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India's fiscal deficit nightmare 2020 21
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Shantanu Basu
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Brief description of the huge fiscal crisis the Govt. of India faces
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India's fiscal deficit nightmare 2020 21
1.
India'sGDP in2019-20 =
Rs. 250 lakhcrore approx. 3.5% of GDP fiscal deficit=Rs. 8.75 lakhcrore or 27% of BE 2019-20 AddliabilitiesnotprovidedinBE2019-20 FCI procurementloansonbehalf of GOI:Rs.4 lakhcrore approx. Unpaidvendorbills (incl.MSME) = Rs. 7 lakhcrore approx. InterestliabilityonRs.8.75 lakhcrore deficit@11% = Rs.one lakhcrore approx. Bank recapitalizationrequired=at leastRs.3 lakhcrore Unmetcarryover Defence capex needs=Rs. 5 lakhcrore Otherunmetbudgetarydemands=Rs. 10 lakhcrore GROSS LIABILITIES = Rs. 38.75 lakhcrore Real fiscal deficit as%age of GDP = 15.5% India'sGDP in2020-21 = Rs. 190 lakhcrore approx. (-23.9% from 2019-20) BE 2020-21 = Rs.35 lakh crore approx.(uncoveredwithoutrevenuesof Rs.20 lakhcrore) Add FCI procurementloansonbehalf of GOI= Rs. 5 lakhcrore approx. Unpaidvendorbills(incl.MSME) = Rs. 8 lakhcrore approx. Bank recapitalizationrequired=at leastRs.10 lakhcrore (est.NPAsof Rs.50 lakh crore) UnmetDefence capex needs=Rs.7 lakhcrore approx. Otherunmetbudgetarydemands,incl.CoVid-19fiscal package &GST arrears to states = Rs. 20 lakh crore NET TOTAL = Rs.70 lakhcrore or 219% of Union Budget2020-21 Additional interestcostof Rs. 50 lakhcrore @ 11% = Rs. 5.50 lakh crore (plusRs.8 lakhcrore owing to existingservicing) GROSS LIABILITIES= Rs. 83.50 lakhcrore Real fiscal deficitas%age of GDP = 33.40%