This report summarizes the corporate strategic foresight exercise conducted by FAO on the future of food and agriculture. It identifies key drivers that will shape agrifood systems, analyzes their interactions, and detects weak signals of potential challenges. Four scenarios are presented for 2030 and beyond: continuing on the current path leads to degradation, while achieving sustainability requires trading short-term gains for long-term resilience. The report highlights policy options focused on governance, consumer awareness, wealth distribution, and innovation to trigger transformations toward sustainability. While challenges are significant, the report maintains an optimistic view that collapse can be avoided through coordinated global action.
The document discusses food insecurity in South Africa and the city of Tshwane. While South Africa produces enough food, 14 million people still experience food insecurity due to poverty. In Tshwane, about 35% of the population of over 1 million people are food insecure. The document outlines strategies to address food insecurity through supporting small-scale agriculture, improving incomes and social services, disaster mitigation, and promoting nutrition. The key causes of food insecurity are identified as lack of access to food due to poverty, unemployment, and an inability to produce or purchase enough food.
Presentation prepared by Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow, all with the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This is part of the Global Crisis Country Series.
Jessica Fanzo
POLICY SEMINAR
Climate resilience, sustainable food systems, and healthy diets: Can we have it all?
OCT 31, 2017 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
A short presentation to accompany a lesson on global food and water security. Blog post with more information about the lesson can be found on eternalexploration.wordpress.com
Global Food Security Challenges and OpportunitiesShenggen Fan
Global food security faces many challenges including volatile food prices, population growth, land and water constraints, climate change, and the increasing demand for biofuels. To address these issues, the document calls for a development agenda with greater support for food security through investments in agriculture, safety nets, land and water productivity, and climate change adaptation. It also emphasizes the crucial role policy research can play in informing investments and policies to promote food security through impacts on areas like poverty reduction, resource allocation, and agricultural technology development and adoption.
This document outlines a framework for sustainable food value chains. It defines a sustainable food value chain as one that is profitable, provides broad social benefits, and has a neutral or positive environmental impact. It presents an analytical framework that considers the economic, social, and environmental impacts of food value chains. It also describes 10 guiding principles for developing sustainable food value chains, including that they should be economically sustainable, socially inclusive, environmentally green, and driven by a clear vision and strategy.
Food security depends on availability, affordability, and quality/safety of food. The document analyzes threats to food security like weather events, economic and political instability, and population factors. It also discusses effects like hunger and policies by Nigerian governments to address food insecurity, including agricultural programs from the 1970s-2010s. Recommendations include collaborative planning, infrastructure, monitoring/evaluation, and credit access to promote food security.
The document discusses food insecurity in South Africa and the city of Tshwane. While South Africa produces enough food, 14 million people still experience food insecurity due to poverty. In Tshwane, about 35% of the population of over 1 million people are food insecure. The document outlines strategies to address food insecurity through supporting small-scale agriculture, improving incomes and social services, disaster mitigation, and promoting nutrition. The key causes of food insecurity are identified as lack of access to food due to poverty, unemployment, and an inability to produce or purchase enough food.
Presentation prepared by Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow, all with the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This is part of the Global Crisis Country Series.
Jessica Fanzo
POLICY SEMINAR
Climate resilience, sustainable food systems, and healthy diets: Can we have it all?
OCT 31, 2017 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
A short presentation to accompany a lesson on global food and water security. Blog post with more information about the lesson can be found on eternalexploration.wordpress.com
Global Food Security Challenges and OpportunitiesShenggen Fan
Global food security faces many challenges including volatile food prices, population growth, land and water constraints, climate change, and the increasing demand for biofuels. To address these issues, the document calls for a development agenda with greater support for food security through investments in agriculture, safety nets, land and water productivity, and climate change adaptation. It also emphasizes the crucial role policy research can play in informing investments and policies to promote food security through impacts on areas like poverty reduction, resource allocation, and agricultural technology development and adoption.
This document outlines a framework for sustainable food value chains. It defines a sustainable food value chain as one that is profitable, provides broad social benefits, and has a neutral or positive environmental impact. It presents an analytical framework that considers the economic, social, and environmental impacts of food value chains. It also describes 10 guiding principles for developing sustainable food value chains, including that they should be economically sustainable, socially inclusive, environmentally green, and driven by a clear vision and strategy.
Food security depends on availability, affordability, and quality/safety of food. The document analyzes threats to food security like weather events, economic and political instability, and population factors. It also discusses effects like hunger and policies by Nigerian governments to address food insecurity, including agricultural programs from the 1970s-2010s. Recommendations include collaborative planning, infrastructure, monitoring/evaluation, and credit access to promote food security.
Johan Swinnen, Sonja Vermeulen and Martin Kropff
POLICY SEMINAR
Addressing the global food security crisis
Strengthening research and policy responses
Co-organized by German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and CGIAR
JUL 25, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EDT
Food insecurity and poverty trends, Association between food insecurity and poverty, causes and effects, food insecurity and poverty in the Ugandan context.
Measuring empowerment in agricultural development projects using WEAI and WELIILRI
Presentation by Alessandra Galiè, Elena Martinez and Agnes Quisumbing at the 2019 Agriculture, Nutrition and Health Academy Week, Hyderabad, India, 24–28 June 2019.
Sisay Sinamo Boltena
SPECIAL EVENT
Funding Food System Transformation in Developing Countries: An example from Ethiopia
UNFSS Side Event -- Co-organized by IFPRI, The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, CGIAR
SEP 24, 2021 - 08:00 AM TO 09:30 AM EDT
Food security is defined as when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs. While more than enough food is produced to feed the entire planet, more than 828 million people go hungry daily. These slides talk about the rising threat of world hunger and sustainable solutions for global food security.
The document discusses food insecurity and famine in Ethiopia. It defines famine and provides a history of famines in Ethiopia, noting that severe famines have occurred every few decades. It identifies the major causes of food insecurity as inadequate and variable rainfall, soil degradation, conflict, poor infrastructure, health and nutrition issues, and high population growth. The food security strategy of Ethiopia aims to increase domestic food production through irrigation, conservation agriculture, and livestock development, while also ensuring access to food through micro-enterprises, improved marketing, safety nets, and disaster response.
This document discusses sustainable food systems. It defines a food system as encompassing all actors and activities involved in food production, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal. A sustainable food system is one that provides food security and nutrition for current and future generations without compromising economic, social or environmental sustainability. It must be economically viable, socially equitable, and have neutral or positive environmental impacts. The food system is driven by biophysical, demographic, technological, political, economic and socio-cultural factors.
Changing patterns of malnutrition in Ethiopia and lessons learned. Stunting, wasting, and underweight rates in children under 5 have declined significantly from 2000 to 2014 due to decisive government commitment and leadership. Key factors contributing to improvements include strengthened primary health care and nutrition-specific interventions, expanded access to agriculture and education, and multi-sectoral nutrition policies integrated across health, agriculture, education, industry, and social protection sectors. Remaining challenges include continuing to address equity and quality, strengthening nutrition-sensitive actions and information systems, and managing the emerging issues of overweight and obesity.
Luca Russo
POLICY SEMINAR
Technical Discussion on the 2019 Global Report on Food Crises: Working together to prevent food crises
Co-Organized by IFPRI, FAO North America and Food Security Information Network (FSIN)
APR 26, 2019 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Revisiting Trials of Improved Practices Methodology_Del Rosso_5.10.11CORE Group
Trials of Improved Practices (TIPs) is a formative research technique where participants test feasible behaviors identified through prior research in their own homes. Researchers visit participants multiple times to provide recommendations, get feedback, and understand barriers and enablers to behavior change. TIPs helps design effective behavior change strategies by learning how behaviors work in natural contexts from those with specialized knowledge of their situation.
Webinar | Measuring livelihood changes across households implementing climate...AICCRA
Presentation by Dr. Meredith Niles and Dr. Kristal Jones during the AICCRA webinar on measuring livelihood changes across households implementing climate-smart agriculture.
This webinar presented results from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), a 10-year research for development initiative that tested and promoted CSA practices and technologies in more than 20 sites globally.
The webinar featured results from one of the most comprehensive analyses of CSA implementation to date.
Fertilizer markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are under severe pressure due to low inventories and high global prices. According to recent estimates, many key markets have less than 20% of the inventory needed to meet demand for the upcoming cropping season. Imports into major markets like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya in Q1 2022 were only around 10% of total demand. Global fertilizer prices reached record highs in early 2022 and availability from major suppliers like Russia and Ukraine has been significantly reduced due to the war. Without government subsidies or interventions to boost supplies, fertilizer access will remain very limited across Sub-Saharan Africa threatening food production for 2022.
Community Based Management of Acute Malnutrition according UNICEF and WHO standards Implementation in Oromia Region, Ethiopia WIth Pablo Horstmann Foundation and Alegria Sin Fronteras
A lecture in Quantitative Sustainability
It is often claimed that agricultural productivity needs to be increased in order to feed a growing world population. Food security depends on several factors besides the productivity, including waste/efficiency, energy crops, meat consumption, and global justice and equity. This lecture explores the issue of food security in its many dimensions and teaches how to use a high-level systems approach in sustainability science.
Opportunities for Africa to address all forms of malnutrition: How can the UN...ILRI
Presented by Namukolo Covic, Director General’s Representative to Ethiopia, at the UN Nutrition Strategy 2022-2030 Launch, African Union, 31 October 2022
The document summarizes food security measures in dry land areas of Ethiopia. It discusses key policies and interventions to ensure food security, including strengthening agricultural research, extension services, natural resource management, irrigation, and food security programs. It notes that dry land areas cover 68% of Ethiopia and support over 30 million people. The main lessons are the need for integrated approaches at national, community, and household levels to address issues like land degradation and promote water and food security. Emerging challenges include climate change impacts and limited technology uptake in dry land areas. Main recommendations are to strengthen integrated approaches and agricultural research, improve technology delivery, and build human and institutional capacity.
The future of food systems: Drivers and triggers for transformationSIANIAgriculture
This document summarizes a presentation on strategic foresight for transforming agrifood systems. It outlines the corporate strategic foresight process, which includes defining agrifood systems, identifying drivers, analyzing interactions, quantitative modeling of scenarios, and developing narratives and policy options. It then discusses key drivers like economic growth and food prices based on historical trends and potential "weak signals" for alternative futures. Finally, it introduces the FAO's four scenarios - "More of the Same", "Adjusted Future", "Race to the Bottom", and "Trading off for Sustainability" - and potential triggers for transforming agrifood systems.
Johan Swinnen, Sonja Vermeulen and Martin Kropff
POLICY SEMINAR
Addressing the global food security crisis
Strengthening research and policy responses
Co-organized by German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and CGIAR
JUL 25, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EDT
Food insecurity and poverty trends, Association between food insecurity and poverty, causes and effects, food insecurity and poverty in the Ugandan context.
Measuring empowerment in agricultural development projects using WEAI and WELIILRI
Presentation by Alessandra Galiè, Elena Martinez and Agnes Quisumbing at the 2019 Agriculture, Nutrition and Health Academy Week, Hyderabad, India, 24–28 June 2019.
Sisay Sinamo Boltena
SPECIAL EVENT
Funding Food System Transformation in Developing Countries: An example from Ethiopia
UNFSS Side Event -- Co-organized by IFPRI, The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, CGIAR
SEP 24, 2021 - 08:00 AM TO 09:30 AM EDT
Food security is defined as when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs. While more than enough food is produced to feed the entire planet, more than 828 million people go hungry daily. These slides talk about the rising threat of world hunger and sustainable solutions for global food security.
The document discusses food insecurity and famine in Ethiopia. It defines famine and provides a history of famines in Ethiopia, noting that severe famines have occurred every few decades. It identifies the major causes of food insecurity as inadequate and variable rainfall, soil degradation, conflict, poor infrastructure, health and nutrition issues, and high population growth. The food security strategy of Ethiopia aims to increase domestic food production through irrigation, conservation agriculture, and livestock development, while also ensuring access to food through micro-enterprises, improved marketing, safety nets, and disaster response.
This document discusses sustainable food systems. It defines a food system as encompassing all actors and activities involved in food production, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal. A sustainable food system is one that provides food security and nutrition for current and future generations without compromising economic, social or environmental sustainability. It must be economically viable, socially equitable, and have neutral or positive environmental impacts. The food system is driven by biophysical, demographic, technological, political, economic and socio-cultural factors.
Changing patterns of malnutrition in Ethiopia and lessons learned. Stunting, wasting, and underweight rates in children under 5 have declined significantly from 2000 to 2014 due to decisive government commitment and leadership. Key factors contributing to improvements include strengthened primary health care and nutrition-specific interventions, expanded access to agriculture and education, and multi-sectoral nutrition policies integrated across health, agriculture, education, industry, and social protection sectors. Remaining challenges include continuing to address equity and quality, strengthening nutrition-sensitive actions and information systems, and managing the emerging issues of overweight and obesity.
Luca Russo
POLICY SEMINAR
Technical Discussion on the 2019 Global Report on Food Crises: Working together to prevent food crises
Co-Organized by IFPRI, FAO North America and Food Security Information Network (FSIN)
APR 26, 2019 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Revisiting Trials of Improved Practices Methodology_Del Rosso_5.10.11CORE Group
Trials of Improved Practices (TIPs) is a formative research technique where participants test feasible behaviors identified through prior research in their own homes. Researchers visit participants multiple times to provide recommendations, get feedback, and understand barriers and enablers to behavior change. TIPs helps design effective behavior change strategies by learning how behaviors work in natural contexts from those with specialized knowledge of their situation.
Webinar | Measuring livelihood changes across households implementing climate...AICCRA
Presentation by Dr. Meredith Niles and Dr. Kristal Jones during the AICCRA webinar on measuring livelihood changes across households implementing climate-smart agriculture.
This webinar presented results from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), a 10-year research for development initiative that tested and promoted CSA practices and technologies in more than 20 sites globally.
The webinar featured results from one of the most comprehensive analyses of CSA implementation to date.
Fertilizer markets in Sub-Saharan Africa are under severe pressure due to low inventories and high global prices. According to recent estimates, many key markets have less than 20% of the inventory needed to meet demand for the upcoming cropping season. Imports into major markets like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya in Q1 2022 were only around 10% of total demand. Global fertilizer prices reached record highs in early 2022 and availability from major suppliers like Russia and Ukraine has been significantly reduced due to the war. Without government subsidies or interventions to boost supplies, fertilizer access will remain very limited across Sub-Saharan Africa threatening food production for 2022.
Community Based Management of Acute Malnutrition according UNICEF and WHO standards Implementation in Oromia Region, Ethiopia WIth Pablo Horstmann Foundation and Alegria Sin Fronteras
A lecture in Quantitative Sustainability
It is often claimed that agricultural productivity needs to be increased in order to feed a growing world population. Food security depends on several factors besides the productivity, including waste/efficiency, energy crops, meat consumption, and global justice and equity. This lecture explores the issue of food security in its many dimensions and teaches how to use a high-level systems approach in sustainability science.
Opportunities for Africa to address all forms of malnutrition: How can the UN...ILRI
Presented by Namukolo Covic, Director General’s Representative to Ethiopia, at the UN Nutrition Strategy 2022-2030 Launch, African Union, 31 October 2022
The document summarizes food security measures in dry land areas of Ethiopia. It discusses key policies and interventions to ensure food security, including strengthening agricultural research, extension services, natural resource management, irrigation, and food security programs. It notes that dry land areas cover 68% of Ethiopia and support over 30 million people. The main lessons are the need for integrated approaches at national, community, and household levels to address issues like land degradation and promote water and food security. Emerging challenges include climate change impacts and limited technology uptake in dry land areas. Main recommendations are to strengthen integrated approaches and agricultural research, improve technology delivery, and build human and institutional capacity.
The future of food systems: Drivers and triggers for transformationSIANIAgriculture
This document summarizes a presentation on strategic foresight for transforming agrifood systems. It outlines the corporate strategic foresight process, which includes defining agrifood systems, identifying drivers, analyzing interactions, quantitative modeling of scenarios, and developing narratives and policy options. It then discusses key drivers like economic growth and food prices based on historical trends and potential "weak signals" for alternative futures. Finally, it introduces the FAO's four scenarios - "More of the Same", "Adjusted Future", "Race to the Bottom", and "Trading off for Sustainability" - and potential triggers for transforming agrifood systems.
Long-term scenario building for food and agriculture: A global overall model ...FAO
The document discusses the importance of the FAO's Global Perspective Studies (GPS) in providing long-term projections on food, agriculture, and sustainability issues. It outlines the need to update the GPS analytical tools and models to better address current issues and produce the next report "Food and Agriculture towards 2050-80". The workshop aims to discuss how to strengthen the GPS analytical framework through the use of global economy-wide models and partnerships with other organizations.
Regional study on small scale agriculture in the NENA region Jacques Marzi...Nena Agri
Regional study on small scale agriculture in the NENA region Jacques Marzin CIRAD, Omar Bessaoud CIHEAM-IAMM, Pascal Bonnet CIRAD, International Coordination Team , FAO- Cairo 2015
John Ulimwengu_2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference - Plenary Session IIIAKADEMIYA2063
The document discusses the need to transform food systems in Africa to address ongoing issues like hunger, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. It makes the following key points:
1) Africa is not on track to meet UN sustainable development goals on hunger and nutrition, with over 280 million facing hunger and millions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies.
2) Food systems must be transformed to improve outcomes related to health, environment, equity and sustainability, which requires changing the behaviors of various food system actors.
3) Transforming outcomes requires food system actors to adapt their activities in response to social, economic and policy signals over time. Effective science-policy-society interfaces will be important to coordinate transformation efforts across different contexts.
The Economist Intelligence Unit gives their view about the future of food supply in the world. Food must be enough in quantity and quality to feed the future population.
Catalysing the Sustainable and Inclusive Transformation of Food Systems, From...Francois Stepman
Presentation of Hélène David-Benz - Senior Researcher, French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development on 10 June 2021. Catalysing the Sustainable and Inclusive Transformation of Food Systems, From Assessment to Policy and Investment
Since 2020, the EU, FAO and CIRAD have entered into a partnership with governments and stakeholders to initiate a large-scale assessment and consultation on food systems in more than 50 countries.
Modeling to Better Inform Food, Energy, and Water Policies: Country PerspectiveCIFOR-ICRAF
Presentation given by Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, at the Global Landscapes Forum on 16 November 2016 in Marrakesh, Morocco.
http://www.landscapes.org/
Mark Rosegrant
Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight against climate change and hunger
Marrakech, Morocco
November 16, 2016
This document summarizes a foresight exercise conducted by the JRC on global food security by 2030. It defines foresight as a process that explores future changes through qualitative and quantitative analysis to support shaping future strategies. The exercise gathered experts to identify key drivers of change and develop a vision of a preferred future where food security ensures adequate supply. The vision emphasizes a demand-driven, sustainable food system through trade, regulation and governance. Challenges to the vision include uncertainty around trade, urbanization's impact, and need for EU policy coherence across a food systems approach.
Labelling origin food products, towards sustainable rural developmentIgnacio López Moreno
This document outlines a study on how local actors create origin food labels (OFLs) in response to globalized food systems and their contributions to sustainable territorial development. It presents the research objectives, questions, and theoretical framework. Two case studies are described: a Protected Designation of Origin for Merina sheep cheese from Grazalema, Spain and a quality label for Texel lamb from Texel Island, Netherlands. Lessons are discussed around how OFLs help local producers compete globally and improve livelihoods while coordinating sustainable practices.
Reducir la inseguridad alimentaria y fomentar el empleo y la generación de ingresos.
El proyecto tiene como objetivo desarrollar un enfoque para atraer
inversiones alineadas con los ODS en sistemas agroalimentarios que puedan que puede ser replicado en otros países y regiones en desarrollo
con impactos similares.
Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD on April 12, 2013 at the Food Security Futures Conference in Dublin, Ireland.
IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series provides a platform for all people striving to identify and implement evidence-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. The series is part of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
This document provides an overview and summary of the state of the global debate on inclusive business models in agriculture. It discusses the lack of consensus on what inclusive business means and how to promote it in practice. The document aims to advance the debate by reviewing stakeholder perspectives on inclusive business, analyzing evidence on opportunities and constraints within different value chains, and identifying lessons and ways forward, particularly regarding land governance. It identifies five emerging "pillars" of inclusive business based on stakeholder views and assesses these pillars in case studies of selected crop value chains. The analysis finds that both business models and the specific relationships within value chains must be considered to fully evaluate inclusiveness. It also notes the importance of outcomes in addition to processes and
Scientific and Technical Partnerships in Africa: Technologies, Platforms, and Partnerships in support of the African agricultural science agenda, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, April 4&5, 2017
Similaire à The future of food and agriculture Drivers and triggers for transformation (20)
These set of slides were presented at the BEP Seminar "Targeting in Development Projects: Approaches, challenges, and lessons learned" held last Oct. 2, 2023 in Cairo, Egypt
Caitlin Welsh
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Joseph Glauber
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Antonina Broyaka
POLICY SEMINAR
Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War
2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session
Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR
OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT
Bofana, Jose. 2023. Mapping cropland extent over a complex landscape: An assessment of the best approaches across the Zambezi River basin. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Mananze, Sosdito. 2023. Examples of remote sensing application in agriculture monitoring. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
This document discusses using satellite data and crop modeling to forecast crop yields in Mozambique. It summarizes previous studies conducted in the US, Argentina, and Brazil to test a remote sensing crop growth and simulation model (RS-CGSM) for predicting corn and soybean yields. For Mozambique, additional data is needed on crop cultivars, management practices, planting and harvest seasons. It also describes using earth observation data and machine learning models to forecast crop yields and conditions across many countries as part of the GEOGLAM program, though this is currently only implemented in South Africa for Africa. Finally, it mentions a production efficiency model for estimating yield from satellite estimates of gross primary production.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Kickoff Meeting (virtual), January 12, 2023
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 1. Stakeholder engagement for impacts. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Centro de Estudos de Políticas e Programas Agroalimentares (CEPPAG). 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 3. Digital collection of groundtruthing data. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
ITC/University of Twente. 2023. Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agricultural Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique. Component 2. Enhanced area sampling frames. PowerPoint presentation given during the Project Inception Workshop, VIP Grand Hotel, Maputo, Mozambique, April 20, 2023
Christina Justice
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Rice is the most consumed cereal in Senegal, accounting for 34% of total cereal consumption. Per capita consumption is 80-90kg annually, though there is an urban-rural divide. While domestic production has doubled between 2010-2021, it still only meets 40% of demand. As a result, Senegal imports around 1 million tons annually, mainly from India and Thailand. Several public policies aim to incentivize domestic production and stabilize prices, though rice remains highly exposed to international price shocks due to its importance in consumption and reliance on imports.
Abdullah Mamun and Joseph Glauber
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Shirley Mustafa
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Joseph Glauber
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
This document provides an overview of the Political Economy and Policy Analysis (PEPA) Sourcebook virtual book launch. It summarizes the purpose and features of the PEPA Sourcebook, which is a guide for generating evidence to inform national food, land, and water policies and strategies. The Sourcebook includes frameworks, analytical tools, case studies, and step-by-step guidance for conducting political economy and policy analysis. It aims to address the current fragmentation in approaches and lack of external validity by integrating different frameworks and methods into a single resource. The launch event highlighted example frameworks and case studies from the Sourcebook that focus on various policy domains like food and nutrition, land, and climate and ecology.
- Rice exports from Myanmar have exceeded 2 million tons per year since 2019-2020, except for 2020-2021 during the peak of the pandemic. Exports through seaports now account for around 80% of total exports.
- Domestic rice prices in Myanmar have closely tracked Thai export prices, suggesting strong linkages between domestic and international markets.
- Simulations of a 10% decrease in rice productivity and a 0.4 million ton increase in exports in 2022-2023 resulted in a 33% increase in domestic prices, a 5% fall in production, and a 10% drop in consumption, with poor households suffering the largest declines in rice consumption of 12-13%.
Bedru Balana, Research Fellow, IFPRI, presented these slides at the AAAE2023 Conference, Durban, South Africa, 18-21 September 2023. The authors acknowledged the contributions of CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies, Google, the International Rescue Committee, IFPRI, and USAID.
Sara McHattie
IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
Facilitating Anticipatory Action with Improved Early Warning Guidance
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
SEP 26, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
Plus de International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (20)
Indira awas yojana housing scheme renamed as PMAYnarinav14
Indira Awas Yojana (IAY) played a significant role in addressing rural housing needs in India. It emerged as a comprehensive program for affordable housing solutions in rural areas, predating the government’s broader focus on mass housing initiatives.
RFP for Reno's Community Assistance CenterThis Is Reno
Property appraisals completed in May for downtown Reno’s Community Assistance and Triage Centers (CAC) reveal that repairing the buildings to bring them back into service would cost an estimated $10.1 million—nearly four times the amount previously reported by city staff.
This report explores the significance of border towns and spaces for strengthening responses to young people on the move. In particular it explores the linkages of young people to local service centres with the aim of further developing service, protection, and support strategies for migrant children in border areas across the region. The report is based on a small-scale fieldwork study in the border towns of Chipata and Katete in Zambia conducted in July 2023. Border towns and spaces provide a rich source of information about issues related to the informal or irregular movement of young people across borders, including smuggling and trafficking. They can help build a picture of the nature and scope of the type of movement young migrants undertake and also the forms of protection available to them. Border towns and spaces also provide a lens through which we can better understand the vulnerabilities of young people on the move and, critically, the strategies they use to navigate challenges and access support.
The findings in this report highlight some of the key factors shaping the experiences and vulnerabilities of young people on the move – particularly their proximity to border spaces and how this affects the risks that they face. The report describes strategies that young people on the move employ to remain below the radar of visibility to state and non-state actors due to fear of arrest, detention, and deportation while also trying to keep themselves safe and access support in border towns. These strategies of (in)visibility provide a way to protect themselves yet at the same time also heighten some of the risks young people face as their vulnerabilities are not always recognised by those who could offer support.
In this report we show that the realities and challenges of life and migration in this region and in Zambia need to be better understood for support to be strengthened and tuned to meet the specific needs of young people on the move. This includes understanding the role of state and non-state stakeholders, the impact of laws and policies and, critically, the experiences of the young people themselves. We provide recommendations for immediate action, recommendations for programming to support young people on the move in the two towns that would reduce risk for young people in this area, and recommendations for longer term policy advocacy.
Food safety, prepare for the unexpected - So what can be done in order to be ready to address food safety, food Consumers, food producers and manufacturers, food transporters, food businesses, food retailers can ...
The Antyodaya Saral Haryana Portal is a pioneering initiative by the Government of Haryana aimed at providing citizens with seamless access to a wide range of government services
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
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The future of food and agriculture Drivers and triggers for transformation
1. IFPRI – Washington DC, 01 February 2023
Seminar Co-organized by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), IFPRI, and the CGIAR
Research Initiative on Foresight
Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, Senior Economist, Lead Policy Intelligence Branch - Global
Perspectives, FAO UN – Rome
The future of food and agriculture
Drivers and triggers for transformation
2. The corporate strategic foresight process
This report illustrates the process and findings of the corporate strategic foresight exercise (CFSE).
Here are the essential steps of the CSFE process:
Mapping
agrifood systems
Identification of
agrifood systems’ drivers
Analysis of drivers’
interactions
Detection of
“weak signals”
Narratives of future scenarios
(snapshots and pathways)
Triggers and/or accelerators
for desired transformations
Strategies and policy options
for desired outcomes
Backward steps (iterative processes)
Sequential workflow
Main steps
3. FOFA DTT: Four alternative scenarios to 2030, 2050 and beyond
More of the same (MOS). Muddling through reactions to events and crises, while doing just
enough to avoid systemic collapses, led to degradation of agrifood systems sustainability and to
poor living conditions for a large number of people, thus increasing the long-run likelihood of
systemic failures.
Adjusted future (AFU). Some moves towards sustainable agrifood systems were triggered in an
attempt to achieve Agenda 2030 goals and some improvements in terms of well-being were
obtained, but the lack of overall sustainability and systemic resilience hampered their maintenance
in the long run.
Race to the bottom (RAB). Gravely ill-incentivized decisions led the world to the worst version of
itself after the collapse of substantial parts of socioeconomic, environmental and agrifood systems
with costly and almost irreversible consequences for a very large number of people and
ecosystems.
Trading off for sustainability (TOS). Awareness, education, social commitment, sense of
responsibility and participation triggered new power relationships, and shifted the development
paradigm in most countries. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth (and/or final consumption)
was traded off for inclusiveness, resilience and sustainability of agrifood, socioeconomic and
environmental systems.
4. Mapping agrifood systems: drivers, activities and outcomes
Socioeconomic systems’ drivers affect agrifood
systems both on the demand and supply sides.
Source: FAO. 2022. The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation. Rome.
Agrifood systems’ activities are influenced by
selected drivers that largely depend on choices and
behaviours of agents within the agrifood systems
themselves.
Environmental systems frame both agrifood and
socioeconomic systems. Climate change, together
with the other environmental drivers, influence all
the drivers and are in turn influenced by them.
Agrifood systems’ outcomes depend on complex
relationships with socioeconomic and environmental
systems and co-determine, via systemic linkages and
feedback effects, the other systems.
5. Identification of drivers: what is new?
• Some drivers had already been identified and
analysed in previous FOFA works. In this report,
they have been updated/upgraded
• Given the changing circumstances and the proximity to 2030, The future of food
and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation, this report, compared to
previous ones, puts more emphasis on aspects such as:
– cross-country interdependencies
– epidemics and degradation of ecosystems
– market concentration
– increasing food prices
– science and innovation
– capital and information intensification of agrifood production processes
– big data generation, control, and ownership
– uncertainties at all levels.
6. Selected drivers and ‘weak signals’: Economic growth (Driver 2)
Source: FAO UN, 2022. The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation.
Historical trend:
Convergence between
HICs and LMICS in terms
of per capita income
remains highly
problematic’.
‘Weak signal’:
Convergence between
HICs and LMICS in terms
of per capita income may
not materialize at all in
the next decades (but see
China)
GDP per capita at purchasing power parity by region (1990–2020)
7. Structural transformation: agricultural GDP and employment
Historical trends:
The share of agricultural value
added with respect to the share
of employment in agriculture
exhibits different dynamics in
different regions. SSA reduced
share of employment but
increased value added.
‘Weak signal’: The traditional,
schoolbook type of transition
may not work (anymore) for
selected regions. A future of
structural unemployment
and/or strong migration of
former agricultural work
cannot be ruled out.
Share of agricultural value added in GDP and the share of agricultural
employment (1991–2019)
8. Outcomes and ‘weak signals’: Food security and nutrition
0
5
10
15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Percentage
Historical Business as usual Towards sustainability Stratified societies
Base-year
for
projections
Sources: Scenario projections are based on FAO, 2018: The future of food and agriculture - Alternative pathways to 2050.
The base-year for projections is recalibrated as in FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2020: The state of food security and nutrition in the world.
Historical data from 2000 to 2019 are drawn from FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2020: The state of food security and nutrition in the world.
Historical data from 2020 to 2021 are drawn from FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2022: The state of food security and nutrition in the world.
Prevalence of undernourishment: Historical (2000-21) and
projected (2012-2050)
Historical and projected trends:
Some successes, signalled by nutrition
indicators have been achieved but the
PoU has increased in the last five years.
After a decade of successes, and is
moving along what was considered a
‘worst case’ scenario.
‘Weak signal’: Historical achievements
are not resilient and easily reversible.
Possible futures should comprise cases
of increasing food insecurity due to
lack of control over causes such as
climate change, conflicts and
inequalities.
9. Triggers of development, strategies and policies
The corporate FOFA-DTT report portrays and analyses four
“priority triggers” for transformation, identified by
FAO’s Corporate Strategic Foresight Exercise (CSFE),
and incorporated in FAO Strategic Framework 2022–31:
1) institutions and governance;
2) consumer awareness;
3) income and wealth distribution; and
4) innovative technologies and approaches
• With no pretention to be exhaustive, this FOFA report suggests strategic and policy options
that exploit (trigger) these triggers.
• Strategic and policy options may shift actual future across scenarios.
10. Highlighting trade-offs along development patterns
Win-win situations may be possible but in many instances conflicting objectives will have to be
addressed. A sustainable and resilient future leaving no one behind requires enduring some costs.
Selected conflicting objectives
Achieving sustainable yields (by internalizing
social and environmental costs)
Achieving food security and nutrition (improving
purchasing power of vulnerable people)
Increasing agrifood output Reducing agrifood GHG emissions
Achieving sustainable yields Minimizing land use expansion
Increasing employment Increasing wages
Innovating technologies Increasing employment
Increasing foreign exchange inflows from few
exports
Increasing economic diversification
Increasing food availability Using biomass as renewable energy
Funding social protection schemes Funding public infrastructure and R&D
Achieving food security Pursuing food safety
11. Strategic options and investment priorities to “trigger triggers”
Overarching: Invest in human capital for sound diagnoses and design of theories and
practices of change based on solid causal linkages between actions and expected
outcomes.
1. Governance: transforming voluntary guidelines into enforceable legislation. Set
trade rules and negotiating skills to protect virtuous countries adopting stricter
social and environmental rules;
2. Consumer awareness: supporting certifications and labelling for socially and
environmentally sustainable value chains. Preventing “social and green washing”.
3. Income and wealth distribution: Focusing on arrangements for retaining and
sharing value added. Tracking and stopping illicit financial flows (SDG 16.4);
4. Technologies and other innovating approaches. Support national and local R&D
that allow reducing leakages for profit expatriation, royalties, various costs relted to
import of ‘second hand’ obsolete technologies.
12. Overarching message of the FAO flagship report FOFA –DTT
It is still possible to avoid the collapse of agrifood, socio-economic and
environmental systems, provided that short-term unsustainable achievements
be traded off for longer-term sustainability and resilience.
Indeed, sustainable and resilient development does not run along a ‘toll-free
motorway’: wealthier countries and social groups that can afford the inevitable
costs of transformation should bear them to support to those already affected
by the negative impacts of unsustainable development.
In this endeavor, “…my mind is pessimistic, but my will is optimistic. Whatever
the situation, I imagine the worst that could happen in order to summon up all
my reserves and will power to overcome every obstacle.” (Antonio Gramsci,
Italian philosopher, 1927). Overall, pessimism is a luxury that we cannot afford.
13. The future of food and agriculture: stay tuned
Drivers and triggers for transformation
https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0959en
Dashboard
www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/fofa-dtt-
dashboard
FOFA series
www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/fofa
Notes de l'éditeur
This FAO flagship report fits within a long lasting corporate tradition of carrying out forward-looking studies in support to corporate strategic planning activities and to the service of the development community at large. It is the fourth issue in the corporate series “The future of food and agriculture”.
The number 0, Achieving zero hunger, preliminary to the formal set-up of the series, served to set up FAO’s position at the Conference on Financing for Development, In Addis Ababa in 2015.
The second report Trends and challenges, constituted the conceptual backbone of the FAO Medium Term Plan in 2017.
The third one, Alternative pathways to 2050, for the first time at FAO provided alternative scenarios for agrifood systems and related quantitative projections.
This FOFA report has been developed in close synergy with the preparation of the FAO Strategic Framework 2022-2031, thanks to a Corporate Strategic Foresight Exercise
Notes: Core activities of agrifood systems (production, processing, retailing etc.), which are interlinked through flows of goods and services
(items in the white box at the centre), occur within broader socioeconomic and environmental systems (light blue and dark blue boxes).
Socioeconomic and environmental drivers, as well as selected drivers determined within the agrifood systems themselves, (labels on the lefthand
side of the figure), influence the state and dynamics of agrifood systems and their socioeconomic and environmental outcomes (labels on
the right-hand side of the figure). Triggers of change (top of the figure) affect agrifood systems and their outcomes through their impacts on
selected environmental, socioeconomic and agrifood drivers (labels on the left of the figure in the first, second and third columns, respectively).
The different colours of drivers reflect their relationship with the trigger affecting them. The trigger designated "Institutions and governance’"
affects all drivers and directly impinges on the functioning of the whole agrifood system and its relationships with the other systems. Given the
systemic relationships among drivers, core activities of agrifood systems and their outcomes, the various triggers may concurrently affect
different drivers, while each driver can be also affected by different triggers of change. The overall graph, core activities and outcomes were
adapted from the Foresight4Food website (www.foresight4food.net/category/blog)
Some drivers had already been identified and analysed in previous FOFA works.
In this report, their analyses have been updated/upgraded: this concerns for instance drivers such as Population, climate change economic growth, poverty and inequalities, for instance
Economic growth in the last 30 years. Significant in some regions and countries (including India and China). However, per capita income (PPP) barely increasing in LAC and Near East and North Africa, stagnant if not decreasing in SSA. Due to the significant per capita growth in HIC, convergence may remain a dream for quite some time.
Note the peculiarities of LAC, NNA and above all SSA, compared with China and SAS
The Strategic Foresight Exercise, which created the ground for the FOFA-DTT report, identified key families of “triggers for transformation” to be considered in this process. They are effective starting points or boosters (depending on the context) for transformative processes to move away from “more of the same” types of future. These families of triggers include:
Significantly reinforcing Institutions and governance. It is clear that there is a mismatch between issues at stake and capacities to govern them. Climate change issues is just an evident example, another is international conflicts, but also international migrations (and, if income gaps persist, what we have seen so far is just the top of the iceberg), trade, pandemics, illicit financial flows (SDG 16.4). The UN could have a great role to play, only if influential Members had the political will to reinforce global institutions.
Consumer awareness; Demand-side policies. Aware and conscious consumers can largely contribute to reducing the pressure through shifting diets away from resource intensive and/or socially inequitable foods, specifically in HICS and selected upper-middle income countries. This may have a global transformative impact.
Income and wealth distribution; food prices have been increasing since the new millennium and are possibly further increasing if social and environmental externalities are going to be internalized. Keeping prices artificially low is a no go. Inefficiencies, overuse of resources etc. Access to food has to be granted via better income distribution (fiscal systems, access to resources, health-care services etc.)
Innovative technologies and approaches. We still has to learn how to produce more with less, including how to transition away from fossil fuels. There are attempts that may reveal possible futures but much more needs to be done, also in view of increasing population.
These triggers, to be still further articulated, complemented and made context-specific, are expected to influence important drivers of agrifood systems and, through multiple systemic linkages and feedback effects, to spread their impacts throughout the socioeconomic and environmental systems for achieving the desired agrifood systems outcomes.
Given their potentially high transformative impacts, activating these triggers in the complex multilateral arena can be politically sensitive, because their effective activation may imply impinging on consolidated power relationships not only within countries but, even more, across countries, including between HICS and LMICS.
Trade-offs in policymaking. The position of each end-state, and the pattern followed to reach there, will both depend on the sets of strategies and policies presumed to be implemented
under each of the scenarios. More specifically, the narratives are characterized by different ways in which strategies and policies will address emerging trade-offs along development patterns.
Overall, trade-offs emerging along development patterns may not reflect contrasting objectives in absolute terms. Given the multiple cross-linkages among the various elements in agrifood systems, policy solutions may exist which reconcile apparently contrasting objectives. In the TOS scenario, for example, adopting sustainable agricultural practices that may imply lower yields in comparison to conventional agriculture, can concurrently lead to limited expansion of arable land if full-cost accounting for food prices is adopted. This would imply higher food prices which would be likely to lead to a comparatively lower expansion of food demand and reduced pressure on land requirements.cd At the same time, food security in a context of higher food prices could be achieved if income and food distribution were improved by means of appropriate governance at all levels, fiscal policies and other policies aimed at increasing wages and income earning opportunities.
Forward-looking (foresight) and investment are conceptually closely linked. In both cases we need to look at forces that currently determine the state and performances of agrifood systems. In other words, Identifying possible future patterns of aTgrifood systems and investing to transform them implies: 1) analyzing current and future patterns of each driver; 2) understand how all the different drivers interact to determine the state and current performances of agrifood systems (causal linkages i.e. cause-effect relationships); and 3) detect ‘weak signals’ of possible futures of agrifood systems; 4) Invest in actions that counteract negative signals and boost positive ones. Investing to “trigger triggers” of transformation may help to move agrifood systems towards sustainability and resilience.
Ultimately, a strategic foresight report has also to convey unfortunate, but plausible, scenarios such as a “more of the same” or even or worse. Win-win solutions are welcome, but they may not exist anymore or be less frequent than what we have thought until now.