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THE
 SIX IMMUTABLE
     LAWS OF
MOBILE BUSINESS

   Presented by Marco Koeder
        January 19th, 2010
THE
MOBILE
REVOLUTION
The global mobile revolution is here


 Over 4 billion mobile subscribers
  SMS & Voice: just the beginning
The real power & excitement
             lies in
  content and new services
   built on this foundation.
whether or not you you have
  currently embraced the
     mobile platform,
you ultimately must and will
More than half the world’s
population owns a mobile
         phone
Soon the world’s entire
 population will live in
  range of a mobile
       network.
Mobile phones are the most
ubiquitous and indispensable
digital devices on the planet.
There are four times more
mobile phone subscribers
 than Internet subscribers
global revenues from mobile
    phone-related services
             =
revenues from total worldwide
     crude oil production
“We are rapidly getting to the point
where the single most important
medium that people have is their
wireless device.”

                 Andrew Robertson, CEO of BBDO
The mobile phone will soon
 replace television in the minds
(and budgets) of the advertising
            industry.
…the same might happen to
newspapers and magazines
The mobile phone now is becoming….

a camera, a house key, a corporate security card, a
credit card, an airplane boarding pass, a game machine,
a music player, an Internet browser, a watch, an alarm
clock, an excuse to leave a meeting early, a scheduling
tool, and a wallet

…and still has the function of plain old telephony.
Mobile phones will change our
personal and professional lives.
NO
other service or technology
has ever reached a similar
  diffusion level in such a
         short time.
MOBILE
INTERNET
$150 billion
global market size for mobile
content and services by 2011
50%
 of mobile subscribers
worldwide will use mobile
   browsing by 2011
The West:
 a mobile net
“late bloomer”
WEST


  device            net          mobile
applications     applications      net




Non-Smartphone   Smartphone     Smartphone
    driven         driven         driven
9%
use their mobile phone to
  access online content
Most of them are
iPhone & Blackberry users
91%

A huge untapped market for
      mobile content
JAPAN


             +                    +
  mobile             device               net
   net             applications        applications



Non-Smartphone   Non-Smartphone       Non-Smartphone
    driven           driven               driven
Why learn from
   Japan?
JAPAN
100+ million mobile phone
      subscribers
  Population 127 million
Worlds 4th largest wireless
       population

But globally only 3% of all
          users.
90 Million active 3G
    subscribers

17% of all global 3G
   subscriptions
85%
  of Japanese mobile
subscribers use mobile
       browsing
40%
  of all global revenue
 generated from mobile
data is generated in Japan
10+ years
of mobile content success
   and working mobile
     business models
Immutable Law#1
Value Over Culture
“Well well, isn’t that just
  a Japanese thing?”
Japanese culture has had
  no significant impact on
the success of the mobile
     Internet in Japan
The secret of success
   is not about the
  culture but about
 servicing these four
       categories
1.Inform
2.Transact
3.Entertain
4.Express
Instead of focusing on
cultural aspects, focus on
 providing true value to
       consumers.
Inform, Transact, Entertain,
         Express
Immutable Law#2
 The Law of the
   Ecosystem
The ecosystem
  approach
Global revenues generated from
    advanced data services
      85 billion Euro.
(text messaging &mobile internet content usage)
Japanese mobile subscribers
contributed 16.6 billion Euro.
       Approximately
          19 %
Removing revenues from sending
SMS, Japanese mobile consumers
 contributed approximately
  2.5 billion Euro, or 36%
 of the world’s 7 billion Euro in
 non-text-related mobile data
           revenues
The reason behind
   the success:

 The ecosystem
“An ecosystem consists of
communities of interacting organisms
  and the physical environment in
         which they live.”
            Bill Moyers, 2001
Within an ecosystem, the roles of
the various members remain in
     collaborative balance.
If its resources are overextended,
   the entire ecosystem can (and
         usually will) collapse.
DoCoMo keeps just 9% of
 subscription revenues,
 passing 91% to content
       companies.
The percentage held by
  mobile carriers abroad
typically runs from 50% to
   60% at the highest.
The mobile internet would
flourish only if the right content
and services were developed and
     deployed in a way that
     consumers could easily
     understand and adopt.
The Japanese way
The takeaway
Create a mutually
beneficial environment for
  value, innovation and
          growth.
Immutable Law#3
Mobility Empowers
The power of
   control
Joining the wireless revolution by
buying a mobile phone turns people
     into hubs within these larger
wireless networks, enabling them to
  link together with other hubs to
          exchange messages.
Empowering
the individual
people can connect with any other
    hub and communicate with
 information databases providing
 content such as current weather
    forecasts, news and games.
It is also possible to connect to
other hubs that are animate, such
cats or dogs, and inanimate, such
  as the stereo or refrigerator at
               home.
1.
       Embrace the environment
   by becoming more actively involved

                  2.
        Escape the environment,
emotionally withdrawing from what’s going
                    on.
embrace
data, things,   other people.


                 escape
The takeaway
Two compelling
   opportunities
Create a sustainable, long-
term competitive advantage
 via the mobile platform by
1.
Further enhancing the consumer’s ability
     to escape or embrace his/her
             surroundings

                  2.
   Providing consumers with greater
 control over their roles as hub within
        the wireless ecosystem
Immutable Law#4
The Value of Time
     Zones
Mobile =
Media “on the go”?
Not really!
70%
 of mobile use
happens at fixed
    locations
mobile content use
is not location- or
   time-specific
Two approaches to content
  irrespective of location
              1.
short bursts of varying duration
              2.
  longer, dedicated attention
Time zones concept
Time Zone #1
       In-Between-Time
Content and services must be concise,
 easy to access and understand, and
 easy to drop and pick up again later
Time Zone #2
              Golden Time
Longer-term, dedicated usage. Larger blocks of time
 available to focus on content and services. Explore
      and engage more, and for longer periods.
In this time zone, content and services can have more
                  depth and breadth.
The takeaway
People spend far more
 time in fixed locations
     than roaming.
They mostly use their
    mobiles there.
Understanding the concept of
   user time zones will allow
  to develop and offer more
 valuable and effective content
and services in mobile markets
           worldwide.
While mobile consumers
  appreciate in-between
   content and services,
 golden time should take
         priority.
Immutable Law#5
Mobile-Specific Business
 Models Are Essential
The “2.0” paradigm shift:

 From passive user to active
        contributor

   From lean back to lean
          forward.
It is interesting to note
that the mobile platform
 was the main driver for
     Web 2.0 in Japan.
Case studies
Many of these services do not
depend on advertising revenue
as their sole source of income,
  which has helped them to
develop more valuable services
    for their customers and
          stakeholders.
mahoo no island
          market share 38%
Mahou no Island translates as Magic Island.

Started as a free homepage service for mobiles
                and PCs in 1999

   The services allowed users to develop a
personal homepage for mobile phones without
      the need of a PC, and at no cost.
The key strategic move Mahou no Island
 made was to let users create content in
addition to the usual homepages, profiles,
bulletin boards and other communications.

This was essentially an SNS platform long
 before companies like MySpace hit the
                  scene.
What started as a free
   hosting and content
creation platform turned
 into SNS, novels, music
       and dramas
6 million
mobile users
 4.5 billion page views
Create your own
 mobile novels
   Started in 2006
1.8 million
registered writers
1million
mobile novels
 In less than 3 months
Working with two Japanese
 publishers, the company
decided to print the novels
   that ranked highest.
Books
40 titles
published as novels
17 million
 copies sold
Created a new book
category in the industry:

   “keitai novels”
In 2007 Maho no Island launched
      Island Music Factory.
    Amateur and independent
  professional artists can upload,
 promote and publish their work
on the site and share it with other
               users.
5.000
songs uploaded
  In less than 2 months
In 2008 Avex, Japans
biggest music label, released
  the first CD of an artists
 discovered on Mahoo no
           Island.
In 2008 the platform added a
service called Mahou no Island TV,
    which features video dramas
 based on user-generated novels.
To date, seven novels had
been made into special mobile
         TV dramas.
Success Stories: KOIZORA
25 million
readers of the mobile version
1.4 million
 printed books sold
2 million
manga books sold
3.1 million
viewers of the movie
soundtrack
music composed by users
still growing
   keitai creators festival”
    2008: 2.956 active
    2009: 10.000 active
mobile game town
           market share 38%
Mobage-town (short for Mobile Game
    Town) was launched in 2006.

The site offers free single and multiplayer
games, SNS functionality, location-based
           services and avatars.

             MOBILE ONLY
Casual games are the lure at
          Mobage-town.
The platform offers over a hundred
 different games and adds several
 new ones each month. Most are
simple one-button games, and can
    be played on most Japanese
             handsets.
Registered users can create their own profile
page displaying their interests, hobbies and a
 personal avatar, as well as a room for the
              avatar to inhabit.
This room is placed on a virtual map of Japan
that defines the virtual neighborhoods of the
                 users.
15 million
registered users
clever
business model
To personalize their avatars, users need
to purchase clothes or accessories using
  a virtual currency called Moba-Gold.
Mobage-town offers a service that
 permits users to write and upload
novels or read novels submitted by
            other users.

Within less than six months, over
   280,000 novels had been
            submitted.
There is also a Music Creators
  Corner where subscribers can
  submit original music. It is also
  possible to look “local” artists.

Within six months after the launch,
 around 2.500 songs had been
    uploaded to the platform
DeNa’s subsidiary Pocket Affiliate
handles advertising and affiliate site
 management for Mobage-town.
 Mobage-town also introduced
   location-based games and
 advertising services that further
   focus its revenue activities.
Mobage-town became one of most
 successful mobile platforms in Japan.
It also became the most active mobile
       site in terms of page views,
outperforming Mixi Mobile and Japan’s
   number one mobile portal, Yahoo!
                  Mobile.
The takeaway
Japan has already been beyond the
 number-dot-zero buzz for a long
                time.

Working, solid mobile business
    models are in place.
All this was based on an
  early understanding of the
     power of the mobile
        channel and the
  importance of the mobile
phone compared to the PC.
The ad-supported mobile
business model is not the
best and is not sustainable!

    We suggest other approaches:
In developing the business
model for a mobile site or
        solutions the
 following 8 points can be
       inspirations…
1.
   Social networking as the hub


               2.
Two-tier memberships / Freemiums


               3.
 Affiliate marketing opportunities

               4.
  User-generated media models
5.
  Value virtual currency


           6.
Fixed mobile convergence


           7.
        Stickiness


           8.
   Value-added tools
Immutable Law#6
The Future is Simplexity
Mobile owners use less
 than 20% of the
  applications and
 capabilities of their
       phones
80%
 of the money spent on developing new
applications & functions has been wasted
“95% of returned consumer
electronic products who seemed
    to be broken are actually
      functioning perfectly.”
         Accenture study, 2008
The “broken” part
   is the user!
It is time to rethink how
   people interact with
     devices and digital
          services.
The age of
Simplexity
A critical shift in thinking
 is required to develop
successful and profitable
technology products and
         services.
It is time to rethink how
   people interact with
     devices and digital
          services.
Consumers should not serve
      technology.
Technology should support
  and serve consumers!
case study
video games
Limited audience of only
    hardcore gamers
Gamers were still seen as a niche
   market within the overall
  electronic consumer goods
            industry.
The mantra of the hardcore
   gamer community is:
  bigger is better
Whenever a new console came
out, hardcore gamers upgraded
         automatically.
The video game industry and the
console makers warred over this
dedicated but finite audience.
Way too complex
THEN
Nintendo was able to open up
gaming to a total new audience
In 2004, based on that research, they
 released a portable gaming console
       called the Nintendo DS.
The company put great effort into
reducing the complexity of gaming and
           gaming controls
The message was:
If you know how to use a pen, you can
      use this device and have fun.
Nintendo even started producing
educational titles to help users increase
  their skills and knowledge in many
 different fields with the tap of a pen.
Instead of fighting over the
  finite market of hardcore
           gamers,
Nintendo used Simplexity to
open up a totally new market.
In 2006 Nintendo launched the Wii.

  A simple home video game system,
which uses a motion sensor input device
   that resembles a remote control.
The controller is intuitive and simple
for the user but filled with high-tech
     components that translate
  movement into game mechanics.
The games were also innovative
  simple, easy to understand, and
  offered many options for playing
 together with family and friends, a
concept that appealed greatly to the
            non-gamer.
The outcome
A global(!) success
Both systems won fans all over
the world, and captivated a new
           audience:
      non-techies
By 2009 Nintendo had sold
 over 106 million DS
 consoles and more than
  53 million Wii units
       worldwide.
The DS and the Wii were
    new concepts of
     Simplexity
the takeaway
The “post-manual”
     society
Simplexity combines technology,
integrated services, intelligent analysis
 (preference, behavior based) and an
  easy-to-use interface based on and
driven by user needs and capabilities.
1.
         Tap into the learning curve
                             2.
Offer anticipatory services, information
                             3.
        Be user-ecosystem relevant
(based on the user’s current situation, location, needs, etc.)

                             4.
            Add incremental value
        (boost the value of the service over time)
While many players
  struggle to make larger
     screens and wider
keypads, or pump up their
 content and services….
…Simplexity will be what
 truly empowers individual
 users through their mobile
          devices.
How will your mobile
Net offerings move from
  the complex to the

     Simplex?
THANK YOU
       Marco Koeder
 marco@siximmutablelaws.com

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