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Five Mega-Trends in Agriculture - Tools, Technology 2017
- 1. Tools & Technology: Five Big Ag Trends John Shutske, Professor & Extension Specialist, Biological Systems Engineering – College of Ag & Life Sciences
- 2. Technology – Including Phones, Computers, Vehicle Components • Exponential growth and capability
- 4. Technology – Including Phones, Computers, Vehicle Components • Exponential growth and capability • Moore’s Law – computing power doubles every 12-18 months • More computing power in your pocket than in ALL of NASA in 1969 • At 1961 cost, the graphic processor in our IPhone would cost $637 trillion
- 5. Something Doubles ever year… • Give me a buck ($1) in 1960…What’s it worth in 1961? • 1965? $32 • 1969? $512 (Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, and the Archies had the #1 song) • 1979? $524,288 • 1993? $8.6 billion • 2017? $144,115,188,075,856,000 (144 quadrillion) • That’s a lot of dough!!
- 6. 5 Mega-Trends Impacting WI Agriculture • Big (and not so big) Data • Artificial Intelligence • Autonomous Vehicles • Sharing and Collaborative Economy Business Models • Changes in Future Workforce & Leadership
- 7. Big Data (and just a huge amount of data more generally) • Generation of data is like a growing tsunami • Driven by new data collection devices
- 9. Sensors, Internet of Things • This tsunami facilitated by cheap data storage • Wisconsin MUST figure out reliable, affordable broadband & mobile (or, we will be eating dust) • Questions about data security, ownership, impact on asset values
- 12. Alexa (Echo)
- 14. Artificial Intelligence • A few early ag applications • Healthcare, bio- applications • Watson (the same one that won Jeopardy) – Reads 700,000 cancer treatment journal articles from 1-year & suggests treatments in previously untreatable cases • Can this work in Agriculture? • WARNING
- 15. Autonomous Vehicles: Cars, Trucks, Tractors, Robotic, UAV’s
- 16. Autonomous Vehicles • Google, Tesla, international companies • Safety current concern, but will ultimately be the main selling point • Will include trucks • Biggest delay NOT the tech – it’s regulation and insurers • Farm applications will come fast
- 20. Changes in Agriculture’s Future Workforce & Leaders
- 21. Percentage Enrollment – Women in CALS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
- 23. The Role of Women • USDA – Principal operators, $12.9B annual ag sales • Women MUST play role in “Feeding Nine Billion” – they make up 43% of ag labor in developing countries • When women have equal access, productivity can be 30% greater • Fortune 500: Boards with more women generate 42% greater return on sales & 53% higher return on equity
- 24. So What? • We need to learn from each other and embrace these changes • Agriculture is INCREASINGLY a people and relationship business • We need to create opportunities for leadership, professional development, input, ideas for ALL people in our workplaces • Guys --- Use your influence to INTRODUCE young people; role model respect; embrace new ideas and ways of approaching problems!
- 25. Summary Thoughts • We’ve never seen rates of change like we see today • It’s exciting if we embrace it • It’s super scary if we let it just “happen” to us • Read • Listen • Learn • Best wishes and stay safe in 2017!
- 26. Photo Credit: Moon Light PhotoStudio @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credit: agsandrew @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) http://www.futuristgerd.com/ Photo Credit: agsandrew @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credit: irin-k @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credit: Rawpixel.com @Shutterstock (under paid license) Photo from: www.theAgDataConference.com Photo Credit: a-image @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credit: boris15 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Flickr: iphonedigital Photo from Amazon.com Photo from: http://www.thegeekocracy.com/cool-iphone-interface-marvels-iron-man-3-jarvis-ios-app/ Photo Credit: boris15 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Personal (tractor at FPS) Photo Credit: posteriori @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Graphic from Vladimir Mirkovic – www.transartdesign.com Photo from: https://www.bloomberg.com/ Photo from: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a4354/4320759/ Photo Credit: Shutterstock (under paid license) Photo Credit: Left – Alliance @Shutterstock.com Right – Buppha @Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credit: Nolanberg11 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license) Photo Credits – Also indicated in speaker notes section of PowerPoint
Notes de l'éditeur
- Good afternoon. I’m John Shutske. I’m an Extension Specialist and Professor in Biological Systems Engineering – I’m still old school – I still call us Ag Engineering. I want to talk to you about five big things happening in agriculture today that will change the landscape we work in…Forever. There is no going back. We have an opportunity to embrace these changes, or to be left behind. FOUR of these five are driven by technology change. The fifth one is a demographic shift that started in our ag workforce a decade or more ago. Photo Credit: Moon Light PhotoStudio @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Technology change is coming at us hard and fast – and it’s accelerating – in some industries things are ramping up more quickly than in others. All are happening as a result of exponential growth and expansion of computing capability–while--at the same time, costs to do business using technology is decreasing… Photo Credit: agsandrew @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- So…What is exponential growth? I want to compare exponential growth to things that grow in a linear way – In a straight line…If I am a beginning farmer, starting out with 80 acres like my Dad did back in 1972, and I want to grow modestly. I want to double the first year to 160 then continue to add 80 or 100 acres each year – say for 10 years, I’ll have 800 or maybe 1000 acres after ten years. That’s linear growth… But, if I start in 1972 and want to double that 80. Double it the first year, then EVERY YEAR after, my growth curve looks different. Instead of 800 acres in 10 years I’ll be farming 40,960 acres. That’s the power of exponential growth. Compound interest on money is another example – It grows exponentially -- but it usually grows by single digit percentages. http://www.futuristgerd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/linear-vs-exponential-exponent-org.png http://www.futuristgerd.com/
- Back in the mid 60s, there was a dude named Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel. Moore made an important observation that eventually came to be known as Moore’s law – Moore’s law says computing capabilities would grow and grow. They will double every 12 to 18 months in speed and capability at lower and lower cost. That’s something close to a 100% compounded growth rate. Over 50 years, Moore’s law has held amazingly true. What does this mean? It means that the Iphone in my jacket pocket far and away exceeds ALL the computing power NASA had its disposal when it first sent Neil Armstrong to the moon in 1969. Another way to look at it – If you take the cost of an early 1960s computer and MULTIPLY that same cost to achieve the same capacity your Iphone has today, such a computer back in 1961 would have cost over $600 trillion. The world’s current GDP is about $78 trillion. Photo Credit: agsandrew @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Look at this another way quickly – I was born in 1960. 56 years ago. If my mom handed me a dollar when I popped out….. And I doubled my dollar each year, it would be worth $32 in 1965. In 1969 when we landed on the moon – it would be worth $512. When I graduated from high school in 79, it would be worth a little more than half a million. By the time my first kid was born – 1993, it would have grown to over $8.6 billion. And today, 24 years later, would be worth $144 quadrillion. That’s a lot of dough. That’s Moore’s law. Bottom line, today in 2017 WE HAVE A LOT OF COMPUTER CAPABILITY to harness and leverage to our advantage!!
- Here are the FIVE trends – Big Data, or maybe stated a little differently, just basically a boatload of data. Artificial intelligence. Autonomous vehicles – cars, trucks, tractors, drones, and other fully automated, mobile machines and robots. The sharing and collaborative economy. And, finally, a trend NOT directly connected to technology -- major changes in our ag and food system workforce. Photo Credit: irin-k @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Let’s talk about Big Data – Or, more accurately, just a massive, massive amount of data at our disposal. A virtual tsunami, again with the mass of information growing exponentially. [Include some facts here]. There is a growing science and business discipline developing around big data, data science and data mining. Much of this is happening in the business world as well as healthcare. SOME in agriculture. And, some of the mega-mergers and acquisitions by multi-national companies is focused on their desire to develop banks and storehouses of data which someday will have the value of precious metals or other physical assets. This tsunami of data is also driven by new data collection devices -- Photo Credit: Rawpixel.com @Shutterstock (under paid license)
- Like drones – You’ll notice I did not include drones in my five mega trends. Why? They are pretty sweet, right? It’s because a UAV right now is largely a platform for collecting data and information. Photo from: www.theAgDataConference.com
- Also driving this is the development of cheap and reliable sensor systems – Often referred to as the Internet of things. A tractor that’s connected to the internet. An airfilter on that tractor with an IP address that can send an email or text message to the John Deere dealer to order a new one without the operator needing to worry about it. Devices in alfalfa, corn, and soybean fields that measure sunlight, heat units, evapotransiration, and pest pressure and send everything from Twitter tweets to direct orders to crop scouts and sprayer units. This data tsunami is also being kicked into action by embarrassingly cheap data storage devices that also have followed Moore’s law. You young ones in the audience – sometime look up what a 10 megabyte hard disk cost on an original IBM personal computer back in the early 80s. Compare that to the fact that I can buy a 128 gig jump drive right now at Best Buy for like 10 bucks…. I have a couple of editorial comments --- 1) Wisconsin MUST find faster and more affordable and reliable solutions to broadband, high speed internet and mobile coverage to deal with this data. I’ve served as an advisor to UW-Extension Broadband and E-Commerce Center, and I can say we’ve fallen woefully behind other states. Check out Iowa. In 2015, Governor Branstad signed legislation to COVER EVERY ACRE with robust, reliable internet coverage. One other comment – I believe in the next decade as we continue to see large transfers of farm assets, there will be many questions about how we secure that data coming from our fields, herds, and operations – Who owns it? And, what impact does it have on the value of land and other assets that have a dataset associated with them? Photo Credit: a-image @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Trend #2 is Artificial Intelligence. We don’t have time for technical definitions. But think about these examples in increasing level of sophistication and power…. Photo Credit: boris15 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- SIRI – SIRI really does drive me crazy, and I’ve seen some hilarious SIRI fails. If we had described SIRI and what it can do today 15 years ago, people would have thought you were crazy. But, it is by far the most commonly used application of AI, along with Google. Flickr: iphonedigital
- Alexa or the ECHO system from Amazon – The Echo is a major step up with many more capabilities that grow every day. It’s something to watch in 2017. Photo from Amazon.com
- And, how about JARVIS – Just A Rather Very Intelligent System – from the movie Iron Man. JARVIS can operate, make decisions, take care of, and control just about anything for Tony Stark. (Robert Downey Junior). JARVIS can anticipate problems. He can collect information needed for critical decisions. He calculates probabilities and either advises Tony Stark or just automatically takes needed action. Photo from: http://www.thegeekocracy.com/cool-iphone-interface-marvels-iron-man-3-jarvis-ios-app/
- You can imagine some of the early agricultural applications. Pest management. Scheduling field and irrigation operations. Optimizing animal health or crop health treatments and regimes. It’ll be a few years. But meanwhile, we are already NOW seeing many applications in healthcare. Take for example WATSON – the IBM computer system that enables new partnerships between people and computers. This is the same Watson that competed on Jeopardy 6 years ago (2011) and won $1 million. But, remember that was six years ago. And, think about the impact of Moore’s law! Here’s one example – In the medical sector, IBM is partnering with several hospitals and research centers that specialize in cancer… Right now, medical researchers publish more than 700,000 cancer treatment articles every year in science journals. That number is growing. The average oncology or cancer specialist in these clinics, university centers and hospitals might read 180 or 200 articles a year. There is NO WAY for one person to read, assimilate, and put all this new information to use…. BUT, Watson can read, process, sort, and develop initial patterns and relationships in those 700,000 articles in 15 minutes. Give Watson a day, and a unit that’s the size of five pizza boxes has in it more knowledge and wisdom on cancer treatment than ever existed on this plant before. Again, on cancer, several examples are now emerging of artificial intelligence suggesting treatment protocols, combinations of medication, precision surgery, pinpointed radiation and other cellular and molecular cancer treatments with great success. It will and IS beginning to revolutionize health care. Can this work in agriculture? ABSOLUTELY! But, let me throw out a MAJOR, MAJOR WARNING. I hope that it’s not too late – At places like UW-Madison and CALS (as well as our peer institutions like Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa), we’ve lost a LOT. In many fields, we’ve crippled our capacity for doing original, unbiased, peer-reviewed research and the APPLIED Extension specialists who do the research to establish heuristics, rules of thumb, and data-oriented relationships that a computer like Watson can work from. We risk further erosion. Yes, it IS a result of budget cuts and NOT making investments in agricultural, healthcare, engineering, and other research. We will and we are falling behind. As a former administrator it’s been tough and frightening to watch, because I see other nations investing and learning from our successes AND our mistakes. Just like with broadband, they will eat our lunch if we don’t wake up on this issue. Photo Credit: boris15 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Trend #3 -- Autonomous Vehicles: Cars, Trucks, Tractors, Robots, UAV’s – That probably says a lot of what I want to say. This concept tractor from CASE IH was a big highlight for many of the 100,000 who visited the 2016 Farm Progress Show in Boone Iowa this summer. Photo Credit: John Shutske, taken at 2016 Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa
- We will continue to see a huge amount of development and marketing work with consumer vehicles. All of the major car manufacturers are running large-scale highway trials as we speak. Publicity-wise, Google and Tesla have led the way, but in 2017 and 2018, we will also hear a lot from Ford, GM, and others. Right now, everyone is freaked out about safety. But, I can assure that at some point – probably 2020 or so, things will shift and safety will become the MAIN selling point and reason to move ahead. The biggest delay will NOT be the capabilities of the technology – it will be governmental regulation and proving the benefits to insurance companies. Once the actuaries at the insurance companies can prove the benefits, it will be a tipping point. Farm applications will also come fast. In agriculture, the big driver will be labor costs and availability. Photo Credit: posteriori @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- Trend #4 is the rapid emergence of the Sharing or Collaborative Economy – In agriculture, we already have done some of this over the last 100 years. Ag has long been a leader in the Cooperative business model. We are seeing major adoption of collaborative business models in other business sectors --- If you travel, you may have used AirBNB or Uber or Vacation Rentals by owner. If I own a $350,000 house in Madison with a nice spare bedroom that only gets used twice a year when my mother in law comes to visit, why not rent it out on weekends when people come to town for Badger football games and make $350 a night? Graphic from Vladimir Mirkovic – www.transartdesign.com CC Commons License (used with attribution)
- With Ag machinery, how will we justify purchase of a $500,000 combine in the future that only gets used 5 or 6% of the time in a given year? Or a $750,000 driverless tractor? All of this is enabled by software platforms to enable and facilitate transactions and they maintain data connected to TRUST and the quality of relationships. If I rent a room from AirBNB and it’s a dump, that provider will get booted from the platform. If I am selling a product on eBay or looking for startup dollars on Kickstarter, and am selling a crappy product, I’ll be out of business. We will see the same types of sharing and collaborative business opportunities with portable or otherwise flexible ag assets. Photo from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/the-sharing-economy-comes-to-the-farm
- The collaborative economy is also connected to a new type of manufacturing made possible through 3D printing – A 3D printer lets you print components – with any material – multiple types of plastics, titanium, and stainless steel. This is Jay Leno who uses his own 3D printer to print impossible to get parts for his old car collection. Imagine the same type of technology scaled up --- maybe at a scale 5 or 10 times larger able to print and manufacture tractor parts and combine components. As well as car and truck parts, factory machine components, and other critical, time sensitive components – I can envision large, regional parts depots that are able to 3-D print ANYTHING you need – on demand, regardless of industry, and in hours rather than days or weeks. Why wait two weeks for a replacement valve for my dairy bulk tank? Four or five clicks on my smart phone, the depot downloads the part specs from DeLaval and prints it for me that afternoon. A drone delivers it that night to my doorstep. The technology is there. Photo from: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a4354/4320759/
- Here is the last of my trends – This one is NOT connected to technology. Major changes and shifts in our ag workforce. Photo Credit: Shutterstock (under paid license)
- One trend is the growing influence of women --- you can see this from our enrollment in CALS over the last 10 to 15 years…. We’ve been well over 50% women, approaching 60% since around 2000 – for about a decade and a half. When I was an undergraduate student at Purdue in the Agricultural Engineering program, we had one woman out of 48 students in my graduating class. I saw this in my eight years as a CALS and UW-Extension Adminstrator... Consistently, we were hiring 60% (or more) women. They were the best qualified and the best in our pools of people who applied for positions. DATA from UW Madison, College of Agricultural and Life Sciences
- Let’s talk about this trend just a bit more -- and specifically the role of women and new ways of thinking about the world of agriculture… Photo Credit: Left – Alliance @Shutterstock.com Right – Buppha @Shutterstock.com (under paid license)
- USDA’s 2012 Census of Agriculture shows us that women as PRINCIPAL FARM operators make up a larger and larger fraction of the industry. They account for almost $13B in annual sales of ag products that year. So – they will grow in importance as YOUR customers for those of you in the ag service sector. Next, we’ve all heard about the need to feed 9 billion people on the planet by 2045 or 2050. A huge fraction of that growth will be in areas that currently face hunger and food instability. BUT they are also places that now underperform in terms of food production potential. University and government experts see this need clearly! One big priority is to recognize and support the role women play. Several studies point to the fact that while women are doing nearly half of the agricultural work globally, yet, in many areas they lack equal access to capital, machines, and other technologies --- Yet, if you provide a man and a woman with equal access to resources in a developing country in Africa, or Central America, or parts of Asia – women will generate up to 30% more production with the same resources, meaning a 30% greater return on investment. Several business studies here in the US point to this same phenomenon! Fortune 500 companies in the upper 25%, or upper quartile of participation by WOMEN on corporate Boards of Directors generate 42% greater return on sales and 53% greater return on equity…
- On trend 5 – I want to try and nail the answer the SO WHAT on this trend. So this is happening… I’m a guy – like more than half of you. What do I do? First, we need to learn from each other. Women bring a set of ideas, skills, preferences and attributes to the table…Whether we’re talking about a young woman who grew up on a family dairy farm in Sheboygan County, or an African American who grew up in Chicago, attended the Chicago Ag High School and then graduated near the top of his or her class in soil science, agronomy, ag engineering or one of the animal sciences at a place like Madison, Iowa State, Purdue, or the University of Minnesota… Agriculture is increasingly a people and relationship business. As I learned early in my career as a white male farm kid from the ruralist of rural areas of Indiana, building a career in the ag sector takes time. You need time and space to learn and make mistakes. You salty, seasoned veterans: We need to work together to create opportunities. For ALL young people – including women -- to lead. To participate in professional development. To provide input. We need the ideas and creativity of ALL people in our workplaces. Guys --- use your influence to introduce young people. Male or female. Black or white. Asian, European, or Minnesotan. Role model respect. Use your relationships to introduce new people into the industry and to your customers. Embrace new ideas and approaches to problems. And celebrate it when a person cares enough to recognize there’s a problem --- and then she or he takes the time to really think about it --- and approach it in new ways! Wisconsin Agriculture needs this kind of thinking, so let’s embrace it!
- Last slide! Summary thoughts – FIRST: We’ve NEVER seen change like we see today. It’s really about the RATE of change. It’s also about new ways and paradigms of doing business! If you’re an engineer and tinkerer like me, I can’t think of a more exciting time to be in agriculture. If you’re not one to embrace change and ideas, it’s going to be a scary time if we simply sit back and let it happen to us! Hopefully I’ve given you some cues today – Cues to LISTEN, to READ, and to LEARN. But we need to do it together. I wish you all the best and urge you to stay safe this 2017 season! Thank you. Photo Credit: Nolanberg11 @ Shutterstock.com (under paid license)