                         EU 2020: 95!
                                         90!
                                           2000!                2005!                  2010!                 2015!                  2020!                 2025!
                                          !"#$%&'()*+$,)-./,$-/0/1,+$.)+23'(/$0//,$+1/()-'24$56$'(1378'(.$2,&/-$67/3$,9:/+;$,&/$,)-./,$<'33$=/$32</-4$$
                                          !>#$?@$)(8$%)()8)$3'.&,A87,9$B/&'13/+$'(1378/$3'.&,A12CC/-1')3$B/&'13/+4$
                                                                                                                                                                                Slide 5
                                                                                                                                                                                      	

                                                      http://www.theicct.org/passenger-vehicles/global-pv-standards-update/"
Regulatory landscape of heavy duty vehicle fuel
                         economy standards
Country/    Regulation
                            2010       2011      2012       2013       2014    2015     2016       2017       2018
Region        Type
                                                                               Regulation implemented starting MY
               Fuel
 Japan                                                                                        2015
             economy

 United     GHG/Fuel      Standard                                       Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
                                   Final rule
 States     efficiency    proposal                                      ( mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)

            GHG/Fuel                Standard
 Canada                                      Final rule                 Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
            efficiency              proposal

                           Test   Industry                                     Regulation implemented starting MY
              Fuel                         Standard
  China                procedure standard           Final rule                                2015
           consumption                     proposal
                        finalized proposal
                                                              Test
European                                                               Mandatory efficiency reporting and
               GHG         Technical studies              procedure
 Union                                                                     regulatory development
                                                           finalized
                                                                                                Additional reqs. for
            End-user
                       Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors and existing trailers and
California purchase
                           trailers (MY 2011+)                 trailers (<MY 2010)              reefers (<MY 2010)
          requirements



                                                                                                                     6
New vehicle emission standards are getting tougher
   Exhaust emissions standards
    –  Tighter standards
       •  Euro 6/VI: PM and NOx aftertreatment on all diesels (DPF
          +SCR)
       •  By 2020, EU motorcycle emissions down to Euro 5 level
       •  California LEV III/ US Tier III: SULEV average by 2022
    –  Improved test cycle, cold start measurement, particle
       number limit, increased durability

   Evaporative emissions
    –  Whole vehicle diurnal plus hot soak standards – near
       zero emission expected from all vehicles including E10
       vehicles
    –  On-board Refueling Vapor Recovery (ORVR)
                                                                     Slide 7
Much cleaner diesel vehicles are possible,
     through stricter standards and/or retrofits.




DPFs are typically installed on new diesel passenger vehicles with Euro V
standards and on heavy duty vehicles with Euro VI standards, but can be
retrofitted to older diesels provided <50 ppm sulfur fuel is available.

                                                                      Slide 8
                                                                            	

             Cleaire Advanced Emission Controls LLC"
Manufacturers responsible for in use emissions
over full range of real world driving conditions.

  In-use compliance tests
  –  Detection of type speci c design related defects or
     inadequate maintenance instructions
  Strengthening of on-board diagnostics
  –  Frequency of monitoring: In use performance ratio
     (IUPR) monitoring
  Periodic exhaust inspection
  –  High opacity as measured on snap acceleration
     test may indicate engine malfunction and
     increased emissions of air pollutants, primarily
     unburned fuel hydrocarbons or soot particles.
                                                        Slide 9
Petrol and Diesel Certi cation Levels




     Emissions certification values for +600 model passenger cars in Germany, model years
     2003 (Euro 3), 2007 (Euro 4) and 2010 (Euro 5). Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA),
     Germany, 2011
Emission reductions must be achieved in real world driving:
 e.g. Poor SCR performance at low exhaust temperatures




Not-To-Exceed Limit provides a way to limit off-cycle emissions
                                                           Slide 11
                                                                  	

           Joint Research Center (JRC), 2011"
Roadmap for the next decade is missing in India
  Auto Fuel Policy of 2003 recommended revision
   every ve years
  –  Need to continue to treat vehicle and fuel as a system,
     fuel quality improvements critical for next phase of
     standards

  Long term roadmap needed quickly to give
   industry adequate lead-time
  –  Technology already in the market, but on limited
     models in India

  One Country, One Fuel, One Regulation!
  –  Availability of <50 ppm sulfur fuel countrywide opens
     up the possibility of leapfrogging to Euro VI standards
  –  10 ppm sulfur fuels needed countrywide eventually for
     optimal performance of after-treatment devices
Anup Bandivadekar



International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
                  1225 Eye St. NW
                      Suite 900
                Washington D.C. 20005

                  anup “at” theicct.org

                 http://www.theicct.org/




                                                       Slide 13

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Global trends in reducing vehicular emissions

  • 1. Global Trends in Reducing Vehicular Emissions Anup Bandivadekar September 29th, 2011
  • 2. WHO estimated 1.34 million premature deaths from outdoor air pollution in 2008. Slide 2
  • 3. What pollutants are of concern? Greenhouse Gases Haze - CO2, Methane, Black Carbon, N2O, HFC Ozone (VOC + NOx) Particles (PM10/PM2.5) Toxics NOx, SOx, VOC, ammonia - Diesel particles - Benzene - Heavy metals Carbon monoxide (CO) 3   Michael Walsh"
  • 4. Comprehensive approach should treat vehicles and fuels as a system   Reducing fuel consumption –  Policy instruments include fuel economy standards, fee and rebate schemes etc.   Reducing criteria air pollutants –  Policy instruments include new vehicle emission standards (Euro V/VI and/or US Tier II/III), and in- use emission control strategies   Improving fuel quality –  Reducing carbon content of fuels –  Reducing sulfur content of fuels to near zero levels (<10 ppm) Slide 4
  • 5. Comparison of passenger vehicle fuel economy standards 270! Solid dots and lines: historical performance! US-LDV! Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets ! GRAMS CO2 PER KILOMETER NORMALIZED TO Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets! California-LDV! 250! Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal! Canada-LDV! EU! 230! Japan! NEDC TEST CYCLE! 210! China! S. Korea! 190! Australia! 170! 150! India 130! China 2020: 117! US 2025:107! 110! Japan 2020: 105! EU 2020: 95! 90! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! !"#$%&'()*+$,)-./,$-/0/1,+$.)+23'(/$0//,$+1/()-'24$56$'(1378'(.$2,&/-$67/3$,9:/+;$,&/$,)-./,$<'33$=/$32</-4$$ !>#$?@$)(8$%)()8)$3'.&,A87,9$B/&'13/+$'(1378/$3'.&,A12CC/-1')3$B/&'13/+4$ Slide 5   http://www.theicct.org/passenger-vehicles/global-pv-standards-update/"
  • 6. Regulatory landscape of heavy duty vehicle fuel economy standards Country/ Regulation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Region Type Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Japan 2015 economy United GHG/Fuel Standard Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 Final rule States efficiency proposal ( mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016) GHG/Fuel Standard Canada Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 efficiency proposal Test Industry Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Standard China procedure standard Final rule 2015 consumption proposal finalized proposal Test European Mandatory efficiency reporting and GHG Technical studies procedure Union regulatory development finalized Additional reqs. for End-user Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors and existing trailers and California purchase trailers (MY 2011+) trailers (<MY 2010) reefers (<MY 2010) requirements 6
  • 7. New vehicle emission standards are getting tougher   Exhaust emissions standards –  Tighter standards •  Euro 6/VI: PM and NOx aftertreatment on all diesels (DPF +SCR) •  By 2020, EU motorcycle emissions down to Euro 5 level •  California LEV III/ US Tier III: SULEV average by 2022 –  Improved test cycle, cold start measurement, particle number limit, increased durability   Evaporative emissions –  Whole vehicle diurnal plus hot soak standards – near zero emission expected from all vehicles including E10 vehicles –  On-board Refueling Vapor Recovery (ORVR) Slide 7
  • 8. Much cleaner diesel vehicles are possible, through stricter standards and/or retrofits. DPFs are typically installed on new diesel passenger vehicles with Euro V standards and on heavy duty vehicles with Euro VI standards, but can be retrofitted to older diesels provided <50 ppm sulfur fuel is available. Slide 8   Cleaire Advanced Emission Controls LLC"
  • 9. Manufacturers responsible for in use emissions over full range of real world driving conditions.   In-use compliance tests –  Detection of type speci c design related defects or inadequate maintenance instructions   Strengthening of on-board diagnostics –  Frequency of monitoring: In use performance ratio (IUPR) monitoring   Periodic exhaust inspection –  High opacity as measured on snap acceleration test may indicate engine malfunction and increased emissions of air pollutants, primarily unburned fuel hydrocarbons or soot particles. Slide 9
  • 10. Petrol and Diesel Certi cation Levels Emissions certification values for +600 model passenger cars in Germany, model years 2003 (Euro 3), 2007 (Euro 4) and 2010 (Euro 5). Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA), Germany, 2011
  • 11. Emission reductions must be achieved in real world driving: e.g. Poor SCR performance at low exhaust temperatures Not-To-Exceed Limit provides a way to limit off-cycle emissions Slide 11   Joint Research Center (JRC), 2011"
  • 12. Roadmap for the next decade is missing in India   Auto Fuel Policy of 2003 recommended revision every ve years –  Need to continue to treat vehicle and fuel as a system, fuel quality improvements critical for next phase of standards   Long term roadmap needed quickly to give industry adequate lead-time –  Technology already in the market, but on limited models in India   One Country, One Fuel, One Regulation! –  Availability of <50 ppm sulfur fuel countrywide opens up the possibility of leapfrogging to Euro VI standards –  10 ppm sulfur fuels needed countrywide eventually for optimal performance of after-treatment devices
  • 13. Anup Bandivadekar International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) 1225 Eye St. NW Suite 900 Washington D.C. 20005 anup “at” theicct.org http://www.theicct.org/ Slide 13