This document discusses population growth and economic development in India. It provides background on global and Indian population trends, noting that India's population reached 1.21 billion in 2011 and is projected to surpass China's population by 2025. Rapid population growth has posed challenges for India's development by increasing demand for resources and impeding economic growth. However, India's large population has also helped power recent economic development by providing a huge workforce and consumer base. The document examines factors driving India's population growth like the declining death rate and persisting high birth rate. It also outlines some of the impacts of population growth on India's economy and development.

1. POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
IN INDIA
Prepared By
Sharatkumar Handa
UAS Dharwad
Seminar on

2. Flow of presentation
۩ Introduction
۩ World population scenario
۩ Size & growth of population in India
۩ Causes of rapid population growth
۩ Population growth and economic development
۩ Remedies for population explosion
۩ Population policy in India
۩ Conclusion

3. Introduction
Overpopulation is a growing problem throughout
the world.
World’s population has reached 7 billion.
There will, of course, be significant increases in the
demand for food, water, and energy in developing
countries.
Rapid population growth impedes development.

4. India and many third world countries are
now passing through the phase of population
explosion.
It is being argued that this situation has
arisen because development in these
countries has failed to maintain pace with
population growth.
Rapid growth of population causes poverty
and proves to be a barrier to development.
Contd..

5. Concepts & Definitions
Population:
The population of an area is the total number of all individuals alive in a
particular point in time. Thomas Frejka, (1973)
Population explosion:
The Theory of Demographic Transition, asserts that the population
explosion implying a sudden spurt in the rate of population growth is a
transitory phenomena that occurs in the second stage of demographic
transition due to rapid fall in mortality rate without a corresponding fall
in the birth rate.
Birth Rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a population each year.
Mortality rate is the total number of deaths per 1000 individuals per year.
Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be
born to a woman over her lifetime.

6. The Theory of Demographic Transition
Acc. to The Theory of Demographic Transition, every
country passes through 3 stages of demographic
transition.
Stages of demographic transition:
1st stage: Both birth rate and death rates are high. Hence
the population remains more or less stable.
2nd stage: Rapid growth of population because, despite
substantial reduction in the mortality rate there is no
corresponding decline in the birth rate.
3rd stage: The birth rate declines significantly and thus the
rate of population growth remains low.

7. Malthusian views
Population tends to increase at a geometric
rate
Food can only increase arithmetically
Population expands to eat up any surplus
Choose moral checks or positive checks

8. World population
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2011

9. World Population Growth
First Billion: 1804
Second Billion: 1927 (123 yrs)
Third Billion: 1960 (33 yrs)
Fourth Billion: 1974 (14 yrs)
Fifth Billion: 1987 (13 yrs)
Sixth Billion: 1999 (11 yrs)
Seventh Billion: 2011 (12 yrs)
Sources:World population milestones (USCB)

10. World Population Growth Rate
(Decadal growth- 2001 to 2011)
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011
S.No. Country Population (In millions) Decadal change
(in %)
1 China 1,341.0 5.43
2 India 1,210.2 17.64
3 U.S.A 308.7 7.26
4 Indonesia 237.6 15.05
5 Brazil 190.7 9.39
6 Pakistan 184.8 24.78
7 Bangladesh 164.4 16.76
8 Nigeria 158.3 26.84
9 Russian Fed. 140.4 -4.29
10 Japan 128.1 1.1
Other Countries 2844.7 15.43
World 6908.7 12.93

11. Population growth rate of selected countries
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011

12. Country wise share in world population
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, 2011

13. Population growth in
India
• India is the 2nd most populous country in the world, with over 1.21 billion people
(2011 census)
• India already containing 17.5% of the world's population and projected to be the
world's most populous country by 2025, surpassing China.
• Population growth rate is 1.5%, ranking 90th in the world.
(Qatar ranks 1st with a rate 4.93%)
• India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than
65% below the age of 35.
• It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years,
compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan.

14. Contd..
Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in the country
with almost 200 million people, which is more than
the population of Brazil.
The combined population of Uttar Pradesh and
Maharashtra (2nd most populous State), at 312 million,
is substantially greater than the population of USA.

15. Population & its growth in India: 1901-2011
Census
year
population Decadal growth Avg. annual
exp. growth
rate (%)
Progressive
growth rate
over 1901 (%)
absolute percent
1901 23,83,96,327 - - -
1911 25,20,93,390 1,36,97,063 5.75 0.56 5.75
1921 25,13,21,213 -7,72,177 (0.31) -0.03 5.42
1931 27,89,77,238 2,76,56,025 11.00 1.04 17.02
1941 31,86,60,580 3,96,83342 14.22 1.33 33.67
1951 36,10,88,090 4,24,27,510 13.31 1.25 51.47
1961 43,92,34,771 7,81,46,681 21.64 1.96 84.25
1971 54,81,59,652 10,89,24,881 24.80 2.20 129.94
1981 68,33,29,097 13,51,69,445 24.66 2.22 186.64
1991 84,64,21,039 16,30,91,942 23.87 2.16 255.05
2001 1,02,87,37,436 18,23,16,397 21.54 1.97 331.52
2011 1,21,01,93,422 18,14,55,986 17.64 1.64 407.64
Sources: Population Reference Bureau, Transition in world population, http:// www.prb.org/Publications/
Population Bulletins/2004/ sinWorldPopulationPDF249KB. aspx, pp 4

16. Percentage decadal population growth rate in India:
1951-1961 to 2001-2011
21.64
24.8 24.66
23.87
21.54
17.64
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1951-91 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-2011

17. Rural & urban population in India
Source: Census, GOI

18. Population share of state & UT, India 2011
Sources: Census, GOI,2011

19. Population of Indian States Compared to a Few
Countries in the World (in million)
State Population
Vs
Country Population
Uttar Pradesh 200 Brazil 194
Maharashtra 112 Japan 128
Bihar 104 Mexico 107
West Bengal 91 Philippines 92
Andhra Pradesh 85 Germany 82
Madhya
Pradesh
73 Turkey 75
Tamil Nadu 72 Iran 73
Rajasthan 69 Thailand 68
Karnataka 61 UK 62
Gujarat 60 Italy 60
Sources: Census GOI/World Bank

20. Density of Population
‘Density of Population’ is defined as the
number of persons per square kilometer.
With a population density of 382/km2, India
ranks 31st among the most densely
populated countries in the world.
(Singapore ranks 1st -7301/km2)
Even though India accounts for only 2.4% of surface area of the
earth, it contributes 17.5% to the world population, which
is extremely large. Where as USA, accounting for 7.2% of
the earth’s surface area, contributes only 4.5% to the world
population.

21. Top Ten Most Densely Populated States of
India
S.No. States
Population Density
(per square km)
1 Bihar 1,102
2 West Bengal 1,029
3 Kerala 859
4 Uttar Pradesh 689
5 Haryana 573
6 Tamil Nadu 555
7 Punjab 550
8 Jharkhand 442
9 Assam 397
10 Goa 394
Arunachal Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands have the
lowest population densities among the Indian states and
union territories respectively.
Source: Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov

22. Population Density of India in a
chronological order
Year Density of population per sq km
1901 77
1911 82
1921 81
1931 90
1941 103
1951 117
1961 142
1971 177
1981 216
1991 274
2001 324
2011 382
Source: Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov

23. Sex wise composition
of population in India
Sex ratio: No. of females per thousand males.
All time lowest sex ratio was 927 in 1991.
The sex ratio of India has shown improvement
during last two decades.
Sex ratio, as per the recent census is 940 which is
largely comparable to the best performance
(941 in 1961) in last fifty years.

24. Sources: Census of India, GOI,1901 to 2011.

25. Census in India
• A population Census is the process of collecting, compiling,
analyzing and disseminating demographic, social, cultural and
economic data relating to all persons in the country, at a particular
time in ten years interval.
• It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular
population.
• The 1871 India Census was the first comprehensive census of India,
then a component of the British Empire.

26. Causes of rapid population Growth
1. High birth rate
2. Relatively lower death rate and
3. Migration
Net Migration is the difference between emigration &
immigration
Emigration is when a person moves out of the country.
Immigration is when a person moves into a country.

27. Interaction
In India the population has rapidly
increased mainly due to decline in the
death rate, while the birth rate
remained high.
Population growth =
(Birth rate+ Immigration) - (Mortality + Emigration)

28. Reasons for High Birth Rate
1. Predominance of agriculture
In agrarian society children never been
considered as economic burden.
2. Slow urbanization process &
predominance of villages
3. Poverty
People are not poor because they have large
families. Quite the contrary, they have
large families because they are poor.
-(Mahmood Mandani)
A. Economic factors B. Social factors
A. Economic factors

29. 1. Near universality of marriage
Presently in India by the age of 50, only 5 out
of 1000 Indian women remain
unmarried.
2. Lower age at the time of
marriage
3. Religious & social superstitions
Belief that it is a must to have a son, because
according to religion certain rites can be
performed only by him & none else.
4. Joint family system
The joint family system induces the young
couple to have children, though they may
not be in a position to support them.
B. Social factors

30. 5. Lack of education
6. Unawareness about family
planning services
7. Social and religious beliefs -
especially in relation to
contraception and abortion
8. Infant Mortality Rate
Contd..

31. Reasons for decline in the mortality rate
a. Elimination of famines
b. Control of epidemics &
decline in the incidence of
Malaria & Tuberculosis
Cholera and small fox were the two
major causes of epidemics before
independence. Now cholera is
completely eradicated and small
fox is very much under control.
c. Supply of pure drinking
water
d. Sanitation & hygiene

32. Contd..
e. Nutrition levels
f. Living standard
g. Education, health
care & expanded
medical facilities
h. Social factors such
as conflicts and
levels of violent
crimes

33. Birth rate & Death rate in India
Year
Birth rate
(births/1,000 population)
Death rate
(deaths/1,000 population)
1941-51 39.9 27.4
1951-61 41.7 22.8
1961-71 41.1 19
1971-81 37.2 15
1981-91 29.5 9.8
1991-01 25.8 8.5
2001-11 22.5 7.7
Source: Calculated from the Census of India data and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare,
Government of India

34. Birth rate & Death rate in India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1941-51 1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-11
rateofgrowth
years
Birth rate (births/1,000 population) Death rate (deaths/1,000 population)

35. Why there are so many children in poor
countries ??
Because children are “investment
goods” rather than “consumption
goods”
The “expected return of the investment” is given
by child labour and financial support for
parents in old age

36. International
 Migration from low to middle & high
income countries
 Employment based migration
Intra-national
 Rural to Urban
 Semi-Urban to Urban
Why migrate?
 Lure of big city
 Job opportunities (pull factor)
 Lack of rural opportunities
(push factor)
Migration: geographical distribution

37. International migration, 2010 (Top 10)
Highest percentage of
international migrants
Largest number of international
migrants, (millions)
Qatar 87% USA 42.8
UAE 70% Russia 12.3
Kuwait 69% Germany 10.8
Jordan 465 Saudi Arabia 7.3
Palestine 44% Canada 7.2
Singapore 41% France 6.7
Israel 40% UK 6.5
Hong Kong 39% Spain 6.4
Saudi Arabia 38% India 5.4
Oman 38% Ukraine 5.3
Source: Population Growth & Its impacts, PAD 6838/ 7865 Lecture 3

38. Population pyramid of developing &
developed countries

39. Youth Bulge
 Population pyramid depicts the current distribution of people across age
groups.
 A large number of youth constitute India’s population; about 36 percent of
the population is under age 15.
 This young age structure creates a powerful momentum for future
population growth.
 Many females will soon enter their reproductive years and have children
within the next decade. Even if fertility declines rapidly, it will take 50 years
for the population to stabilize.

40. India’s Youth Bulge
Projections arrived using Spectrum with inputs from Census 2001, and NFHS

41. Population growth & Economic
development in india
India’s population is large and
growing.
The rapidly growing population
affect India’s impressive economic
growth and commitment to
improving the living standards of
its citizens.
The economic growth primarily due
to a huge increase in the size of
the middle class consumer
population, a large workforce
comprising skilled workers, good
education standards and
considerable foreign investments.

42. Indian economy
Today, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the
world.
The economy of India is the 10th largest in the world
by nominal GDP and the 3rd largest by purchasing power
parity (PPP) With 4,793 billion USD.
According to the IMF, India is the 19th-largest exporter and
10th-largest importer in the world.
The economy is growing around 5.0% growth rate.
India’s low-cost, skilled labour force has been an important
driver in its economic growth.

43. Growth of population, GDP and food grain
production, India: 1950-51 to 2010-11.
YEAR POPULATION
(millions)
GDP at facto cost
(at constant price
in Rs. Crore)
Output of
foodgrains
(million tons)
1950-51 361 2,24,786 50.8
1960-61 439 3,29,825 82.0
1970-71 548 4,74,131 108.4
1980-81 683 6,41,921 129.6
1990-91 846 10,83,572 176.4
2000-01 1,028.7 18,64,300 196.8
2010-11 1,210.2 44,93,743 218.2
Sources: GDP & output of foodgrains from Economic Survey,2010-11. GDP (quick
estimates) & foodgrain production (4th advance estimate) correspond to 2009-10.

44. Population growth, GDP and food
gain production in India
Source: analysis based on census 1950-51 to 2001-2011

46. Labour force and economy
“India’s large population is an important asset,
and the key to the economic future of our
nation". - Jawaharlal Nehru
A. J. Coale and E. M. Hoover (1958)
Indicated that the rate of economic growth in a developing country is
primarily determined by two factors:
1. The growth in labour force; and
2. The amount of capital available per labourer.
Coale and Hoover model

47. • Today, 36% of India’s one billion populations are below
the age of 15 years.
• This means that by 2020, 325 million people in India will
reach the working age. India will have the largest working
population in the world.
• This expected rise in India’s working population comes at
a time when the developed world is faced with large,
ageing populations.
Population and labour forces
•US will be short of 17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan 9
million and Russia 6 million.
•Against this, India will have a surplus of 47 million working age people.
•India equipped with the advantage of a large, vibrant work-force, will grow at more
than 5% a year until 2050.

48. year unemployment rate (%)
2002 8.8
2003 9.5
2004 9.2
2005 8.9
2006 7.8
2007 7.2
2008 6.8
2009 10.7
2010 10.8
2011 9.8
With limited progress in human development, India’s large
population can become a liability rather than an advantage.
Unemployment rate: This entry contains the percent of the labor force that
is without jobs.
Population and unemployment trends in India
Source:www.wikipedia.com

49. poverty
Despite of booming economy and a $ 9billion jobs program, India ranks poorly
in poverty indicators.
Sources: Indian Government, World Bank (poorest nations)
Countries with the largest percentage of people living on $ 1.25 or less /day (2011)

50. Capital formation
Adversely affected the capital formation.
More resources are used for meeting the fast
increasing population needs & this leaves less
resources for increasing productive capacity of the
economy.

51. • Today, high population densities
have led to overloaded
infrastructure in urban areas.
• 27% of India’s urban population
today lives without sanitation; 24%
lives without access to tap water.
• The population of India’s major
cities is expected to increase by an
average of 25% by 2020.
Over-strained infrastructure
India’s population will be 72% urbanized by 2030. It is estimated that India will
require construction of 3.6 million housing units in urban areas every year, to
address additional population requirements.

52. Contd..
The annual growth in
India’s population
alone is estimated
to require the
opening of 66,000
new primary schools
and 3,000 new
health centers every
year.

53. Effects on agriculture land
The total area of the country is fixed &
where agriculture is predominant.
Population increases at a faster rate,
larger and larger area of land is needed
for dwelling units, roads, factories, etc.
An estimated half of India’s 329 million hectares of soil is degraded.
India will lose all its productive land to desertification within 200
years, if the present annual loss of land continues.
Small size of land holdings results in wastage of land & capital and
productivity is adversely affected.

54. Effect on water and grass lands
The water table in India
is falling by an
average of 6 feet
every year. It is
predicted that India
will cross into water
scarcity by 2025.
The population impact on India’s resources has been severe.
According to the World Bank, resource degradation costs the Indian
economy 4.5% of GDP annually.
Common property such as grasslands has declined by 25%, through
encroachments and over-cultivation.

55. Effects on forests
Forests contribute in a big way to
economic growth of the
country.
Fast increase in population in
India resulted in deforestation
for ever increasing demand of
agricultural land, fuel, wood
dwellings, etc.

56. Effects on mineral resources
Mineral resources are
limited.
Faster growth of population
& its size in India resulted
in greater exploitation of
these resources.
This will obviously affects
adversely the future
economic growth in
developing countries.

57. Food Security
• To provide for the food
requirements of the
additional population, India
will have to consistently
increase food production
by 3% every year.
The number of people who require a food subsidy would double
in 50 years; and
Greater pressure would be placed on the government to provide
food subsidies.

58. How to reduce rapid population growth?
1. Expansion of industrial sector:
Industrial workers are aware of difficulties in
getting the employment & are interested in
restricting the size of their family.
2. Creation of employment opportunities
in urban areas:
The housing problem and the cost of upbringing
of children in urban areas are the two factors
which usually deter people from having big
families

59. 4. Increase education, employment and
wages for women
Education often changes the
attitude of a person towards
family, marriage and the
number of children he/she
should have.
3. Equitable distribution of income and removal of
poverty
Poor people have virtually no interest in limiting the size of the family.

60. 6. Provide better old-age
social security
To reduce the dependency on
the children
7. Raising the minimum age
of marriage
India should try to draw some
lesson from the experiences of
China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka
where fertility decline has
occurred largely through an
increase in age at marriage.
5. Increase the minimum-age
child labor

61. 8. Improve child health to reduce
infant mortality
9. Implementation of family-
planning programs
10. Monetary subsidies to small
families

62. Population Policy in
India
• It is difficult to decide as what is optimum size of population for India under the
existing conditions.
• There has been complete reliance on family planning in order to reduce
population explosion.
• The national family planning program was launched in 1951, and was the world's
first governmental population stabilization program.
• Low female literacy levels and the lack of widespread availability of birth-control
methods is hampering the use of contraception in India.
• Family planning accepted & practiced effectively in some of the states in India.
• Education and awareness needed about Family Planning.

63. Population and Development:
China & India
Two of the world’s fastest growing economies.
China and India, also happen to be the world’s two most
populous nations.
In India, it is common to hear the view that,
Everything is growing faster in China than India, except
population.
India, which had well under 2/3rd of China’s population
half a century ago, is projected to surpass China’s
population by 200 million people by 2050.

64. CONCLUSION
☼ India is still attaining its high rates of economic growth despite
the rise in population.
☼ Yet, there are rising problem in India concerning poverty,
unemployment, significant increases in the demand for
food, water and energy.
☼ So, it became necessary to control population growth.
☼ Education, awareness and improvement in women’s &
children’s health will brings down fertility rates and
population growth.

65. "In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity.“
--Albert Einstein
Sharat.handa@gmail.com