Briefly discusses the limitations of locking down India

1. 1
CoVid-19 Lockdown: Misplaced Priority for India-I
Shantanu Basu
In the last week or thereabout, there has been much talk of imposing a lockdown of
states/affected districts/cities for the practise of 'social distancing' to break the contagion
chain of CoVid-19 in India to pre-empt/minimize community transmission of the virus.
However, there are grave limitations in India that policy makers need to review before
embarking on this foolhardy exercise.
So far, CoVid's spread is limited to urban and surrounding semi-urban areas. Relatively low
disposable incomes preclude purchase of commodious apartments. It is not infrequent that a
family of 5-8 individuals cohabit 2-3 small rooms; the situation is far worse in densely
populated areas where families live cheek-by-jowl in densely populated makeshift hovels or
semi-pucca hovels, often sharing a common toilet and water spout. Joint families in a single
building similarly often have high population density, though not sharing common
conveniences. Another area of deep concern are our grossly overcrowded prisons that often
house under-trials for over 15 years in many cases without even the first hearing. How would
preventing people from coming out help in high-density areas?
A large number of Indian employers have been recruiting young workers at relatively low
wages from tier-II & III cities and posted them to overseas project sites across the world.
Many of these have returned and may not have been quarantined/self-isolated while many are
freely criss-crossing the country on domestic flights, trains and inter-state buses; only a
handful have been caught by fellow passengers. How would lockdown help when these
employees return to their modest dwellings?
Then there is the issue of providing daily necessities in locked down areas. Supermarkets are
few and far between and not always accessible to the common citizen. In such case, reliance
is placed on neighbourhood grocers, fish and meat mongers, mostly in unauthorised markets
on government land, closely placed to each other. A visit to Secunderabad's wholesale fish
market or Kolkata's pavement shops is ample proof of huge congestion. Then, none of these
probably come within the legal definition of a 'commercial establishment'. Even if a locality
is locked down and these establishments shut down, how would residents get their daily
supply of food and other rations? Panic buying that few can afford on a shoestring budget is
hardly the way to go. How long can one stock up? What happens to fresh foods? How will
those be distributed without crowding/rioting?
Next, is the issue of millions of migrant labour, particularly from the NE and Eastern India,
that are out of work presently and crowding railway and bus stations in other states seeking
immediate return passage home. If state borders are not sealed for passenger traffic forthwith
and passenger train, bus and airline services not severely curtailed/banned for at least a
fortnight, how would lockdown succeed in breaking the CoVid chain? Already cases are
being reported of persons testing positive without any overseas travel record. What logistical
and financial arrangements would states make to prevent such labour from leaving their states
of employment? Pushed into a corner, law and order issues could become a highly likely
outcome.
The first reports of CoVid emerged from China in end-December 2019, though the
formidable magnitude became apparent only by mid-January, 2020, i.e. about two months
back. The availability of adequate and well spread out serviceable isolation centres and path
labs across India is rudimentary. This is when media reports suggest that India had a stock of

2. 2
just 1.8 lakh testing kits, of which 0.60 lakh were date expired. Nor is there any media report
or PIB release that speaks of mobile testing centres being available to service locked down
locations. A sprawling metropolis like Kolkata has just five screening labs mostly
concentrated in eastern parts of the city. In the event of a lockdown, how would sick people
reach these centres for a swab test? Will states provide adequate number of ID ambulances
and mobile teams of medics and para-medics to access locked down locations? In the event
of a mass break-out of CoVid-positive case in such areas, quarantine centres would become
impossible to access them in the absence of public transport, ambulances, etc.
Media photos available on the web sites of major national dailies uniformly show beds lined
up in a large hall, often without even a metre's space between two beds and mostly with
common toilets. If sick people from locked down locations have to be shifted here, infection
could potentially spread faster via attending personnel that do not have proper suits to cover
themselves, and other body protective gear. Just how effective would locking down be a
solution? Rather, it has strong potential to be a spreader of infection.
Videos and photos from Wuhan freely available on the Net show daily (sometimes many
times a day) giant-scale spraying of disinfectants in all public areas of the locked down Hubei
province, particularly in Wuhan. The local authorities used special trucks and other vehicles,
drones and spraying and cleaning equipment, most of which are not available in India. So,
how would locking down help?
Then there is the tricky issue of human livelihood in locked down areas. PM Modi realised
this when in his speech, day before, he fervently appealed to employers not to deduct wages
of their employees for absence from duty. Already Indigo Airlines has announced a 10% pay
cut for its junior employees that probably get larger as the airline' s losses mount. MSMEs in
such areas are the largest employers that would the worst affected. How does GOI propose to
overcome the formidable financial implications of providing bridging assistance to such
businesses and shop establishments during the period of the lock down?
Many of my colleagues and friends contend that online home delivery and financial services
would fill the gap that arises from the closure of all commercial establishments. They are
oblivious to the fact that nearly all online sellers are not just out of stock but are close to
shutting down home delivery services, even without locking down. Even neighbourhood
supermarkets and chemists are finding it impossible to execute home deliveries, such is the
staggering volume of orders. Many home delivery bike and taxi drivers have quit and
returned to their native villages and towns already, such is the level of mass panic. How
would debit cards and online funds transfer portals behave as pressure on the Net rises
exponentially is anyone's guess. Already Netflix and Amazon Prime have reduced the
resolution of online movies broadcast in Europe to reduce the pressure on the internet; and
our Net services are often abominably unreliable. So how would this home delivery system
work in the event of a lock down. (1104 words) To be continued
The author is a senior public policy analyst and author

3. 3
CoVid-19 Lockdown: Misplaced Priority for India-II
Shantanu Basu
Last, but not the least, is the issue of international quality protective clothing for municipal,
police, fire service, medical, drivers, disinfection and garbage clearing contractors, etc. As of
now, there is a run on the market for masks and hand sanitizers, with disposable surgical
masks (that are sold in unhygenic conditions, many even recycled from garbage dumps and
dyed in various colours). A Kolkata chemist last week sold me disposable masks at Rs. 30
each (the N-95, again of dubious quality up to Rs. 400 against its usual price of Rs. 90-95)
and a 100 ml alcohol-based sanitizer (claiming 76% alcohol content) for a phenomenal Rs.
250 each! On a recent visit to a state hospital in Kolkata, I noticed medics and para-medics
wearing their usual green disposable caps and gowns and blue and white cotton suits. Few
had gloves on them; nor was a bottle of hand sanitizer anywhere to be seen. The situation was
no different at IGIA, Delhi, except for masks on and gloves on the CISF security and a stray
glove or two with cleaners and other ground personnel. The sheer magnitude of servicing a
locked down locality by such under-clothed and under-equipped personnel is enough to cause
hallucinations for any policy maker and implementer. So, how is locking down to be
enforced by such personnelI would be failing in my duty as a concerned citizen, if I did not
proffer some suggestions. First, disinfection of all public places, markets and densely
populated areas must start immediately. Second, since it is of prime importance to look after
the well-being of our critical front line service providers, proper coveralls must be provided
to each one of them. Third, we need to look at modifying private transport vehicles to install
large insecticide sprayers on them as also mechanical sprayers to municipal sanitation
personnel. Fourth, civic agencies must remove all accumulated garbage at least twice a day
from congested areas and wash these areas with disinfectant aside from dredging all drains
and cleaning sub-sewer lines. Fifth, political parties and organizations like RSS, RKM, BSS,
Arya Samaj, etc. should deploy their party/organisation members to educate their
constituencies and all other people on the need to maintain basic hygiene, safeguards, etc. and
to refrain from panicking. Political parties' door-to-door campaigners should be drafted for
this purpose without any further delay. After all, there are obligations too attached to
legislative seats, isn't it?
Sixth, large-scale mobile testing labs need to be deployed. If needed, Indian missions
overseas ought to be asked to make emergency spot purchases of ventilators and allied
medical equipment and testing kits, service robots and drones, disinfectants, protective
clothing for front line personnel and have them transported back to India by special charter
flights or Indian Air Force Globemasters. Seventh, issue directions to major private
manufacturers to divert 50% of their working capacity to domestically producing ventilators,
coveralls, sanitizers, masks, caps, gloves, disinfectants, basic pharma, etc. on crash basis.
Govt. of India would buy these supplies at a pre-determined rate with materials being
consigned to states directly from factories. If GM (US) can provide its auto-making facility to
a private US patent holding company, there is no reason for Maruti-Suzuki or Hyundai to
refuse cooperation. Likewise, a gin maker in Dublin and a distillery in Portland (Oregon) are
using their capacity and waste alcohol to producing hand sanitizers for free distribution. For
decades, India's private sector has fattened upon cheap loans and subsidies, defaulted on
,loans, indulged in large-scale money-laundering to feather their own nests. It is certainly
payback time for them now!

4. 4
Eighth, raise the availability of Internet bandwidth like Netflix, Amazon Prime and Google
that can be used to raise the reliability of the Net is areas proposed to be locked down. Ninth,
direct the private sector to temporarily close down all their non-essential services forthwith.
Last, let us not deny patients with ailments like pneumonia, H1N1 and other Covid-like
viruses the use of critical care equipment like testing kits and ventilators. Equally, let state
and Central govts. recall all doctors and para-medics that superannuated not more than five
years ago with an attractive consolidated emoluments package of Rs. 2-2.50 lakh and Rs.
75000/per month, respectively.
It is the easiest for ministers and their compliant civil servants to mouth imported concepts
like lock down; quite another to implement it. Besides, there are several steps before locking
down should be resorted to. Comparing ourselves to a vastly better-equipped China is
nothing short of travesty of truth. To start with, let us at least validate the magnitude of our
spread by extensive testing, instead of deriving misplaced comfort from low number of
positives detected so far. Let the good work of the Govt. of India and states not fall victim to
misplaced imported lockdowns without judging the huge pitfalls that are obvious.
Before closing, I may mention that I was posted in Meerut in 1988-91, at the height of
frequent communal riots under the Mulayam Singh Yadav government of the Samajwadi
Party. Curfew had the greatest supporter in the local police force that would randomly pick
people off the streets, including idle kids (schools were closed) playing cricket on the vacant
streets and keep them in the lock up. Then their families would come and negotiate 'terms'
with the SHO and they would be let off. My son, a toddler then, put me to testing times as I
scouted the local market for baby food and edibles, often our two-and- half strong family
having to live off potato curry (without scarce onions, ginger and garlic) and a cereal for days
together at usurious prices (curfew then lasted for 2-3 months). LPG cylinders carried
astronomical price tags and the black market spelled roaring business for local politicians,
civil servants and police forces. Given such unsavoury experience, lock down would be the
best news for law enforcers while hapless citizens would receive the raw end of the stick,
without much attendant gain on social distancing to break the CoVid-19 infection chain.
(1000 words). Concluded