1) Inflation remains high and risks of second-round effects on wages and de-anchoring of inflation expectations persist. Monetary policy will need to go beyond neutral rates and hikes will become more cautious to return inflation to 2% in the medium term.
2) Industrial production figures hide disruption in energy-intensive industries, whose outlook remains weak. Inflation has increased broadly across countries due to high energy and food prices, and core inflation is also picking up.
3) Recession risks are rising as geopolitical uncertainty and the war in Ukraine push the euro area closer to contraction in 2023, according to ECB projections. Monetary policy normalization will continue in steps to withdraw accommodation.
The Wind of Change: Economic and Financial OutlookLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Mārtiņš Kazāks during discussion on Latvia's economic developments in Brussels.
The global economy is growing slowly with diverging growth rates between countries. Financial risks are increasing and volatility is likely to rise. Potential growth has declined as weak demand interacts with slowing growth rates. The euro area economy remains weak, a major concern. Coordinated monetary, fiscal and structural policies will need to be deployed to mitigate risks and boost growth.
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Growth has-peaked-amidst-escalating-risks-economic-outlook-presentation-11-2018OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Outlook report projects that global economic growth is slowing as risks are mounting. World GDP growth is projected to decline from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in both 2019 and 2020. Risks include escalating trade tensions, weaker investor sentiment towards emerging markets, and a potential slowdown in China that could negatively impact the global economy. The report calls for enhanced international cooperation to help prepare for more difficult economic times.
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
1) Inflation remains high and risks of second-round effects on wages and de-anchoring of inflation expectations persist. Monetary policy will need to go beyond neutral rates and hikes will become more cautious to return inflation to 2% in the medium term.
2) Industrial production figures hide disruption in energy-intensive industries, whose outlook remains weak. Inflation has increased broadly across countries due to high energy and food prices, and core inflation is also picking up.
3) Recession risks are rising as geopolitical uncertainty and the war in Ukraine push the euro area closer to contraction in 2023, according to ECB projections. Monetary policy normalization will continue in steps to withdraw accommodation.
The Wind of Change: Economic and Financial OutlookLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Mārtiņš Kazāks during discussion on Latvia's economic developments in Brussels.
The global economy is growing slowly with diverging growth rates between countries. Financial risks are increasing and volatility is likely to rise. Potential growth has declined as weak demand interacts with slowing growth rates. The euro area economy remains weak, a major concern. Coordinated monetary, fiscal and structural policies will need to be deployed to mitigate risks and boost growth.
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Growth has-peaked-amidst-escalating-risks-economic-outlook-presentation-11-2018OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Outlook report projects that global economic growth is slowing as risks are mounting. World GDP growth is projected to decline from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in both 2019 and 2020. Risks include escalating trade tensions, weaker investor sentiment towards emerging markets, and a potential slowdown in China that could negatively impact the global economy. The report calls for enhanced international cooperation to help prepare for more difficult economic times.
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook Spring 2018Eesti Pank
This document discusses economic trends and policy priorities in advanced and emerging Europe. It finds that while growth has been strong, leading indicators point to a peak. Inflation pressures are diverging, with sluggish wage growth in most advanced Europe but stronger growth in new EU member states. Near-term risks are balanced, but medium-term risks are to the downside. It recommends that advanced Europe use favorable economic conditions to rebuild fiscal buffers and enact structural reforms, while emerging Europe should focus on fiscal sustainability and improving institutions and business environments.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2019 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-sovereign-borrowing-outlook-23060476.htm
Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014 Mārtiņš Pakulis
A presentation by Mārtiņš Kazāks about «Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014.»
Presented on 27th March, 2013 in Riga Business School.
Global economic growth is projected to remain low in 2016 and 2017, with flat growth in advanced economies and slower growth in many emerging markets. Key risks include Brexit, financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets, and increased financial market volatility. Low growth is trapping economies in weak conditions characterized by subdued investment, trade, employment, wages and productivity. This broken growth pattern fails to deliver promised prosperity to youth and investors. The OECD recommends comprehensive, coordinated policy action across countries involving quality public investment, structural reforms tailored to each country, and reducing the burden on monetary policy to put economies on a stronger, more equitable growth path.
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessTCI Network
Cambodia experienced robust economic growth over the past two decades thanks to sound macroeconomic policies that attracted investment. However, total factor productivity has moderated and competitiveness has eroded as wages have risen. While investment continues to support growth, employment growth has slowed as the agriculture sector sheds jobs. The economy contracted in 2020 due to the pandemic but is projected to recover in 2021, though sustaining growth will require improving competitiveness through diversification.
Darba tirgus izaicinājumi Latvijā un Eiropas Savienībā: no pandēmijas līdz kr...Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latvia's labor market. It finds that while unemployment increased during the pandemic, government support programs prevented larger job losses. Unemployment has since declined and is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Younger workers and those in sectors like hospitality were most affected by pandemic layoffs. The invasion of Ukraine has worsened economic forecasts for Latvia in 2022 and exacerbated pre-existing labor market challenges around demographic changes and skills shortages.
Latvijas Banka has revised Latvia's macroeconomic forecasts for 2023-2025. Inflation is projected to decline to 10% in 2023 and further to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. GDP growth is forecast to be 0.5% in 2023, then increase to 3.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Unemployment is projected to remain stable around 7.3-7.4% through 2025. The general government deficit is expected to decline from 4% of GDP in 2023 to around 2.7-1.5% of GDP in 2024-2025.
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Presentation to jelf employee benefits seminar 13 july 2015Mark Beatson
The UK economy is expected to see sustained but modest growth over the next five years, with further employment increases and some tightening in the labour market. However, real wage growth is unlikely unless productivity recovers from its below-pre-recession levels. Additional fiscal consolidation is anticipated in the public sector, while employment growth will be concentrated among workers over 50. Demand will be strongest for high-skilled jobs, but questions remain about the UK's skills supply matching these requirements.
The OECD interim global economic assessment provides the following key points:
- Global growth prospects have improved slightly compared to previous forecasts due to stronger data, lower oil prices, and monetary easing.
- However, risks remain from inconsistent inflation and interest rates, rapid moves in asset prices, and lagging investment and employment.
- Policymakers need balanced policy packages including stable fiscal policies, reinvigorated structural reforms, and reduced reliance on monetary policy.
This document summarizes a presentation on macroeconomic trends, shocks, and prudent levels of government debt. It discusses how long-term projections are used to examine issues like technological change, demographics, and fiscal sustainability over decades. It notes that world growth is projected to slow while emerging economies like India and China increase their share of global output. For OECD countries, aging populations will weigh on growth in living standards. The document outlines a simulation-based approach to determining prudent debt targets for individual countries that account for shocks and ensure debt levels remain below established thresholds. Prudent debt targets and required fiscal efforts to meet them through 2040 are presented for various countries.
Bladex's presentation outlines its positioning for growth opportunities in a post-Covid environment. Key points include:
1) Bladex has a differentiated balance sheet structure and the Latin American region is showing recovery, uniquely positioning Bladex to leverage new business opportunities.
2) Global and Latin American economic indicators show an optimistic outlook for 2021, with commodity prices and trade expected to support regional growth.
3) Bladex has enhanced its product offerings to address specific client needs through longer tenors, guarantee structures, and supply chain financing partnerships.
4) Internally, Bladex has undertaken strategic planning coordination to effectively align the bank for future opportunities in trade finance and corporate banking.
- Financial markets have absorbed some of the monetary policy tightening to date due to starting from an accommodative point and factors like a weaker sterling.
- When inflation expectations become more backward-looking, inflation becomes more persistent and output losses more extreme. Monetary policy also becomes less effective at bringing inflation back to target.
- For monetary policy to be effective at stabilizing the economy and achieving its 2% inflation target, it may need to remain tight for an extended period. Not remaining sufficiently tight risks high inflation and lower economic activity as tighter policy would have to be maintained for longer in the future.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine how a risk-on environment in equities did not translate to fixed income, keeping interest rates subdued.
1) The document analyzes the Italian NPL market and servicing industry, providing forecasts for 2021-2022. It finds that government support measures, the Next Generation EU plan, the duration of the pandemic and vaccination rollout will impact the economic scenario.
2) The stock of bank bad loans is expected to increase significantly over 2021-2022, with new flows of around €80 billion. The corporate sector will lead the rise in default rates.
3) The NPE ratio for banks is forecasted to reach 7.8% in 2022, bringing the stock of gross NPLs back to growth levels, though still below peaks seen in earlier crises. Transaction volumes in the NPL market are also expected
This document summarizes a presentation by Gita Gopinath at the Banco Central do Brasil on tackling high inflation in emerging markets. It discusses how emerging markets have fared relatively well in the current tightening cycle due to earlier monetary policy tightening. However, inflation has proven persistent, arguing for maintaining tight monetary policy. The document also examines how monetary policy should respond to potential financial stresses and the role of fiscal policy in fighting inflation.
Short-term momentum: will it be sustained? OECD Economic Outlook presentation...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD interim economic report provides the following key points:
1) The short-term global economic momentum has become more broad-based across major economies due to improvements in the euro area and synchronised growth across countries.
2) However, strong and sustained medium-term growth is not assured as private investment remains weak and inflation and wage growth are still subdued.
3) Policymakers must pursue fiscal and structural reforms to rebalance support for inclusive growth through better tax and spending policies while managing financial risks.
IMF Regional Economic Outlook Spring 2018Eesti Pank
This document discusses economic trends and policy priorities in advanced and emerging Europe. It finds that while growth has been strong, leading indicators point to a peak. Inflation pressures are diverging, with sluggish wage growth in most advanced Europe but stronger growth in new EU member states. Near-term risks are balanced, but medium-term risks are to the downside. It recommends that advanced Europe use favorable economic conditions to rebuild fiscal buffers and enact structural reforms, while emerging Europe should focus on fiscal sustainability and improving institutions and business environments.
This presentation provides key findings from the 2019 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecd-sovereign-borrowing-outlook-23060476.htm
Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014 Mārtiņš Pakulis
A presentation by Mārtiņš Kazāks about «Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014.»
Presented on 27th March, 2013 in Riga Business School.
Global economic growth is projected to remain low in 2016 and 2017, with flat growth in advanced economies and slower growth in many emerging markets. Key risks include Brexit, financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets, and increased financial market volatility. Low growth is trapping economies in weak conditions characterized by subdued investment, trade, employment, wages and productivity. This broken growth pattern fails to deliver promised prosperity to youth and investors. The OECD recommends comprehensive, coordinated policy action across countries involving quality public investment, structural reforms tailored to each country, and reducing the burden on monetary policy to put economies on a stronger, more equitable growth path.
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessTCI Network
Cambodia experienced robust economic growth over the past two decades thanks to sound macroeconomic policies that attracted investment. However, total factor productivity has moderated and competitiveness has eroded as wages have risen. While investment continues to support growth, employment growth has slowed as the agriculture sector sheds jobs. The economy contracted in 2020 due to the pandemic but is projected to recover in 2021, though sustaining growth will require improving competitiveness through diversification.
Darba tirgus izaicinājumi Latvijā un Eiropas Savienībā: no pandēmijas līdz kr...Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latvia's labor market. It finds that while unemployment increased during the pandemic, government support programs prevented larger job losses. Unemployment has since declined and is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Younger workers and those in sectors like hospitality were most affected by pandemic layoffs. The invasion of Ukraine has worsened economic forecasts for Latvia in 2022 and exacerbated pre-existing labor market challenges around demographic changes and skills shortages.
Latvijas Banka has revised Latvia's macroeconomic forecasts for 2023-2025. Inflation is projected to decline to 10% in 2023 and further to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. GDP growth is forecast to be 0.5% in 2023, then increase to 3.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Unemployment is projected to remain stable around 7.3-7.4% through 2025. The general government deficit is expected to decline from 4% of GDP in 2023 to around 2.7-1.5% of GDP in 2024-2025.
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Presentation to jelf employee benefits seminar 13 july 2015Mark Beatson
The UK economy is expected to see sustained but modest growth over the next five years, with further employment increases and some tightening in the labour market. However, real wage growth is unlikely unless productivity recovers from its below-pre-recession levels. Additional fiscal consolidation is anticipated in the public sector, while employment growth will be concentrated among workers over 50. Demand will be strongest for high-skilled jobs, but questions remain about the UK's skills supply matching these requirements.
The OECD interim global economic assessment provides the following key points:
- Global growth prospects have improved slightly compared to previous forecasts due to stronger data, lower oil prices, and monetary easing.
- However, risks remain from inconsistent inflation and interest rates, rapid moves in asset prices, and lagging investment and employment.
- Policymakers need balanced policy packages including stable fiscal policies, reinvigorated structural reforms, and reduced reliance on monetary policy.
This document summarizes a presentation on macroeconomic trends, shocks, and prudent levels of government debt. It discusses how long-term projections are used to examine issues like technological change, demographics, and fiscal sustainability over decades. It notes that world growth is projected to slow while emerging economies like India and China increase their share of global output. For OECD countries, aging populations will weigh on growth in living standards. The document outlines a simulation-based approach to determining prudent debt targets for individual countries that account for shocks and ensure debt levels remain below established thresholds. Prudent debt targets and required fiscal efforts to meet them through 2040 are presented for various countries.
Bladex's presentation outlines its positioning for growth opportunities in a post-Covid environment. Key points include:
1) Bladex has a differentiated balance sheet structure and the Latin American region is showing recovery, uniquely positioning Bladex to leverage new business opportunities.
2) Global and Latin American economic indicators show an optimistic outlook for 2021, with commodity prices and trade expected to support regional growth.
3) Bladex has enhanced its product offerings to address specific client needs through longer tenors, guarantee structures, and supply chain financing partnerships.
4) Internally, Bladex has undertaken strategic planning coordination to effectively align the bank for future opportunities in trade finance and corporate banking.
- Financial markets have absorbed some of the monetary policy tightening to date due to starting from an accommodative point and factors like a weaker sterling.
- When inflation expectations become more backward-looking, inflation becomes more persistent and output losses more extreme. Monetary policy also becomes less effective at bringing inflation back to target.
- For monetary policy to be effective at stabilizing the economy and achieving its 2% inflation target, it may need to remain tight for an extended period. Not remaining sufficiently tight risks high inflation and lower economic activity as tighter policy would have to be maintained for longer in the future.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine how a risk-on environment in equities did not translate to fixed income, keeping interest rates subdued.
1) The document analyzes the Italian NPL market and servicing industry, providing forecasts for 2021-2022. It finds that government support measures, the Next Generation EU plan, the duration of the pandemic and vaccination rollout will impact the economic scenario.
2) The stock of bank bad loans is expected to increase significantly over 2021-2022, with new flows of around €80 billion. The corporate sector will lead the rise in default rates.
3) The NPE ratio for banks is forecasted to reach 7.8% in 2022, bringing the stock of gross NPLs back to growth levels, though still below peaks seen in earlier crises. Transaction volumes in the NPL market are also expected
This document summarizes a presentation by Gita Gopinath at the Banco Central do Brasil on tackling high inflation in emerging markets. It discusses how emerging markets have fared relatively well in the current tightening cycle due to earlier monetary policy tightening. However, inflation has proven persistent, arguing for maintaining tight monetary policy. The document also examines how monetary policy should respond to potential financial stresses and the role of fiscal policy in fighting inflation.
Short-term momentum: will it be sustained? OECD Economic Outlook presentation...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD interim economic report provides the following key points:
1) The short-term global economic momentum has become more broad-based across major economies due to improvements in the euro area and synchronised growth across countries.
2) However, strong and sustained medium-term growth is not assured as private investment remains weak and inflation and wage growth are still subdued.
3) Policymakers must pursue fiscal and structural reforms to rebalance support for inclusive growth through better tax and spending policies while managing financial risks.
Human capital as the key to economic developmentLatvijas Banka
This document discusses human capital as the key driver of economic development in Latvia. It finds that while Latvia's population and workforce are projected to decrease in the coming decades, there are still substantial internal labor reserves that could be activated, such as among the young and upper-middle aged men. Improving health outcomes and reducing excess mortality is identified as the most promising way to stop depopulation trends. Additionally, public spending on education and healthcare in Latvia has been modest and outcomes could be improved by increasing efficiency. Attracting high-skilled immigration through improved quality of life is also discussed but perceived livability in Riga does not yet lead to mass immigration.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Septembris 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 29. septembrī par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
Latvijas Bankas Finanšu pratības daļas vadītājas Aijas Brikšes prezentācija Rīgas Izglītības un informatīvi metodiskā centra seminārā skolotājiem "Drošs internets un droša digitālā finanšu pratība" 2023. gada 29. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Baibas Brusbārdes prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Monetārās politikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Anetes Kravinskas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenā ekonomistes Dainas Paulas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Marts 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 31. martā par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
Eiro banknošu pretviltošanas elementi un to pārbaudeLatvijas Banka
Šī Latvijas Bankas naudas zīmju ekspertu prezentācija iepazīstina ar eiro banknošu pretviltošanas elementiem un veidiem kā ikviens var pārlecināties par banknošu īstumu. Vienkāršākais veids - aptaustiet, apskatiet un pagroziet banknotes!
Kā atpazīt ar pretzagšanas ierīcēm bojātas banknotesLatvijas Banka
Latvijas Banka nemaina un neatgriež ar drošības tinti iekrāsotas banknotes, jo tās varētu būt iegūtas noziedzīgā ceļā. Izņēmums ir gadījumi, kad naudas zīmes iesniedz īpašnieks vai tā pilnvarotā persona, kurš ir cietusī persona saistībā ar noziedzīgu darbību vai tās mēģinājumu, kas izraisījusi banknošu bojājumus.
Kā atpazīt šādi bojātas banknotes?
Vairāk informācijas par šādi bojātām banknotēm: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/ink-stained/html/index.lv.html
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
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1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Understanding how timely GST payments influence a lender's decision to approve loans, this topic explores the correlation between GST compliance and creditworthiness. It highlights how consistent GST payments can enhance a business's financial credibility, potentially leading to higher chances of loan approval.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
2. Labour markets remain tight across most dimensions; upside
risks to wage growth.
Main
takeaways
Profit margins remain strong, implying robust demand.
Headline inflation is falling, core remains stubbornly high; strong
labour markets and profit margins may strengthen persistence;
risks of inflation de-anchoring remain.
The economy more resilient than it was forecasted late last year;
recession avoided so far; some rebound in growth in the short term.
Some tightening of financial conditions, generally in line with
monetary tightening; no signs of disorderly developments so far.
Monetary policy: uncertainty remains high, policy lags uncertain; yet,
further rate hikes necessary to bring inflation to the target in a timely
manner (by end 2024?); rates to remain elevated at sufficiently
restrictive levels; balance sheet reduction to be cautious, but persistent.
3. Bloomberg 1-year ahead recession probability index (in %) and changes in probability since November, 2022 (% and % points)
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
01/13
01/14
01/15
01/16
01/17
01/18
01/19
01/20
01/21
01/22
01/23
EA US UK
EA US UK
80
60
80
45
65 65
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
EA USA UK
Change since
Nov-22
Recession
probability in
Nov-22
Recession
probability, latest
(April, 2023)
3 Source: Bloomberg, Latvijas Banka staff calculations.
Economy more resilient than it was forecasted late last year:
recession fears have retreated
4. EA PMI (balance of answers)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
05/21 08/21 11/21 02/22 05/22 08/22 11/22 02/23
Composite Manufacturing Services
EA GDP (%; q-o-q), Eurocoin (%; m-o-m) and
sentiment (point) indicators
4 Sources: S&P Global, Eurostat, EC, ECB, Eurocoin and Latvijas Banka's calculations.
Economy more resilient than it was forecasted late last year:
growth expected to rebound, albeit moderately
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
02/22 06/22 10/22 02/23 06/23 10/23 02/24
GDP Mar MPE Dec BMPE
Eurocoin Composite PMI (rhs) ESI/2 (rhs)
5. Labor market indicators (normalized)
Unemployment rate (inv.)
Underemployment rate (inv.)
Youth employment rate (inv.)
Share long-term unemployment (inv.)
Short-term unemployment rate (three months)
(inv.)
Job separation rate (inv.)
Job finding rate
Job vacancy rate
Factors limiting production, shortage of labour
Employment (growth)
EEI (replace PMI on employment)
Compensation per hour (growth)
Labour productivity per hour (growth)
Average hours worked (growth)
Employment -population ratio (prime-age)
Labour force participation
2011-2015
2019
2022
Latest
5
Sources: Eurostat, EC and Latvijas Banka calculations.
Note: Based on ECB (2019). Momentum calculated as Principal component of the labor market indicators in radar chart, Q1 2010 – Q4 2022.
Labor market remains tight across most segments
6. Relationship between unemployment and wage
growth in EA, 1Q2012 - 4Q2022
Compensation per employee in EA countries
(annual % change)
6 Sources: Eurostat and Latvijas Banka's calculations.
Philips curve waking up?
Tight labour market and high inflation fuell wage demands
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Q1
2018
Q1
2019
Q1
2020
Q1
2021
Q1
2022
EA GER FRA
ESP ITA NED
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Compensation
per
employee
(annual
%
change)
Unemployment rate (%)
Q1 2012-Q1 2021
Q3 2021-Q4 2022
7. Headline, core and energy inflation (%) and changes since November, 2022 (% points)
-15
0
15
30
45
60
-5
0
5
10
15
20
01/08 10/09 07/11 04/13 01/15 10/16 07/18 04/20 01/22
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Energy (rhs)
7 Source: Eurostat.
Energy prices have dropped, pulling down headline inflation;
core remains stubbornly high
7
5.6
2.5
-3.1
0.6
-32.4
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Headline inflation Core inflation Energy
Annual rate, April 2023
Changes from November
9. Gross profit margin of NFCs in EA
(% of value added)
25
30
35
40
45
50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Euro area Germany Spain
France Italy
Profit share of value added (nominal gross
operating surplus / nominal value added)
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
2013 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022
All activities
Construction
Industry (except construction)
Retail, transport, accommodation and food services
Sources: Eurostat and Latvijas Banka's calculations.
Latest data: Q4 2022.
Notes: when calculating profit share, taxes are not subtracted from profit due to lack of data. Actual profit share is lower.
Profit margins remain strong: firms able to pass through their
cost increases (and more?)
9
10. Outstanding MFIs’ loans in the Euro Area: stocks
(tn €) and growth rates (y-o-y %) by sector
Easing of credit standards by sector
(net % of reporting banks)
10 Source: ECB’s Statistical Data Warehouse, ECB`s Bank Lending Survey.
Credit growth is slowing, credit standarts become tighter
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
5
10
15
20
01/19 07/19 01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/22 07/22 01/23
Stocks, households
Stocks, non-financial corporations
Growth rate, non-financial corporations (right)
Growth rate, households (right)
Growth rate, total (right)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
2019
Q3 Q1
2020
Q3 Q1
2021
Q3 Q1
2022
Q3 Q1
2023
Observed, non-financial corporations Observed, households (housing)
Forecasted, non-financial corporations Forecasted, households (housing)
Easing
Tightening
11. Factors determining tightening of credit standards for loans to enterprises (net % of reporting banks)
11 Source: ECB’s Bank lending survey.
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Capital position
Access to market financing
Liquidity position
Competition from other banks
Competition from non-banks
Competition from market financing
General economic situation and outlook
Industry or firm-specific situation and outlook
Risk related to the collateral demanded
Bank's risk tolerance
Q1, 22 Q2, 22 Q3, 22 Q4, 22 Q1, 23
Credit growth is slowing, limited spillovers from the US
12. Euro zone banks' bond yields spread versus 5Y
OIS swap rates (basis points)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
01.2020 07.2020 01.2021 07.2021 01.2022 07.2022 01.2023
iBoxx EUR Collateralized Index iBoxx EUR Banks Subordinated
iBoxx EUR Banks Senior Preferred iBoxx EUR Banks Senior Bail-in
European and US banks stock price indexes
(01.01.2020. =100)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
01.2020 07.2020 01.2021 07.2021 01.2022 07.2022 01.2023
EURO STOXX BANKS S&P 500 BANKS
12 Source: Refinitiv; Bloomberg, Latvijas Banka staff calculations.
Financial stability risks so far contained: no extra tightening
13. 10Y government bond nominal yields (%) Government bond real yields* (%)
13
*Calculated as difference between GDP weighted nominal yield and corresponding euro area inflation swap rate.
Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, ECB.
Government bond yields rise along with policy rates;
back into positive territory
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2020 2021 2022 2023
Euro zone 2Y US 2Y Euro zone 10Y US 10Y
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/22 07/22 01/23
IT PT ES FR NL DE
14. 14 Source: Bloomberg, ECB SPF.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Q3
2004
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2015
Q3
2016
Q1
2018
Q3
2019
Q1
2021
Q3
2022
EA 5y5y US 5y5y EA 1y1y ECB target
Market-based measure of inflation expectations Longer-term (2027) SPF inflation expectations (%)
Long-term inflation expectations: anchored, but risks remain
o o o o o o o o o o
15. 15
Terminal rate
expectations at higher
level compared to end
of 2022, but still lower
than pre-SVB
With policy rates into restrictive territory,
smaller rate hikes appropriate;
transmission lags uncertain.
Policy decisions data-dependent: smaller
size of rate hikes does not necessarily
imply the near end of the tightening cycle.
Does the speed of travel matter or is it
only the total distance that matters?
Balance sheet reduction: alingning all
instruments and re-creating policy space.
16. Overnight money market and policy rates (%)
16 Source: ECB, LB estimates
With policy rates likely in restrictive territory,
smaller size of rate hikes is appropriate
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
01/20 07/20 01/21 07/21 01/22 07/22 01/23
Range of most plausible estimates of i* €STR Deposit facility rate
17. 17 Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv.
Monetary policy:
further rate increases
and balance sheet
reduction to follow
Current profile hard to square
with current inflation outlook.
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ESTR forward curve (% per annum)
ESTR forward curve, pre-SVB collapse (2023-03-09)
ESTR forward curve, pre-march GovC (2023-03-15)
ESTR forward curve, latest (2023-05-09)
ESTR
18. 18
Risk management: minimize the worst-case scenario
Current balance in favour of resolute action to combat inflation forces
Risks of
doing too
much
Risks of
doing too
little
• Too low ex-ante real rates due
to persistent inflation surprises;
• Potential de-anchoring of
inflation expectations;
• Higher terminal rates, as policy
needs to correct for past
under-shooting;
• Interest rate volatility diluting
the impact of monetary policy
signal;
• Potential for a boom-bust cycle
in the economy;
• Potentially deeper recession
than in the case of gradual
interest rate adjustment.
• Policy overshooting leading to
renewed recession and deflation
risks over the medium term;
• Faster pace of interest rate hikes
may amplify credit slowdown,
lead to credit crunch and
financial stability concerns;
• Public debts sustainability
concerns rising (at least in some
jurisdictions);
• In case of a potentially quick
reversal of policy stance,
interest rate volatility may
increase;
• Risks of credibility weakening if
rate reversal perceived as a
policy mistake.
20. 20
Unemployment rate vs structural budget
balance in euro area, 2015-2025
*Projections
Source: European Commission, ECB.
Monetary policy not
the only game in town.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023*
2024*
2025*
Structural budget deficit (% of GDP) - LHS
Unemployment rate (%) - RHS
Fiscal support must be timely,
temporary, and targeted not to add
to inflation risks.
The materialization of these risks will
call for a stronger monetary policy
response.