Bitcoin futures? Is All The Pressure On The Downside? A brief summary of the potential risks given current market conditions

1. IS ALL THE INITIAL PRESSURE ON THE
DOWNSIDE?
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Bitcoin Futures?

2. Context
How The Institutions Have Likely Prepared……
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•Academics; VCs
•Exchanges –
contract specs
•Crypto SMEs
•Institutions’ Well Briefed
•Trading Policies Agreed
•Clients Engaged
•Heads Trading Mandated
•New Asset Class
•Ownership
•Volatility!
•Trading Volumes
Institutions Probably Get That:
DLT – Blockchain – Smart Contracts – Decentralised Apps Have Long Term Value
Most Likely Initial Question: Fair Price For Bitcoin Today?
1

3. Bitcoin Futures Client Marketing
Boolean Analysis 
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What Is Client Marketing
Telling The Institutions?
How Do Potential Client Order
Book Volumes Compare With
Crypto Exchanges?
Institutional Policy & Outlook?
NO FOMO*
FOMO
Could Encourage ‘Short
Selling’ (Next Slide 3)
Traditional Trading Income
+ Short Selling?
(Slide 4)
2
*FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out

4. Client Feedback
‘NO FOMO’ + Extended Chart Position = RISK!
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$20K
$15K
$10K
$1K
Volatility = Short Term Opportunity
Institutions & Algos Ready
To Ask Initial Question On
Downside?
Any Sign Weakness Could
Drive Serious ‘Short Selling’
Volumes
20% Movement Limits
Sensible Protection. Bitcoin
‘Commodity’ Opening Limit
Up/Down ‘Manages
Volatility’ But Could Hit
Futures Liquidity &
Encourage Speculation ‘Out
Of Hours’ / ‘Off Exchange’
Heavy Margin Requirements
Probably Not An Issue
3

5. Client Feedback
‘FOMO’ + Extended Chart Position = RISK!
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‘FOMO’
+ Significant Volume
= More Short-Term
Opportunity
Difficult To Ignore An
Extended Chart Position
If Institutional Volumes >>
Yours Then They Control
The Game
Volatility Trading Possible
Subject Daily ‘20%
Exchange Cap’ + Exposed
To Short Selling Risks
Arbitraging Also Possible
But Higher Risk: Can You
Exit On ‘The Other
Exchange’
Question Persists: ‘Fair Price
Of Bitcoin Today?’
Likely ‘FOMO Zone’
Potential ‘NO
FOMO Zone’
$20K
$15K
$10K
$1K
4

6. If Short Term Focus Prevails
Pressure On Futures Contract Downside >> Upside
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•Exchanges – typical
measures protect
against volatility
•However,
opportunities for
speculators remain
across exchanges
•Very Likely See
Bitcoin Futures
‘Limit Up/Down’
•‘Limit Up/Down’ Events =
Short Term Focus To Protect
Client Monies
•Provides Opportunity To
Speculators Who Like ‘Quick
& Easy’
•Short Sell 1st > Volatility 2nd
> Arbitrage 3rd
•‘Fair Price For
Bitcoin
Today?’…..we will
find out very
soon!!
5

7. "How you gather, manage and use information
will determine whether you win or lose.“
Bill Gates

8. Ranjit Sodhi, Co-Founder & CEO
www.TradingStrategist.com
™
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