1. Towards Improved Decision Making for
Different Types of Farmers and Other
Different Types of Farmers and Other
Sector Stakeholders:
Reflections on Agricultural Market Information
R fl ti A i lt l M k t I f ti
Developments and Challenges in Zambia
M.T. Weber
ACF/FSRP and Michigan State University
Presented at “Workshop on Agricultural Market Information
Workshop
Systems in Africa: Renewal and Impact” Montpellier, France
29-31 March, , 2010
2. Outline of Presentation
Outline of Presentation
1. Identify sources of agriculture/food price
1 Identify sources of agriculture/food price
information and use in Zambia.
2. Identify and discuss the implications of
2 Identify and discuss the implications of
differences among:
‐ small/medium farmers =0 20 ha & customary land
small/medium farmers =0‐20 ha & customary land
(1.5 million small & medium‐scale farmers
‐ commercial farmers = >20 ha and free hold title
commercial farmers = >20 ha and free‐hold title
(1400 commercial farms– less than 500 farm>500 ha
3. Discuss the importance of the asking the question
3 Di th i t f th ki th ti
of what information for whom?
3. Zambian Agricultural Market
Information Sources
• ZNFU SMS Trade Bid (CAMIS Cambodia)
• ZAMACE (Commodity Exchange)
• CSO retail prices
• AMIC Ag Market Information Center
AMIC – Ag Market Information Center
• FEWs Net Markets (Use of CSO price data)
4. Empirical Data on
Smallholders
in Zambia – Nation Wide
Random Surveys
Map of Central Statistical Office Statistical Enumeration Areas (SEAs) Sampled
in the CSO/MACO/FSRP Post Harvest and Supplemental Surveys in
2001, 2004 and 2008 by Zambia’s Agro-Ecological Zones
5. % of Small/Medium‐Scale Farmers
Growing Crops
G i C
Attributes
Att ib t Crop
C 1999/00 2002/03 2006/07 trend
t d
Maize 80 80 84
Cassava 38 39 34
%
HH Groundnuts
G d 36 42 38
Growing Sweet
28 19 13
potatoes
Cotton 6 10 10
6. Under Appreciated Facts About Small &
Medium‐Scale Farmers
M di S l F
Most rural farm households are buyers of maize
(or net buyers)
‐‐‐28 % of smallholders are net maize sellers
28 % of smallholders are net mai e sellers
‐‐‐49 % of smallholders are net supplemental buyers of
maize (11 % did not produce any maize);
‐‐‐23 % produced but did not sell nor buy maize
Highly concentrated patterns of surplus
generation ‐ 2% of farm households account for
generation 2% of farm households account for
50% of marketed maize surplus
Maize market position is highly associated with
Maize market position is highly associated with
area cropped and household assets
7. How to Help ‐ Which Farmers & What
Information Helps Solve Their Problems?
I f i H l S l Th i P bl ?
2500.00 2.50
Mea cropped area(Ha)
2000.00 2.00
1500.00
acha
1.50
d
000 Kwa
1000.00
1.00
500.00
an
00
.00 .50
-500.00 .00
Net sellers Net buyers Net buyers with Not in market
(28.0%)
(28 0%) with maize no maize (23.4%)
(23 4%)
production production
(37.9%) (10.7%)
Maize Farmer Category
Net sales (not in 000 Kwacha) Gross value of maize production
Value of assets Cultivated land area
2008 (07/08 Crop Marketing Season)
8. Disparities in Livelihoods Within
Smallholder Agriculture, Zambia
N= Farm Asset Gr. Rev., Gr. Rev., Total hh
size values maize sales crop sales gross
(ha) (US$) (US$) (US$) income
(US$)
$
Top 50% of
small/medium 30,043 7.2 3,703 3,199 3,354 7,624
maize sales (2%)
Rest of maize
sellers 388,795 1.9 257 172 252 1,272
( %)
(26%)
Households
not selling 1,083,395 1.1 129 0 57 756
maize (72%)
Source: CSO Supplemental surveys, 2008
9. Village Leader Indication of Maize Grain Shortages in
Their Areas When HHs Want To Buy
Nor LUA N CB Ce East Ls Sout Wes Natio
ther W ntr ern ak hern tern nal
n al a
Number of Village
179 119 67 41 61 238 27 163 158 1,053
Leaders Interviewed
% of Leaders saying
there are months of
year when hhs in
93 87 97 85 88 97 96 94 95 93 %
village who want to
buy maize but there is
none available
Most Common Month 12 1 11 10 12 1 12 12 10 12
2nd Month 1 2 12 11 1 2 1 1 11 1
3rd Month 2 3 1 12 2 3 2 2 12 2
10. Zambia ‐ Maize Situation & Market Information for
2007/2008 Marketing Year
Type of Number of Production Sales Mean Farm‐ Market Information Needs?
Farmer Farmers Metric tons Metric tons Level Storage
Home Use
Commercial 1400 218,728 174,164 (80 %) Selling Prices, Buyers, Exports
S/M –Sellers (28 %) 418,802 1,319,774 762,093 (58%) 1.3 mt Selling Prices, Buyers, Storage
[30,150] [381,046 Information
S/M – Buyers
/ (38 %) 576,694
( ) 411,391 0 (0 %)
( ) 1.0 mt Stocks, Buying Prices, Storage
Information, Wage Information,
Prices non‐farm goods/services
S/M –Buyer (11%) 159,507 0 0 (0 %) 0 Buying Prices, Wage
–No
N information, Prices Non‐Farm
i f ti Pi N F
Production goods/services
S/M ‐ (29 %) 347,194 229,527 0 (0 %) .8 mt Good years – Selling Price
Autarkic Bad Years – Buying Price
Storage
Small/Med 1,502,197 1,960,692 762,093 (58 %) .9 mt
Tot.
Other Important Stakeholders to also Consider:
Other Important Stakeholders to also Consider:
Small Trader/Assembly, Trader/Wholesale, Trader/Importer/Exporter,
Millers/Feed Manufacture, FRA Security Stock
11. Discussion and Brainstorming
• Many tools are becoming available for farmers with volumes to
sell – this needs to continue & link to regional trade options
• In most years there seems to be too much maize leaving local
areas – what information might help improve local stocks?
• In some years an increased number of smallholders may have
In some years an increased number of smallholders may have
small quantities to sell. How to serve them?
• In some years many more hhs may need to buy. What
information helps inform this? Crop forecast & buying forecast?
• A majority of hhs need to increase production, first for home
consumption & to sell. What information helps?
consumption & to sell What information helps?
• Improved on‐farm storage for consumption and possible selling
later seems to have potential – what to do to help with
information on this front?
12. Zikomo Kwambili,
Natotela sana,
L'i tumezi ahulu,
Twalumba kapati,
Thanks to Zambian smallholders, traders,
consumers and to policy makers for
opportunities to obtain/share information and
ideas
14. Maize Productivity Patterns &Trends
Summary
Increases in maize production have come largely from
p g y
area expansion not yield improvements
Maize yield potential not being achieved even in the era of
FSP
large portion of smallholder with declining maize yield over
03/04 to 07/08
By 2007/08 only 35 % of smallholders have become
fertiliser users
Yield improvements among fertiliser users is greatest
Yi ld i f ili i
among smaller land holding categories
Generally, maize yield strongly associated with rainfall
Generally maize yield strongly associated with rainfall
both amount and timing
15. Potential Market:
Urban Food Consumption Patterns
U b F dC ti P tt
Overall the combined importance of meat,
eggs, fish & dairy has surpassed the role of
eggs fish & dairy has surpassed the role of
cereals/staples.
For poorest, cereals still dominate
F t l till d i t
Vegetables important group, especially for
poorest
Poultry & eggs have become very important
& dominate the meats group outside Lusaka
16. Potential Market:
Urban Food Consumption Patterns
Among staples, maize still dominates for lower
income consumers, but wheat has become very
important for all urban consumers.
In Lusaka, wheat products dominate among staples
except for the lowest expenditure groups
Cassava important in Mansa & Kasama, esp. among
low expenditure quintile of consumers
Poultry & eggs have become very important &
dominate the meats group outside Lusaka
