This document discusses several issues facing society:
1) Monetary instability and how to prepare for the possibility of financial crisis.
2) Population aging as an unprecedented global phenomenon and how to provide for the elderly.
3) The information revolution and how technology is changing how we spend our time and communicate.
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Future trends
1. Monetary Instability
The Age Wave How can we prepare for the Climate Change
possibility of monetary crisis?
The Future
How can we resolve the
How will society provide the
conflict between short-term
elderly with the money to
financial interests and long-
match their longevity? Information Revolution term sustainability?
How can we provide a living to additional
billions of people when technology makes
jobless growth a possibility?
2. my parent’s expectations
used to be simple
“Family” Was
responsibility
10
8
6
4
Own
Live with family
2 parents
Children
leave home Partner dies
0 Age
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
3. today’s expectations
very complicated
“Family” Second marriage
extended family Was
responsibility
Relocate Have
Contemporary
10 Live with children
Relocate
a partner Get Divorce
Student
Live with Travel married
8 Start Parent Relocate
parents abroad work Buy dies Live
home Relocate
Rent with third
6 home Children partner
leave home
Partner
4 dies
Own
Live with family
2 parents
Children
leave home Partner dies
0 Age
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
4. Population Ageing
• Unprecedented: without parallel
in human history—and the
twenty-first century will witness
even more rapid ageing than did
the century just past.
• Pervasive: a global phenomenon
affecting every man, woman and
child—but countries are at very
different stages of the process.
• Enduring: we will not return to
the young populations that our
ancestors knew.
• Profound.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
5. Information Revolution
• 1940’s, Thomas Watson
predicted world market for
‘maybe five computers’
• 1975, 50,000 were operating
• 1997, >140 million
• 1999, >600 million
• 2010, >1.8 billion
6. Information Revolution
We now spend:
• 22.7% of our internet time on social networks
• 10.2% online gaming
• 8.3% emailing
• 4.4% on portals
• 4% instant messaging
Source: Nielsen, August 2010
7. Mobile Planet
There are:
• 5 billion active mobile phone
subscribers out there
• 4.1 billion actively used mobile
telephones
• 4 billion text message users, increasing
at 19% per annum
• 2.2 billion bank accounts in use
• 1.6 billion television sets
• 1.4 billion email users, increasing at
7% per annum
• 1.25 landlines at its peak, as there are
now 1.15 billion and falling
• 1.2 PCs of any kind
8. Killing the Planet?
• UK emissions of carbon dioxide currently
account for about 2% of the global total
• Emissions from transport are increasing –
10% increase nationally since 1990
• Air travel currently accounts for about
6.3% of total carbon dioxide emissions
• Each UK resident was responsible for 10.5
tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2007
• The UK is committed to cutting carbon
dioxide emissions to 50% below 1990
levels by 2050
9. Climate Change
• Worldwide, 10 of the hottest years
on record have occurred since 1990
(records began in 1861)
• Global sea level rose by between
10 and 20 cm during the 20th
century
• Average yearly temperatures in
central England have risen by
almost 1°C over the last 100 years
• The highest temperature ever
recorded in the UK is 38.5°C, on 1st
August 2003 in Kent
10. Monetary Instability
A global money meltdown in 2008
$600 trillion in OTC Derivatives outstanding
Lehmans collapsed with $400bn in debts
amounting to $10tn in risk
$5 trillion is traded in foreign exchange markets
every day
• 300 times more than the trading volume of all
the stockmarkets of the world combined
Only 2% of these foreign exchange transactions
relate to real goods and services
• 98% is purely speculative
Cause of the foreign exchange crises in Mexico
in 1994-5, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998
11. • Of the 100 richest economies, 51 are now corporations, e.g. sales by General Motors
are greater than GDP of Denmark, or Ford than South Africa
• The world’s 200 largest corporations control 28% of the global economy and employ
<0.3% of its population to achieve that
• The sales of the world’s largest 200 corporations are equivalent to 30% of Global GDP,
and are more than the combined GDP of all but the top 9 countries
• 33% of global trade is intra-company
• American corporations pay less in US taxes than they receive in public subsidies
• In 1960, the CEO earned 30 times more than the average worker; today, the CEO earns
200 times more
12. The Challenge
• 1% of the World
Population get 80% of
resources
• Half of the world’s
peoples live on less than
$1 a day
• 50,000 people die every
day due to manmade
poverty