All the man events, what reactions they affect and their trajectories, with detailed trading strategies. Good for experienced traders as well as for novices, who want to actually learn, as they trade.

1. byEvening_tao/Freepik
Read Between the Lines and Connect the Dots!
OneMarket Brief
AllIn
The Daily Market Brief that has everything
News I Analysis I Detailed and Explained Trading Signals I Point-by-Point Trading Strategies I
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Pinchas Cohen is a consultant to companies, offering research analysis, trading
signals, live event coverage and market education. Cohen is Financial Markets
Analysts/Contributing Author to Investing.com - where he writes The Week
Ahead, Opening Bell and Chart of the Day – as well as for The Marker. He is the
Founding Chairman of the Israeli Chamber of Technical Analysts.
Ai1 Objectives
1. Capture the Market Understand the various, often conflicting, market forces.
2. Market Sequence See how these forces form a Cause-Reaction-Trajectory sequence.
3. Market Accessibility Grasp complex topics in simple terms, broadening trade-choices
4. Straightforward Analysis What, why, how to trade
5. Natural Education Increase knowledge while trading, seamlessly.
cohen@ForcastIron.com I linkedin.com/in/pinchas-cohen I +972-54-2559095

2. 17/10/2017
2
Today’s main market events, reactions and trajectories and
how they interrelate.
1.
2.
3.
Market Sequences: Cause -> Effect -> Trajectory
Trajectory 1:
Dollar to climb further
and retest the 94.00 level
Trajectory 2:
The price reasserted its
uptrend
Trajectory 3:
While oil is in an uptrend,
it’s under selling pressure
Reaction 1:
Dollar Rises on higher
probability of higher
interest rates
Reaction 2:
Copper reached a 3-year
high
Reaction 3:
Concern that oil supply
will be interrupted
Event 1:
Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen suggested
gradual rate increases
when saying she
believes inflation will
pick up. Global central
bankers backed her
up.
Event 2:
China’s producer price
hits 6-months high
Event 3:
Tensions between
Iraqi forces and Kurds
Connecting the Dots - How events connect and affect combined reactions
Event 1 Yellen, backed-up by other global central bankers, reaffirmed global growth,
which means a higher demand for construction metals.
Event 2 China’s growth supports the global growth story of Event 1. It’s also the fastest
growing economy and therefore the biggest importer of construction metals.
Event 3 The rising price of oil, on top of the rising price of metals
Combined Reaction – Gains in oil and copper led the S&P 500 Index to a record

3. 17/10/2017
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5.
4.
6.
Trajectory 5:
Short and midterm down,
long-term up
Trajectory 4:
Down in the short-term,
up in the long-term
Trajectory 6:
While oil is in an uptrend,
it’s under selling pressure
Reaction 5:
The euro and Spain’s IBEX
35 Index weakened
Reaction 4:
The pound broke a five-
day winning streak
Reaction 6:
Concern that oil supply
will be interrupted
Event 5:
Spain and
independence-seeking
Catalonia at a stand-
off
Event 4:
Brexit talks are
speculated to be
breaking down
Event 6:
The US made
aggressive demands
during a fourth round
of negotiations on the
future of the North
American Free Trade
Agreement
Connecting the Dots - How events connect and affect combined reactions
Event 1 Expectation for higher US rates cause higher demand for dollar
Event 2 China confirms global growth and higher demand for metals, priced in dollar
Event 3 The rising price of oil, priced in dollars
Event 4 Weakening pound, against the dollar
Event 5 Weakening euro, against the dollar
Event 6 Weakening Mexican peso, against the dollar
Combined Reaction – Dollar Strength

4. 17/10/2017
4
Market Sequence Breakdown – Analysis & Trades
While the S&P 500 Index is continuously making new records, it’s safer to trade a more
specific asset, which isn’t so overdue of a correction.
WTI Crude Daily Chart
While the price is being traded within a rising channel and the trend is therefore upward,
it is nearing the former, September 28 peak, where sellers are expected to be waiting with
sell orders, applying pressure to the price. Therefore, yesterday’s gain was pushed down,
forming a bearish Shooting Star, which in addition to the former peak is expected to provide a
resistance.
Connecting the Dots - How events connect and affect combined reactions
Event 1 Yellen, backed-up by other global central bankers, reaffirmed global growth,
which means a higher demand for construction metals.
Event 2 China’s growth supports the global growth story of Event 1. It’s also the fastest
growing economy and therefore the biggest importer of construction metals.
Event 3 The rising price of oil, on top of the rising price of metals
Combined Reaction – Gains in oil and copper led the S&P 500 Index to a record

5. 17/10/2017
5
Trading Strategies
Copper Daily Chart
Copper reaffirmed its uptrend after registering a peak higher than the former, September one.
Rising-Channel
What is it? A rising-channel is confines in which an asset was trading in an uptrend.
How is it formed? The lower line marking the channel-bottom is plotted along the lows
and the upper line marking the channel-top is plotted along the highs.
What the lines mean? The lower line tracks where buyers’ demand overcame supply,
and the upper line tracks where sellers’ supply overcame demand.
Bottom Line: In a rising channel both buyers and sellers agree that prices should
rise, as both are willing to buy and sell at rising prices, when buyers’
eagerness overcomes that of sellers at those pressure points.
Conservative traders would
wait with a long entry for
a retesting of the channel
bottom and a confirmation of
its support with a higher close.
Moderate traders would wait
for a return to the $49 trough
or at least to the $50 round
number, before entering a
long position.
Aggressive traders
may enter a short, with
a stop loss above the
$53 resistance of the
previous peak.

6. 17/10/2017
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Trading Strategies
Market Sequence Breakdown – Analysis & Trades
DXY Daily Chart
Conservative traders would wait
for a retest of the 3.158, former peak
support, with a higher close, before
entering a long position.
Moderate traders would
wait for a return-move and
rely on the support.
Aggressive
traders may enter a
long position now.
Connecting the Dots - How events connect and affect combined reactions
Event 1 Expectation for higher US rates cause higher demand for dollar
Event 2 China confirms global growth and higher demand for metals, priced in dollar
Event 3 The rising price of oil, priced in dollars
Event 4 Weakening pound, against the dollar
Event 5 Weakening euro, against the dollar
Event 6 Weakening Mexican peso, against the dollar
Combined Reaction – Dollar Strength

7. 17/10/2017
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The dollar advanced a fourth day, confirming the breakout of the downtrend line since April
10. An advance past the previous, August 15 trough, would suggest a bottom reversal, with a
price target of 98.00
Trading Strategies
GBPUSD Daily Charts
Conservative traders would
wait on a long entry for a
decisive upside breakout of the
neckline, which connects the
two previous highs. A decisive
breakout is established with
filters.
Moderate traders might
wait on a long position
with an upside breakout,
followed by a close and
maybe a lighter filter than
conservative traders.
Aggressive traders
might go long now,
providing their account
can afford the stop-
loss of the bottom of
the current shoulder
or the risk of losing the
position.
Risk-Reward - How to Get on the Good Side of Statistics
A common trader mistake is to cut wins (on fear of exiting on a loss) and run with
their losses – deluding themselves into believing that the price will turn around,
thereby digging an ever-deeper hole. Traders must do the opposite: cut losses (to
avoid losses...duh) and run with their wins to milk the trend, cover losses and cost of
trading and allow themselves the chance to incur a profit.
A classic risk-reward ratio is 1:3. In this way, a loss won’t take your account to the point
of no return, and a win will make up for several small losses. That means when traders
select a stop-loss, they should factor in the target profit, consider its viability, then
stick to it. Otherwise, they fall back into a negative risk-reward ratio, by increasing risk
and limiting reward probabilities. These catch up with you.

8. 17/10/2017
8
While the pound is trending up since the October flash crash in Asian trading, yesterday it
completed a bearish engulfing pattern, which followed a shooting star. Today, after retesting
yesterday’s resistance in early trading, the bears regained control and drove the price down, a
third confirmation of the price pressure at this level.
Trading Strategies
EURUSD Daily Chart
In mirror image of the DXY, the pair has broken its immediate, shorter uptrend line, since
April 10 – the same date the DXY broke its downtrend line – and is during forming a head-and-
shoulders top reversal, completed with a decisive downside breakout of its neckline.
Trading Signals
Conservative traders
would skip this trade,
as they wouldn’t go
against the main trend.
Moderate traders may
risk a short if it retests
the 1.3300 resistance.
Aggressive traders may short
right now, provide they can afford
a stop-loss above the 1.3350
resistance or risk a loss.
Conservative traders would
wait on a short for a decisive
downside breakout. See the
DXY trading strategies for
instructions on how to do this.
Moderate traders
would wait on a close
with a smaller filter,
before entering a short
position.
Aggressive traders may
enter a short with any
closing at all, beneath the
neckline.

9. 17/10/2017
9
USDMXN Daily Chart
While the uncertainty to the Mexican economy has pushed the dollar up against the Mexican
peso, the price is finding selling pressure at the last level it went down.
Trading Signals
Conservative
traders would wait
on a long position,
with a correction
and the finding of
support.
Moderate
traders would
wait on a buying
dip, before
entering a long
position.
Aggressive traders may short, after
yesterday’s inability of the bulls to close on
the day’s high, repeated today, provided
the trader may afford a stop-loss above
the 19.2962 May resistance level or risk a
loss.
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This market brief was written by Pinchas Cohen, who does not hold an investment advice
license and is therefore not written for retail investors. All investments have many risks
and can lose principal in the short and long term. The information contained herein is not
guaranteed, does not purport to be comprehensive and is strictly for information purposes
only. Anyone reading this agrees, understands and accepts that they take upon themselves all
responsibility for all their investment decisions and to do their own due diligence, and not to
hold Pinchas Cohen responsible. Pinchas Cohen does not assume any liability for any direct,
indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such
information or opinions. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice.
This document does not constitute an offer or an invitation to trade or invest. No party should
treat any of the contents herein as advice.