Des origines à nos jours : tentative de résolution d'un conflit multidimensionnel dans le Caucase du Sud.
Plan :
- Introduction (Caucase du Sud, Haut-Karabakh)
- Origines du conflit
- Déroulement du conflit
- Processus de résolution et médiation
- Lacunes et prolongation du conflit
- Améliorations possibles
- Bibliographie
Travail réalisé par mes soins dans le cadre du Master 2 Sécurité Globale à l'Université de Bordeaux (2020).
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
1. Le conflit du Haut-Karabagh
Des origines à nos jours : tentative de résolution d’un conflit
multidimensionnel dans le Caucase du Sud
Lélie BEAUNE
Master 2 Sécurité globale
Université de Bordeaux - 2020
2. Le Caucase du Sud ou Transcaucasie : au
carrefour de l’Asie et de l’Europe
• 186 100km2 et ~15 millions d’habitants
• Entre la Mer Noire (Ouest) et la Mer Caspienne (Est)
o Zone de transit d’hydrocarbures
• Contacts directs avec la Russie, l’Iran et la Turquie
• Grande diversité ethnique, culturelle et confessionnelle
o « Montagnes des langues »
o Cohabitation millénaire sous domination impériale ottomane, perse et
tsariste
• Intégration à l’URSS en 1921 jusqu’à sa dissolution en 1991
• 3 États reconnus internationalement
o Arménie, Azerbaïdjan, Géorgie
• Instabilité régionale liée à l’existence d’États de facto non-reconnus
par l’ensemble de la Communauté internationale
o Abkhazie, Ossétie du Sud, Haut-Karabagh
3. Le Haut-Karabakh : un État de facto au cœur
d’une crise multidimensionnelle
• Région montagneuse au sud-ouest de l’Azerbaïdjan actuel
• 4 400 km2 et ~147 000 habitants
o 11 500 km2 avec les territoires occupés
• Population arménienne largement majoritaire
• 1991 : autodétermination par référendum
• 2006 : adoption de la première Constitution
• 2017 : adoption du nom « République d’Artsakh »
• Régime parlementaire monocaméral
Non-reconnu par les États de la Communauté internationale
malgré les critères de la Convention de Montevideo
4. Plan de la présentation
• Les origines et causes du conflit
• Le déroulement du conflit (1988-1994)
I. Le Haut-Karabakh : d’un
conflit armé non-international
à un conflit interétatique
• Le processus de médiation officiel
• Le rôle et l’influence de la société civile
II. Le processus de résolution
du conflit à l’œuvre
• Les raisons de la prolongation du conflit
• Les améliorations envisageables
III. La situation de paralysie
actuelle
5. D’un conflit armé non-international à un conflit
interétatique : les origines et causes du conflit
• 1918-1920 : conflit entre l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie pour le contrôle des
provinces de Karabagh, du Nakhitchevan et de Zanguezur
• 1921 : le Bureau caucasien du Comité central du parti communiste bolchevik
décide d’inclure la province du HK dans le territoire administratif de
l’Azerbaïdjan
• 1923 : l’oblast autonome du HK est incorporé à la R.S.S d’Azerbaïdjan
o Stratégie de combine and rule afin de renforcer l’Azerbaïdjan et de ne pas froisser la
Turquie kémaliste
• Politique « d’azérification » des provinces du Karabagh et du Nakhitchevan
o Violences et discriminations à l’encontre de la population arménienne (75% de la population du HK)
• Fin 1980s : perestroïka et glasnost
o Revendications nationalistes dans le Caucase
o Demande de rattachement à la R.S.S. d’Arménie par le Comité du HK refusée
o Manifestations et pétitions en Arménie
• 1991 : indépendances arménienne et azerbaidjanaise
o Référendum sur l’autonomie du HK (boycotté par la minorité azérie)
o = « Oui » majoritaire mais résultats non-reconnus par la communauté internationale
Carte administrative du Caucase
(au sein de l’URSS)
1957-1991
6. D’un conflit armé non-international à un conflit
interétatique : le déroulement du conflit
• Phase 1 : conflit de basse intensité (1988-1991)
• Hostilités de masse (pogroms de Sumgaït, « janvier noir » à Bakou)
• Discours de haine (élites, intellectuels)
• Politiques extrémistes (échanges de populations, opération Anneau)
• Insurrections arméniennes de type guérilla
• Phase 2 : guerre ouverte (1991-1994)
• Déclenchement des opérations militaires par l’Azerbaïdjan
• Dissolution de l’URSS formation de milices et recours à des mercenaires étrangers (guns for
hire)
• Soutien militaire et financier d’Erevan au HK
• Afflux d’armements légaux / illégaux de plus en plus sophistiqués en provenance de Russie
(véhicules de combat, appui aérien, artillerie lourde et légère)
• Échec des initiatives pacifiques (4 résolutions du Conseil de sécurité en 1993)
Soldats
arméniens et
azerbaïdjanais
7. D’un conflit armé non-international à un conflit
interétatique : le déroulement du conflit
• Phase 3 : accord de cessez-le-feu (1994)
• Signé à Moscou entre les dirigeants de l’Arménie, l’Azerbaïdjan et du HK
• Demande de « cessation effective des hostilités » mais pas d’accord de paix
• Occupation par l’armée arménienne de 20% du territoire azerbaïdjanais
• Ligne de contact militarisée et fortifiée (+180 km)
• Refus d’un déploiement d’une OMP russe sur le front karabaghtie (autorégulation)
Combattants
arméniens sur la ligne
de contact (LoC)
8. D’un conflit armé non-international à un conflit
interétatique : le déroulement du conflit
ELÉMENTS CLÉS DU CONFLIT DU HAUT-KARABAKH
Revendications Répertoire d’actions Structure des opportunités
politiques
- Désir d’autodétermination
- Demande de rattachement à
l’Arménie
- Insurrections de type guérilla
- Affrontements violents avec des
armements légers et lourds
- Crimes de guerre
- Affaiblissement de l’autorité
centrale (URSS)
- Ouverture progressive des sociétés
(pérestroïka, glasnost)
- Présence d’alliés influents au
mouvement séparatiste (Arménie,
diaspora)
- Influence des divers mouvements
nationalistes du Caucase
Total : 40 000 morts et plus d’1 million de déplacés internes et réfugiés
9. Résolution du conflit : médiation et processus
de paix officiel
• Le Groupe de Minsk
o Crée par la CSCE (aujourd’hui OSCE)
o Constitué de 11 États membres et co-présidé par la France, la Russie et les Etats-Unis
o Organisation de rencontres pluriannuelles avec les représentants des parties concernées
o Médiateur officiel (formulateur)
• Objectifs principaux :
o fournir un cadre approprié pour la résolution du conflit en assurant le processus de négociation supporté par le Groupe
o obtenir des parties la conclusion d'un accord de cessation des hostilités afin de permettre la convocation de la conférence
o promouvoir le processus de paix par le déploiement d'une force de maintien de la paix internationale sous les auspices de
l'OSCE
• 2007 : les 6 « Principes de Madrid » comme cadre de négociations
Restitution des 7 provinces occupées autour du HK à l’Azerbaïdjan
Création d’un statut intérimaire pour le HK
Création d’un couloir terrestre reliant l’Arménie au HK
Statut définitif obtenu à l’issue d’une consultation respectant la volonté générale
Création d’une mission d’observation internationale de paix
Droit de retour des déplacés internes et réfugiés
10. Résolution du conflit : une peacebuilding
difficile à mettre en œuvre
• Peacebuilding : un cadre de négociation critiqué
o Pas assez efficace (recours à la force armée et à la violence toujours d’actualité)
o Pas assez inclusif (représentants du HK exclus par l’Azerbaïdjan)
o Pas assez contraignant (limites temporelles et sanctions absentes)
o Bases des négociations critiquées par les parties
• Les limites du droit international
o Opposition de deux principes (Droit des peuples à l’autodétermination, Principe
d’intangibilité des frontières)
o Précédent du Kosovo (double standard)
11. Résolution du conflit : le rôle et l’implication
de la société civile
• Peacemaking et diplomatie parallèle
o Incitation au dialogue intercommunautaire afin de réduire les perceptions hostiles
o Rapprochement des points de vue et présentation de solutions originales
o Segmentation de la société civile (femme, jeunes, anciens combattants, réfugiés, déplacés
internes)
Travail de terrain des ONG et think-tanks
o International Alert, Elise Care, EPNK…
o CMI, International Crisis Group…
Diaspora arménienne
o Collaboration entre la diaspora (6 millions) le gouvernement arménien et le HK
o Financements, lobbying, initiatives sur le terrain (éducation, transports, business,
reconnaissance de la souveraineté du HK)
• Problème : marginalisation de la société civile
o Faiblesse des sociétés civiles (manque de moyens financiers et de visibilité, absence de
coordination entre les acteurs locaux)
o Monopolisation du processus de paix par les institutions officielles (opacité, exclusion)
o Montée en puissance des GONGO qui mine l'indépendance du secteur de la société civile et
la crédibilité des projets de consolidation de la paix.
o Interventions de consolidation de la paix inégales et mal coordonnées (progrès fragmentés
et échelonnés)
Répartition de la diaspora
arménienne dans le monde
12. Prolongation du conflit : une volonté politique
absente et des discours belligènes
• Enjeux de politique intérieure
o Intérêt électoral et légitimation politique (ARM, AZER)
o Étatisation par le bas (HK)
o = Primauté du court terme sur le long terme
• Enjeux identitaires
o Traumatisme historique (génocide 1915, pogroms anti-arméniens, pertes
territoriales en Turquie après la 1GM)
o Historicisation et ethnicisation du conflit (mythe de l’ennemi historique,
cohabitation ancestrale gommée)
o Discours nationalistes, propos haineux (propagande, guerre de
l’information)
• Enjeu sécuritaire
o Dilemme de sécurité (insécurité mutuelle, paix négative)
Course à l’armement (budgets militaires croissants : missiles balistiques,
systèmes de défenses anti-missiles)
o Discours de sécuritisation (question de la survie, mentalité de siège,
guerre perçue comme étant inévitable)
Discrédit de l’idéologie et du financement pour la construction de la paix
Un cessez-le-feu non respecté de part l’absence de volonté de
compromis (demandes maximalistes)
Maintien du statu quo
Source : SIPRI
2016
Source :
International
Crisis Group 2020
13. Prolongation du conflit : un environnement
international peu favorable
• Indifférence de la communauté internationale
o Importance secondaire par rapport à d’autres zones (Moyen-
Orient, Mer de Chine méridionale, Afrique sub-saharienne)
o Echec des résolutions du Conseil de sécurité
o Diminution des financements (étasuniens notamment)
• Dissonance entre les acteurs étrangers
o Rôle ambigu de la Russie, à la fois médiateur et fournisseur
d’armes aux belligérants (« sphère d’influence historique »)
o Intérêts stratégiques divergents (transit gazier) entre UE et
Russie
o Régionalisation du conflit (Turquie, Iran)
Source : Inform Napalm (International
Volunteer Community)
https://informnapalm.org/fr/haut-
karabakh-donbass-paralleles-entre-deux-
processus-de-paix-regis-accords-de-minsk/
14. Prolongation du conflit : les améliorations
envisageables
• Assurer un cessez-le-feu stable grâce à une OMP internationale (peacekeeping)
• Modifier le cadre de négociation
o Révision des Principes de Madrid
o Besoin in fine que les co-présidents cosignent l’accord de paix négocié
• Intégrer de nouveaux acteurs au processus de négociation
o L’UE via son représentant spécial pour le Caucase
o Les représentants karabaghties
• Faciliter l’intervention et le travail des ONG
o Davantage de moyens financiers, matériels et techniques
o Transparence et échanges avec les structures gouvernementales
• Proposer davantage de mesures de confiance (CBMs)
o Explicitement liées aux pourparlers, en terrain neutre
o Inclusion des acteurs non-gouvernementaux dans cette tache
o Dépolitiser certaines CBMs
• Accroitre la réconciliation
o Surmonter la méfiance mutuelle et l’image de l’ennemi
o Combattre l’historicisation et l’ethnicisation du conflit
o Identifier les domaines de collaboration possibles
• Inclure des aspects de développement économique mutuel, d'échanges interculturels et de compréhension sociopolitique (long
terme)
15. Bibliographie (1)
Expertise
Entreprise Défense Relations Internationales (EDRI), « Haut-Karabakh : vers une résolution du conflit ? », janvier 2020 https://www.enderi.fr/Haut-Karabakh-vers-une-resolution-du-
conflit-1-2_a596.html ; https://www.enderi.fr/Haut-Karabakh-vers-une-resolution-du-conflit-2-2_a597.html
ETH Zurich, « Haut-Karabagh : obstacle à une solution négociée », Politique de sécurité: analyses du CSS, n°131, avril 2013, consulté le 5 mai 2020
Fondation Méditerranéenne d’Études Stratégiques, « Le Haut-Karabagh, un « conflit gelé » oublié », janvier 2019 http://fmes-france.org/tag/groupe-de-minsk/
GRIP, « L’équilibre des forces au Haut-Karabagh : Frictions, dissuasion et risque de déflagration », 2016, consulté le 2 avril 2020
ttps://www.grip.org/sites/grip.org/files/RAPPORTS/2016/Rapport_2016-7.pdf
International Crisis Group, « Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict », page d’accueil https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict
International Crisis Group, “Digging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh”, décembre 2019 https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-
conflict/255-digging-out-deadlock-nagorno-karabakh
IRIS, Le conflit du Haut-Karabakh entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan risque-t-il de dégénérer ?, juin 2017, consulté le 29/03/2020 https://www.iris-france.org/96565-le-conflit-du-haut-
karabakh-entre-larmenie-et-lazerbaidjan-risque-t-il-de-degenerer/
ONG et société civile
International Alert, “Nagorny Karabakh conflict” https://www.international-alert.org/fr/what_we_do/where_we_work/nagorny-karabakh-conflict
CMI Peace Broker, “South Caucasus”, http://cmi.fi/our-work/regions-and-themes/#eurasia:south-caucasus
France-Artsakh, 15 questions et 15 réponses sur la République d’Artsakh https://www.france-artsakh.fr/faq-artsakh/
16. Bibliographie (2)
Articles scientifiques
• Dumont, Gérard-François. « Haut-Karabagh : Géopolitique d’un conflit sans fin », Géostratégiques, 2013, pp.35-74.
• Gasimov, Dilaver D. « Le conflit arméno-azerbaïdjanais : l'impuissance ou l'indifférence de la communauté internationale ? », Guerres mondiales et conflits contemporains, vol. 240, no. 4, 2010, pp. 101-111.
• Heseynova, Sevil. « L’Histoire oubliée » de la fin de l’URSS : Coopération interethnique lors du conflit du Haut-Karabagh », Revue d’études comparatives Est-Ouest, vol. 44, n° 1, 2013, pp. 15-44.
• Jolicoeur, Pierre et Campana, Aurélie. « Introduction : « Conflits gelés » de l’ex-URSS : débats théoriques et politiques. » Études internationales, volume 40, numéro 4, décembre 2009, p. 501–521.
• Mikhelidze, Nona and Pirozzi, Nicoletta. “Civil Society and Conflict Transformation in Abkhazia, Israel/Palestine, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and Western Sahara”. MICROCON Policy Working Paper No. 3., November 26
2008.
• Petithomme, Mathieu. « Étatisation et nationalisation du territoire contesté de la République du Haut-Karabagh Vivre et évoluer sans reconnaissance internationale », Revue d’études comparatives Est-Ouest, vol. 42, no. 4,
2011, pp. 83-106.
• Petithomme, Mathieu. « L'État de facto du Haut-Karabagh arménien. Entre démocratisation en trompe-l'œil et ethnicisation », Revue internationale et stratégique, vol. 89, no. 1, 2013, pp. 30-39.
• Rasizade, Alec. « L’imbroglio du Karabakh : une perspective azérie. (Traduit de l’anglais) », Les Cahiers de l'Orient, vol. 101, no. 1, 2011, pp. 83-96.
• Tranca, Oana. « Nagorno-Karabakh : le parcours vers un conflit gelé ». Études internationales, 40 (4), 2009, pp.523–543.
Ouvrages
Hille, Charlotte, « Les tentatives européennes de pacification du Caucase : ambitions et contradictions », L’Union européenne et la paix, Presses de SciencesPo, Chapitre 9, pp.203-221.
Mahé, Annie et Jean-Pierre, Histoire de l’Arménie des origines à nos jours, Éditions Perrin, 2012.
Minassian, Gaïdz, Zones grises : Quand les États perdent le contrôle, CNRS Éditions, Biblis, Paris, 2018.
Waal, Thomas de, The Caucasus : an introduction. Second edition, New York : Oxford University Press, 2019.