Insight & Data Compilation on Covid-19 the NEW NORMALl in indonesia

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Welcome Home Economy
The New Normal:
Data & Insight compilation

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Coronavirus
The Current Landscape

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From This To This
Per 18April 2020

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$ 63 63 bilion to
$ 113 billion
AIRLINES
Source: IATA, Mar 9
$ 3,5 bilion
(US only, 3-month)
$ 225 bilion
(US only, 3-month)
$ 24 bilion
(US only)
$ 430 bilion
(US only, 3-month)
RETAIL
HOSPITALITY RESTAURANT LUXURY
Source: Financial Times/National

Federations of Retaliers, Mar 30
$ 66 bilion to
$ 77 billion
LUXURY
Source: Bain & Company, Mar 26
Source: American Hotel &

Lodging Association, Mar 25
Source: NATIONAL RESTAURANT

Association, Mar 18
Source: CNBC/Tourism

Economics, Mar 11
In this report, we look at companies in two categories which have been hardest hit by COVID-19. Here are some estimates of how much the
pandemic will be costing some of the most impacted industries in 2020*. Amounts are in USD.
Global Marketers Hardest Hit by COVID-19

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Covid-19?
Bagaimana saat pandemi
mempengaruhi merek/produk?

Kasus pertama
virus Corona
di luar China
Kasus pertama
virus Corona
di Malaysia
Kasus pertama
virus Corona
di Singapura
PRODUK KESEHATAN PALING DICARI (HOT ITEM)
Antusisme pada produk kesehatan untuk pencegahan virus Corona
Antiseptik
Masker
mulut
Sabun
Cuci
Tangan
Chart: iPrice Insight - Source Google Trends - Created with Datawrapper
03/01/2020 07/01/2020 11/01/2020 15/01/2020 19/01/2020 23/01/2020 27/01/2020 31/01/2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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Tren Minat Belanja Online

Produk Kesehatan selama Musim Covid-19

di Indonesia
1007%
Termometer
167%
Masker Mulut
1986%Blackmores Vit. C
1395%
Dettol 5585%Pembersih Tangan
Source: iPriceGroup melacak minat belanja online orang Indonesia

terhadap sejumlah produk selama masa COVID-19. Instrumen yang dipakai untuk mengetahui
ketertarikan konsumen adalah data impression di Google Analityc. Diambil dari 1-29 Feb dan
1-29 Maret 2020

Tren Minat Belanja Online

Produk Kesehatan selama Musim Covid-19

di Indonesia
Source: iPriceGroup melacak minat belanja online orang Indonesia terhadap sejumlah produk selama masa COVID-19. Instrumen yang dipakai
untuk mengetahui ketertarikan konsumen adalah data impression di Google Analityc. Diambil dari 1-29 Feb dan 1-29 Maret 2020
1572%Webcam414%
Aloevera
377%
Kertas Folio
1036%Sepeda Polygon159%
Nintendo
156%
Mie
Goreng
Anggur
Merah
78%

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Source: NIELSEN Race Against The Virus Indonesia Consumer’s Report
AS INDONESIA CONFIRMED ITS FIRST CASE, COOKING
AND PHARMA PRODUCTS INCREASED MOST IN GROWTH

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Source: NIELSEN Race Against The Virus Indonesia Consumer’s Report
HYGIENE-RELATED CATEGORIES AND SHELF-STABLE FOOD HAD
HIGHEST GROWTH GAP IN COVID-19 LOCAL STAGE

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Behaviour
What Would be Consumer Behaviour
Threshold

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TRY THE “NEW WAYS”
Online consultation Online education courses Telecommuting Software
Pay for online
entertainment
Watch live broadcast
through mobile phone
Social e-commerce/
Community groups
Buy indoor ﬁtness
equipment
Try online banking
Source: KANTAR COVID19 Impact on Indonesian Attitudes & Behaviour Learning for Brands

After the Pandemic, Huge Potential for Rebound and Some Behaviour Will Stay
Out-of-home

dining and

gathering

Travel Out-of-home

entertainment
Basic epidemic

prevention

products
Food &

beverage
Medical/

life insurance
Clothing &

accessories

Advanced

epidemic

prevention

products
Nutrition

& health

products
Household

cleaning

products
Personal care

products

Medicine

Fitness group

classes

Financial

management/

stock

Hairdressing/

manicure

Beauty

products
Still buy masks &

disinfectant for storage

at home

Turn wearing masks

into a daily habit

Pay more to the sterilization &

disinfection

SPENDING INCREASED

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Lesson from China and Implication
for Indonesia
PAY ATTENTION to the changes of consumer
mindsets, consumption behaviour and
lifestyles

ACCELERATE digital transformation and
bring digital initiatives into the real business

STRENGTHEN brand-owned digital platform
and embrace social commerce including
community-based eCommerce

PROACTIVELY ADOPT new digital
commerce tools

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1. Is FMCG growth negatively impacted by COVID-19?

2. Are Indonesians panic buying?

3. What does panic buying mean? Are people
expanding their basket size?

4. Are germ-killing categories the only ones beneﬁting
from COVID-19?

5. Is category growth only temporary?

6. Is Online the only channel that is growing?
BUSTING
THE MYTHS

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One Big week
(bought more in a single week than at
any point during last 8 weeks in
comparison to average of 4 weeks  
Pre COVID-19)
Identifying Changes in Purchase Behaviour
on A Week-by-Week Period

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Are Indonesians Panic Buying?
An extended uplift after pay-week is seen in the 1st week after
the outbreak only in Jakarta Greater. We can expect similar
pattern rolling out in other regions as they apply quarantine.

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Is Online the Only Channel That is Growing?
Despite fastest growth coming from Online, a majority of consumers
still shop in Traditional Trade and Modern Trade.

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Direct Manufacturer Selling
Order via whatsapp directly to manufacturer’s representative.

Customers can get Sido Muncul’s product by WA in their area/
region.
Food Hall (MT Supermarket)
Whatsapp number of store manager
shared to consumers for quicker order
with direct access on product
availability
PD Pasar Jaya (Wet Market)
Order via phone, delivered via ojek
Looking Ahead, Creativity Kicks in for Retailers and Manufacturers
to Experiment Alternative Ways to Reach Their Shoppers

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BUSTING THE MYTHS+ Implications
1 2 3 4 5 6
Is FMCG growth negatively
impacted by COVID-19?
Myth / Fact?
Fact (Partial)
FMCG growth is still
seen for Upper-Mid
SES, but slowing down
for Lower SES
What’s Next?
Lower SES will be most
impacted in the long run
if quarantine continues
to limit daily income.
Are Indonesians panic
buying?
Fact (Partial)
So far only Jakarta
Greater shows different
behaviour, with
additional uplift after

pay day.
Expect to see similar
pattern in other regions
as and when they apply
quarantine
What does panic buying
mean? Are people
expanding their basket
size?
Fact
Shoppers are opting for
bigger volume and
expanding their category
repertoire.
Ensure availability of big
packs in store to cater
needs of shoppers
seeking to upsize
Are germ-killing categories
the only ones benefiting
from COVID-19?
Myth
Personal Care is not the
only sector growing!
Consumers are also
stocking up other
categories to
accompany more
activities at home.
Less Out of Home, more
In Home with positive
outlook for categories
catering specific
purpose: Protect (germ-
kill), Prevent (nutrition),
Comfort Eating (ready to
eat / easy to cook).
Is category growth only
temporary?
Myth (to be proven)
Some categories see a
bounce back entering
April, but too soon to
conclude as pandemic
has not reached its
peak.
Dairy, Packaged Food
and Beverages
expected to grow as we
enter Ramadhan with
more time spent at
home, though possibly
at a slower rate than last
year
Is Online the only
channel that is
growing?
Myth
Online is the fastest
growing channel
but not the only one
growing! Modern
Trade and Gifting.
Be creative in
expanding different
types of
distribution
channels that give
a solution to
barriers for
consumers to have
access to your
product.

!22Source: KANTAR COVID19 Impact on Indonesian Attitudes & Behaviour Learning for Brands
Spend most of my time at home
Watch a lot more TV
Reduces eating out, cooking
more
Switched to more online
shopping
Increased online education
Consuming more vitamins/
jamu
Started worrying about job/
income
Reduced spending to save more
Thinking not to mudik
% who have changed following behaviour because of COVID
79%
31%
43%
10%
16%
56%
38%
26%
20%
Total
Kota besar
Kota kecil
Staying
at Home
Impact
Changing
Online
Behaviour
Nutrition
Financial
Concerns
Festive
Changes
Nearly 80% Indonesians
spending most of their
time at home !
Online behaviour see a
rise bit no major swings
Lifestyle choices
impacted higher in big
cities
Financial stress cuts
across cities
Behavioural & Attitudinal Changes Owing to COVID-19

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#1
PROACTIVE
HEALTH
MINDED BUYING
#2
REACTIVE HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
#3
PANTRY
PREPARATION
Prioritize product
essentials to virus
containment, health
and public safety.

E.g. face mask
First local transmission
with no link to other
location + first
COVID-19 related
death/s
Interest rises in
products that support
overall maintenance of
healt and wellness.
Minimal localized
cases of COVID-19
generally linked to an
arrival from another
infected country
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR SHIFTS
Pantry stockpilling of
shelf-stable foods & a
broader assortment of
health-safety products;
spike in store visits;
growing basket size
Multiple cases of local
transmission & multiple
deaths linked to
COVID-19
COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS
Source:; NIELSEN Race Against the Virus; Indonesia Customers’ Response Towards COVID-19 2020
#4
QUARANTINED
LIVING
PREPARATION
#5
RESTRICTION
LIVING
#6
LIVING A NEW
NORMAL
Severely restricted
shopping,

trips, online fulfillment is
limited, price concerns
rise as limited stock
availability impacts
pricing in some cases.
Mass cases of
COVID-19 communities
ordered into lockdown.
Increased online
shopping, a decline in
store visits, rising out-
of-stock, strains on
supply chain.
Localized COVID-19
emergency actions.
Percentage of people
diagnosed continues to
increase.
People return to daily
routines (work, school,
etc) but opearate with a
renewed cautiousness
about health. Permanent
shifts in supply chain, the
use of e-commerce &
hygine practices.
COVID-19 quarantines
lift beyond region/
country’s most affected
hotspot & life starts to
return to normal.
NIELSEN SIX CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR THRESHOLDS OF COVID-19 CONCERN

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InsightsPeople & Brands, Online Shopper,

Category & Purchase Behaviour

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13% 27% 12% 35% 13%Singapore
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
Vietnam
Taiwan
Malaysia
Philippines
33%
17%21%4%27%30%
15% 21% 5% 27%
33% 29% 4% 20% 13%
41%
40%
6%
28% 30% 10% 22% 10%
24%38%15%18%
29%
19% 6% 23% 12%
7% 17% 4%
COVID-19 Crisis is An Increasing Concern for Most People in Asia
The current corona virus situation concerns me hugely and…
Is Impacting my day-to-day life Doesn’t impacting my day-to-day life as much
Source: KANTAR; Stay Connected with Online FMCG Shoppers 2020

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It Has Pushed People to Focus More
on Their Financial Security
This situation demands us to be even more proactive

about ﬁnancial planning and security for future

The corona virus situation has no impact on how

I think about ﬁnancial planning and security

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Concern on Scarcity of The Essentials  
is Still Not an Issue for Most
I often panic about running out of The essentials, and end up

stocking up more than I would normally

I am conﬁdent that we wont end up in a situation of scarcity.

Hence, my shopping behaviour is same as be

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The Home Economy:
More Online Shopping, Less Oﬄine Shopping

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VT Urban Thailand Indonesia Phillipines
Average Value
Growth Across
SEA YoY
Everyone is Buying Online, Seeing the Need
Now to Purchase More FMCG Online.

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More People Are Shopping Online by Extending Their
Shopping Basket into Smaller Sectors Like Household
products, Not Only for Food & Personal Care

3 Keys Take-Away
Impact on
Consumer Behaviour
Heavier baskets.

SEA, panic buying likely to
spread beyond key cities.

With more lockdown
policy’s, shopping trips will
be reduced and people will
focus on bigger baskets.

Impact on Category
Stockpiling food items.

More time at home,
consumers will prioritized
on stockpiling food items.

Products with longer shelf
life or convenience will
continue to gain traction.

Impact on Channel
Rise of E-commerce and
Delivery services

As consumers adapt to
social distancing, online
channel will fast become
the safest & most
convenient option during
the quarantine time. C-
store important for top up.

Implication for
Manufacturers
Important for brands to have
visibility and the relevant
communication to win in this
space and speciﬁc period.  
Focus on bigger packs as well as
ensure availability in online

Implication for Retailers
Retailers need to ensure stock
availability and be careful about
promotions ($ loss). Start having
online platform and increase
delivery capacity.

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Source: COVID-19 MARKETING BEST PRACTICE Retail / Food & Beverage An R3 White Paper. April 2020
Our review of business response in China and tracking of consumer behaviour

and industry impact has led us to develop a three-pronged, action-based

approach that will assist marketing recovery.

……………. …………….
……………. ………..FUTURE-FIT-STRATEGY
Develop a future-fit strategy for
the NEW NORMAL
As well as managing the present, now is the time to plan
for the future. What is abnormal scenario has revealed
is that brands that come out stronger have demonstrated
the ability to pivot and adapt quickly.
……………………….………
MITIGATE
Make marketing as effective as possible within
each company's parameter of limitations
Deciding what to keep, freeze, eliminate, and invest in will
be a challenge every marketer will face. These decisions
need to be based on data, but as the impact for each
industry and business will depend on multiple factors
including compant fiscal outlook, consumer trends, and
geopolitical stability, there is no one set of rules that will
apply to everyone.
EDUCATE
Mitigate & Prepare for the Future

!34Source: COVID-19 MARKETING BEST PRACTICE Retail / Food & Beverage An R3 White Paper. April 2020
EDUCATE: Keep your team informed on evolving trends and developments.
Data-driven decision-making on what is essential and
non-essential.
What is going to empower my team and partners to
work under extraordinary circumstances?

What is essential now and for the future? If we need to
make cuts, where do we do so efficiently and
strategically?

How are we measuring up to our competitors in terms
of preparedness? How can we be ready to act on
opportunity when the New Normal sets in?
Understanding the robustness of current partnerships,
process, and frameworks against your industry and
business outlook for the next 18 – 24 months.
Increasing efficiency in agency partnerships and
media spend.
Obtaining a health check of your Digital Ecosystem.
Reviewing areas of your marketing and digital
strategy which might not reflect anticipated changes
in consumer behaviour.
Revisiting your agency model against economic,
industry, business, and geopolitical trends anticipated
over the next 18 – 36 months.
What are our strengths and vulnerabilities in an
impacted local, regional, and global market?

How can we move our marketing strategy towards
being ready for other extraordinary events and
circumstances in the future?

What’s the best way to work with our agency
partners? How can we increase ROI on our
partnerships?

Action for Marketing Recovery
MITIGATE
FUTURE-FIT
QUESTIONS TO ASK
QUESTIONS TO ASK

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01 02
03 04
• Indonesia consumers started to have concerns on COVID-19 that it
will last for months. Despite the majority is thinking that the risk of
spreading is low, people are keeping themselves up to date with TV
and social media.

• Hence the increase in TV viewing habit - approximately 2 weeks when
government announced school distance learning and working from
home.
• Categories bought by upper SES were Food, beverage, homecare and
pharmaceuticals. Among middle SES week 10 purchase hiccup happened
across all FMCG groups.

• Highlights on several categories in week 10 are Seasonings for cooking.
Over The Counter pharmacies (OTC), and hygiene related products. Some
brands that belongs to high demand FMCG categories, now pushes
their ads more on TV.
• The COVID-19 situation have started to impact people’s activities on
travel, visiting malls, and outdoor entertainment. As for getting food
through delivery services and occasional shopping, people have benn
doing it relatively at the same rate as before.

• As dining out is done less often, consequently home cooking is
preferred choice which drive higher sales of fresh product in Modern
Trade. Consuming health supplements & doing exercise to maintain
health are also claimed as activities done more often,.
• Benchmarking Jakarta to total Indonesia, early reaction related to
pantry preparation is seen in week 10 when the President announced
ﬁrst conﬁrmed cases;Even thought monthly shopping was done in the
previous week after payday, indication of pantry stocking in week 10 is
seen from upper SES from hypermarket/super and middle SES across
Modern Trade.

• Online shopping started to become an option for those who preferred
to shop less in Malls & modern trade presumably to avoid crowds.

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• Supermarket and hypermarket are on the rise driven by mostly
Upper and some Middle SES where people might look for
suﬃcient stock and more product alternatives in the absence of
their usually preferred items

• Minimarket is also growing driven by all SES, as the relevant
channel for proximity to avoid large crowds and avoid using
public transportations.

• Monitor stock allocation as there are risks to distribution line.

• Consider Delivery services with simple ordering method and

• Utilize Omni channel communication, i.e TV, Internet, Social
Media, Messaging/Chat apps
• Supermarket and hypermarket are on the rise driven by mostly
Upper and some Middle SES where people might look for
suﬃcient stock and more product alternatives in the absence of
their usually preferred items

• Minimarket is also growing driven by all SES, as the relevant
channel for proximity to avoid large crowds and avoid using
public transportations.

• Monitor stock allocation as there are risks to distribution line.

• Consider Delivery services with simple ordering method and

• Utilizes Omni channel communication, i.e TV, Internet, Social
Media, Messaging/Chat apps
• Consumers are increasing spending not only on health related
products but also on daily basic needs.

• Find ways to make your product relevant through embracing
health trends and showing empathy to win consumers heart.

• Supporting consumers needs to #DiRumahAja and WFH.

• Helping children and teenagers enjoy their distance learning
moments.

• With the restriction of going outside their home, shopping
frequency is likely to decrease. Bigger packs and buy more save
more is getting important.
WHAT'S NEXT FOR
RETAILERS?
WHAT'S NEXT FOR
MANUFACTURERS?

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Data compile and redesigned by:

Seno Pramuadji
All image by: UNPLASH

Insight & Data Compilation on Covid-19 the NEW NORMALl in indonesia

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