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Changing	
  the	
  energy	
  capacity	
  por/olio	
  of	
  the	
  na2on	
  




  “No	
  one	
  has	
  done	
  what	
  we	
  are	
  doing	
  before.	
  	
  Ever.	
  	
  
There	
  is	
  no	
  blueprint	
  to	
  take	
  delivery	
  of	
  and	
  execute	
  on.	
  
                       We	
  are	
  crea2ng	
  it	
  as	
  we	
  act.”	
  




              “Nothing	
  builds	
  power	
  like	
  winning.”	
  
Anecdotal	
  Strategies	
  for	
  Effec2ve	
  Movement	
  Building	
  


•    What	
  is	
  the	
  specific,	
  discrete	
  goal	
  or	
  desired	
  outcome?	
  
      –  And	
  how	
  is	
  success	
  determined?	
  	
  Accountability?	
  
      –  Will	
  it	
  alone	
  achieve	
  the	
  desired	
  impact?	
  	
  Consequences	
  of	
  failure?	
  
•    Who	
  are	
  the	
  decision	
  makers	
  that	
  can	
  deliver	
  that	
  outcome?	
  
      –  And	
  what	
  are	
  the	
  specific	
  criteria	
  and	
  constraints	
  of	
  the	
  decision	
  making?	
  
      –  Timeline	
  
•    What	
  is	
  the	
  process	
  and	
  context	
  within	
  which	
  the	
  decision	
  will	
  be	
  made?	
  
      –  Who’s	
  with	
  you?	
  	
  Who’s	
  against	
  you?	
  Elected?	
  Appointed?	
  Anointed?	
  
      –  Public	
  opinion?	
  (not	
  anecdotal,	
  but	
  measurable	
  snapshot),	
  messengers	
  
•    What	
  are	
  your	
  available	
  resources?	
  
      –  Funding	
  (promised,	
  likely,	
  in	
  the	
  bank)	
  
      –  Partners,	
  staff	
  
      –  Talent,	
  skills,	
  access,	
  experience	
  
•    Are	
  you	
  sure?	
  
      –  Can	
  you	
  deliver	
  your	
  core	
  strategy	
  in	
  one	
  sentence?	
  
•    Now…What	
  is	
  the	
  goal	
  or	
  desired	
  outcome?	
  
•    Repeat.	
  	
  Not	
  necessarily	
  in	
  order.	
  
GPACE	
  Holcomb	
  Strategy	
  




Defend	
  the	
  KDHE/Bremby	
  decision	
  and	
  make	
  the	
  
conversa2on	
  public,	
  comprehensive,	
  and	
  factual.	
  
Beyond	
  Coal	
  Campaign	
  Strategy	
  




Internalize	
  the	
  real	
  and	
  full	
  costs	
  of	
  coal	
  combus2on,	
  coal-­‐
                             plant-­‐by-­‐coal-­‐plant.	
  
Holcomb	
  Origins	
  

2001	
  –	
  VP	
  Dick	
  Cheney	
  chairs	
  NEPDG	
  behind	
  closed	
         2009	
  –	
  Parkinson	
  semlement	
  agreement	
  
    doors	
  –	
  the	
  coal	
  rush	
  was	
  (re)born	
                                    –  ACES	
  defeated	
  
         –  	
  3rd	
  IPCC	
  Assessment	
  reported	
                                       –  Electricity	
  demand	
  begins	
  downward	
  
2002	
  –	
  Nascent	
  Beyond	
  Coal	
  Campaign	
  begins	
  in	
                                 movement	
  
    Great	
  Lakes	
  region	
                                                                –  Natural	
  gas	
  prices	
  move	
  sharply	
  
                                                                                                     downward,	
  shale	
  reserves	
  confirmed	
  
2004	
  –	
  Sunflower	
  has	
  Sand	
  Sage	
  coal	
  plant	
  permit	
  in-­‐
                                                                                   2010	
  -­‐	
  Cohesive	
  federal	
  climate	
  policy	
  abandoned	
  
    hand,	
  w/extension	
                                                             (Carol	
  Browner	
  leaves	
  WH)	
  
         –  Approx.	
  20	
  public	
  comments	
                                             –  Bremby	
  fired	
  
         –  Sierra	
  Club	
  Beyond	
  Coal	
  targets	
  every	
                            –  KDHE	
  permits	
  Holcomb	
  at	
  895	
  MW	
  
                   single	
  US	
  coal	
  plant	
                                                     •  Approx.	
  6000	
  public	
  comments	
  
2006	
  –	
  An	
  Inconvenient	
  Truth	
                                                    –  Tri-­‐State	
  G&T	
  public	
  IRP	
  shows	
  no	
  demand	
  
         –  Holcomb	
  Project	
  at	
  2100	
  MW	
                                                 for	
  Holcomb	
  
2007	
  –	
  4th	
  IPCC	
  Assessment	
  reported	
                               2011	
  –	
  Sierra	
  Club	
  files	
  suit	
  against	
  KDHE	
  permit	
  
         –  Mass.	
  v.	
  EPA	
                                                              –  Bloomberg	
  gio,	
  BCC	
  goes	
  from	
  15	
  states	
  to	
  
                                                                                                     45,	
  targets	
  1/3	
  of	
  exis2ng	
  coal	
  
         –  Bremby	
  denies	
  Holcomb	
  at	
  1400	
  MW	
  
                                                                                   2012	
  –	
  MATS,	
  CSAPR,	
  NSPS	
  
                   •  Approx.	
  750	
  public	
  comments	
                                  –  BCC	
  achieves	
  9.5%	
  GHG	
  emissions	
  
2008	
  –	
  Sebelius	
  vetoes	
  2	
  coal	
  plant	
  bills	
                                     reduc2ons,	
  federal	
  cap	
  &	
  trade	
  =	
  5%	
  
         –  Barak	
  Obama	
  elected	
  POTUS,	
  Lisa	
  Jackson	
                          –  Federal	
  court	
  rules	
  against	
  RUS	
  and	
  
                to	
  EPA	
                                                                          Sunflower	
  
                                                                                              –  KS	
  Supreme	
  Court	
  hears	
  arguments	
  re:	
  
                                                                                                     KDHE	
  permit	
  
Why	
  coal?	
  	
  Strategic	
  underpinning.	
  

                                      Greenhouse	
  Gas	
  Emissions	
  from	
  the	
  Electric	
  Sector	
  (2009)	
  	
  

                                                                                        Petroleum	
                  Biomass/Other	
  
                                                                                            2%	
                          1%	
  




                                                                             Natural	
  Gas	
  
                                                                                17%	
  



                                                                                                                             Coal	
  
                                                                                                                             81%	
  



Source:	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  Informa9on	
  Administra9on;	
  March	
  2012	
  Monthly	
  Energy	
  Review,	
  Table	
  12.6	
  
Why	
  coal?	
  

      Emissions	
  from	
  Fossil-­‐Fueled	
  Power	
  Plants	
  as	
  a	
  Percent	
  of	
  Total	
  U.S.	
  Air	
  Emissions	
  




Source:	
  U.S.	
  EPA,	
  “Reducing	
  Toxic	
  Pollu9on	
  from	
  Power	
  Plants,”	
  March	
  16,	
  2011,	
  p.	
  6.	
  
Note:	
  The	
  figure	
  includes	
  emissions	
  from	
  oil-­‐fired	
  units	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  coal-­‐fired,	
  but	
  oil-­‐fired	
  units	
  account	
  for	
  only	
  1%	
  of	
  U.S.	
  electric	
  genera9on.	
  Air	
  emissions	
  are	
  not	
  necessarily	
  
the	
  major	
  source	
  of	
  exposure	
  for	
  each	
  of	
  these	
  pollutants.	
  
Why	
  coal?	
  

"Coal	
  pollutants	
  affect	
  all	
  major	
  body	
  organ	
  systems	
  and	
  contribute	
  to	
  four	
  of	
  
the	
  five	
  leading	
  causes	
  of	
  mortality	
  in	
  the	
  US:	
  heart	
  disease,	
  cancer,	
  stroke,	
  and	
  
chronic	
  lower	
  respiratory	
  diseases."	
  
                                                                                    	
  	
  -­‐	
  Physicians	
  for	
  Social	
  Responsibility	
  


• More	
  than	
  50%	
  of	
  Americans	
  live	
  within	
  30	
  miles	
  of	
  a	
  coal	
  plant	
  


• Mercury	
  poisoning	
  impacts	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  in	
  twelve	
  U.S.	
  women	
  and	
  places	
  their	
  children	
  
at	
  risk	
  


• 	
  $100	
  billion	
  in	
  health	
  costs	
  annually	
  


• 	
  13,000	
  premature	
  deaths	
  annually	
  
Coal	
  loses	
  as	
  playing	
  field	
  leveled	
  
                                               Solar	
  PV	
                                                                                                                                               $136-­‐192	
  
                                    Crystalline	
  RooRop	
  
                                               Solar	
  PV	
  
RENEWABLE	
  ENERGY	
  




                            Crystalline	
  Ground	
  Mount	
                                                                                     $80	
                     $109	
  -­‐	
  124	
   $157	
  
                                               Solar	
  PV	
                                                                    $73	
                                          $89	
  -­‐	
  179	
  
                                                 Thin-­‐Film	
  

                                       Solar	
  Thermal	
                                                                                                                                                $120	
  -­‐	
  198	
  

                                               Fuel	
  Cell	
                                                                                                                                                  $96-­‐248	
  

                                     Biomass	
  Direct	
                                                                                                               $77-­‐150	
  

                                         Geothermal	
                                                                                              $73-­‐135	
  

                                                      Wind	
                                         $30-­‐79	
  

                                 Energy	
  Efficiency	
                    $0-­‐50	
  

                                          Gas	
  Peaking	
                                                                                                                                                                                                  $196-­‐258	
  
CONVENTIONAL	
  




                                                        IGCC	
                                                                                                     $90-­‐134	
  

                                                 Nuclear	
                                                                                        $76-­‐115	
  

                                                      Coal	
                                                                                                  $63-­‐161	
  

                          Gas	
  Combined	
  Cycle	
                                                                               $58-­‐109	
  

                                                                   0	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  50	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  75	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  100	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  150	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  200	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  250	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  300	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  350	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  400	
  
                                                                   Levelized	
  Cost	
  ($/MWh)	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source:	
  Lazard,	
  June	
  2011	
  

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Kansas Environmental Forum presentation

  • 1. Changing  the  energy  capacity  por/olio  of  the  na2on   “No  one  has  done  what  we  are  doing  before.    Ever.     There  is  no  blueprint  to  take  delivery  of  and  execute  on.   We  are  crea2ng  it  as  we  act.”   “Nothing  builds  power  like  winning.”  
  • 2. Anecdotal  Strategies  for  Effec2ve  Movement  Building   •  What  is  the  specific,  discrete  goal  or  desired  outcome?   –  And  how  is  success  determined?    Accountability?   –  Will  it  alone  achieve  the  desired  impact?    Consequences  of  failure?   •  Who  are  the  decision  makers  that  can  deliver  that  outcome?   –  And  what  are  the  specific  criteria  and  constraints  of  the  decision  making?   –  Timeline   •  What  is  the  process  and  context  within  which  the  decision  will  be  made?   –  Who’s  with  you?    Who’s  against  you?  Elected?  Appointed?  Anointed?   –  Public  opinion?  (not  anecdotal,  but  measurable  snapshot),  messengers   •  What  are  your  available  resources?   –  Funding  (promised,  likely,  in  the  bank)   –  Partners,  staff   –  Talent,  skills,  access,  experience   •  Are  you  sure?   –  Can  you  deliver  your  core  strategy  in  one  sentence?   •  Now…What  is  the  goal  or  desired  outcome?   •  Repeat.    Not  necessarily  in  order.  
  • 3. GPACE  Holcomb  Strategy   Defend  the  KDHE/Bremby  decision  and  make  the   conversa2on  public,  comprehensive,  and  factual.  
  • 4. Beyond  Coal  Campaign  Strategy   Internalize  the  real  and  full  costs  of  coal  combus2on,  coal-­‐ plant-­‐by-­‐coal-­‐plant.  
  • 5. Holcomb  Origins   2001  –  VP  Dick  Cheney  chairs  NEPDG  behind  closed   2009  –  Parkinson  semlement  agreement   doors  –  the  coal  rush  was  (re)born   –  ACES  defeated   –   3rd  IPCC  Assessment  reported   –  Electricity  demand  begins  downward   2002  –  Nascent  Beyond  Coal  Campaign  begins  in   movement   Great  Lakes  region   –  Natural  gas  prices  move  sharply   downward,  shale  reserves  confirmed   2004  –  Sunflower  has  Sand  Sage  coal  plant  permit  in-­‐ 2010  -­‐  Cohesive  federal  climate  policy  abandoned   hand,  w/extension   (Carol  Browner  leaves  WH)   –  Approx.  20  public  comments   –  Bremby  fired   –  Sierra  Club  Beyond  Coal  targets  every   –  KDHE  permits  Holcomb  at  895  MW   single  US  coal  plant   •  Approx.  6000  public  comments   2006  –  An  Inconvenient  Truth   –  Tri-­‐State  G&T  public  IRP  shows  no  demand   –  Holcomb  Project  at  2100  MW   for  Holcomb   2007  –  4th  IPCC  Assessment  reported   2011  –  Sierra  Club  files  suit  against  KDHE  permit   –  Mass.  v.  EPA   –  Bloomberg  gio,  BCC  goes  from  15  states  to   45,  targets  1/3  of  exis2ng  coal   –  Bremby  denies  Holcomb  at  1400  MW   2012  –  MATS,  CSAPR,  NSPS   •  Approx.  750  public  comments   –  BCC  achieves  9.5%  GHG  emissions   2008  –  Sebelius  vetoes  2  coal  plant  bills   reduc2ons,  federal  cap  &  trade  =  5%   –  Barak  Obama  elected  POTUS,  Lisa  Jackson   –  Federal  court  rules  against  RUS  and   to  EPA   Sunflower   –  KS  Supreme  Court  hears  arguments  re:   KDHE  permit  
  • 6. Why  coal?    Strategic  underpinning.   Greenhouse  Gas  Emissions  from  the  Electric  Sector  (2009)     Petroleum   Biomass/Other   2%   1%   Natural  Gas   17%   Coal   81%   Source:  U.S.  Energy  Informa9on  Administra9on;  March  2012  Monthly  Energy  Review,  Table  12.6  
  • 7. Why  coal?   Emissions  from  Fossil-­‐Fueled  Power  Plants  as  a  Percent  of  Total  U.S.  Air  Emissions   Source:  U.S.  EPA,  “Reducing  Toxic  Pollu9on  from  Power  Plants,”  March  16,  2011,  p.  6.   Note:  The  figure  includes  emissions  from  oil-­‐fired  units  as  well  as  coal-­‐fired,  but  oil-­‐fired  units  account  for  only  1%  of  U.S.  electric  genera9on.  Air  emissions  are  not  necessarily   the  major  source  of  exposure  for  each  of  these  pollutants.  
  • 8. Why  coal?   "Coal  pollutants  affect  all  major  body  organ  systems  and  contribute  to  four  of   the  five  leading  causes  of  mortality  in  the  US:  heart  disease,  cancer,  stroke,  and   chronic  lower  respiratory  diseases."      -­‐  Physicians  for  Social  Responsibility   • More  than  50%  of  Americans  live  within  30  miles  of  a  coal  plant   • Mercury  poisoning  impacts  at  least  one  in  twelve  U.S.  women  and  places  their  children   at  risk   •   $100  billion  in  health  costs  annually   •   13,000  premature  deaths  annually  
  • 9. Coal  loses  as  playing  field  leveled   Solar  PV   $136-­‐192   Crystalline  RooRop   Solar  PV   RENEWABLE  ENERGY   Crystalline  Ground  Mount   $80   $109  -­‐  124   $157   Solar  PV   $73   $89  -­‐  179   Thin-­‐Film   Solar  Thermal   $120  -­‐  198   Fuel  Cell   $96-­‐248   Biomass  Direct   $77-­‐150   Geothermal   $73-­‐135   Wind   $30-­‐79   Energy  Efficiency   $0-­‐50   Gas  Peaking   $196-­‐258   CONVENTIONAL   IGCC   $90-­‐134   Nuclear   $76-­‐115   Coal   $63-­‐161   Gas  Combined  Cycle   $58-­‐109   0                  50                  75                  100                  150                  200                  250                  300                  350                  400   Levelized  Cost  ($/MWh)   Source:  Lazard,  June  2011