Here I explain how Canadian and American communities along the Red River of the North have developed fundamentally different responses to the threat of flooding, and argue that these differences in flood mitigation reflect disparate experiences with particular floods during the past two hundred years.

1. Development of a Framework for Technical Review of Paleoflood Information | Rockville, Maryland | May 29-30, 2019
HISTORIC ACCOUNTS
OF EXTREME FLOODS
ON THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH

2. THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

3. THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

4. LAKE AGASSIZ

5. 1997
Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada

6. GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA

7. $3.5 B
USD

8. WINNIPEG, CANADA

9. River diversion
Main channel
Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada

10. ?
WHY DID
WINNIPEG
ADOPT SUCH A HIGH LEVEL OF PROTECTION
WHILE AMERICAN COMMUNITIES
REMAINED RELATIVELY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING?

11. 1950

14. Estimate for 1826 discharge
Floodway capacity
1950 flood discharge
Sources: Brooks and St. George, Geomorphic Approaches to Integrated Floodplain Management of Lowland Fluvial Systems in North America and Europe (2015); Manitoba Water Stewardship
THE FLOODWAY WAS DESIGNED FOR A FLOOD LARGER THAN THE RECENT 1950 DISASTER
PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MEMORY OF PAST FLOODS.

15. THE DAKOTA TERRITORY WAS THE NORTHERNMOST PART
OF THE LAND ACQUIRED IN THE LOUISIANA PURCHASE IN 1803,

16. GRAND FORKS
1870

17. WINNIPEG
1812

19. FORT GARRY, HUDSON’S BAY COMPANY

22. ACCORDING TO HISTORICAL ACCOUNTS, THREE 19TH CENTURY FLOODS
EQUALLED OR EXCEEDED THE 1997 ‘FLOOD OF THE CENTURY’.
Source: Brooks and St. George, Geomorphic Approaches to Integrated Floodplain Management of Lowland Fluvial Systems in North America and Europe (2015)

23. MAY 11826

24. WE OFTEN WISHED AND PRAYED FOR WARM WEATHER;
NOW THIS IS SENT US,
AND IT TURNS OUT THE CAUSE OF MOST SERIOUS APPREHENSION;
THE PRODIGIOUS QUALITY OF SNOW
… HAS BEEN DISSOLVED SO FAST
AS TO CAUSE THE RIVER TO SWELL WITH UNUSAL CELERITY.
“ ”
David Jones Journal
May 1826

25. MAY 31826

26. THE RIVER ROSE SIX FEET
LAST NIGHT PERPENDICULARLY ,
SEVERAL TENTS ARE NOW PITCHED UPON
THE MOST ELEVATED SPOTS:
TERROR IS STRONGLY DEPICTED
ON EVERY COUNTENANCE.
“ ”
David Jones Journal
May 1826

27. MAY 51826

28. THE RIVER
OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS
EVERY WHERE,
AND CARRIED THE ICE WITH GREAT VELOCITY
TO A GREATER DISTANCE FROM ITS COURSE,
THAN HAD EVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE
BY THE OLDEST INHABITANTS.
“ ”
Red River Journal
May 1826

29. MAY 161826

30. THE WHOLE FACE OF THE COUNTRY,
BOTH BELOW AND ABOVE OUR ENCAMPMENT
IS COVERED WITH WATER,
AND IN THIS WINDY WEATHER, LOOKS LIKE
AN IMMENSE LAKE IN A STORM.
“ ”
Red River Journal
May 1826

31. Source: St. George and Rannie (2003)

32. 1826

33. DONALD SMITH DRIVES THE LAST SPIKE
OF THE CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY IN 7 NOVEMBER 1885.

34. ESTIMATED STAGE (SOLID LINE) AND DISCHARGE (DASHED LINE)
FOR THE 1826 RED RIVER FLOOD AT WINNIPEG
Source: St. George and Rannie (2003)

35. THE LARGEST FLOODS ARE KNOWN FROM HISTORICAL ACCOUNTS
AND POST HOC SURVEYS OF LOCAL ELDERS.
Source: Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship
0
60,000
120,000
180,000
240,000
2006 1996 1979 1950 2011 1861 2009 1997 1852 1826
discharge (cfs)
historical reports
river gauges

36. ?WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN
HISTORIC AND PALEO PEAKS
DON’T MATCH?

37. 1826

40. 1776

41. The late Mr. Nolin, who was one of the first
adventurers in these parts, assured the writer,
that when he first entered Red River, in the year
1776, the flood was still higher than on the
present occasion; he having sailed that year, as
he declared, from Red Lake River, round by way
of Pembina, and down towards the colony; the
whole country being under water, and the river
appearing to him rather like a lake.
“ ”
Alexander Ross
The Red River Se lement: Its Rise, Progress, and Present State (1856)

43. WINNIPEG GRAND FORKS

44. IN THE EARLY 2000s, FLOOD RISK ESTIMATES AT WINNIPEG WERE BASED
ON RANDOMIZED HYDROCLIMATIC DATA FROM THE PRIOR SIX DECADES.
Source: Warkentin, Proceedings of the Red River Flooding “Decreasing Our Risks” Conference (1999)
1964 1997 1973 1954 1996 1948 1999 1991 1964 1997
1994 1955 1959 1942 1977 1980 1983 1955 1961 1950
1826
This approach to risk assessment did not allow information
about the 1826 flood to influence its results.

45. Source: Bryce Hoye, CBC Winnipeg

46. Source: Bryce Hoye, CBC Winnipeg

47. IN 2005, THE GOVERNMENTS OF CANADA AND MANITOBA AGREED TO
EXPAND THE FLOODWAY TO PROTECT AGAINST THE “700-YR FLOOD”.

49. @sco stgeorge