The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

The Role of Agriculture in Hunger
and Poverty Reduction
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
DFID, London, September 27, 2010

IFPRI, September 2010
Key messages
 Global food security is under stress
 Agricultural growth is crucial for reducing
hunger and poverty
 Agricultural research is key
 The CGIAR and IFPRI are well-positioned to
effectively address global challenges

The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calculations
Number of hungry people, 1990-2015
946
584

Pressures on food security and agriculture
 Population growth and demographic changes
 Competition for land and water
 Climate change
 Energy and biofuels
 Food price volatility, etc.

Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Source: M. Rosegrant 2009
NCAR A2a
E.g. Climate change pressure on agriculture
Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050
Global production = -16%

Agriculture creates wealth and reduces
poverty and hunger by:
 Raising farm incomes, esp. for smallholders
 Creating farm employment
 Stimulating the rural nonfarm economy through
production and consumption linkages
 Pushing down the prices of staple foods to the
benefit of poor net food buyers
Source: OECD 2006

Agric-led growth is more pro-poor than
non-agric-led growth
Agric-led growth
scenario
Non-agric-led
growth scenario
Ethiopia (2003-15) -1.7 -0.7
Ghana (2003-15) -1.8 -1.3
Kenya (2003-15) -1.3 -0.6
Rwanda (2003-15) -1.4 -0.8
Uganda (1999-2015) -1.6 -1.1
Zambia (2001-15) -0.6 -0.4
Source: Diao et al. 2010
Poverty-growth elasticities

The composition of agric. growth is
important
Calorie-growth
elasticity
Poverty-growth
elasticity
Maize -1.9 -1.5
Sorghum & millet -1.5 -1.5
Pulses & oilseeds -1.8 -1.4
Roots -1.1 -1.5
Horticulture -1.0 -1.4
Livestock -0.7 -1.3
Export crops -0.8 -1.4
Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010
Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07)

Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand
Returns to agriculture or rural income
(local currency/local currency spending)
Agric. R&D 16.8 12.4 12.5 0.14 6.8 13.5 12.6
Education -0.2 7.2 9.0 0.56 2.2 1.4 2.1
Health 1.3 0.9 n.e. -0.03 n.e. 0.8 n.e.
Roads 8.8 2.7 9.1 4.22 1.7 5.3 0.9
Ranking in returns to poverty reduction
Agric. R&D n.e. 1 2 n.e. 2 2 1
Education n.e. 3 1 n.e. 1 3 3
Health n.e. 4 n.e. n.e. n.e. 4 n.e.
Roads n.e. 2 3 n.e. 3 1 2
Investment in agric. R&D has high returns
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009
Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated

Big food security successes are driven by
agric. innovation
 Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)
 China: High-yielding hybrid rice varieties (1977-now)
 East and Southern Africa: Breeding improved maize
varieties (1965 to 1990)
 India: Dryland millet and sorghum varieties (mid-1960s-now)
 Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant
cassava (1971-89)
 Philippines: Breeding improved tilapia (1988 to 1997)
Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009

Research-based innovations can:
 Sustainably increase yields
 Enhance the nutritional value of food crops
 Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks
Source: FBAE 2009
Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS

Why CGIAR reform?
 With rapid global changes, past CGIAR successes
are not enough to meet future challenges
 CGIAR’s new mission goes beyond productivity and
technology to include hunger/nutrition, poverty,
gender, and natural resource management
 Increased quantity and quality of investment in the
CGIAR is needed
Reform will help harmonize and maximize funding for
priority research areas, simplify structures, and
reduce transaction costs

The CGIAR is well positioned to
contribute to:
 Global efforts to foster food production and
food access
 Sustainable management of natural
resources and the environment
 Reduced poverty and hunger in both rural
and urban areas

New CGIAR structure
3 pillars:
• CGIAR Fund
• Consortium
• Centers
4 bridging mechanisms:
• Strategy and Results Framework
• Performance Agreements for Consortium
research programs
• Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
• Independent Science and Partnership Council

Consortium research programs (CRPs)
1. Integrated agricultural systems for the poor
2. Policies, institutions, and markets for the poor
3. Sustainable production systems for food security
4. Agriculture for improved nutrition and health
5. Durable solutions to water scarcity and land and
ecosystem degradation
6. Forests and trees
7. Climate change and agriculture

Increasing agricultural R&D:
Allocation for poverty minimization
R&D allocation
(mil. 2005 $)
 in # of poor
(mil.)
2008-20202008 2020
SSA 772 3,565 -170.0
S Asia 908 3,856 -177.2
E & SE Asia 1,956 3,266 -65.1
N Africa & W Asia 546 722 -1.3
L America 957 1,038 -0.8
TOTAL 5,139 12,446 -414
Source: Nin Pratt and Fan 2009

Role of IFPRI’s research
 Policy solutions for food security, agriculture, rural
development, and improved resource allocation
 Improved policy environment for technological
developments of other CGIAR centers
 IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and
Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural
Incomes for the Poor
 IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for
Improved Health and Nutrition

The conference will:
 bring together information on how to strengthen
linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health
 identify “best practices” in policies and programs
 further knowledge and build consensus on
priorities for appropriate action
 facilitate networks amongst stakeholders
18

Improving Policymaking Capacity in
Agriculture and Food Security at the
Country Level
Margaret McMillan
Division Director
Development Strategy and Governance Division

Country
Strategy
Support
Programs
(CSSPs)
•Research
•Capacity Building
•Impact Evaluation

CSSP Framework
Country
Strategy
Support
Program
•Program Leader
(Sr. Research Fellow)
•Postdoctoral Fellows
•RAs
•Local support
•DC-based support
Ministries
•Timely, policy
relevant research
results
•Improved access
to information and
data
•Policy dialogue
Local think
tanks, national
research
institutes
•Capacity building
• Collaboration
•Sharing lessons
across countries
Universities
•Collaboration
•Sharing lessons
across countries
Civil
society
•Farmers
•Local
Businesses
•NGOs

Offices, CSSPs, and future CSSPs
around the world
CSSPs
Upcoming CSSPs
IFPRI offices
Islamabad
Dhaka
Kinshasa
Kathmandu
Phnom Penh
Potential CSSPs
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires

Innovative policy-relevant research

Capacity building

Cross-regional mutual learning

CAADP and Its Role in Promoting
Agricultural Development in Africa
Ousmane Badiane
Director for Africa

 Carry out comprehensive stocktaking
 Develop strategy and outcome scenario
 Create detailed baselines
 Develop guidelines for best practices
 Create knowledge platform
 Build capacities for replicability
Laying the foundations for evidence-based
planning, review and learning

57.6
63.4
37.2
40.7
34.9
38.5
42.4
46.6
30.9
34.0
National Rural
Current PSTA II Vision- 2020 PSTA I/CAADP MDG1-2015
Poverty outcomes under investment plans:
Rwanda

0
5
10
15
20
25
UNDER PLANS growth MDG15 growth MDG20 growth
Growth outcomes under investment plans:
Rwanda

Building analytical capacities

The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction

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