SIBF Annual Summit 2013: Opportunities of the Present, Crises of the Future - Peter Zeihan
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SIBF Annual Summit 2013: Opportunities of the Present, Crises of the Future - Peter Zeihan
- 1. Geopolitical Evolutions • The Dawn of the American Age – Geography, Demography and Shale Energy • The (Real) Crises of the Future – The North American Drug War – European History Recommences – The China War – The Alberta Question – Militancy and immigration go big and go global Peter Zeihan SIBF October 5, 2013
- 2. Bretton Woods: Restructuring the World 1946: U.S. dominates high seas Formation of Bretton Woods – Establishes World Bank, IMF, and USD as the global currency – U.S. grants market access without demanding reciprocity – Adherents defer to U.S. security policy – U.S. uses maritime strength to guarantee maritime trade
- 3. Bretton Woods: A World Restructured BW turned maritime rivals into allies and clients, leaving only disparate land powers to challenge the American power (that’s hard)
- 5. Bretton Woods: A World Restructured
- 6. The American Geography Integrated natural transport network overlaying gigantic piece of useable land Unified, capital-rich polity Two oceans Massive military insulation Direct access to two trading basins Net effect Largest market Largest agricultural producer/exporter Largest military
- 8. Shale: Acceptance? • Groundwater contamination (porous v non) • The “toxicity” issue is about to vanish • Even without “approval” is already remaking the system 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Electricity Prices US total NY TX CA
- 9. Shale Output: Only Local… United States Middle East FSU Europe China Deep capital supplies 5 4 2 4 3 Legions of autonomous petro- engineers 5 1 2 3 2 Legal system that rewards landholders 5 3 3 1 2 Preexisting collection/ distribution infrastructure 5 2 5 4 2
- 10. The Situation at the End of an Era • Large, stable, growing market • Energy secure • No hegemonic rival • Dominates (but doesn’t need) intl trade Energy/trade no longer central concerns of strategic policy U.S. largely immune to intl system
- 11. Every culture has a national neurosis, the Americans’ is... manic depression – Pearl Harbor – Sputnik – Vietnam – Japanphobia – Sept 11, 2001 A Critical Point About the Americans: Geopolitics and Culture
- 12. The First (Mexican) Problem: A Very Hostile Geography No rivers, few ports Low capital generation Mountainous, disassociated territories No infrastructure EcoS Will never be a strong state
- 13. The Second (Mexican-American) “Problem”: An Economic Miracle Not to Be Missed 1) China is losing the ability to subsidize its competitiveness 2) Remember U.S. shale 3) Young demographics generate growth (and cheap labor) 4) Drug war makes Mexican labor more attractive
- 14. The Third (Mexican-American) Problem: Not a Normal Border 2013 • 0.7t cu feet of natgas • $500b of bilateral trade • 350m legal border crossings 2020 • 3t cu feet of natgas • $650b of bilateral trade • 500m legal border crossings The Fourth (American) Problem: America’s only Ghettoized Community
- 15. Crisis #1: The North American Drug War • American naval interception created the Mexican land route (and the cartels) • The cartels can expand along land routes
- 16. The First Chinese Problem: Unity Northern consolidation difficult; Yellow River unnavigable Beijing is the political/military capital Yangtze is navigable Shanghai is the economic capital South has good ports, but (sub)tropical Greatly retards northern control Encourages foreign presence
- 17. The Second Chinese Problem: The Limits of Bribery • Country requires social binding agent Private capital pooled, then funneled at sub- market rates Maximize employment by large firm size, market share and throughput at the cost of debt and profitability Subsidizes inputs and outputs
- 18. ? The Third Chinese Problem: Nationwide Subprime
- 19. Crisis #3: The China Wars
- 20. The First Canadian Problem: Transport
- 21. The Second Canadian Problem: Old
- 22. The Third Canadian Problem: Needs Mismatch Population heft 22 million in eastern, Eur- oriented core 3.6 million, sequestered near U.S. Midwest Demography Aging towards mass retirement American-style double bulge Tax structure High: support aging pop Low: support young pop and energy industry Currency preference Strong: preserve purchasing power Weak: facilitate commodity exports/FDI Alternative markets None needed None available
- 23. Option 2: The Prairie KuwaitOption 3: The 51st stateOption 1: Patriotic but poor(ish) Crisis #4: The Alberta Question
- 24. A World Without Canada? • US completely energy (and largely mineral) independent • The “adult” factor
- 25. Crisis #5: Militancy and Immigration Go Big and Go Global
- 26. Global Stability Map: Militancy • Militants like collapsed states • Transborder terrorists like weak states
- 27. Global Stability Map: Immigration • Skilled labor likes stability and growth – Steady influx of fleeing capital and high-skilled labor – Keeps cap on capital and labor costs
- 28. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US Brazil China India Mexico Russia Turkey Indonesia The Cheat Sheet Slide