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Managing Producer Risk
       introduction to the
   Client Portfolio Manager
            Fall, 2012
who we are

An affiliate of the Silveus Insurance Group




Based in Chicago with branch offices in Indiana and an
agent network across the USA

          online at www.silveusfinancial.com
what we do

• Work exclusively with producers and commercials
• Help clients understand and utilize agricultural risk
  management products
• Provide brokerage for listed futures and options and
  structured OTC products
• Work with clients’ banks and OTC dealers to arrange
  for margin financing and credit lines
• Monitor client positions, send periodic risk reports,
  and suggest strategies as market conditions change
how we do it

• We have a proprietary approach that is disciplined
  and analytical
• We stay focused on post harvest profits and the risks
  across multiple dimensions
      Profit = Yield x Price – Input Costs
• We take a portfolio approach to managing risk
• We overlay alternatives: insurance, futures and
  options, and OTC structured products
• We invest in tools and technology that facilitates
  management of the entire portfolio
our tools

                Client Portfolio Manager
We track everything a producer does or believes that can
affect his end of year profits across all his crops:
   •   Acres planted and input cost per acre
   •   Insurance bought
   •   Bushels sold forward
   •   Futures and options trades executed
   •   OTC Accumulators entered into
   •   Assumptions about yields and basis

We aggregate all the above together and focus on his net
overall P&L across two dimensions of risk:
   • Actual yield at harvest (bushels/acre)
   • Harvest price ($s/bushel)
Client Portfolio Mgr
     Example: Producer in Ohio (Corn & Beans)
                  xxxxxxxx
                  xxxxxxxx


                             Acres planted
                                                  Insurance purchased




                                                       We keep a chronology of
                                                    everything our producer client
Yield and basis                                        has done or believes with
 expectations
                                                      respect to his farm and his
                                                    crops that could affect his P&L
                                                              at harvest.


                                                                 Futures and
                                                                options traded
Client Portfolio Mgr
           Net Position for Corn
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx




                            We net everything down by crop
                             and use current futures prices
                            and options volatilities to place
                             a “mark-to-market” value on
                                   each open item.
Client Portfolio Mgr
                     P&L Matrix
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx




                            Yield



           Harvest
            Price


                         We stay focused on the P&L
                          post-harvest across two
                             dimensions of risk.
Client Portfolio Mgr
                             Farm P&L Matrix for Corn
                  xxxxxxxx
                  xxxxxxxx




                                                Note the potential for significant
                                                 losses if no risk management
The P&L from                                      products are incorporated.
   his crop is
highly variable
given different
  price/yield
    points.
Client Portfolio Mgr
                             Net Insurance P&L

                  xxxxxxxx
                  xxxxxxxx

                                         Premium paid
                                         w/no payout




 That’s why we
     always
  recommend
crop insurance.
 The insurance
pays just where
                             Insurance
  it’s needed.                kicks in
Client Portfolio Mgr
                                Farm + Insurance P&L
                     xxxxxxxx
                     xxxxxxxx




     With the
  appropriate
    insurance                                           But a huge
policies in place,                                     upside bias to
 the chance for                                         corn prices
   loss can be                                           remains.
  eliminated.
Client Portfolio Mgr
                          Risk Reduction with Options
                    xxxxxxxx
                    xxxxxxxx




  We can use                            Calls sold to
  futures and                         generate income
   options to
 offset some of
this bias to corn
      prices
                                  Put spreads bought provide
                                    profits to the downside
Client Portfolio Mgr
             P&L when including *Everything*
            xxxxxxxx
            xxxxxxxx




                                            When we look at
                                           everything together
                                            as a portfolio, the
                                                P&L is now
                                               comfortably
                                            balanced across a
 Even if yields                               wide range of
fall and prices                                 price/yield
 soar, the P&L                                  outcomes.
is known and
    sizable.
Client Portfolio Mgr
                Re-Centered Matrix after Drought
               xxxxxxxx
               xxxxxxxx




Sure enough,
 despite the
drought and
 heat wave
  changing
 everything,
 overall P&L                            Price and yield
remains just                             re-calibrated
  what was                                   to new
  expected.                                 realities
Client Portfolio Mgr
                  Re-Centered Matrix after Drought
                 xxxxxxxx
                 xxxxxxxx




The expected
   profits are
attractive but
  in this case
 there’s now
                                            We always
 risk again to                             think ahead
  corn prices
heading back                              “what should
     down!                                we do now?”
Client Portfolio Mgr
               Testing New Hedges in the Matrix

           xxxxxxxx
           xxxxxxxx




  The CPM allows us to test out different
    hedging alternatives. Here, we are
considering selling 15 futures to hedge the
 risk that prices may fall and profits drop.
Client Portfolio Mgr
    P&L from the Proposed Hedge

xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx




            By selling some
            futures, we can
           offset some of the
           profit drop if corn
           prices move back
                 down.
Client Portfolio Mgr
    Overall P&L if Hedge Executed

xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxx




   The end result is a nicely balanced P&L profile with little
   profit variance across a wide range of yields and prices!
why work with us?

• We educate, inform, and consult - not sell

• Access to a complete set of risk
  management products and strategies

• Deeper and more comprehensive
  understanding of your overall risks

• Superior tools and technology

• Provide individualized portfolio analysis
getting started

• Fill and fax back the “Getting Started” form
• We verify details and enter into the CPM
• Schedule a one-on-one online meeting to go
  over risks to your profitability
• Jointly examine various hedging alternatives
• Two ways to work with us:
  ①   Open accounts and let us broker hedges
  ②   Straight risk consulting arrangement
Silveus Financial - Managing Producer Risk

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Silveus Financial - Managing Producer Risk

  • 1. Managing Producer Risk introduction to the Client Portfolio Manager Fall, 2012
  • 2. who we are An affiliate of the Silveus Insurance Group Based in Chicago with branch offices in Indiana and an agent network across the USA online at www.silveusfinancial.com
  • 3. what we do • Work exclusively with producers and commercials • Help clients understand and utilize agricultural risk management products • Provide brokerage for listed futures and options and structured OTC products • Work with clients’ banks and OTC dealers to arrange for margin financing and credit lines • Monitor client positions, send periodic risk reports, and suggest strategies as market conditions change
  • 4. how we do it • We have a proprietary approach that is disciplined and analytical • We stay focused on post harvest profits and the risks across multiple dimensions Profit = Yield x Price – Input Costs • We take a portfolio approach to managing risk • We overlay alternatives: insurance, futures and options, and OTC structured products • We invest in tools and technology that facilitates management of the entire portfolio
  • 5. our tools Client Portfolio Manager We track everything a producer does or believes that can affect his end of year profits across all his crops: • Acres planted and input cost per acre • Insurance bought • Bushels sold forward • Futures and options trades executed • OTC Accumulators entered into • Assumptions about yields and basis We aggregate all the above together and focus on his net overall P&L across two dimensions of risk: • Actual yield at harvest (bushels/acre) • Harvest price ($s/bushel)
  • 6. Client Portfolio Mgr Example: Producer in Ohio (Corn & Beans) xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx Acres planted Insurance purchased We keep a chronology of everything our producer client Yield and basis has done or believes with expectations respect to his farm and his crops that could affect his P&L at harvest. Futures and options traded
  • 7. Client Portfolio Mgr Net Position for Corn xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx We net everything down by crop and use current futures prices and options volatilities to place a “mark-to-market” value on each open item.
  • 8. Client Portfolio Mgr P&L Matrix xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx Yield Harvest Price We stay focused on the P&L post-harvest across two dimensions of risk.
  • 9. Client Portfolio Mgr Farm P&L Matrix for Corn xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx Note the potential for significant losses if no risk management The P&L from products are incorporated. his crop is highly variable given different price/yield points.
  • 10. Client Portfolio Mgr Net Insurance P&L xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx Premium paid w/no payout That’s why we always recommend crop insurance. The insurance pays just where Insurance it’s needed. kicks in
  • 11. Client Portfolio Mgr Farm + Insurance P&L xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx With the appropriate insurance But a huge policies in place, upside bias to the chance for corn prices loss can be remains. eliminated.
  • 12. Client Portfolio Mgr Risk Reduction with Options xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx We can use Calls sold to futures and generate income options to offset some of this bias to corn prices Put spreads bought provide profits to the downside
  • 13. Client Portfolio Mgr P&L when including *Everything* xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx When we look at everything together as a portfolio, the P&L is now comfortably balanced across a Even if yields wide range of fall and prices price/yield soar, the P&L outcomes. is known and sizable.
  • 14. Client Portfolio Mgr Re-Centered Matrix after Drought xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx Sure enough, despite the drought and heat wave changing everything, overall P&L Price and yield remains just re-calibrated what was to new expected. realities
  • 15. Client Portfolio Mgr Re-Centered Matrix after Drought xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx The expected profits are attractive but in this case there’s now We always risk again to think ahead corn prices heading back “what should down! we do now?”
  • 16. Client Portfolio Mgr Testing New Hedges in the Matrix xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx The CPM allows us to test out different hedging alternatives. Here, we are considering selling 15 futures to hedge the risk that prices may fall and profits drop.
  • 17. Client Portfolio Mgr P&L from the Proposed Hedge xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx By selling some futures, we can offset some of the profit drop if corn prices move back down.
  • 18. Client Portfolio Mgr Overall P&L if Hedge Executed xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx The end result is a nicely balanced P&L profile with little profit variance across a wide range of yields and prices!
  • 19. why work with us? • We educate, inform, and consult - not sell • Access to a complete set of risk management products and strategies • Deeper and more comprehensive understanding of your overall risks • Superior tools and technology • Provide individualized portfolio analysis
  • 20. getting started • Fill and fax back the “Getting Started” form • We verify details and enter into the CPM • Schedule a one-on-one online meeting to go over risks to your profitability • Jointly examine various hedging alternatives • Two ways to work with us: ① Open accounts and let us broker hedges ② Straight risk consulting arrangement