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20.02.2013



                                                                                           Company Analysis - Overview
                                                                                                                                                        Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and
Ticker:                    BCVN SW            Banque Cantonale Vaudoise                                     Benchmark:                                  corporate banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, treasury management,
Currency:                                     SIX Swiss Ex: BCVN, Currency: CHF                             SWISS MARKET INDEX (SMI)                    pension funds, and investment management services, trades in commodities, advises
                                                                                                                                                        on mergers and acquisitions, and offers securities brokerage services. BCV operates
Sector: Financials       Industry: Commercial Banks                                                            Year:                                    primarily in the Canton of Vaud.

Telephone         41-21-212-1000                         Revenue (M)                                1'321   Business Segments in CHF                            Sales (M)   Geographic Segments in CHF                             Sales (M)
Website           www.bcv.ch                             No of Employees                            1'967   Wealth Management                                         368   Switzerland                                                    1
Address           Place Saint-Francois 14 Case postale 300 Lausanne, 1001 Switzerland                       Corporate Banking                                         287   Rest of the World
Share Price Performance in CHF                                                                              Retail Banking                                            214
Price                               522.00               1M Return                                  6.9%    Corporate Center                                           86
52 Week High                        524.00               6M Return                                  3.4%    Trading                                                    62
52 Week Low                         436.94               52 Wk Return                              14.9%
52 Wk Beta                             0.67              YTD Return                                 7.7%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                   IG3                                                                                                     6%
S&P                          AA       Date                05.12.2011               Outlook          NEG                      8%
Moody's                       -       Date                -                        Outlook        STABLE
Fitch                         -       Date                -                        Outlook             -
                                                                                                                                                        37%
Valuation Ratios
                          12/09      12/10       12/11         12/12     12/13E         12/14E    12/15E               21%
P/E                       11.8x      13.5x       13.0x         13.4x      14.4x          14.2x     13.7x
EV/EBIT                        -          -           -             -          -              -         -
EV/EBITDA                      -          -           -             -          -              -         -
P/S                         2.6x       3.1x        2.9x          3.2x       4.4x           4.3x      4.2x
P/B                         1.4x       1.7x        1.5x          1.6x       1.3x           1.2x      1.3x
Div Yield                  5.1%       4.5%        7.0%          6.6%       6.1%           6.2%      6.3%                                28%                                                             100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09         12/10       12/11         12/12     12/13E         12/14E    12/15E
                                                                                                                                   Wealth Management
Gross Margin                -            -           -             -          -              -         -
EBITDA Margin               -            -           -             -          -              -         -                           Corporate Banking
Operating Margin        35.0          36.5        34.5          36.5       51.6           52.5      51.4
                                                                                                                                   Retail Banking
Profit Margin           28.8          29.1        27.7          29.1       30.3           30.1      30.4                                                                                                 Switzerland
Return on Assets          0.8          0.9         0.8           0.8        0.9            0.9       0.9                           Corporate Center
Return on Equity        12.1          12.4        11.8          12.0        9.3            9.3       9.4
                                                                                                                                   Trading
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09         12/10       12/11         12/12
Current Ratio               -            -           -             -                                        Current Capitalization in CHF
Quick Ratio                 -            -           -             -                                        Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                             8.6
EBIT/Interest               -            -           -             -                                        Market Capitalization (M)                                                                              4492.4
Tot Debt/Capital          0.8          0.7         0.8           0.8                                        Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                            6738.0
Tot Debt/Equity           3.2          3.0         3.1           3.2                                        Total Debt (M)                                                                                         8850.0
Eff Tax Rate %          22.6          22.9        23.0          22.8                                        Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                            LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                 0.0
                                                                                                            Investments (M)                                                                                          20.0
                                                                                                            Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                   6624.4



                                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise
Target price in CHF
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                      Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                                600           600
                        100%                                             0%       0%                                            0%

                                                      20%      20%                          17%       17%          17%                      17%     20%
                                                                                                                                                                500           500
                                  33%       33%
                        80%

                                                                                                                                                                400           400

                        60%
                                                                                                                                                                              300
                                                                        100%     100%                                          100%                             300

                        40%                           80%      80%                          83%       83%          83%                      83%     80%                       200
                                  67%       67%                                                                                                                 200
                                                                                                                                                                              100
                        20%
                                                                                                                                                                100
                                                                                                                                                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Main First




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Helvea
                                                                                                                                                                                              Dimensions




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bank Vontobel




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Kantonalbank




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Bank AG
                         0%       0%         0%       0%       0%        0%       0%         0%        0%          0%           0%          0%       0%         0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Zuercher
                                                                                                                                                                                                 EVA
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12   juin.12   juil.12   août.12   sept.12      oct.12       nov.12     déc.12   janv.13




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AG
                                                                       Buy       Hold         Sell       Price             Target Price

                               Date                     Buy             Hold               Sell                       Date                Price Target Price                  Broker                       Analyst                                       Recommendation           Target               Date
                               31-Jan-13                 0%              80%               20%                     20-Feb-13              522.00       515.00                 EVA Dimensions               AUSTIN BURKETT                                         sell                               20-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                 0%              83%               17%                     19-Feb-13              512.00       515.00                 Bank Vontobel AG             TERESA NIELSEN                                        hold              530.00            19-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12                 0%              100%               0%                     18-Feb-13              505.50       501.67                 Zuercher Kantonalbank        ANDREAS VENDITTI                                  market perform                          15-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12                 0%              83%               17%                     15-Feb-13              496.00       507.50                 Main First Bank AG           KILIAN MAIER                                      underperform          490.00            14-Feb-13
                               28-Sep-12                 0%              83%               17%                     14-Feb-13              503.00       507.50                 Helvea                       TIM DAWSON                                           neutral            525.00            14-Feb-13
                               31-Aug-12                 0%              83%               17%                     13-Feb-13              471.25       492.50
                               31-Jul-12                 0%              100%               0%                     12-Feb-13              481.00       492.50
                               29-Jun-12                 0%              100%               0%                     11-Feb-13              488.25       492.50
                               31-May-12                 0%              80%               20%                      8-Feb-13              485.50       491.67
                               30-Apr-12                 0%              80%               20%                      7-Feb-13              486.25       491.67
                               30-Mar-12                 0%              67%               33%                      6-Feb-13              487.00       491.67
                               29-Feb-12                 0%              67%               33%                      5-Feb-13              490.75       475.00
                                                                                                                    4-Feb-13              488.75       475.00
                                                                                                                    1-Feb-13              489.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   31-Jan-13              486.25       475.00
                                                                                                                   30-Jan-13              485.25       475.00
                                                                                                                   29-Jan-13              486.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   28-Jan-13              493.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   25-Jan-13              488.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   24-Jan-13              486.25       475.00
                                                                                                                   23-Jan-13              486.25       475.00
                                                                                                                   22-Jan-13              489.00       475.00
                                                                                                                   21-Jan-13              490.00       475.00
                                                                                                                   18-Jan-13              488.50       475.00
                                                                                                                   17-Jan-13              491.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   16-Jan-13              487.00       475.00
                                                                                                                   15-Jan-13              486.75       475.00
                                                                                                                   14-Jan-13              491.25       475.00
                                                                                                                   11-Jan-13              493.00       475.00
                                                                                                                   10-Jan-13              491.25       475.00

                                                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
20.02.2013



Banque Cantonale Vaudoise
                                                                             Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                    Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                            Geographic Ownership
                                                                                           0%
Shares Outstanding (M)                            8.6                                                                                 Switzerland                               93.03%
                                                                         25%                                                                                                                                           1%         0%0%0%
Float                                          32.7%                                                                                  United States                             3.08%                                 1%               0%
Short Interest (M)                                                                                                                    Britain                                   1.47%                               4%
Short Interest as % of Float                                                                                                          Luxembourg                                1.34%
Days to Cover Shorts                                                                                                                  Unknown Country                           0.40%
Institutional Ownership                       74.88%                                                                                  Germany                                   0.15%
Retail Ownership                              24.81%                                                                                  France                                    0.14%
Insider Ownership                              0.30%                                                                                  Others                                    0.40%
                                                                                                          75%
                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        94%
                                                                                                                                      Government                                89.05%
                                                                                                                                      Investment Advisor                        7.37%
                                                                                                                                      Mutual Fund Manager                       2.79%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Switzerland         United States        Britain
                                                          Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership    Insider Ownership          Individual                                0.40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Luxembourg          Unknown Country      Germany
Pricing data is in CHF                                                                                                                Others                                    0.39%                     France              Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                   Position   Position Change                      Market Value           % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
CANTON OF VAUD                              5'762'252                   0                     3'007'895'544              66.95%                      01.01.2012    Co File   SWITZERLAND                                      0%       0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3%
UBS FUND MANAGEMENT                            99'092                -291                        51'726'024               1.15%                      31.10.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
BLACKROCK                                      58'620               7'662                        30'599'640               0.68%                      15.02.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES                              7%
VANGUARD GROUP INC                             55'668               1'997                        29'058'696               0.65%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
JUPITER ASSET MANAGE                           54'169            -11'500                         28'276'218               0.63%                      31.07.2012   MF-AGG        BRITAIN
CREDIT SUISSE ASSET                            45'660                 775                        23'834'520               0.53%                      28.12.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
THORNBURG INVESTMENT                           44'400                   0                        23'176'800               0.52%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
SWISSCANTO FONDSLEIT                           31'940                -514                        16'672'680               0.37%                      30.11.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
NEW JERSEY DIVISION                            24'618                   0                        12'850'596               0.29%                      30.06.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
PICTET & CIE                                   23'611                   0                        12'324'942               0.27%                      31.10.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND                                                    90%
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE                           22'742                   0                        11'871'324               0.26%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG      GERMANY
SCHRODER INVESTMENT                            18'595               3'950                         9'706'590               0.22%                      30.06.2012   MF-AGG        BRITAIN
BNP PARIBAS INV PART                           18'469                -113                         9'640'818               0.21%                      30.11.2012   ULT-AGG       FRANCE
VONTOBEL ASSET MANAG                           16'600               3'350                         8'665'200               0.19%                      31.10.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND     Government                  Investment Advisor       Mutual Fund Manager
                                                                                                                                                                                             Individual                  Others
SCHRODER INVESTMENT                            16'170                   0                         8'440'740               0.19%                      28.09.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
BARING FUND MANAGERS                           12'574                   0                         6'563'628               0.15%                      31.10.2012   MF-AGG        BRITAIN
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL                           10'122                   0                         5'283'684               0.12%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
INTERNATIONAL VALUE                             9'890              -5'912                         5'162'580               0.11%                      31.03.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
SARASIN                                         9'201                   0                         4'802'922               0.11%                      30.11.2012   ULT-AGG
STEIMER OLIVIER                                 8'074                   0                         4'214'628               0.09%                      31.12.2011    Co File        n/a
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                  Position    Position Change                        Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
STEIMER OLIVIER                                 8'074                                              4'214'628               0.09%                     31.12.2011    Co File
KIENER PASCAL                                   7'177                                              3'746'394               0.08%                     31.12.2011    Co File
ACHARD AIME                                     1'642                                                857'124               0.02%                     31.12.2011    Co File
SCHWARZ JEAN-FRANCOIS                           1'583                                                826'326               0.02%                     31.12.2011    Co File
SAGER BERTRAND                                  1'566                                                817'452               0.02%                     31.12.2011    Co File




                                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise
Financial information is in CHF (M)                                                                                                                                             Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12   12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                               1'604        1'516    1'438       1'499       1'590        1'727       1'566        1'371      1'352   1'352   1'321    1'029       1'050         1'074
  - Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                  856           732      674        643          656         645          589         590         608     622     611
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                       -977          156      427        378          433         429          325         365         393     377     391     531          551          552
  - Interest Expense
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                    -36          -18      -12        -210        -247         -287        -134          -24        -14     -14     -12

Pretax Income                                        -1'192          174      359        477          558         576          459         390         407     391     403     414          424          433
  - Income Tax Expense                                    8           17       22         20           23          99          101          88          93      90      92

Income Before XO Items                               -1'200          157      337        457          534         477          358         301         314     301     311
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                        0            0        0          0                                     0           0           0               0
   - Minority Interests                                   0            3        2          3            4           4            1           1           1      -1       0

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                                                                                                 41.40        34.93       36.39   35.10   36.14

Net Income Adjusted*                                 -1'200          154      335        356         410          473         330          279         313     302     304     312          316          326
EPS Adjusted                                       (141.39)         6.98    39.31      41.36       47.85        55.28       38.39        32.41       36.39   35.10   35.28   36.18        36.66        38.22
Dividends Per Share                                   0.00          2.00     3.00       4.50        7.00        14.00       20.00        21.00       22.00   32.00   32.00   32.00        32.25        33.00
        Payout Ratio %                                              40.4      7.6        8.5        11.4         25.5        48.3         60.1        60.4    91.2    88.6    0.88         0.88         0.86

Total Shares Outstanding                                  8           22        8           9           9           9            9           9           9       9       9
Diluted Shares Outstanding                                                                                                       9           9           9       9       9

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02    12/03    12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                399      368      400         282         321          353         546        1'404         388    1'711    4'735
  + Short Term Investments              1'142    1'360    1'489       1'806       2'116        2'146         702          485       2'413      601      693
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable
  + Inventories
  + Other Current Assets

Total Long-Term Assets
  + Long Term Investments               1'508    1'539    1'573       1'697       1'669        1'671       1'634        2'951       2'966    2'975    3'153
         Gross Fixed Assets
         Accumulated Depreciation
  + Net Fixed Assets                      424      410      392         381         365          286         283         597         588      628      621
  + Other Long Term Assets              3'373    2'714    2'413       4'244       1'857        2'037       1'897         515         710      895      633

Total Current Liabilities
  + Accounts Payable
  + Short Term Borrowings               3'318    2'987    2'458       3'554       2'091        2'477       2'361        2'243       1'994    2'749    2'447
  + Other Short Term Liabilities        2'250    2'130    1'854       4'925       2'336        2'084       1'592          926         974      944      867

Total Long Term Liabilities
  + Long Term Borrowings                9'255    7'628    6'331       5'475       6'684        6'938       6'508        5'937       5'582    5'202    5'968
  + Other Long Term Borrowings            254      253      332         484         628          765       1'076          704         704      704      704

Total Liabilities                      31'618   29'789   27'950      32'088      30'176       32'816      33'138      33'215       33'018   35'306   37'189
  + Long Preferred Equity                   0        0        0           0           0            0           0           0            0        0        0
  + Minority Interest                      20       21       14          15          14           15          13          14           14       20        1
  + Share Capital & APIC                1'695    1'714    1'722       1'596       1'345          891         613         529          445      446      361
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity     -814      575      853       1'176       1'495        1'615       1'847       1'975        2'108    2'131    2'249

Total Shareholders Equity                901     2'310    2'588       2'787       2'855        2'521       2'473        2'518       2'567    2'597    2'611

Total Liabilities & Equity             32'519   32'098   30'537      34'875      33'031       35'337      35'611      35'733       35'585   37'903   39'800

Book Value Per Share                   103.78   104.24   304.18      325.40      331.73      291.80       286.37      291.49       297.12   300.04   303.28   410.56   418.23   402.06
  Tangible Book Value Per Share         89.84   100.82   293.24      314.24      329.80      290.44       285.73      290.95       296.69   295.97   298.98




                                                           Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02    12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12   12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                             -1'200    154     335         454          530          473         356         301        313     302     311      313      316      323
  + Depreciation & Amortization         1'357    262       1         -77         -110         -175          35         102         58      98
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments            224     -9      82         119          130          144           3          -1          2      -1
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital           -34      6      -6         -30            1           85         -79         -11         25     -22

Cash From Operating Activities           347     413     412         467          551         527          315         391        397     377
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets
  + Capital Expenditures
  + Increase in Investments
  + Decrease in Investments
  + Other Investing Activities

Cash From Investing Activities
  + Dividends Paid                                                                                        -121
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings
  + Increase in Capital Stocks
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks
  + Other Financing Activities

Cash From Financing Activities                                                                            -121

Net Changes in Cash

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)               347     413     412         467          525         498          304         379        377     353

Free Cash Flow To Firm
Free Cash Flow To Equity
Free Cash Flow per Share               40.87    18.71   48.33       54.50       61.09        57.90       35.34       43.99       43.77   41.02




                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                          12/02    12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12        12/13E       12/14E       12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                               20.2x     5.2x        7.1x       12.2x        12.8x        7.7x        11.8x      13.5x    13.0x    13.4x         14.4x        14.2x        13.7x
  EV to EBIT
  EV to EBITDA
  Price to Sales                        0.4x     2.1x     1.2x       2.2x         3.2x        2.5x         1.7x        2.6x        3.1x     2.9x     3.2x         4.4x         4.3x         4.2x
  Price to Book                         0.8x     1.4x     0.7x       1.2x         1.8x        1.7x         1.1x        1.4x        1.7x     1.5x     1.6x         1.3x         1.2x         1.3x
  Dividend Yield                       0.0%     1.4%     1.5%       1.2%         1.2%        2.8%         6.3%        5.1%        4.5%     7.0%     6.6%         6.1%         6.2%         6.3%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin
  EBITDA Margin                                                                                                                                             -            -            -
  Operating Margin                   -103.7%   15.3%    41.7%      33.9%        36.8%       36.7%        32.4%       35.0%       36.5%    34.5%    36.5%        51.6%        52.5%        51.4%
  Profit Margin                      -127.3%   15.1%    32.7%      40.8%        45.1%       40.5%        35.5%       28.8%       29.1%    27.7%    29.1%        30.3%        30.1%        30.4%
  Return on Assets                     -3.6%    0.5%     1.1%       1.4%         1.6%        1.4%         1.0%        0.8%        0.9%     0.8%     0.8%         0.9%         0.9%         0.9%
  Return on Equity                   -104.4%    9.7%    13.8%      17.0%        18.9%       17.7%        14.3%       12.1%       12.4%    11.8%    12.0%         9.3%         9.3%         9.4%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio
  Quick Ratio
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
  Tot Debt/Capital                      0.93    0.82     0.77        0.76        0.75         0.79        0.78         0.76       0.75     0.75     0.76
  Tot Debt/Equity                      13.95    4.60     3.40        3.24        3.07         3.73        3.59         3.25       2.95     3.06     3.22

Others
  Asset Turnover                        0.05    0.05     0.05        0.05        0.05         0.05        0.04         0.04       0.04     0.04     0.03
  Accounts Receivable Turnover
  Accounts Payable Turnover
  Inventory Turnover

  Effective Tax Rate                            9.6%     6.1%       4.3%         4.2%       17.1%        22.1%       22.6%       22.9%    23.0%    22.8%




                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                         BANQUE CANTO-                                                                              VONTOBEL HLDG-                                                   VERWALTUNGS-U-                                    BASLER KANTON-       LUZERNER KAN-                              PARTNERS GROUP
                                                              UBS AG-REG       CREDIT SUISS-REG BANK SARASIN-B GAM HOLDING AG                      LIECHTENSTEIN-BR ST GALLER KA-REG EFG INTERNAT AG                                VZ HOLDING AG                                                VALIANT HLDG AG
                                             REG                                                                                          R                                                               BR                                                 PC                  REG                                          J

Latest Fiscal Year:                             12/2012            12/2012            12/2012         12/2011         12/2011              12/2012            12/2011           12/2012               12/2011         12/2011              12/2011            12/2011              12/2012               12/2011              12/2011
52-Week High                                      524.00              16.39              27.85           28.80           16.25                33.00              42.45            404.50                 11.95           84.00               130.00             113.60               360.00                111.64               223.70
52-Week High Date                             20.02.2013         25.01.2013         07.02.2013      20.02.2012      15.02.2013           20.02.2013         22.02.2012        19.02.2013            20.02.2013      20.02.2012           11.02.2013         27.04.2012           06.02.2013            02.03.2012           11.01.2013
52-Week Low                                       456.96                9.69             15.97           24.50             9.92               17.80              25.50            320.75                   4.77          60.00                85.00              98.00               311.00                 74.35               157.20
52-Week Low Date                              07.03.2012         24.07.2012         03.08.2012      08.10.2012      25.05.2012           28.06.2012         16.11.2012        21.05.2012            24.07.2012      21.11.2012           26.07.2012         16.11.2012           29.02.2012            31.08.2012           04.06.2012
Daily Volume                                      17'955          6'729'041          4'236'189           1'193         327'314               62'761              9'127             1'546                94'015           5'665                3'371                794                2'056                38'297               26'033
  Current Price (2/dd/yy)                        522.00              15.31               27.34          27.00           16.15                33.00              31.80             401.00                11.70           80.25               129.50              98.90               360.00                 87.35               213.50
  52-Week High % Change                            -0.4%               -6.6%              -1.8%          -6.2%           -0.6%                 0.0%             -25.1%             -0.9%                 -2.1%           -4.5%               -0.4%              -12.9%                 0.0%               -21.8%                -4.6%
  52-Week Low % Change                             14.2%              58.1%              71.2%           10.2%          62.8%                 85.4%              24.7%             25.0%               145.3%            33.8%               52.4%                0.9%                15.8%                17.5%                35.8%
Total Common Shares (M)                              8.6            3'747.4            1'292.7            62.9          177.1                  63.4               28.4               5.5                146.7              5.8                 7.8                29.9                  8.5                 15.8                 25.4
  Market Capitalization                         4'492.4           58'727.0           36'111.5         1'698.3         2'961.2              2'145.0              979.4           2'234.9               1'716.0           474.7              1'036.0            3'096.7              3'060.0               1'379.5              5'700.5
Total Debt                                       8'415.0         267'400.0           330'510.0         2'024.9           17.5               7'456.5            1'844.5           5'065.0               1'269.7           928.9                 1.4             7'662.3              5'639.3              6'379.3                  -
Preferred Stock                                      -                 -                   -               -              -                     -                  -                 -                     -               -                   -                   -                    -                    -                    -
Minority Interest                                    1.0           4'353.0             6'786.0            37.4            -                     -                101.2               -                    24.6            19.0                 -                 361.6                  -                    -                    0.8
Cash and Equivalents                             6'742.0          66'383.0            63'708.0         2'764.8          600.1               2'999.6            7'716.7           2'183.0               3'286.2         5'389.3               361.2             3'907.4              2'920.5              1'946.1                 96.7
   Enterprise Value                                       -      264'097.0                      -               -               -          6'978.0                      -                 -                     -               -           804.8                       -                    -                     -          5'605.2
                                                                                                                                                         Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY           1'321.2          37'392.0            38'313.0          831.5           812.2                890.7              555.0              501.6               1'078.2          320.7                143.8              935.8                685.4                 693.4                448.8
                                  LTM            1'321.2          37'470.0            38'313.0          795.5           983.4                861.4              569.7              501.6               1'146.3          314.0                144.3              940.7                685.4                 663.4                480.4
                                 CY+1            1'029.3          26'730.4            26'558.3          680.7           581.8                842.4              407.0              509.0                 791.2          217.0                148.5              672.0                427.0                 386.0                425.0
                                 CY+2            1'050.3          27'411.1            27'461.6          741.3           621.8                912.0              407.0              523.0                 796.1          221.0                170.7              648.0                437.0                 391.0                509.3
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY                  -              6.9x                    -              -               -                6.8x                   -                 -                     -               -                2.7x                   -                    -                     -                 9.3x
                                  LTM                   -              6.9x                    -              -               -                7.0x                   -                 -                     -               -                2.7x                   -                    -                     -                 8.7x
                                 CY+1                   -                  -                   -              -           4.5x                     -                  -                 -                     -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                13.2x
                                 CY+2                   -                  -                   -              -           4.3x                     -                  -                 -                     -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                10.9x
EBITDA                             LFY                  -         17'464.0                     -              -               -              213.9                    -                 -                     -               -               66.4                    -                    -                     -              236.2
                                  LTM                  -          17'575.0                    -              -               -               202.6                   -                 -                     -               -                64.7                   -                    -                     -               250.0
                                 CY+1                  -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -                65.3                   -                    -                     -               267.2
                                 CY+2                  -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -                80.5                   -                    -                     -               324.7
EV/EBITDA                          LFY                  -             14.8x                    -              -               -               28.2x                   -                 -                     -               -                5.8x                   -                    -                     -                17.6x
                                  LTM                   -             16.1x                    -              -               -               29.8x                   -                 -                     -               -                5.9x                   -                    -                     -                16.6x
                                 CY+1                   -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                20.9x
                                 CY+2                   -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                17.1x
EPS                                LFY             35.48               1.68                0.77           1.63           -0.52                 1.76               0.38             27.28                 -0.52            0.75                 6.48               5.99                19.51                  6.85                  7.75
                                  LTM              36.14              -0.75                0.84           1.04           -0.32                 1.55               1.34             27.28                 -2.21            2.07                 6.33               7.37                19.79                  7.90                  8.46
                                 CY+1             36.18               0.93                2.70           1.62            0.87                 2.32               2.91             30.88                  0.79            2.69                 6.40               9.34                21.85                  7.28                  9.67
                                 CY+2             36.66               1.21                3.11           1.83            1.09                 2.68               3.60             31.97                  0.93            4.51                 7.69               7.75                22.48                  6.84                11.69
P/E                                LFY             14.4x                   -              32.5x          26.0x                -               21.3x              23.7x             14.7x                      -          38.8x                20.5x              13.4x                18.2x                 11.1x                 25.2x
                                  LTM              14.7x              15.3x               12.3x          26.0x                -               20.6x              23.7x             14.7x                      -          38.8x                20.6x              14.0x                15.2x                 14.4x                 25.7x
                                 CY+1              14.4x              16.5x               10.1x          16.6x           18.6x                14.2x              10.9x             13.0x                 14.9x           29.8x                20.2x              10.6x                16.5x                 12.0x                 22.1x
                                 CY+2              14.2x              12.6x                8.8x          14.8x           14.8x                12.3x               8.8x             12.5x                 12.6x           17.8x                16.8x              12.8x                16.0x                 12.8x                 18.3x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year            (2.3%)             (8.5%)            (10.3%)          (2.3%)         (15.8%)                     -            (8.3%)           (28.6%)                80.6%           (7.7%)                8.1%              (6.6%)               (4.7%)                (1.9%)                 0.3%
                                5 Year            (4.5%)           (10.7%)               30.2%          (5.5%)                -              (5.5%)             (7.6%)           (16.3%)               399.5%          (13.5%)               10.2%              (3.5%)               (4.1%)                (0.2%)                13.9%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year                  -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -               3.9%                    -                    -                     -             (26.4%)
                                5 Year                  -          (29.1%)                     -              -               -              (9.9%)                   -                 -                     -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                7.6%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM                   -            47.0%                     -              -               -              23.5%                    -                 -                     -               -              44.9%                    -                    -                     -               52.0%
                                 CY+1                   -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -              44.0%                    -                    -                     -               62.9%
                                 CY+2                   -                  -                   -              -               -                    -                  -                 -                     -               -              47.2%                    -                    -                     -               63.7%
                                                                                                                                                Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                            322.4%             582.6%             927.6%          164.7%             0.8%              498.2%             119.7%             271.9%               128.7%          105.6%                  0.7%            283.6%               364.2%                351.2%                  0.0%
Total Debt / Capital %                            76.3%              84.2%              88.6%           61.5%             0.8%               83.3%              52.9%              73.1%                55.7%           50.8%                  0.7%             71.4%                78.5%                 77.8%                  0.0%
Total Debt / EBITDA                                    -            18.434x                  -               -                -             34.709x                  -                  -                    -               -               0.068x                  -                    -                     -               0.000x
Net Debt / EBITDA                                      -             9.520x                  -               -                -             23.855x                  -                  -                    -               -              -3.575x                  -                    -                     -              -0.384x
EBITDA / Int. Expense                                  -                  -                  -               -                -                   -                  -                  -                    -               -                     -                 -                    -                     -                     -
                                                                                                                                                       Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                                 AA                  A                   A              A                -                   A                      -              -                     -              A-                    -               AA+                  AA+                      -                    -
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                     05.12.2011         29.11.2011         19.12.2008      17.12.2012                -          30.03.2009                      -              -                     -     24.02.2009                     -        18.10.2001           12.09.2008                      -                    -
Moody's LT Credit Rating                               -                A2               (P)A2               -               -                    -                     -           Aa1                      -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                    -
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                           -        21.06.2012         21.06.2012                -               -                    -                     -    02.12.2003                      -               -                    -                  -                    -                     -                    -



                                                                                                                            Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial Analysis - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise - Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and corporate banking services. BCV operates primarily in the Canton of Vaud.pdf

  • 1. 20.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCV) attracts deposits and offers retail, private, and Ticker: BCVN SW Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Benchmark: corporate banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, treasury management, Currency: SIX Swiss Ex: BCVN, Currency: CHF SWISS MARKET INDEX (SMI) pension funds, and investment management services, trades in commodities, advises on mergers and acquisitions, and offers securities brokerage services. BCV operates Sector: Financials Industry: Commercial Banks Year: primarily in the Canton of Vaud. Telephone 41-21-212-1000 Revenue (M) 1'321 Business Segments in CHF Sales (M) Geographic Segments in CHF Sales (M) Website www.bcv.ch No of Employees 1'967 Wealth Management 368 Switzerland 1 Address Place Saint-Francois 14 Case postale 300 Lausanne, 1001 Switzerland Corporate Banking 287 Rest of the World Share Price Performance in CHF Retail Banking 214 Price 522.00 1M Return 6.9% Corporate Center 86 52 Week High 524.00 6M Return 3.4% Trading 62 52 Week Low 436.94 52 Wk Return 14.9% 52 Wk Beta 0.67 YTD Return 7.7% Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG3 6% S&P AA Date 05.12.2011 Outlook NEG 8% Moody's - Date - Outlook STABLE Fitch - Date - Outlook - 37% Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E 21% P/E 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 14.4x 14.2x 13.7x EV/EBIT - - - - - - - EV/EBITDA - - - - - - - P/S 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.4x 4.3x 4.2x P/B 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x Div Yield 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% 28% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Wealth Management Gross Margin - - - - - - - EBITDA Margin - - - - - - - Corporate Banking Operating Margin 35.0 36.5 34.5 36.5 51.6 52.5 51.4 Retail Banking Profit Margin 28.8 29.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 30.1 30.4 Switzerland Return on Assets 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Corporate Center Return on Equity 12.1 12.4 11.8 12.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 Trading Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in CHF Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6 EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 4492.4 Tot Debt/Capital 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Cash and ST Investments (M) 6738.0 Tot Debt/Equity 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 Total Debt (M) 8850.0 Eff Tax Rate % 22.6 22.9 23.0 22.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 20.0 Enterprise Value (M) 6624.4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Target price in CHF Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 600 600 100% 0% 0% 0% 20% 20% 17% 17% 17% 17% 20% 500 500 33% 33% 80% 400 400 60% 300 100% 100% 100% 300 40% 80% 80% 83% 83% 83% 83% 80% 200 67% 67% 200 100 20% 100 0 Main First Helvea Dimensions Bank Vontobel Kantonalbank Bank AG 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 Zuercher EVA févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 AG Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 0% 80% 20% 20-Feb-13 522.00 515.00 EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT sell 20-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 0% 83% 17% 19-Feb-13 512.00 515.00 Bank Vontobel AG TERESA NIELSEN hold 530.00 19-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 0% 100% 0% 18-Feb-13 505.50 501.67 Zuercher Kantonalbank ANDREAS VENDITTI market perform 15-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 0% 83% 17% 15-Feb-13 496.00 507.50 Main First Bank AG KILIAN MAIER underperform 490.00 14-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 0% 83% 17% 14-Feb-13 503.00 507.50 Helvea TIM DAWSON neutral 525.00 14-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 0% 83% 17% 13-Feb-13 471.25 492.50 31-Jul-12 0% 100% 0% 12-Feb-13 481.00 492.50 29-Jun-12 0% 100% 0% 11-Feb-13 488.25 492.50 31-May-12 0% 80% 20% 8-Feb-13 485.50 491.67 30-Apr-12 0% 80% 20% 7-Feb-13 486.25 491.67 30-Mar-12 0% 67% 33% 6-Feb-13 487.00 491.67 29-Feb-12 0% 67% 33% 5-Feb-13 490.75 475.00 4-Feb-13 488.75 475.00 1-Feb-13 489.75 475.00 31-Jan-13 486.25 475.00 30-Jan-13 485.25 475.00 29-Jan-13 486.75 475.00 28-Jan-13 493.75 475.00 25-Jan-13 488.75 475.00 24-Jan-13 486.25 475.00 23-Jan-13 486.25 475.00 22-Jan-13 489.00 475.00 21-Jan-13 490.00 475.00 18-Jan-13 488.50 475.00 17-Jan-13 491.75 475.00 16-Jan-13 487.00 475.00 15-Jan-13 486.75 475.00 14-Jan-13 491.25 475.00 11-Jan-13 493.00 475.00 10-Jan-13 491.25 475.00 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 20.02.2013 Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 0% Shares Outstanding (M) 8.6 Switzerland 93.03% 25% 1% 0%0%0% Float 32.7% United States 3.08% 1% 0% Short Interest (M) Britain 1.47% 4% Short Interest as % of Float Luxembourg 1.34% Days to Cover Shorts Unknown Country 0.40% Institutional Ownership 74.88% Germany 0.15% Retail Ownership 24.81% France 0.14% Insider Ownership 0.30% Others 0.40% 75% Institutional Ownership Distribution 94% Government 89.05% Investment Advisor 7.37% Mutual Fund Manager 2.79% Switzerland United States Britain Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Individual 0.40% Luxembourg Unknown Country Germany Pricing data is in CHF Others 0.39% France Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country CANTON OF VAUD 5'762'252 0 3'007'895'544 66.95% 01.01.2012 Co File SWITZERLAND 0% 0% 3% UBS FUND MANAGEMENT 99'092 -291 51'726'024 1.15% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND BLACKROCK 58'620 7'662 30'599'640 0.68% 15.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 7% VANGUARD GROUP INC 55'668 1'997 29'058'696 0.65% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES JUPITER ASSET MANAGE 54'169 -11'500 28'276'218 0.63% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN CREDIT SUISSE ASSET 45'660 775 23'834'520 0.53% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND THORNBURG INVESTMENT 44'400 0 23'176'800 0.52% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES SWISSCANTO FONDSLEIT 31'940 -514 16'672'680 0.37% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND NEW JERSEY DIVISION 24'618 0 12'850'596 0.29% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES PICTET & CIE 23'611 0 12'324'942 0.27% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND 90% ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 22'742 0 11'871'324 0.26% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG GERMANY SCHRODER INVESTMENT 18'595 3'950 9'706'590 0.22% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN BNP PARIBAS INV PART 18'469 -113 9'640'818 0.21% 30.11.2012 ULT-AGG FRANCE VONTOBEL ASSET MANAG 16'600 3'350 8'665'200 0.19% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND Government Investment Advisor Mutual Fund Manager Individual Others SCHRODER INVESTMENT 16'170 0 8'440'740 0.19% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND BARING FUND MANAGERS 12'574 0 6'563'628 0.15% 31.10.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL 10'122 0 5'283'684 0.12% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL VALUE 9'890 -5'912 5'162'580 0.11% 31.03.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES SARASIN 9'201 0 4'802'922 0.11% 30.11.2012 ULT-AGG STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 0 4'214'628 0.09% 31.12.2011 Co File n/a Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source STEIMER OLIVIER 8'074 4'214'628 0.09% 31.12.2011 Co File KIENER PASCAL 7'177 3'746'394 0.08% 31.12.2011 Co File ACHARD AIME 1'642 857'124 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File SCHWARZ JEAN-FRANCOIS 1'583 826'326 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File SAGER BERTRAND 1'566 817'452 0.02% 31.12.2011 Co File Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Financial information is in CHF (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 1'604 1'516 1'438 1'499 1'590 1'727 1'566 1'371 1'352 1'352 1'321 1'029 1'050 1'074 - Cost of Goods Sold Gross Income - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 856 732 674 643 656 645 589 590 608 622 611 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income -977 156 427 378 433 429 325 365 393 377 391 531 551 552 - Interest Expense - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -36 -18 -12 -210 -247 -287 -134 -24 -14 -14 -12 Pretax Income -1'192 174 359 477 558 576 459 390 407 391 403 414 424 433 - Income Tax Expense 8 17 22 20 23 99 101 88 93 90 92 Income Before XO Items -1'200 157 337 457 534 477 358 301 314 301 311 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 3 2 3 4 4 1 1 1 -1 0 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 41.40 34.93 36.39 35.10 36.14 Net Income Adjusted* -1'200 154 335 356 410 473 330 279 313 302 304 312 316 326 EPS Adjusted (141.39) 6.98 39.31 41.36 47.85 55.28 38.39 32.41 36.39 35.10 35.28 36.18 36.66 38.22 Dividends Per Share 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 7.00 14.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 32.25 33.00 Payout Ratio % 40.4 7.6 8.5 11.4 25.5 48.3 60.1 60.4 91.2 88.6 0.88 0.88 0.86 Total Shares Outstanding 8 22 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Diluted Shares Outstanding 9 9 9 9 9 EBITDA *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items 399 368 400 282 321 353 546 1'404 388 1'711 4'735 + Short Term Investments 1'142 1'360 1'489 1'806 2'116 2'146 702 485 2'413 601 693 + Accounts & Notes Receivable + Inventories + Other Current Assets Total Long-Term Assets + Long Term Investments 1'508 1'539 1'573 1'697 1'669 1'671 1'634 2'951 2'966 2'975 3'153 Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation + Net Fixed Assets 424 410 392 381 365 286 283 597 588 628 621 + Other Long Term Assets 3'373 2'714 2'413 4'244 1'857 2'037 1'897 515 710 895 633 Total Current Liabilities + Accounts Payable + Short Term Borrowings 3'318 2'987 2'458 3'554 2'091 2'477 2'361 2'243 1'994 2'749 2'447 + Other Short Term Liabilities 2'250 2'130 1'854 4'925 2'336 2'084 1'592 926 974 944 867 Total Long Term Liabilities + Long Term Borrowings 9'255 7'628 6'331 5'475 6'684 6'938 6'508 5'937 5'582 5'202 5'968 + Other Long Term Borrowings 254 253 332 484 628 765 1'076 704 704 704 704 Total Liabilities 31'618 29'789 27'950 32'088 30'176 32'816 33'138 33'215 33'018 35'306 37'189 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 20 21 14 15 14 15 13 14 14 20 1 + Share Capital & APIC 1'695 1'714 1'722 1'596 1'345 891 613 529 445 446 361 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -814 575 853 1'176 1'495 1'615 1'847 1'975 2'108 2'131 2'249 Total Shareholders Equity 901 2'310 2'588 2'787 2'855 2'521 2'473 2'518 2'567 2'597 2'611 Total Liabilities & Equity 32'519 32'098 30'537 34'875 33'031 35'337 35'611 35'733 35'585 37'903 39'800 Book Value Per Share 103.78 104.24 304.18 325.40 331.73 291.80 286.37 291.49 297.12 300.04 303.28 410.56 418.23 402.06 Tangible Book Value Per Share 89.84 100.82 293.24 314.24 329.80 290.44 285.73 290.95 296.69 295.97 298.98 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income -1'200 154 335 454 530 473 356 301 313 302 311 313 316 323 + Depreciation & Amortization 1'357 262 1 -77 -110 -175 35 102 58 98 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 224 -9 82 119 130 144 3 -1 2 -1 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital -34 6 -6 -30 1 85 -79 -11 25 -22 Cash From Operating Activities 347 413 412 467 551 527 315 391 397 377 + Disposal of Fixed Assets + Capital Expenditures + Increase in Investments + Decrease in Investments + Other Investing Activities Cash From Investing Activities + Dividends Paid -121 + Change in Short Term Borrowings + Increase in Long Term Borrowings + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings + Increase in Capital Stocks + Decrease in Capital Stocks + Other Financing Activities Cash From Financing Activities -121 Net Changes in Cash Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 347 413 412 467 525 498 304 379 377 353 Free Cash Flow To Firm Free Cash Flow To Equity Free Cash Flow per Share 40.87 18.71 48.33 54.50 61.09 57.90 35.34 43.99 43.77 41.02 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 20.2x 5.2x 7.1x 12.2x 12.8x 7.7x 11.8x 13.5x 13.0x 13.4x 14.4x 14.2x 13.7x EV to EBIT EV to EBITDA Price to Sales 0.4x 2.1x 1.2x 2.2x 3.2x 2.5x 1.7x 2.6x 3.1x 2.9x 3.2x 4.4x 4.3x 4.2x Price to Book 0.8x 1.4x 0.7x 1.2x 1.8x 1.7x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x 1.5x 1.6x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 6.3% 5.1% 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin EBITDA Margin - - - Operating Margin -103.7% 15.3% 41.7% 33.9% 36.8% 36.7% 32.4% 35.0% 36.5% 34.5% 36.5% 51.6% 52.5% 51.4% Profit Margin -127.3% 15.1% 32.7% 40.8% 45.1% 40.5% 35.5% 28.8% 29.1% 27.7% 29.1% 30.3% 30.1% 30.4% Return on Assets -3.6% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Return on Equity -104.4% 9.7% 13.8% 17.0% 18.9% 17.7% 14.3% 12.1% 12.4% 11.8% 12.0% 9.3% 9.3% 9.4% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) Tot Debt/Capital 0.93 0.82 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76 Tot Debt/Equity 13.95 4.60 3.40 3.24 3.07 3.73 3.59 3.25 2.95 3.06 3.22 Others Asset Turnover 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 Accounts Receivable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Inventory Turnover Effective Tax Rate 9.6% 6.1% 4.3% 4.2% 17.1% 22.1% 22.6% 22.9% 23.0% 22.8% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision BANQUE CANTO- VONTOBEL HLDG- VERWALTUNGS-U- BASLER KANTON- LUZERNER KAN- PARTNERS GROUP UBS AG-REG CREDIT SUISS-REG BANK SARASIN-B GAM HOLDING AG LIECHTENSTEIN-BR ST GALLER KA-REG EFG INTERNAT AG VZ HOLDING AG VALIANT HLDG AG REG R BR PC REG J Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 52-Week High 524.00 16.39 27.85 28.80 16.25 33.00 42.45 404.50 11.95 84.00 130.00 113.60 360.00 111.64 223.70 52-Week High Date 20.02.2013 25.01.2013 07.02.2013 20.02.2012 15.02.2013 20.02.2013 22.02.2012 19.02.2013 20.02.2013 20.02.2012 11.02.2013 27.04.2012 06.02.2013 02.03.2012 11.01.2013 52-Week Low 456.96 9.69 15.97 24.50 9.92 17.80 25.50 320.75 4.77 60.00 85.00 98.00 311.00 74.35 157.20 52-Week Low Date 07.03.2012 24.07.2012 03.08.2012 08.10.2012 25.05.2012 28.06.2012 16.11.2012 21.05.2012 24.07.2012 21.11.2012 26.07.2012 16.11.2012 29.02.2012 31.08.2012 04.06.2012 Daily Volume 17'955 6'729'041 4'236'189 1'193 327'314 62'761 9'127 1'546 94'015 5'665 3'371 794 2'056 38'297 26'033 Current Price (2/dd/yy) 522.00 15.31 27.34 27.00 16.15 33.00 31.80 401.00 11.70 80.25 129.50 98.90 360.00 87.35 213.50 52-Week High % Change -0.4% -6.6% -1.8% -6.2% -0.6% 0.0% -25.1% -0.9% -2.1% -4.5% -0.4% -12.9% 0.0% -21.8% -4.6% 52-Week Low % Change 14.2% 58.1% 71.2% 10.2% 62.8% 85.4% 24.7% 25.0% 145.3% 33.8% 52.4% 0.9% 15.8% 17.5% 35.8% Total Common Shares (M) 8.6 3'747.4 1'292.7 62.9 177.1 63.4 28.4 5.5 146.7 5.8 7.8 29.9 8.5 15.8 25.4 Market Capitalization 4'492.4 58'727.0 36'111.5 1'698.3 2'961.2 2'145.0 979.4 2'234.9 1'716.0 474.7 1'036.0 3'096.7 3'060.0 1'379.5 5'700.5 Total Debt 8'415.0 267'400.0 330'510.0 2'024.9 17.5 7'456.5 1'844.5 5'065.0 1'269.7 928.9 1.4 7'662.3 5'639.3 6'379.3 - Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Minority Interest 1.0 4'353.0 6'786.0 37.4 - - 101.2 - 24.6 19.0 - 361.6 - - 0.8 Cash and Equivalents 6'742.0 66'383.0 63'708.0 2'764.8 600.1 2'999.6 7'716.7 2'183.0 3'286.2 5'389.3 361.2 3'907.4 2'920.5 1'946.1 96.7 Enterprise Value - 264'097.0 - - - 6'978.0 - - - - 804.8 - - - 5'605.2 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 1'321.2 37'392.0 38'313.0 831.5 812.2 890.7 555.0 501.6 1'078.2 320.7 143.8 935.8 685.4 693.4 448.8 LTM 1'321.2 37'470.0 38'313.0 795.5 983.4 861.4 569.7 501.6 1'146.3 314.0 144.3 940.7 685.4 663.4 480.4 CY+1 1'029.3 26'730.4 26'558.3 680.7 581.8 842.4 407.0 509.0 791.2 217.0 148.5 672.0 427.0 386.0 425.0 CY+2 1'050.3 27'411.1 27'461.6 741.3 621.8 912.0 407.0 523.0 796.1 221.0 170.7 648.0 437.0 391.0 509.3 EV/Total Revenue LFY - 6.9x - - - 6.8x - - - - 2.7x - - - 9.3x LTM - 6.9x - - - 7.0x - - - - 2.7x - - - 8.7x CY+1 - - - - 4.5x - - - - - - - - - 13.2x CY+2 - - - - 4.3x - - - - - - - - - 10.9x EBITDA LFY - 17'464.0 - - - 213.9 - - - - 66.4 - - - 236.2 LTM - 17'575.0 - - - 202.6 - - - - 64.7 - - - 250.0 CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - 65.3 - - - 267.2 CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - 80.5 - - - 324.7 EV/EBITDA LFY - 14.8x - - - 28.2x - - - - 5.8x - - - 17.6x LTM - 16.1x - - - 29.8x - - - - 5.9x - - - 16.6x CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 20.9x CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 17.1x EPS LFY 35.48 1.68 0.77 1.63 -0.52 1.76 0.38 27.28 -0.52 0.75 6.48 5.99 19.51 6.85 7.75 LTM 36.14 -0.75 0.84 1.04 -0.32 1.55 1.34 27.28 -2.21 2.07 6.33 7.37 19.79 7.90 8.46 CY+1 36.18 0.93 2.70 1.62 0.87 2.32 2.91 30.88 0.79 2.69 6.40 9.34 21.85 7.28 9.67 CY+2 36.66 1.21 3.11 1.83 1.09 2.68 3.60 31.97 0.93 4.51 7.69 7.75 22.48 6.84 11.69 P/E LFY 14.4x - 32.5x 26.0x - 21.3x 23.7x 14.7x - 38.8x 20.5x 13.4x 18.2x 11.1x 25.2x LTM 14.7x 15.3x 12.3x 26.0x - 20.6x 23.7x 14.7x - 38.8x 20.6x 14.0x 15.2x 14.4x 25.7x CY+1 14.4x 16.5x 10.1x 16.6x 18.6x 14.2x 10.9x 13.0x 14.9x 29.8x 20.2x 10.6x 16.5x 12.0x 22.1x CY+2 14.2x 12.6x 8.8x 14.8x 14.8x 12.3x 8.8x 12.5x 12.6x 17.8x 16.8x 12.8x 16.0x 12.8x 18.3x Revenue Growth 1 Year (2.3%) (8.5%) (10.3%) (2.3%) (15.8%) - (8.3%) (28.6%) 80.6% (7.7%) 8.1% (6.6%) (4.7%) (1.9%) 0.3% 5 Year (4.5%) (10.7%) 30.2% (5.5%) - (5.5%) (7.6%) (16.3%) 399.5% (13.5%) 10.2% (3.5%) (4.1%) (0.2%) 13.9% EBITDA Growth 1 Year - - - - - - - - - - 3.9% - - - (26.4%) 5 Year - (29.1%) - - - (9.9%) - - - - - - - - 7.6% EBITDA Margin LTM - 47.0% - - - 23.5% - - - - 44.9% - - - 52.0% CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - 44.0% - - - 62.9% CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - 47.2% - - - 63.7% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 322.4% 582.6% 927.6% 164.7% 0.8% 498.2% 119.7% 271.9% 128.7% 105.6% 0.7% 283.6% 364.2% 351.2% 0.0% Total Debt / Capital % 76.3% 84.2% 88.6% 61.5% 0.8% 83.3% 52.9% 73.1% 55.7% 50.8% 0.7% 71.4% 78.5% 77.8% 0.0% Total Debt / EBITDA - 18.434x - - - 34.709x - - - - 0.068x - - - 0.000x Net Debt / EBITDA - 9.520x - - - 23.855x - - - - -3.575x - - - -0.384x EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating AA A A A - A - - - A- - AA+ AA+ - - S&P LT Credit Rating Date 05.12.2011 29.11.2011 19.12.2008 17.12.2012 - 30.03.2009 - - - 24.02.2009 - 18.10.2001 12.09.2008 - - Moody's LT Credit Rating - A2 (P)A2 - - - - Aa1 - - - - - - - Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 - - - - 02.12.2003 - - - - - - - Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |