Get a jump on traffic surges with Predictive Auto Scaling. AWS Auto Scaling now responds more quickly by analyzing past traffic trends. The new predictive capability looks at your incoming load and forecasts it into the future. Not only can you see ahead of time when and how your resources will scale, your resources are made available ahead of when they are needed to enable faster, more responsive applications. Come learn how Genesys uses Predictive Scaling to scale the infrastructure used to run their popular contact center solution, PureCloud, worldwide.

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Predictive Scaling for More
Responsive Applications
Prasad Sristi
Principal Product Manager
Amazon Web Services
A P I 3 3 0
Kal Patel
Principal Architect
Genesys PureCloud

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Auto Scaling overview
Auto Scaling simplifies capacity
provisioning through automation
Spot Fleet Request

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Auto Scaling overview
Amazon EC2
Auto Scaling
AWS
Auto Scaling
Application
Auto Scaling

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Scaling EC2 resources
Manual scaling Dynamic scalingScheduled scaling

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Introducing predictive scaling
Manual scaling Dynamic scalingScheduled scaling Predictive scaling
New!

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Prediction = better planning
Weather Traffic Time Electricity Water

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Why predictive scaling?
40% traffic
is cyclical
Temporary
external outages
Applications with
long warm-up times

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Predictive Scaling with Amazon EC2 Auto Scaling

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Benefits of predictive scaling: Use case #1
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000

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Traffic forecast with predictive scaling
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Series1 Series2

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Capacity forecast
0
50
100
150
200
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Series1 Series2 Series3

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Responsiveness during a spike
-10
40
90
140
190
240
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Series1 Series2 Series3

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Benefits of predictive scaling: Use case #2
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Series1 Series2

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Capacity forecast with predictive scaling
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Series1 Series2 Series3

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Response during an untimely dip
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Series1 Series2 Series3

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Benefits of predictive scaling: Use case #3
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Series1 Series2

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Configuring predictive scaling
Load metric: Scaling metric:

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Configuring predictive scaling…cont’d

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Predictive scaling in Amazon EC2 Auto Scaling
Machine learning technology behind the scenes
Machine
learning model
Billions of data points
from Amazon.com
Load metric
and forecasts
next two days based on
the pre-trained model
Performs
regression analysis
between load metric
and scaling metric
Schedules
scaling actions
for the next
two days, hourly
Repeats
every day
Capacity provisioning on-premises Capacity provisioning with dynamic scaling Capacity provisioning with predictive scaling and
dynamic scaling
Time
Load/Capacity
Time
Load/Capacity
Time
Load/Capacity
Provisioned capacity Actual capacity demand

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Predictive scaling with target tracking
• With target tracking
• Without target tracking

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Genesys
Gartner names Genesys a leader
in the 2018 Magic Quadrant for
Contact Center Infrastructure …
(23 times and counting)

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Genesys platforms

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PureCloud deployment

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Infrastructure scale
get-discovered-resource-counts

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Deployments per week
1527
505
348
1 2 3
Numberofdeployments
Deployment types

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Problem we are trying to solve
Highly available platform
while optimizing for cost
Due to security and compliance reasons,
we do not fail over across regions
Each region has unique usage pattern.
As a result each region needs to be
tuned constantly for capacity
Our frequency of adjusting scaling settings has
reduced our capability to focus on our core
competencies.

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Asia Pacific (Tokyo)US East (N. Virginia) EU (Ireland)
Daily throughput across regions

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We had an accident earlier this
year!

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Sharp spike in traffic
Deploy
Roll Back
Error
Spike
Fix deployed

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ASG total instance count
RollBack
Scale-up – sharp spike in traffic.
Resulted into a spike in error rate
Fixed ASG min values
New code
deploy
Scaled down
Low traffic

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Daily scale up with predictive scaling
Schedule scale-up Enable predictive scaling
Predictive
Dynamic
Guard rail
Dynamic
Controlled
scale-upSharp scale-
up

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Predictive scaling might have helped here
Guard rail??

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Due to our use of Red-Black deployment strategy,
almost all of our ASG’s did not have enough historical
data
Lessons learned
ALB metrics are supported but ELB are not!
We can rely on predictive & dynamic scaling to
auto-adjust our capacity
We still need to track and monitor our data &
cache tier
We are not quite ready for 100% auto-pilot

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What’s next?
• Roll out predictive scaling to more
services
• “Forecast only” option is very
powerful on its own
• Review and verify proposed changes
• Identify cost optimizations (e.g.,
Reserved Instance)

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Availability
US East (Virginia)
US East (Ohio)
US West (Oregon)
EU (Ireland)
Asia Pacific (Singapore)

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Get started
https://aws.amazon.com/autoscaling/

39. Thank you!
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Kal Patel
kal.patel@genesys.com
Prasad Sristi
sristips@amazon.com
www.linkedin.com/in/prasadsristi

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